EPT02/07 OSL ro8 - 1st Matches - Page 4
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NovaTheFeared
United States7224 Posts
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Beamo
France1279 Posts
On February 07 2007 00:48 tfeign wrote: You're just randomnly making guesses with little basis for evidence. Winning a game may give a confidence boost, but it does not increase his chances of winning in the next game. You cited 1 example - I'm sorry but 1 example is nowhere near enough to form such a conclusion. According to you, every time Zergman wins a game, he is more likely to win his next game as well. I don't look at 1 or 2 games as evidence. I look at his last 30 zvt games, which look something like this (Most recent first): WWWLWLLLLWLLLLLWLLWWLWLWLLLWLLL According to Zergman's last 30 game history, whenever Zergman wins a game, his chances of winning the next game is 30%. Him winning a game does not increase his chances in winning the next game in any way. As a matter of fact, immediately following a win, he is much more likely to lose the next game than to win it. Your point on taking more then the last 2 games is valid and I agree that any progamer can lose to anyother on any given day. (Just look at liquibet, the best better has less then 70% bets right when a random better should be at 50%) But you can't make stats like that on the gamers, your not ion a equiprobable world (don't know if that's the right term in english). If on the last 10 games you have 50% winning ration PvZ but you've played 8 times vs Savior, that doesn't mean your a PvZ nobody. Statisitcs are fine but they don't consider the opponents' levels, the maps played and some players can have big improvements on a short time. So going to far back can also bias the stats since the player may play a lo better now then he used to. | ||
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yubee
United States3826 Posts
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NovaTheFeared
United States7224 Posts
FBH going fac/port opening. | ||
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NarutO
Germany18839 Posts
doesn't look that bad for casy now... but ... a drop could own | ||
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NarutO
Germany18839 Posts
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Beamo
France1279 Posts
On February 07 2007 00:02 ChApFoU wrote: If NaDa looses to Yarnc on Arkanoid I'll sell my balls on ebay for 3 bucks  On February 07 2007 01:35 puLs.ReADy wrote: Guys why you all put Nada over Arnc ?... Arnc will win i bet ! Your just hoping to buy something on e-bay once the match is over... | ||
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NarutO
Germany18839 Posts
pretty clever move... casy siege not ready... and wraiths can't do anyting vs bunker | ||
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NovaTheFeared
United States7224 Posts
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Ilikestarcraft
Korea (South)17727 Posts
On February 07 2007 01:22 tfeign wrote: I've come to realize for a while now that Mana likes to rag on a lot of things that are just completely nonsense, which stems from just watching 1-2 games and making a definite conclusion out of it. I remember his rag on Midas's tvz and how Midas has one of the worst tvz in progaming, and most of the forum jumped the bandwagon as well. I was one of the few defending Midas's tvz. I think since then Midas has proven that his tvz is nowhere near as bad as anyone then thought. It sounds real familiar actually. At that time Midas lost 1 game to Zergman, which was what caused Mana to rag that Midas's tvz was complete shit. I didn't follow the bandwagon and said that 1 game really did not mean anything, and that if we look at Midas's overall statistics in tvz that his tvz was actually quite good. Very similar here. Iris lost a couple of tvz's. Now people ragging on Iris and his horrible tvz without looking at the big picture. According to the big picture, although Iris's tvz is not as strong as Midas's, it's definitely not as bad as what people claim he is. No one should look at 1-2 games and form such a conclusion. You need to look at the overall picture. Midas at that time wasn't good tvz. He improved alot but Mana probably just said that cause Midas plays sloppy and makes mistakes and chokes. You go too much into statistics and stuff. Iris's tvz isn't considered cause he keeps on losing to Gorush and lost even on longinus which is considered a bad map for zvt and he lost to a total amatuer/rookie Nal_keke in survivor. Your arguments always include kespa. Kespa is not really an accurate source cause its not the present. Like when xellos was slumping but his win 2004 wcg kept him on top 10 for a while when he did nothing. And iris as you said top 10 on kespa with 50% tvz isn't performing well lately against zergs even though the maps are terran favored while zergman is performing pretty well. | ||
FakeSteve[TPR]
Valhalla18444 Posts
On February 07 2007 00:48 tfeign wrote: You're just randomnly making guesses with little basis for evidence. Winning a game may give a confidence boost, but it does not increase his chances of winning in the next game. You cited 1 example - I'm sorry but 1 example is nowhere near enough to form such a conclusion. According to you, every time Zergman wins a game, he is more likely to win his next game as well. I don't look at 1 or 2 games as evidence. I look at his last 30 zvt games, which look something like this (Most recent first): WWWLWLLLLWLLLLLWLLWWLWLWLLLWLLL According to Zergman's last 30 game history, whenever Zergman wins a game, his chances of winning the next game is 30%. Him winning a game does not increase his chances in winning the next game in any way. As a matter of fact, immediately following a win, he is much more likely to lose the next game than to win it. once again you are ignoring something that is crucially relevant to the match: IRIS SUCKS AT TVZ fantasy's post wasnt really informed either but you're clueless if you think zergman's chances in this series aren't good I'm not telling you that iris' tvz is bad according to results, or that zergman's chances are good because he won a few games. I'm telling you that based on my extensive knowledge of the players and zvt itself, that iris is going to get buttfucked because zergman is better, and I guarantee I am a better source of information than most you're going to talk to | ||
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NarutO
Germany18839 Posts
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NarutO
Germany18839 Posts
2 port wraith from casy... alot of wraiths.. fbh just tank 1 wraith | ||
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NovaTheFeared
United States7224 Posts
Casy's 2 port wraith and the tanks have allowed him to hold and his econ advantage is immense. FBH is only just now finishing his exp. | ||
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yubee
United States3826 Posts
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NarutO
Germany18839 Posts
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NovaTheFeared
United States7224 Posts
FBH moved into Casy's nat during the wraith harass. Casy seems in a bad way now as cloaked wraith from one port and tanks are hammering his nat. | ||
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yubee
United States3826 Posts
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NarutO
Germany18839 Posts
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boghat
United States2109 Posts
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