02/07 OSL ro8 - 1st Matches - Page 3

On February 07 2007 00:24 tfeign wrote:
It's funny how zergman wins a couple of zvt's and is now considered a big favorite over Iris

Or Iris losing a couple tvz's and now considered horrible tvz.

It's just silly. 2 games mean nothing. Any pro can win or lose 2 games to any other pro any day. Nobody should ever judged based on 2 games. The fact is, over the span of their last 30 games, Iris is exactly 50% tvz - doesn't fit the definition of horrible tvz by any means. And you don't consistently hold top 10 Kespa for a year by having horrible tvz especially in a periods where every league is swarmed with zergs. Zergman is 36% zvt in his last 30. Who's the clear favorite, it's quite simple.

On February 07 2007 00:35 SiZ.FaNtAsY wrote:


I agree you on this, however.....
Sometimes just 2 games do count, even one game counts to bring a player back from the dead, and let them ride the momentum to win more games. It may look like 2 loss is nothing, but that may affect the player's morale and momentum, so even though overall result is important, I think two or even one game is important too.
Again this may be a bad example since he didn't make it to round of 8 of this thread, Julyzerg after a win vs Xellos in an imporant match up in the proleagus finals helped him get a momentum and dominate Oov, the MSL survivor, the wildcards for OSL, and he showed really good performance agaisnt Casy too, almost coming for a comeback in game 1(although all these opponents besides Casy I think are slumping or sucky). Julyzerg has comeback to life in my opinion ^^.
So Iris who lost to Gorush, who has terrible builds lately, and Zergman who beat Hwasin TvZ gosu, I think this will give Zergman confidence and the momentum to beat Iris. So although what you are saying is totally right about the larger picture, you should see the smaller ones too, like the 2 silly games, because soon they will become the larger picture ^^. Sorry for making this so fucking long.

On February 07 2007 00:48 tfeign wrote:


You're just randomnly making guesses with little basis for evidence. Winning a game may give a confidence boost, but it does not increase his chances of winning in the next game. You cited 1 example - I'm sorry but 1 example is nowhere near enough to form such a conclusion.

According to you, every time Zergman wins a game, he is more likely to win his next game as well.

I don't look at 1 or 2 games as evidence. I look at his last 30 zvt games, which look something like this (Most recent first):

WWWLWLLLLWLLLLLWLLWWLWLWLLLWLLL

According to Zergman's last 30 game history, whenever Zergman wins a game, his chances of winning the next game is 30%.

Him winning a game does not increase his chances in winning the next game in any way. As a matter of fact, immediately following a win, he is much more likely to lose the next game than to win it.

On February 07 2007 01:05 Orome wrote:
The thing you're missing Tfeign is that Mana's new hobby is to rag on Iris' TvZ, and, true or not, everyone's blindly jumping on the bandwagon. :p

Zergman is the favourite for this series, but today's outcome is very uncertain.