EPTIf Flash intended on playing a map split type of game, he should have started producing tanks after his initial push was defeated.
Excellent play from Zero, but I was disappointed in Flash's gameplan.
[SWL] KT Rolster vs Woongjin Stars - Page 63
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DJONES
United States218 Posts
If Flash intended on playing a map split type of game, he should have started producing tanks after his initial push was defeated. Excellent play from Zero, but I was disappointed in Flash's gameplan. | ||
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zenMaster
Canada761 Posts
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Ideas
United States8174 Posts
On January 27 2011 11:53 lastmotion wrote: I dont think this mech play was anything near good enough to be called a effective mech play for one, T let Z get million bases and did not do enough vulture harrass too many goliaths and not enough mines imo. when you see a shitload of lings + hydras, I would assume that the logical unit composition would be vulture + tanks + mines, with enough goliaths just to shut down mutas since you have irradiate. Flash went too goliath-heavy imo and played too defensively flash did try to vulture harass but zero shut it down every time (I dont think he lost even 1 drone). but yea there werent nearly as many mines as he needed. I just want to give credit to zero for stopping vultures every time :D | ||
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lluminium
85 Posts
On January 27 2011 01:23 xarthaz wrote: Yesss Zero proving what ive known all along, zerglings are the best zerg unit! Larva heavy pure crackling late game master!! Too bad about last set Class probability says nothing about individual probabilty. The probabilty of individual events cannot be numerically evaluated. On January 27 2011 08:09 xarthaz wrote: probability of "flash winning a game" is case probability, hence numerically not evaluable. The post was an elaboration of the concept. Also, prescriptive statements are noth truth apt, hence do not imply point. Uh lets cut all these complicated terms and replace the 90% winrate Flash with a loaded coin that has 90% of landing on its head. Now assume the way I flip the coin is totally unbiased (read: a game of sc) and you take a bet on what it lands on next, will you still say: "lol its 50/50 head tail whatever"? Coz like, I fail to see why its not 90/10. And if you can actually persuade me in slightly more layman's terms why it's 50/50 I may just say fcuk it to all the probability trees I drew way back in highschool stats and take up gambling for a career. EDIT: Oh also while you are at it, try 50/50 this: Flash vs xarthaz Bo1  | ||
FlaShFTW
United States10540 Posts
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zerious
Canada3803 Posts
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xarthaz
1704 Posts
On January 27 2011 12:16 lluminium wrote: Uh lets cut all these complicated terms and replace the 90% winrate Flash with a loaded coin that has 90% of landing on its head. Now assume the way I flip the coin is totally unbiased (read: a game of sc) and you take a bet on what it lands on next, will you still say: "lol its 50/50 head tail whatever"? Coz like, I fail to see why its not 90/10. And if you can actually persuade me in slightly more layman's terms why it's 50/50 I may just say fcuk it to all the probability trees I drew way back in highschool stats and take up gambling for a career. EDIT: Oh also while you are at it, try 50/50 this: Flash vs xarthaz Bo1 Statistics(aka the subject of class probability) talks aboout a group of events. When you say the loaded coin has 90% of dropping one way, you are really referring that if it were flipped x number of times it would drop on head 0.9*x times. But the event of flipping it ONE time is not that. Flipping 1 time != Flipping x times. The statement applying probability to the single event is instead a metaphor, applying something we know with more certainty(class probability, a group of events) to something we know less about(case probability, a single event). As Mises says: "It is a metaphorical expression. Most of the metaphors used in daily speech imaginatively identify an abstract object with another object that can be apprehended directly by the senses. Yet this is not a necessary feature of metaphorical language, but merely a consequence of the fact that the concrete is as a rule more familiar to us than the abstract. As metaphors aim at an explanation of something which is less well known by comparing it with something better known, they consist for the most part in identifying something abstract with a better-known concrete. The specific mark of our case is that it is an attempt to elucidate a complicated state of affairs by resorting to an analogy borrowed from a branch of higher mathematics, the calculus of probability. As it happens, this mathematical discipline is more popular than the analysis of the epistemological nature of understanding." | ||
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hellbound
United Kingdom2242 Posts
ffs. | ||
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ZavikZyke
United States382 Posts
FUCK YEAH MANTOSS now all we need it for Yellow to win | ||
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lluminium
85 Posts
On January 27 2011 15:25 xarthaz wrote: Statistics(aka the subject of class probability) talks aboout a group of events. When you say the loaded coin has 90% of dropping one way, you are really referring that if it were flipped x number of times it would drop on head 0.9*x times. But the event of flipping it ONE time is not that. Flipping 1 time != Flipping x times. The statement applying probability to the single event is instead a metaphor, applying something we know with more certainty(class probability, a group of events) to something we know less about(case probability, a single event). Yes I understood right from the start what you are talking about - the probability of 0.90 is the Expected Value over theoretically infinite number of trials, and thus the probability of one trial succeeding cannot be attributed to exactly 0.90 (you cannot have 0.90 of a trial!). HOWEVER, what I'm pointing out is that, at the same time, you cannot then say that the single event will be 50/50 - for if 90/10 is not exactly certain, then stating it's 50/50 is more absurd, and even further away from the expected outcome. It blatantly ignores the loaded factor / past history (whatever you may call it) in that we all know Flash's skill is a level above most progamers. Heck if every single SC game is 50/50, then why does Flash gets win after win to reach this godly percentage? On the flip side of the same coin, why doesn't every progamer have a starleague title by now? We don't need maths to prove anything here; common sense both you and I have dictates that while it may not be 90/10, it is the closest we will ever get to the truth before the truth happens. In other words, while you may be right in saying that attributing the single yet happened event to 90/10 is "metaphorical", I think in my humble opinion that you are getting too caught up in the proper definitions and forgetting that the entire field of statistics ultimately has only one single purpose of existence: prediction. And if it can't be used even to predict the next SC game, then to hell with stats - there are more exact fields of mathematics out there. As Mark Twain famously said: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." My 2c. You may reply to this if you want (go for it ^^) but my fear of | ||
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