[Fantasy] PL Statistics R3

Abydos1

United States832 Posts

January 20 2009 00:04 GMT

With every team having played once in the Winners League and the increased interest in the Fantasy Proleague I decided to examine some statistics in the ongoing league. This started off with me examining team makeups in my blog which if you haven't read has lots of cool stuff:
KTF or Not
Misc FPL stats

This fantasy round the big issue in team composition was whether or not to pick KTF; I examined this in depth in my KTF or Not blog which I encourage you to read if you haven't already. I plan on examining this split as this round unfolds.

I'd like to have this thread devoted to discussion of statistics related to the current fantasy proleague round; if anyone has any interesting statistics please feel free to post them and I'll add them to the op.

Old updates
+ Show Spoiler [Jan 19th Update] +

To start this off I did a quick examination of the current coaching trends as of the first 6 matches. First, here is a graph of the average number of wins each roster spot is accumulating, the blue bars are only averaging win streaks (ie. no losses are counted) while the red bars include losses(0 wins) by players in each position.

Takes into account games up to and including Jan 19th

Examining the blue graph we can see that win streaks go down by position, probably due to the fact that players in the 4th position most likely won't have the opportunity to get as many wins. While from the red graph we can see that players sent out as the last player on their team are averaging a lot more wins than loses; only two players sent out in the 4th position have not won a game ( (T)

Sea &

firebathero).

+ Show Spoiler [Players sent out as their teams last h…] +

Notice

Sea

firebathero
(P)

Second, here is a graph showing the average fantasy point value of players sent out at each roster position by their teams.

Takes into account games up to and including Jan 19th

As can be expected teams are relying more on their expensive reliable players when they need wins. However, teams are not sending out their expensive players to lead off; rather, they are waiting to see how the match unfolds hoping to snipe the opposing teams good players. So far we have seen low point players taking high win streaks ( (P)

Movie,

GuemChi,

Luxury,

iloveoov) while some of the expensive players have yet to play a match as a result ( (T)

Flash,

fantasy,

BeSt).

Here is a graph of the number of KTF owners and non-KTF owners at each rank grouped by every 50 spots (so 1-50, 51-100, etc...)

Takes into account games up to and including Jan 19th

After only 1 match for each team there isn't much data to go on yet, we'll have to wait until further into the round to get a better analysis.

+ Show Spoiler [Jan 20th Update] +

Takes into account games up to and including Jan 20th
Top 10 cost effective players:
1. (P)

GuemChi - 7.00
2. (P)

Anytime - 4.67
3. (Z)

Luxury - 4.33
4. (T)

iloveoov - 4.00
5. (T)

Notice - 4.00
6. (T)

Memory - 3.00
7. (P)

Reach - 3.00
8. (P)

Movie - 2.67
9. (T)

BoxeR - 2.00
10. (Z)

Hyuk - 2.00

Takes into account games up to and including Jan 20th
Top 10 least cost effective players: (excluding players with 0 pts)
1. (Z)

EffOrt - 0.14
2. (T)

fOrGG - 0.17
3. (P)

Young - 0.20
4. (T)

sKyHigh - 0.20
5. (Z)

ZerO - 0.25
6. (Z)

keke - 0.25
7. (Z)

GGPlay - 0.25
8. (P)

Pure - 0.33
9. (T)

NaDa - 0.33
10. (T)

Light - 0.33

+ Show Spoiler [Full List of cost effectiveness] +

GuemChi 7.00
Anytime 4.67
Luxury 4.33
iloveoov 4.00
Notice 4.00
Memory 3.00
Reach 3.00
Movie 2.67
BoxeR 2.00
Hyuk 2.00
815 1.50
UpMagiC 1.50
free 1.20
fantasy 1.17
HiyA 1.17
AnomiA 1.00
By.Snow 1.00
Canata 1.00
Child 1.00
ClouD 1.00
DaezanG 1.00
DarLinG 1.00
Doctor.K 1.00
FireFist 1.00
fOru 1.00
GanZi 1.00
Haran 1.00
HerO 1.00
Hery 1.00
HoeJJa 1.00
HoOny 1.00
Kwanro 1.00
LuCifer 1.00
Midas 1.00
mingu 1.00
MuMyung 1.00
Nbs 1.00
oDin 1.00
Orion 1.00
pepe 1.00
PianO 1.00
Rage 1.00
Rock 1.00
SaiR 1.00
ShinekaL 1.00
Special 1.00
Stats 1.00
Sunny 1.00
XellOs 1.00
YellOw 1.00
ZergBong 1.00
Mind 0.70
Bisu 0.67
Leta 0.67
s2 0.67
Thezerg 0.67
JangBi 0.57
aTtacK 0.50
BaBy 0.50
BackHo 0.50
Dongrae 0.50
Iris 0.50
Jaedong 0.50
Killer 0.50
Lomo 0.50
Much 0.50
MVP 0.50
OversKy 0.50
RorO 0.50
sAviOr 0.50
Tempest 0.50
ToSky 0.50
BeSt 0.44
Flash 0.38
Casy 0.33
Light 0.33
NaDa 0.33
Pure 0.33
GGPlay 0.25
keke 0.25
ZerO 0.25
sKyHigh 0.20
Young 0.20
fOrGG 0.17
EffOrt 0.14
910 0.00
Action 0.00
Bogus 0.00
by.hero 0.00
Calm 0.00
Chalrenge 0.00
Chavi 0.00
Clay 0.00
Fancy 0.00
firebathero 0.00
FrOzean 0.00
go.go 0.00
great 0.00
han 0.00
HoGiL 0.00
Horang2 0.00
Hwasin 0.00
HyuN 0.00
hyvaa 0.00
Jaehoon 0.00
JiHyun 0.00
July 0.00
Juni 0.00
Justin 0.00
Kal 0.00
kkong 0.00
koala 0.00
Last 0.00
maGma 0.00
Miracle 0.00
PuMa 0.00
Pusan 0.00
Really 0.00
RuBy 0.00
Saint 0.00
SangHo 0.00
Sea 0.00
Shark 0.00
Shine 0.00
Shuttle 0.00
SoO 0.00
Spear 0.00
Stork 0.00
Suny 0.00
Tazza 0.00
Tester 0.00
ToSsGirL 0.00
Trap 0.00
TT 0.00
type-b 0.00
Yarnc 0.00

This has been a crazy start to the Winners League with (P)

BeSt and

Flash sitting near the bottom of the cost effectiveness list each going 1-1 so far while sitting at the top of the list are the unexpected picks of (P)

GuemChi,

iloveoov, and (P)

Anytime. While only 4 days in, and in this format anything can happen, so far the powerhouses everyone expected to dominate in this format have come up far short with several unexpected players going on 3 game winning streaks; who knows what will happen in the next couple days. With the expensive players not performing as expected non-KTF owners are benefiting because the extra points KTF owners had to spend aren't being used effectively. This is contributing to the 50/50 (KTF/non-KTF owners) split of players in the top 100.

The current perfect team is (costing 29 points and scoring 63 points):
(12) (T)

Leta
(3)

Movie
(3)

Anytime
(3) (Z)

Luxury
(2) (T)

iloveoov
(1) (P)

GuemChi
(5) SK Telecom T1

But for only 18 points! you could still be in 1st place with 61 points:
(3) (Z)

Luxury
(1) (P)

GuemChi
(2) (T)

iloveoov
(3) (P)

Anytime
(6) (T)

fantasy
(3) (P)

Movie
(0) KTF or ACE

After 4 days, the top 10 picked players have scored a total of 40 points (and cost a total of 52 points), not even enough to get you into first place:
1. (T)

Flash (439) - 3 pts
2. (Z)

sAviOr (381) - 1 pt
3. (Z)

Jaedong (282) - 5 pts
4. (P)

Bisu (275) - 6 pts
5. (P)

Stork (238) - 0 pts
6. (P)

free[gm] (216) - 6 pts
7. (T)

BoxeR (212) - 2 pts
8. (Z)

Luxury (203) - 13 pts
9. (P)

JangBi (183) - 4 pts
10. (Z)

by.hero (181) - 0 pts

+ Show Spoiler [Week 1] +

Takes into account all of week 1
Top 10 cost effective players for week 1
(note: 0 point players counted as 0.5 for calculation)
1. (P)

GuemChi - 7.00
2. (P)

Reach - 6.00
3. (P)

Anytime - 4.67
4. (T)

Iris - 4.50
5. (Z)

Luxury - 4.33
6. (T)

iloveoov - 4.00
6. (T)

Memory - 4.00
6. (T)

Notice - 4.00
9. (P)

Movie - 3.00
10. 14 people tied

Top 10 least cost effective players for week 1
(note: not counting players who have scored 0 points)
1. (T)

fOrGG - 0.17
2. (P)

Young - 0.20
3. (Z)

GGPlay - 0.25
4. (Z)

keke - 0.25
5. (T)

Light - 0.33
5. (T)

Sea - 0.33
5. (T)

Casy - 0.33
5. (T)

NaDa - 0.33
5. (P)

Pure - 0.33
5. (Z)

type-b - 0.33

+ Show Spoiler [Full List] +

GuemChi 7.00
Reach 6.00
Anytime 4.67
Iris 4.50
Luxury 4.33
iloveoov 4.00
Memory 4.00
Notice 4.00
Movie 3.00
Yarnc 2.00
Hyuk 2.00
BoxeR 2.00
By.Snow 2.00
Kwanro 2.00
Nbs 2.00
Orion 2.00
XellOs 2.00
ClouD 2.00
DaezanG 2.00
fOru 2.00
Sunny 2.00
YellOw 2.00
UpMagiC 1.50
815 1.50
free 1.20
fantasy 1.17
HiyA 1.17
ShinekaL 1.00
AnomiA 1.00
Canata 1.00
Doctor.K 1.00
Lomo 1.00
Midas 1.00
Much 1.00
oDin 1.00
sAviOr 1.00
Child 1.00
Clay 1.00
DarLinG 1.00
FireFist 1.00
GanZi 1.00
Haran 1.00
HerO 1.00
Hery 1.00
HoeJJa 1.00
HoGiL 1.00
HoOny 1.00
LuCifer 1.00
mingu 1.00
MuMyung 1.00
pepe 1.00
PianO 1.00
Rage 1.00
Rock 1.00
SaiR 1.00
Spear 1.00
Special 1.00
Stats 1.00
Tazza 1.00
ZergBong 1.00
Leta 0.75
ZerO 0.75
Mind 0.70
Bisu 0.67
s2 0.67
Thezerg 0.67
EffOrt 0.57
JangBi 0.57
Jaedong 0.50
aTtacK 0.50
BaBy 0.50
BackHo 0.50
Chalrenge 0.50
Dongrae 0.50
go.go 0.50
Horang2 0.50
Justin 0.50
Killer 0.50
MVP 0.50
OversKy 0.50
RorO 0.50
Shine 0.50
Tempest 0.50
ToSky 0.50
BeSt 0.44
sKyHigh 0.40
Flash 0.38
Light 0.33
Sea 0.33
Casy 0.33
NaDa 0.33
Pure 0.33
type-b 0.33
GGPlay 0.25
keke 0.25
Young 0.20
fOrGG 0.17
910 0.00
Action 0.00
Bogus 0.00
by.hero 0.00
Calm 0.00
Chavi 0.00
Fancy 0.00
firebathero 0.00
FrOzean 0.00
great 0.00
han 0.00
Hwasin 0.00
HyuN 0.00
hyvaa 0.00
Jaehoon 0.00
JiHyun 0.00
July 0.00
Juni 0.00
Kal 0.00
kkong 0.00
koala 0.00
Last 0.00
maGma 0.00
Miracle 0.00
PuMa 0.00
Pusan 0.00
Really 0.00
RuBy 0.00
Saint 0.00
SangHo 0.00
Shark 0.00
Shuttle 0.00
SoO 0.00
Stork 0.00
Suny 0.00
Tester 0.00
ToSsGirL 0.00
Trap 0.00
TT 0.00

Average point value of players sent out at each position

Average number of wins by each position in the lineup

The blue bars are only averaging win streaks (ie. no losses are counted) while the red bars include losses(0 wins) by players in each position.

While these two graphs haven't changed much in the past couple of days we can see that they are getting closer. However, coaches still prefer to send out their best players(high point cost) later in the match when they are really needed, preferring to let the other plays grab as many wins as they can without having to pull out the big guns.

Average ELO rank at each position in the lineup:

This graph just reinforces that teams are saving their better players for the latter games.

How KTF & Non-KTF teams compare in the rankings

Its actually a fairly evenly spread out distribution of KTF teams to non-KTF teams in the rankings except for the bottom 100 which has an unusual population of non-KTF owners (possibly because KTF is tied for 4th in the team rankings so far. Again, I expect KTF teams to increase their concentration near the top of the rankings when the expensive players (like (T)

Flash,

Jaedong, and (P)

Bisu) start producing.

At the end of week 1, the top 10 picked players have scored a total of 41 points, and would currently tie for 11th place with a total cost of 52 points:
Point totals for top 10 picked players:
1. (T)

Flash (439) - 3 pts
2. (Z)

sAviOr (381) - 2 pt
3. (Z)

Jaedong (282) - 5 pts
4. (P)

Bisu (275) - 6 pts
5. (P)

Stork (238) - 0 pts
6. (P)

free[gm] (216) - 6 pts
7. (T)

BoxeR (212) - 2 pts
8. (Z)

Luxury (203) - 13 pts
9. (P)

JangBi (183) - 4 pts
10. (Z)

by.hero (181) - 0 pts

Who is seeing playing time?
If we look at the average lineup appearances against each player's point cost we get the following graph:

With a lot of variance and not much correlation between the two values, however if we graph the average lineup appearances against each player's ELO rank on their team we get a much higher correlation (as can be expected):

The thing to remember here is that while some of the best players on their teams may cost 12 points others can be bought for just a couple points; remember this when looking into possible trades in the next few weeks.

+ Show Spoiler [Jan 31] +

Updated as of Jan 31st
Here are how the current point rankings currently stand with top 10, top 100, and top 500 (about 1/2) thresholds highlighted:

+ Show Spoiler [Feb 1] +

KTF and non-KTF owners in the rankings
Includes games up to and on Feb 1st

+ Show Spoiler [Feb 2] +

Includes games up to and on Feb 2nd
KTF and non-KTF owners in the rankings

Flash helped boost a lot of KTF owners in the rankings, (T)

Flash being picked twice as often by KTF owners (68% to 32%); this is more like I was expecting the rankings to show with KTF owners having the extra points to spend on expensive players that will get them the high win streaks. Tomorrow may show an even bigger shift with (Z)

Jaedong taking the stage for Lecaf (another one of the more often picked by KTF owners' players. (Compare this to yesterday's graph to see the big shift)

Average portion of a teams points which a player earns

First, sorted by the player's cost.

Second, sorted by the player's ELO rank on their team.

While the cost comparison does show the expected trend of expensive players earning more of their teams points the ELO rank comparison shows and even greater tendency with the top 3 players on a team earning almost all of the teams points.

Players like (P)

Anytime (16pts, 1 cost, 80%, 1st ELO), (T)

UpMagiC (6pts, 4 cost, 50%, 1st ELO), (Z)

Luxury (14pts, 3 cost, 50%, 2nd ELO), (T)

HiyA (17pts, 6 cost, 80%, 3rd ELO), (T)

Light (7pts, 3 cost, 80%, 3rd ELO), and (Z)

YellOw[ArnC] (10pts, 5 cost, 50%, 2nd ELO) may be the steals of this format with a lower cost but high win rate on their teams.

Most cost effective players
1. (P)

Reach - 10.00
2. (P)

GuemChi - 8.00
3. (T)

Iris - 6.00
4. (P)

Anytime - 5.33
5. (T)

Memory - 5.00
5. (Z)

sAviOr - 5.00
7. (Z)

Luxury - 4.67
8. (T)

iloveoov - 4.50
9. (T)

Notice - 4.00
9. (Z)

HoeJJa - 4.00
+ Show Spoiler [Full List] +

1 Reach 10.00
2 GuemChi 8.00
3 Iris 6.00
4 Anytime 5.33
5 Memory 5.00
5 sAviOr 5.00
7 Luxury 4.67
8 iloveoov 4.50
9 Notice 4.00
9 HoeJJa 4.00
11 Movie 3.33
12 Nbs 3.00
12 By.Snow 3.00
12 BoxeR 3.00
12 Orion 3.00
12 XellOs 3.00
12 Kwanro 3.00
18 HiyA 2.83
19 free 2.60
20 Hyuk 2.50
21 fantasy 2.17
22 ZergBong 2.00
22 by.eagle 2.00
22 DarLinG 2.00
22 HoOny 2.00
22 Stats 2.00
22 GanZi 2.00
22 pepe 2.00
22 SaiR 2.00
22 ClouD 2.00
22 YellOw 2.00
22 PianO 2.00
22 Haran 2.00
22 fOru 2.00
22 keke 2.00
22 Child 2.00
22 HerO 2.00
22 Hery 2.00
22 Special 2.00
22 mingu 2.00
22 LuCifer 2.00
22 Rock 2.00
22 FireFist 2.00
22 DaezanG 2.00
22 Sunny 2.00
22 ZerO 2.00
22 815 2.00
22 Yarnc 2.00
49 ShineKal 1.75
50 AnomiA 1.50
50 Doctor.K 1.50
50 Much 1.50
50 Midas 1.50
50 Canata 1.50
50 UpMagiC 1.50
56 Flash 1.38
57 NaDa 1.33
57 Bisu 1.33
59 Light 1.17
60 Clay 1.00
60 s2 1.00
60 aTtacK 1.00
60 Tazza 1.00
60 Killer 1.00
60 RorO 1.00
60 HoGiL 1.00
60 Thezerg 1.00
60 Dongrae 1.00
60 MVP 1.00
60 oDin 1.00
60 Lomo 1.00
60 Miracle 1.00
60 Spear 1.00
60 ToSky 1.00
60 Tempest 1.00
60 MuMyung 1.00
60 Rage 1.00
60 BaBy 1.00
60 BackHo 1.00
60 type-b 1.00
81 Mind 0.80
82 hyvaa 0.75
82 Leta 0.75
84 EffOrt 0.71
85 Pure 0.67
85 Stork 0.67
85 SangHo 0.67
88 sKyHigh 0.60
88 Jaedong 0.60
90 JangBi 0.57
91 BeSt 0.56
92 Justin 0.50
92 Chalrenge 0.50
92 go.go 0.50
92 Shine 0.50
92 Horang2 0.50
92 GGPlay 0.50
92 OversKy 0.50
99 Young 0.40
100 Casy 0.33
100 fOrGG 0.33
100 Sea 0.33
103 910 0.00
103 Action 0.00
103 Bogus 0.00
103 by.hero 0.00
103 Calm 0.00
103 Chavi 0.00
103 Fancy 0.00
103 firebathero 0.00
103 FrOzean 0.00
103 GosIFlying 0.00
103 great 0.00
103 han 0.00
103 Hwasin 0.00
103 HyuN 0.00
103 Jaehoon 0.00
103 JiHyun 0.00
103 July 0.00
103 Juni 0.00
103 Kal 0.00
103 kkong 0.00
103 koala 0.00
103 Last 0.00
103 maGma 0.00
103 PuMa 0.00
103 Pusan 0.00
103 Really 0.00
103 RuBy 0.00
103 Saint 0.00
103 Shark 0.00
103 Shuttle 0.00
103 SoO 0.00
103 Suny 0.00
103 Tester 0.00
103 ToSsGirL 0.00
103 Trap 0.00
103 TT 0.00

Perhaps a more interesting ranking to look at is the most cost effective players among the top 3 ELO ranked players on each team (since, as shown above, they're earning most of their teams points):
1. (T)

Iris - 6.00
2. (P)

Anytime - 5.33
3. (Z)

Luxury - 4.67
4. (P)

Movie - 3.33
5. (T)

HiyA - 2.83
6. (P)

free- 2.60
7. (T)

fantasy - 2.17
8. (Z)

ZerO - 2.00
8. (Z)

815 - 2.00
8. (Z)

YellOw[ArnC] - 2.00

A team with the top 6 players on this list would net you 82 points and cost only 22 points and is almost an exact copy of the current perfect team (swap out (P)

Movie for

fantasy who is ranked 7th).

+ Show Spoiler [Week 2 Trade Highlights] +

Trade Highlights:
(5) (T)

sKyHigh – 3 >>>> (2) (T)

Iris – 12 or (2) (Z)

RorO – 10

Iris has been doing well and as the top ranked player on CJ expect him to see more playing time and more wins anyone with (T)

sKyHigh should be pouncing on this offer.

(6) (T)

Sea – 5 >>>> (4) (T)

Hwasin – 1 or (4) (Z)

hyvaa – 7
This is a toss up; I project (T)

Hwasin doing slightly better but they're both close in projected rankings.

(12) (T)

Leta – 9 >>>> (6) (T)

HiyA – 22 or (5) (P)

free – 19
Another toss up; I project (P)

free as the better choice.

(10) (T)

Mind – 12 >>>> (6) (T)

HiyA – 22 or (5) free – 19
Not quite as close as the (T)

Leta trades I suggest picking up (P)

free if you have another Terran on your team.

(7) (Z)

EffOrt – 5 >>>> (3) (Z)

Luxury – 14 or (3) (P)

Anytime – 16
The (Z)

EffOrt for (Z)

Luxury trade is very enticing; expect to see (Z)

Luxury &

Flash continue carrying KTF, getting lots of playing time.

(9) (P)

BeSt – 5 >>>> (5) free – 19 or (3) (P)

Anytime – 16
If I had Best I'd be trading for (P)

free in an instant; the top ranked player on his team expect him to continue carrying Woongjin.

(6) (P)

Stork – 5 >>>> (3) (P)

Anytime – 16 or (4) (Z)

ZerO – 8
While these trades may look tempting with (P)

Stork slumping in the first two weeks, if (P)

Stork gets back in shape expect to see him perform better than these two options; if you feel that's not going to happen (P)

Anytime, 1st ranked on ACE, is seeing a lot of playing time and could be worth the trade.

(5) (P)

Kal – 1 >>>> (3) (P)

Movie – 10 or (4) (Z)

Shine[kaL] – 8
Expect (P)

Kal to see more play time and better performances in the next weeks, if you don't think this will happen the trade for (P)

Movie is tempting.

(3) (P)

Pusan – 0 or (3) (P)

Pure – 3 >>>> (0) (P)

Reach – 5
Many players were asking to get rid of the 0-3 (P)

Pusan (losses to (T)

Bogus,

YellOw[ArnC], (T)

Memory); I'd think twice before trading the top ranked MBC Protoss for (P)

Reach.

(6) (T)

fOrGG – 3 <<< >>> (6) (T)

firebathero – 1
Both the top Terran on their teams it may be worth considering trading (T)

fOrGG for the slumping (T)

firebathero with (T)

HiyA generating a lot of wins on Hwaseung Oz.

+ Show Spoiler [Week 2] +

Week 2 Stats

0 cost players counted as 0.5 for calculation
Top 10 Cost effective players
1. (P)

Reach - 10.00
2. (P)

GuemChi - 8.00
3. (T)

Iris - 6.00
4. (P)

Anytime - 5.33
5. (Z)

sAviOr - 5.00
5. (T)

Memory - 5.00
5. (T)

Notice - 5.00
5. (Z)

RorO - 5.00
9. (Z)

Luxury - 4.67
10. (T)

iloveoov - 4.50

+ Show Spoiler [Full List] +

Reach 10.00
GuemChi 8.00
Iris 6.00
Anytime 5.33
sAviOr 5.00
Memory 5.00
Notice 5.00
RorO 5.00
Luxury 4.67
iloveoov 4.50
HoeJJa 4.00
free 3.80
HiyA 3.67
Movie 3.33
HoOny 3.00
Rock 3.00
Kwanro 3.00
HerO 3.00
XellOs 3.00
BoxeR 3.00
Orion 3.00
By.Snow 3.00
pepe 3.00
Nbs 3.00
Bogus 2.50
Hyuk 2.50
keke 2.25
fantasy 2.17
by.eagle 2.00
DarLinG 2.00
ClouD 2.00
YellOw 2.00
Yarnc 2.00
815 2.00
ShineKal 2.00
ZerO 2.00
FireFist 2.00
LuCifer 2.00
mingu 2.00
Hery 2.00
Haran 2.00
Special 2.00
Sunny 2.00
DaezanG 2.00
SaiR 2.00
Child 2.00
Stats 2.00
PianO 2.00
GanZi 2.00
ZergBong 2.00
fOru 2.00
hyvaa 1.75
Bisu 1.67
NaDa 1.67
Thezerg 1.67
AnomiA 1.50
aTtacK 1.50
UpMagiC 1.50
Canata 1.50
Midas 1.50
Much 1.50
BackHo 1.50
Doctor.K 1.50
ToSky 1.50
BaBy 1.50
Lomo 1.50
Miracle 1.50
Dongrae 1.50
oDin 1.50
Killer 1.50
JangBi 1.43
Flash 1.38
Jaedong 1.30
Mind 1.20
Light 1.17
Trap 1.00
type-b 1.00
by.hero 1.00
July 1.00
Tempest 1.00
great 1.00
HyuN 1.00
Pure 1.00
Spear 1.00
HoGiL 1.00
Shuttle 1.00
Tazza 1.00
SoO 1.00
MVP 1.00
Clay 1.00
MuMyung 1.00
Rage 1.00
s2 1.00
ToSsGirL 1.00
Stork 0.83
Sea 0.83
Really 0.80
Leta 0.75
EffOrt 0.71
SangHo 0.67
sKyHigh 0.60
Young 0.60
BeSt 0.56
Chavi 0.50
fOrGG 0.50
GGPlay 0.50
Horang2 0.50
Shine 0.50
OversKy 0.50
go.go 0.50
Juni 0.50
FrOzean 0.50
Chalrenge 0.50
Last 0.50
JiHyun 0.50
Justin 0.50
TT 0.50
Casy 0.33
Hwasin 0.25
Calm 0.25
Kal 0.20
firebathero 0.17
Fancy 0.00
GosIFlying 0.00
kkong 0.00
Pusan 0.00
RuBy 0.00
Shark 0.00
Saint 0.00
Suny 0.00
Jaehoon 0.00
koala 0.00
maGma 0.00
Tester 0.00
Action 0.00
han 0.00
PuMa 0.00
910 0.00

KTF and non-KTF owners in the rankings

With

Flash,

Jaedong,

JangBi, and (P)

Bisu (all owned more frequently by KTF owners) all performing in week 2 KTF owners jumped to the top of the rankings. Expect this skew to stay around this level as long as the high cost players that non-KTF owners couldn't afford continue their performances.

Week 2 rankings

Wondering how close you are to the top; a quick glance at this graph should tell you what a couple points can do to your ranking. (That lone spike at 90 points is Nikk with his 11 point lead over the rest of the pack)

+ Show Spoiler [Feb 8th] +

Current as of Feb 8th's games
How the current trades stand:

Not many trades stand out except for the (T)

go.go <<<>>> (P)

HerO trade netting you 10 points if you traded for go.go. So far the only team trade worth taking has been WeMade FOX for ACE with ACE losing 1 less point so far this week.
Edit: forgot the Hwasin trades (Hwasin(1) >>> Reach(0) = -1 || Hwasin(1) >>> Bogus(1) = 0)

Most popular trades
Highest amount of owners taking a trade
1. (P)

Stork >>>

Anytime (17/207)
2. (T)

sKyHigh >>> (T)

Iris (14/136)
3. (T)

Sea >>>

Hwasin (10/82)
3. (P)

Pusan >>>

Reach (10/111)
3. (T)

firebathero >>> (T)

fOrGG(10/121)
6. (Z)

EffOrt >>> (Z)

Luxury (8/94)
7. (P)

BeSt >>>

free (6/54)
7. (P)

Kal >>>

Movie (6/124)
9. (P)

BeSt >>>

Anytime (3/54)
9. (Z)

EffOrt >>> (P)

Anytime (3/94)

Most taken by owners trades
Highest percentage of owners taking a trade where possible
1. (P)

Pure >>>

Reach (14.29%)
2. (T)

Sea >>>

Hwasin (12.20%)
3. (P)

BeSt >>>

free (11.11%)
4. (T)

sKyHigh >>> (T)

Iris (10.29%)
5. (P)

Pusan >>>

Reach (9.01%)
6. (Z)

EffOrt >>> (Z)

Luxury (8.51%)
7. (T)

firebathero >>> (T)

fOrGG (8.26%)
8. (P)

Stork >>>

Anytime (8.21%)
9. (P)

BeSt >>>

Anytime (5.56%)
10. (P)

Kal >>>

Movie (4.84%)

Overall 91 people made at least 1 trade with 12 making 2 trades and 1 person making 3 trades.

Week 3:

KTF vs Non-KTF owners:

KTF owners have come to dominate the rankings this week with 90% of the top 50 teams owning KTF and the top 10 consists solely of KTF owners. This is a direct result of Flash(32 pts), Jaedong (24 pts), JangBi(14 pts), Bisu(15 pts) performing very well for their teams; each of these players is owned by a higher percentage of KTF owners due to their high cost and KTF costing 0 points. The highest player without KTF currently is eagle23 sitting tied for 16th place with ( (Z)

sAviOr,

Jaedong,

Luxury,

Flash,

maGma,

Stats, CJ Entus). This is shaping up just as I predicted in my KTF or Not blog post.

Note: 0 point players calculated as costing 0.5
Top 10 Cost Effective Players:
1. (P)

Reach - 18
2. (T)

Notice - 15
3. (Z)

sAviOr - 10
4. (T)

Iris - 8
4. (P)

GuemChi - 8
6. (Z)

HoGiL - 7
6. (T)

Memory - 7
8. (Z)

Luxury - 6
8. (T)

go.go - 6
8. (Z)

HoeJJa - 6

+ Show Spoiler [Full List] +

RReach 18
Notice 15
sAviOr 10
Iris 8
GuemChi 8
HoGiL 7
Memory 7
Luxury 6
go.go 6
HoeJJa 6
Anytime 5.333333333
RorO 5
Kwanro 5
Nbs 5
Orion 5
By.Snow 5
XellOs 5
iloveoov 4.5
free 4.4
Flash 4
Movie 4
Lomo 4
FireFist 4
Haran 4
HerO 4
Hery 4
LuCifer 4
SaiR 4
Stats 4
ZergBong 4
OO[S.G] 4
HiyA 3.833333333
hyvaa 3
keke 3
815 3
Bogus 3
BoxeR 3
Clay 3
HoOny 3
pepe 3
Rock 3
Spear 3
Tazza 3
Light 2.666666667
ZerO 2.5
Hyuk 2.5
Much 2.5
Jaedong 2.4
Yarnc 2.4
NaDa 2.333333333
type-b 2.333333333
fantasy 2.166666667
JangBi 2
great 2
sKyHigh 2
Hwasin 2
ShinekaL 2
aTtacK 2
BackHo 2
Dongrae 2
Killer 2
Miracle 2
oDin 2
Tempest 2
ToSky 2
by.hero 2
Child 2
DarLinG 2
eagle 2
GanZi 2
mingu 2
PianO 2
Shuttle 2
SoO 2
Special 2
ToSsGirL 2
Trap 2
ClouD 2
DaezanG 2
fOru 2
Sunny 2
YellOw 2
Bisu 1.666666667
Thezerg 1.666666667
Really 1.6
EffOrt 1.571428571
UpMagiC 1.5
AnomiA 1.5
BaBy 1.5
Canata 1.5
Chalrenge 1.5
Doctor.K 1.5
Horang2 1.5
HyuN 1.5
Jaehoon 1.5
Justin 1.5
Midas 1.5
Shine 1.5
Stork 1.333333333
Leta 1.25
Mind 1.2
July 1.166666667
BeSt 1
SangHo 1
Sea 1
Casy 1
Pure 1
s2 1
Chavi 1
FrOzean 1
JiHyun 1
Juni 1
Last 1
MVP 1
TT 1
910 1
han 1
kkong 1
koala 1
MuMyung 1
Rage 1
RuBy 1
Young 0.8
fOrGG 0.666666667
Calm 0.5
GGPlay 0.5
OversKy 0.5
Shark 0.5
Kal 0.4
firebathero 0.333333333
Pusan 0.333333333
Saint 0.25
maGma 0
Action 0
Fancy 0
GosI[Flying] 0
PuMa 0
Suny 0
Tester 0

Top 10 Least cost-effective players
excluding the eSTRO players with 0 pts lol
1. (Z)

Saint - 0.25
2. (P)

Pusan - 0.33
3. (T)

firebathero - 0.33
4. (P)

Kal - 0.4
5. (Z)

Shark - 0.5
6. (Z)

OversKy - 0.5
7. (Z)

GGPlay - 0.5
8. (Z)

Calm - 0.5
9. (T)

fOrGG - 0.66
10. (P)

Young - 0.8

(P)

Reach still holds the top spot costing 0 points and scoring 9 points. (Z)

sAviOr has moved to 3rd generating 20 points and only costing 2 to pick up. Firebathero, Kal, and Leta are all below the 1.0 mark, costing more points than they've scored so far this round.

Trade standings:

After one week the (P)

HerO >>>

go.go trade is standing out as the best trade for owners so far with the (T)

Sea >>>

hyvaa or

Hwasin trades close behind. The only team trade worth it so far has been WeMade FOX >>> ACE with both teams losing points this week.

Top 10 Overperforming players:
1. (Z)

sAviOr - 7.63
2. (T)

Flash - 7.40
3. (T)

Notice - 6.22
4. (T)

Iris - 5.70
5. (Z)

Luxury - 5.67
6. (P)

free - 5.59
7. (T)

HiyA - 5.07
8. (P)

Anytime - 4.70
9. (P)

Reach - 4.33
10. (T)

go.go - 3.78

Top 10 Underperforming players:
1. (T)

firebathero - -5.04
2. (T)

Leta - -4.78
3. (P)

BeSt - -4.67
4. (T)

Mind - -4.22
5. (T)

fOrGG - -4.07
6. (P)

Kal - -4.04
7. (Z)

Saint - -3.52
8. (P)

SangHo - -3.11
8. (T)

Sea - -3.11
10. (P)

Young - -3.07

Poll of the week:
+ Show Spoiler [Week 1 Poll] +

+ Show Spoiler [Week 2 Poll] +

+ Show Spoiler [Week 2 Trades] +

Poll: Do you find these stats interesting/useful/insightful?
(Vote): Yes
(Vote): No

Random theoretical team highlights:
+ Show Spoiler [Week 1 Teams] +

Teams as of end of week 1
All CJ:
(2) (T)

Iris - 9
(3) (P)

Movie - 9
(7) (Z)

EffOrt - 4
(1) (T)

Memory - 4
(1) (Z)

Orion - 2
(1) (P)

Nbs - 2
(4) CJ Entus - 8
(19) points for an all CJ team generating 38 points to put you tied for 29th

Cheap 1st:
(1) (P)

GuemChi - 7
(1) (T)

Memory - 4
(1) (T)

Notice - 4
(2) (T)

iloveoov - 8
(2) (T)

Iris - 9
(3) (P)

Anytime - 14
(0) Air Force ACE - 4
(10) for just 10 points you could be leading the pack with a score of 50 (or throw in two more points for the 3 point (Z)

Luxury netting you another 9 points).

Highways

Australia6098 Posts

January 20 2009 00:57 GMT

Nice stats.

I kinda think KTF at 0 points might actually screw up fantasy PL imo. They should be around 3-4 points imo.

I hope a non-KTF player wins fantasy PL though.

Hot_Bid

Braavos36369 Posts

January 20 2009 01:01 GMT

On January 20 2009 09:57 Highways wrote:
Nice stats.

I kinda think KTF at 0 points might actually screw up fantasy PL imo. They should be around 3-4 points imo.

I hope a non-KTF player wins fantasy PL though.

We can only make valuations based on what previous results were. Since this is the first season of WL, we can't just arbitrarily assign a value to KTF. Sure, maybe 1 or 2 points is more accurate, but there was no way to know for sure (this was before KTFs opening match win over Samsung). It's kind of like saying "Anytime will screw it up" last round because he didn't play for Lecaf due to going to the army and only cost 1. We can only go by the stats from the previous round.

Abydos1

United States832 Posts

January 20 2009 01:18 GMT

On January 20 2009 10:01 Hot_Bid wrote:

Show nested quote +

And this is essentially what fantasy PL is about; looking for those players/teams that are worth more than their point value. Only 40 people picked (T)

Leta because of his high cost he'd have to perform extremely well to make it worth picking him this round. Yes KTF being 0 points is probably one of the more extreme cases but its inevitable this will happen.

Manit0u

Poland17182 Posts

January 20 2009 01:55 GMT

This statistics look awesome. Big thanks for that.

Abydos1

United States832 Posts

January 20 2009 20:27 GMT

Updated with cost effectiveness of players as of last nights games. Note that other statistics are still a day old since there's not much change in them.

Edit: Oops, was a day behind on the cost effectiveness stats; updated to take last night into account.

semioldguy

United States7488 Posts

January 20 2009 23:01 GMT

Just like your blogs... this is very cool!

The least cost effective players will probably even out a bit more (though some of them will probably stay there) just because the high cost players haven't had so many chances to earn their points expected of them yet.

talismania

United States2364 Posts

January 20 2009 23:35 GMT

teehee I have 3/10 of the top ten most cost effective.

we'll see how long it lasts though.

Abydos1

United States832 Posts

January 20 2009 23:42 GMT

Yeah, obviously these rankings are going to be very unstable to start off with but should start to stabilize soon.

sixghost

United States2096 Posts

January 21 2009 02:38 GMT

#10

On January 20 2009 10:01 Hot_Bid wrote:

Show nested quote +

I think you guys definately should have made an exception in this case. Winner's league format just favors ktf so much more than the regular proleague, even adding 2-3 more points would have made a huge difference. It's pretty obvious they are grossly undervalued considering they are on about 50% of fantasy rosters.

Abydos1

United States832 Posts

January 21 2009 02:47 GMT

#11

On January 21 2009 11:38 lgdDante wrote:

Show nested quote +

So, if they're grossly undervalued why aren't they on every team? This is just the way this has to work; you can't just assign arbitrary values to a team especially with no experience doing a fantasy pl this way. The values are all calculated based on performances in the previous rounds. Yes, perhaps some sort of algorithm could deduce how a team would perform in an all-kill format based on a normal PL round but we have nothing to judge that by; thus the only fair option is to judge them based on last round. As I've said before, Fantasy PL is not about picking the best players, its about picking the most cost effective players for your team. That could be players who were slumping and you expect to go on a hot streak, or in this instance a team that didn't perform well in the previous format but has a better chance in the new all-kill format. (Z)

sAviOr was in a slump and thus only cost 2 points, many people expect him to come out of the slump and more than make up for his cheap cost thus you see him on a large amount of the teams; this is just how this works, get used to it.

What I would like to see if possible in future fantasy PLs is a wider point difference in the scores that teams generate, as it is the amount of points you're using buying a team doesn't give you that big of an advantage from lower cost teams because of the small point differential compared to the large point differentials between players.

semioldguy

United States7488 Posts

January 21 2009 02:56 GMT

#12

I actually don't think they will do as well by the end of the round as most other teams (though we will have to see in six weeks and I could be wrong)

It's still only the first week. A lot can happen still.

We can't just make an exception once, because then people will argue about us not making exceptions elsewhere or that we shouldn't have made the exception in the first place. The cost system is completely objective. The line has to be drawn somewhere, and that line is between objectivity and subjectivity. If you think KTF should have cost more, then they should have done better last round.

Yes KTF is undervalued, I'd agree, they still were not the most popular overall pick though. Looking at the current top 10 teams, only 3 of them have KTF. Which is a lower percentage than the overall existence of KTF on all rosters. So the best teams may overcome the KTF pick anyway. Just because they were undervalued does not make them the absolute best choice in the end.

semioldguy

United States7488 Posts

January 21 2009 02:59 GMT

#13

As far as team's costs... their costs are actually based upon the same ratios that players costs are determined by. So a team costing 5 points earned the same points last round as the average player costing 5 points. The same is true of 0-point costs and 2-point costs, etc.

d_so

Korea (South)3262 Posts

January 21 2009 03:05 GMT

#14

On January 21 2009 11:47 Abydos1 wrote:

Show nested quote +

hold on. cost effectiveness is nice and all but it can't always get you wins. plus, as long as zero is not calculable in determining cost effectiveness, cost effectiveness will always be a misleading stat

semioldguy

United States7488 Posts

January 21 2009 03:15 GMT

#15

Greatest cost-effectiveness will be predominantly among the lower cost players. A successful team will include several of these lower cost, cost-effective players, but will also need a few higher cost players that can be consistent in putting out a large number of points.

Stats can almost always be misleading if they stand alone. But taking statistic on several different things can allow for deductive reasoning and making calculated decisions. Cost-Effectiveness is a factor that can be included in picking you team, but there are other factors and statistics to look at to. It is the combination of all these that would be most beneficial.

The individual stats are still interesting and necessary to the overall process though.

Abydos1

United States832 Posts

January 21 2009 03:16 GMT

#16

On January 21 2009 11:59 semioldguy wrote:
As far as team's costs... their costs are actually based upon the same ratios that players costs are determined by. So a team costing 5 points earned the same points last round as the average player costing 5 points. The same is true of 0-point costs and 2-point costs, etc.

The problem I see though is that the difference between 1st and 10th place teams (with only 12 teams) is only 16 points (30-14 (note excluding the outliers of ACE & KTF with 2 & 1 pts respectively)) while the difference between the top 10 players was Leta with 63 and firebathero with 31 and most of the teams were within the 14-20 point range. There's just so many options for players that it doesn't seem worth it paying for the team you think will get 30 points when instead you can better use those points to look for players that are going to turn out great and you're not losing many points from choosing an average team.

Examing last rounds stats the average & standard deviations of teams vs players is as follows:
Teams avg = 14.02 σ = 8.95
Players avg = 17.17 σ = 11.25

while there isn't much difference in the deviations if we throw out the outliers of ACE, KTF, and Leta we end up with
Teams avg = 20.3 σ = 5.70
Players avg = 13.65 σ = 10.43

Thus teams are going to end up a lot closer together making it more profitable to search for those cheap players than spending points on an expensive team. While the average team score is higher, you can more easily get away with a cheap team and still score decent in that category. One thing to remember is you have to pick one and only one team which affects the priorities here.

Abydos1

United States832 Posts

January 21 2009 03:20 GMT

#17

On January 21 2009 12:15 semioldguy wrote:
Greatest cost-effectiveness will be predominantly among the lower cost players. A successful team will include several of these lower cost, cost-effective players, but will also need a few higher cost players that can be consistent in putting out a large number of points.

Stats can almost always be misleading if they stand alone. But taking statistic on several different things can allow for deductive reasoning and making calculated decisions. Cost-Effectiveness is a factor that can be included in picking you team, but there are other factors and statistics to look at to. It is the combination of all these that would be most beneficial.

The individual stats are still interesting and necessary to the overall process though.

Yeah, I'm not saying that cost effectiveness alone makes a good team but for a lot of your players you are looking for cheap cost effective players. As semioldguy said you still need dependable players that are going to generate a lot of points. Statistics can be misleading so please don't just assume something from any of these statistics and please try to look at them in the bigger picture of things. I'm trying to provide some interesting analysis here and obviously this isn't an exact science.

semioldguy

United States7488 Posts

January 21 2009 03:29 GMT

#18

I agree for the most part about the team costs relating to priorities and risk factors. It is something that will be considered as the round goes on for future references.

doubleupgradeobbies!

Australia1187 Posts

January 21 2009 03:51 GMT

#19

On January 21 2009 12:20 Abydos1 wrote:

Show nested quote +

I think ideally, you will want to make 2/3/4 low cost, efficient picks, then fill out the rest of your points with high cost consistent players (who score alot but arn't necessarily great value).

Because if you check the best possible team, at any stage after the first few weeks last season, it will always be around the 29-30 point cost mark. Simply because on average, high cost players DO score more than low cost players, and there usually arn't enough low cost players who are efficient enough to be able to pick an entire team worth of them.

The way I make picks is: First look through the list from the bottom up, starting at the 0 cost players all the way to the 5 cost players, noting players who I think are noticeably undercosted.

From the list(i usually only find about 8-10 of these), analyse the teams they are on, their work schedule, form, etc, and place them in order of best value(obviously in your opinion).

Taking the top 6 of these, I replace the ones that are worst value of these 6 progressively with high cost players I think will not slump until i fill up my 30 points cost.

So the amount of high cost players in my team will depend entirely on how expensive the players on top of my 'most efficient' list are, eg if they are 1/2 cost players i will have more high cost players, if they are mostly 4/5 cost players i will have less high cost players in my team.

Of course this round, due to my bisu/skt autopick costing a fuckton, I didn't have any points to chose even a single proper ace outside of bisu

sk`

Japan442 Posts

January 21 2009 03:57 GMT

#20

Well I jumped like 300 spots so I'm happy :D

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