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[ASL10] Ro24 Preview Pt 3: In Full Bloom

Forum Index > BW General
14 CommentsPost a Reply

[ASL10] Ro24 Preview Pt 3: In Full Bloom

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
Graphics byv1
September 19th, 2020 11:18 GMT
ASL Season 10 Banner
After some excellent games last week, we head into the final week of the Ro24! We had a few small surprises last week but no major upsets like the first two groups, so the last week is up in the air!

Ringing Bloom, while fairly standard in layout, has posed some problems for players who haven't quite mapped out all of the potential openings and attack pathways, but Eclipse seems to be the far harder hurdle to overcome. From late DTs to odd hydra timings, Eclipse has delivered weird and wonky games that have upended the predictions. Will that trend continue?
Group C by Allyssa Grey
Show Of Experience

I actually like this group a lot, and if you've been keeping up with ASL over the last few seasons, this group might look eerily familiar. In Season 8 during nOOB's debut performance, he was in a Ro24 group with both Larva and Rush, so in a way this is rematch of sorts. nOOB's surprise win over Mong to knock the ASL veteran out of the tournament made some splashes, but his otherwise straightforward macro style didn't stand out enough to make him impressive, so we'll see if two seasons of practice have elevated his play.


(Z)Larva vs (P)nOOB

These two played the opening match in their group the last time they met too, so we have a bit of rematch. Previously on Multiverse, Larva was able to shut down the middle of the map and play his famous turtle style to completely overwhelm the poor amateur Protoss player, but playing on a more standard map like Ringing Bloom might give nOOB more of an opportunity to fall back on his somewhat aggressive macro play with off-kilter builds. There isn't much to go off when trying to determine nOOB's level of play; he began tearing up the biweekly Have At You tournaments organized by Schamtoo in late 2018 before briefly peaking in ASL8 the following year. The only notable appearances in solo tournaments this year have been in the CasterMuse Narak Starleague, where he didn't really preform well.

On the other hand, Larva seems to finally be back from his two year slump following his killer performance in ASL4. While he has been involved in several ASLs since and always been a contender, he fell from a Top 5 player to a Ro24 regular, so it's really nice to see him back in action and playing more confidently. He's been fairly active in the month of September (though not as much as he has in the past), and as of writing, he's amassed 76 total spon matches with a solid 51% win rate with most of his games played against Protoss and Terran.

I give Larva the edge here, especially if it goes to a scrappy game due to an unorthodox build from nOOB.


(P)Stork vs (T)Rush

Oh my god, I can't wait to watch this one. Rush has very slowly worked his way from Ro24 dropout to legitimate opponent in the last few years off the back of his new and improved PvT play. He can't rely on his monster TvT in this group, but he does have a respectable 56% winrate vs Protoss in spon matches to fall back on.

At the same time, Stork's PvT has begun climbing back towards its peak again in the age of carriers. With 41 spon matches in September, his PvT sits at 59%, and I feel really confident about his chances against Rush. Ringing Bloom isn't spectacular for carriers from what we've seen so far, but Stork's ability to control large armies and storm tanks coupled with his rather large build repatoire means he can still take a macro game. Rush will have to rely on some of the more aggressive 1-1-1 builds or vulture openings to keep the pressure on Stork and prevent him from confortably getting to macro mode.

This will be a good match however it goes, but I predict Stork to take the win here.


The winners match will also be a good one to watch, especially considering how good Larva's ZvP is in comparison to Stork's PvZ. If both players are playing at their best, I would expect Larva to win, but you can't always count on that in a live setting. My (fangirl) gut says to go for Stork. The last two matches are likely to result in either Larva or Rush advancing, but nOOB could produce another upset with a clever build. Statistics and predictions don't really matter anymore (as we've already seen in this season), but all things considered, Rush should win the losers match and then go on to crush Larva on Polypoid in the final match.

All in all, this is a great group with games that could go any way at the slightest hint of weakness. I look forward to this group and seeing how they set the tone for the Ro16!

(P)Stork and (T)Rush advance to the Ro16!
Group F by TaardadAiel
Dragon Slayers
The last group of the Ro24 features two prominent names in (T)Sharp and (Z)Action, the return of (P)free of the Six Dragons and the ASL debut of (Z)beast, who attracted attention recently with his great performance in the ASTL.

Sharp will face beast in the opening match of the group on Ringing Bloom. After a peak in form, finishing second in KSL season 2, he is now in the shadow of Light in the Terran pecking order, but he’s still a formidable opponent with his smart tactics and considerable experience. TvZ, however, has historically been his worst matchup and his online results since August reflect that with a meager 42% win rate and a losing record against virtually all top Zerg players. He tends to produce notoriously scrappy games, showcased most prominently in his 2-3 loss against Action in ASL8. An epic win against hero in the KCM race survival did demonstrate he’s not a pushover, but he quickly crumbled against his next Zerg opponent that week as larva destroyed him with early aggression.

Beast, on the other hand, is not in much better shape. His record in sponsored matches is not too impressive - a 48.9% since August. Most of his games have been against lesser opponents, too; all in all, stats tell a bleak tale, except for a 2-1 record against his opponent on Tuesday. He did perform admirably in the ASTL, though, winning all of his matches... but none were against Terran. Map stats also favor Sharp so far (56.6%), albeit from a relatively small sample size.

All in all, Sharp appears to be the favourite here, even largely because of his offline experience. This season doesn’t lack surprises so far, true, and a bo1 is notoriously unpredictable, but from what I’ve seen, I’d put my money on Sharp. If he manages to keep himself safe from his adversary’s aggression or if the game goes the usual scrappy way, I'd say he's the favourite, although not by a wide margin.

Action vs free is another matter, though. The wily Zerg is one of the strongest ZvPers in the current age, both offline and online, the latter evidenced by a very respectable 64.9% sponmatch win rate. On offense and defence, in early game or when the macro machines get going, with specialized cunning builds or in a stock-standard match, he’s extremely dangerous and is one of the worst opponents for a Protoss player - even a Dragon - on his return to the premier tournament scene.

All that notwithstanding, free is not to be underestimated. Rusty as he might still be, PvZ has historically been a strong suit of his. Online he's managed to just keep his head above the water with a 50% record in a somewhat Zerg-dominated meta. As Action is a favourite sponmatch opponent for pretty much everyone, the two have faced each other a total of 14 times and Action is in the lead with a 8-6 score - showing that while free is at a disadvantage, he’s not a complete outsider.

Still, I’d feel safe betting on Action. Both statistics and current shape are heavily in his favour and even though Ringing Bloom seems to give an edge to Protoss so far with a 55.8% win rate, this is not by any means insurmountable. Surprises can occur, especially against a member of the Six Dragons, but free still has not regained his shape - and one needs every tiny advantage he can get against Action.

Assuming both above predictions are correct, Action is going to contend with Sharp for the top spot of the group. Everything considering Sharp’s TvZ stands true in this match. Add in his dismal record against his opponent online (11-30) and Action’s penchant to tailor builds based on specific weaknesses, a win for the Terran yogi is unlikely here. Even with an apparent map disadvantage stats-wise, betting on Action to qualify first is reasonably safe.

The losers’ match would pit beast versus free. Taking into account the disparity in experience and free’s historically strong PvZ, the veteran Protoss is at a definite advantage here. The two met in the Seoul qualifiers and free defeated beast handily with a 2-0 score. Online the picture is even grimmer for the Zerg player as he lost all four games they played. Now, beast did defeat Bisu 2-0 to qualify for the ASL, but considering Bisu’s very underwhelming offline performance, I wouldn’t read too much into it. I expect free to win.

Should the above prove to be true, a final match between Sharp and free would take place on Polypoid. In stark contrast to his TvZ, Sharp’s TvP is top-notch - evidenced by a very respectable 62.5% sponmatch win rate and a history of convincing displays in premier touraments. His advantage is compounded by free’s negative win rate versus Terran, sitting at 47.8% since August and the fact that he's still a bit rusty. Unless Sharp underperforms, I expect a solid win for him.

(Z)Action and (T)Sharp qualify for the Ro16!
Writers: Allyssa Grey, TaardadAiel
Editor: BLinD-RawR
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TL+ Member
prosatan
Profile Joined September 2009
Romania7998 Posts
September 19 2020 12:11 GMT
#2
Agree with group F !
As for group C I went for Larva and Stork!

Also, there isn't a LB for group F

Nice writeup overall
Lee JaeDong Fighting! The only church that illuminates is the one that burns.
TornadoSteve
Profile Joined March 2018
1017 Posts
September 19 2020 12:38 GMT
#3
Been raining non stop today, and the staff at the store had the iq of a fried shimp, wife tilted me af, so ill throw a negative and (not so) constructive reply

Fed up of seeing the same usual suspects keep advancing to the ro16 without having a single chance in a million to win the whole tournament. Although Rush its ok, cuz the guy keep and keep improving, slowly but surely. But im talking about Sharp mostly, the guy is boring to watch, not so good also, but he keep advancing almost everytime. Hope this season will be different, cuz i would like to watch more or free and even beast. What im trying to say is that i agree with you on group F, unfortunately.
Been rooting for Stork since the stone age, but why exactly? Prolly because he refuses to retire, being slow but clever, and yeah ok pretty fun to watch especially pvt. But he wont win so lets go with larva and another guy
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5214 Posts
September 19 2020 14:48 GMT
#4
Group F was the group of death, I am just noticing. Free being back and having a T in the group will hopefully give him chances.

Also, Stork~~~~ I hope he makes it deep this time too. Up to this week he had an amazing form in sponmatches and in ASL9 he played fantastic as well. Wonder which side of his will take command tomorrow.
The heart's eternal vow
Zeronova
Profile Joined September 2020
54 Posts
September 19 2020 15:02 GMT
#5
Group C Larva and Stork

Group F Action and Beast. I don’t know why but I don’t trust Sharp. I don’t disagree with the prediction though.
Drfilip
Profile Joined March 2013
Sweden590 Posts
September 19 2020 15:05 GMT
#6
I saw that a new bet was available, group F. Group C have benn up or quite some time, but they had the exact same contenders. The liquibets group F is wrong.
Random Platinum EU
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50118 Posts
September 19 2020 15:10 GMT
#7
On September 20 2020 00:05 Drfilip wrote:
I saw that a new bet was available, group F. Group C have benn up or quite some time, but they had the exact same contenders. The liquibets group F is wrong.


yeah no worries, the new bet is up
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
TL+ Member
Kuks
Profile Joined March 2018
43 Posts
September 19 2020 17:20 GMT
#8
Stork definately getting out first. This season is looking really good for him. He has renewed ambition, he taking care of himself and practicing hard. Go Stork!!!
Sabu113
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States11047 Posts
September 19 2020 18:56 GMT
#9
All I want for christmas is a Sharp PvT in the round of 16. Man plays the most entertaining style.

Hoping for Larva but not optimistic for group C despite the writeup. I was a Stork fan back in the day but I think he had better results than his performances last season.

Action is a regular but I just dont remember him.

Biomine is a drunken chick who is on industrial strength amphetamines and would just grab your dick and jerk it as hard and violently as she could while screaming 'OMG FUCK ME', because she saw it in a Sasha Grey video ...-Wombat_Ni
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
834 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-19 19:19:04
September 19 2020 19:18 GMT
#10
On September 20 2020 03:56 Sabu113 wrote:
Action is a regular but I just dont remember him.

He almost eliminated Flash last season, I think he's pretty memorable.
Anyway, hoping the predictions are right on these groups. Rush especially I'd like to see come into his own on stage.
AttackZerg
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States7454 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-19 20:57:05
September 19 2020 20:56 GMT
#11
I am so excited free is back. IMO the best late-game PvZ player in history. That series with Jaedong he won with mass archon-reaver style was incredible. Have never seen a protoss manage lategame vs Z as well as him.

I just watched Beast play in kcm race survival, He is a threat to every terran not named Flash or Light.
+ Show Spoiler +
He made 2 hat muta look imba vs scan


He is still much sloppier than top zergs but he is a monster.

The world would be a better place with Free in the ASL. Larva ... Larva has been so good and so smart for so long, it is just a matter of time before he streaks through a league, until then, it is a coinflip which Larva shows up.

I only liked action back in the days of 3 hat muta into 4 hat hive/defiler/lurker/scourge/ling. Since those days are gone, and since + Show Spoiler +
Soulkey
advanced, I don't care if he makes it or not.


Thanks for the write-up!
Freezard
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
Sweden1011 Posts
September 19 2020 21:49 GMT
#12
and the ASL debut of (Z)beast


beast played in the last ASL no?
TaardadAiel
Profile Joined May 2017
Bulgaria750 Posts
September 19 2020 22:23 GMT
#13
Oh my, he did.

A dumb mistake on my part. I literally scrolled ASL 1 through 8 to see if I missed an appearance and thought I remembered last season too well. Obviously not.
WriterReV hwaiting!
Zeronova
Profile Joined September 2020
54 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-22 20:38:25
September 22 2020 20:38 GMT
#14
+ Show Spoiler +
I called it for Larva but was surprised how poorly Stork performed.

For group F Action was a lock as expected. Beast choked so bad against Free. Free needs to up his PvZ to the current meta. His zealot play was good but not every Zerg it's going to gift you Hydra and drone kills like beast did. Sharp choked bad
Even worse than I expected. He is far too reliant on surprising people with vultures IMO.
TornadoSteve
Profile Joined March 2018
1017 Posts
September 23 2020 05:07 GMT
#15
Honestly though, Sharp and Stork are just stealing RO24 seats from the qualifiers at this point. If the young guns are still improving like they currently are, (and im sure they will), i am confident that we will see big changes in brood war very soon.
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