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The various rankings people are giving intrigued me, so I went ahead and played with some ELO numbers from TLPD. The spreadsheet I worked up is here on GoogleDocs.
Method: I took the ELO of each team's top 6 players. Why 6? Five would probably have done about as well, but I think 6 represents better what a coach will think of as his choices for a given match. Seven might be even better, but by the time we hit even five, let alone six or seven, most teams are down to bad players. So six represents players with a realistic chance of winning if played wisely.
I then took the average ELO for all players and average ELO for each 1-6 spot, and found each player's difference from overall average and average for his spot. I then got three team statistics: average player ELO, average player ELO difference from total average, and the value of the team's ELO spread. Results:
Average ELO, all players: 2133
Average ELO, Ace: 2245
Average ELO, #2: 2170 (-75)
Average ELO, #3: 2143 (-27)
Average ELO, #4: 2108 (-35)
Average ELO, #5: 2082 (-26)
Average ELO, #6: 2054 (-28)
The gap between ace and #2 is, obviously, far and away the biggest on most teams. Some of this is a function of Flash, Jaedong, and Bisu, and some of it is true for everybody.
The resulting ranking:
8. ACE -66 var. 110. One player above average, five below, all players below role average by at least 25 points.
7. STX -20 var. 135. One player above average, five below, one player above role average (#6 hyvaa +13).
6. WJN -8 var. 255. Ace-#3 players above average and role average, #4-6 players below average and role average.
5. SAM +3 var. 123. Two players above average, four below, Ace-#3 below role average by 14- but #4-6 above by 15+.
4. CJ +16 var. 208. Four players above average, two below, all players above role average except #6 sKyHigh -28.
3. K8 +19 var. 196. Four players above average, two below, all players above role average.
2. KT +21 var. 221. Three players above average, three below, all players above role average.
1. SKT +36 var. 282. Three players above average, three below, all players above role average except #4 Hyuk -2.
My belief that STX really is bad has been reinforced, although they're probably not as bad as ACE if I'm being honest here. KT by ELO is much better than I thought, mainly because I always forget how good Mind really is. Woongjin and Samsung have really weird breakdowns: Stars because their 1-3 are so good and 4-6 are so bad (note the huge variance), KHAN because the entire lineup is basically mediocre (note the tiny variance).
General take-aways: ELO variance is basically useless without context: large variance (@200) basically means you have an S-class ace (Bisu, Flash, Jaedong, Hydra, ZerO). Smaller variance (@100) means different things: for ACE it means everybody is bad but not remarkably so. For KHAN, it means everybody is pretty good but not really S-class. And for STX, it indicates a totally mediocre team (I'm being polite here: Bogus is better than I remembered, but the rest of the team is completely eh).
If I get really ambitious tomorrow I'll work out deviations and stuff and see if that gives any more information but right now it's 1 in the morning, lol.
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Very little possible games this year, saddens me 
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Mind on KT means serious Terran reinforcement. Thanks for the write-up. Can't wait for the season to start
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Dude wth??? i missed part 2 LOL.
Edit: no wait i saw part 2 missed part 1!!!
Edit2: ok im a retard.. i didn't missed either...
Great job nice analysis.
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There is no way at all that KT is finishing 5th, even with the ace change. CJ is not going to win, they've been deep forever and it doesn't matter. The finals will likely be SKT1 and KT again. CJ as always is a contender as is team 8. Realistically Stars should do well too, Light went 18-6 last rounds of regular pl and Soulkey went 20-6 and that's not even including Zero. I fear Khan will go 5th or 6th. Ace and Stx are definitely the weakest, and I feel that's the only thing you've gotten right.
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On November 24 2011 22:03 Subversive wrote:
There is no way at all that KT is finishing 5th, even with the ace change. CJ is not going to win, they've been deep forever and it doesn't matter. The finals will likely be SKT1 and KT again. CJ as always is a contender as is team 8. Realistically Stars should do well too, Light went 18-6 last rounds of regular pl and Soulkey went 20-6 and that's not even including Zero. I fear Khan will go 5th or 6th. Ace and Stx are definitely the weakest, and I feel that's the only thing you've gotten right.
Khan > KT this year definitely. Khan was bad the last 2 years because of a lack of zerg. Not just zerg snipers but also zerg practice partners. Now with Shine + Roro + revived Jangbi Khan will be scary.
Let's not forget that for some time Stork + Jangbi were the #1 and #2 protoss in the world. Sure Stork has lazied off a bit, but it's hard to tell when he'll pick himself back up. Now that Jangbi is back though I think this is the strongest #1 and #2 in the league, better than Bisu Fantasy or Hydra Leta or Jaedong Sea.
Mind is okay... I guess.
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On November 24 2011 23:56 gen.Sun wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2011 22:03 Subversive wrote:
There is no way at all that KT is finishing 5th, even with the ace change. CJ is not going to win, they've been deep forever and it doesn't matter. The finals will likely be SKT1 and KT again. CJ as always is a contender as is team 8. Realistically Stars should do well too, Light went 18-6 last rounds of regular pl and Soulkey went 20-6 and that's not even including Zero. I fear Khan will go 5th or 6th. Ace and Stx are definitely the weakest, and I feel that's the only thing you've gotten right. Khan > KT this year definitely. Khan was bad the last 2 years because of a lack of zerg. Not just zerg snipers but also zerg practice partners. Now with Shine + Roro + revived Jangbi Khan will be scary. Let's not forget that for some time Stork + Jangbi were the #1 and #2 protoss in the world. Sure Stork has lazied off a bit, but it's hard to tell when he'll pick himself back up. Now that Jangbi is back though I think this is the strongest #1 and #2 in the league, better than Bisu Fantasy or Hydra Leta or Jaedong Sea. Mind is okay... I guess.
Stork went 12-12, not exactly stellar. Jangbi went 10-7. As for the zerg lineup, Shine is in a massive slump. And Roro is just a solid 50-50 zerg, much as Great always was. Khan is marginally stronger with Jangbi back.
KT has been champion for 2 years running. Even with no ace match, Flash and Stats > Stork Jangbi. And they have Mind who went a strong 10-7 (the same record as Jangbi). And KT's supporting cast isn't bad. Hoejja for example went 12-4.
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On November 24 2011 23:56 gen.Sun wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2011 22:03 Subversive wrote:
There is no way at all that KT is finishing 5th, even with the ace change. CJ is not going to win, they've been deep forever and it doesn't matter. The finals will likely be SKT1 and KT again. CJ as always is a contender as is team 8. Realistically Stars should do well too, Light went 18-6 last rounds of regular pl and Soulkey went 20-6 and that's not even including Zero. I fear Khan will go 5th or 6th. Ace and Stx are definitely the weakest, and I feel that's the only thing you've gotten right. Khan > KT this year definitely. Khan was bad the last 2 years because of a lack of zerg. Not just zerg snipers but also zerg practice partners. Now with Shine + Roro + revived Jangbi Khan will be scary. Let's not forget that for some time Stork + Jangbi were the #1 and #2 protoss in the world. Sure Stork has lazied off a bit, but it's hard to tell when he'll pick himself back up. Now that Jangbi is back though I think this is the strongest #1 and #2 in the league, better than Bisu Fantasy or Hydra Leta or Jaedong Sea. Mind is okay... I guess.
When did Stork and Jangbi ever become 1 and 2? It used to be Bisu/Stork, Bisu/Jangbi, Stork/Kal, and now Bisu/Jangbi.
Especially in proleague, where only one of them is allowed to be good at any point in time.
And best 1/2 punch right now is either Bisu/Fantasy, Flash/Stats, or Jaedong/Sea.
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I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs.
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On November 25 2011 01:22 gen.Sun wrote:
I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs.
Stats has been solid for a long time. I have no idea where you get him being overvalued. His 'stats' and record speak for themselves.
"I actually watch every game" LOL. Good for you! Way to sound more pretentious. I guess that makes you an expert :D. Yeah Stork could repeat some of his better times. Or he might not. The same way Jangbi is by no means guaranteed to keep performing.
I'll say it again. KT are champions and they just added a very solid terran to their already strong line. Khan (as much as I love them) weren't even top 3 last time around. The addition of 2 average zergs (one of them underperforming) and the removal of one, is not game changing. They're one of the shallower teams at the moment. CJ is stronger, and so are SKT1 and KT. Possibly team 8 as well.
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I really think STX is better than people are giving them credit for. I mean, Dear has shown some really good builds in the past and if he could improve his management he could be a good player in the future. Shuttle, Bogus, and Calm are also good, proven players. There fifth player will be a Zerg, who can still take games off of just about any player. Really it just depends on how much preparation the Zergs other than Calm put into preparing for the matchups that will dictate how well STX will do. And possibly the development of Dear.
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I'd say it's difficult to make too many predictions: it's three months since anyone's played any serious games. I'd put more value on historical performance than last year's R6/playoffs at this point; maybe bump last year's rookies a little (one reason I think KHAN will do well).
On November 25 2011 01:36 Subversive wrote:
I'll say it again. KT are champions and they just added a very solid terran to their already strong line. Khan (as much as I love them) weren't even top 3 last time around. The addition of 2 average zergs (one of them underperforming) and the removal of one, is not game changing. They're one of the shallower teams at the moment. CJ is stronger, and so are SKT1 and KT. Possibly team 8 as well.
KT are champions but, while they got a spark in the playoffs, they made the playoffs almost entirely on the strength of WL performances: their normal-format record was abysmal and this year they've lost the ability to play Flash twice. Mind is a solid A-class player but not Flash, so given the format that's actually a downgrade. Wooki should be a good replacement for Violet (and if he comes back in R2 that will be a huge boost), and CH is a nice addition, at least in theory (R5&6 last year he wasn't that great, but mediocre is better than bad). Still, this is KT: Flash (+Mind), a good Protoss (maybe 2), and a mediocre Zerg line.
I don't say KHAN's necessarily better, but they're not much worse. Stork and Jangbi are still a nice 1-2: both better than Mind if not as good as Flash. Shine and RorO are both usually a decent bit above average – I don't put too much stock in a slump from three months ago. The KHAN weak point is Terran, which will be decent, but "good" will depend on how much TurN and Reality have improved – and this is completely ignoring Brave and Grape, who both looked good. KHAN to me seems like a complete team in a way KT doesn't.
Obviously, we'll see how the season goes.
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On November 25 2011 01:36 VGhost wrote:I'd say it's difficult to make too many predictions: it's three months since anyone's played any serious games. I'd put more value on historical performance than last year's R6/playoffs at this point; maybe bump last year's rookies a little (one reason I think KHAN will do well). Show nested quote +On November 25 2011 01:36 Subversive wrote:
I'll say it again. KT are champions and they just added a very solid terran to their already strong line. Khan (as much as I love them) weren't even top 3 last time around. The addition of 2 average zergs (one of them underperforming) and the removal of one, is not game changing. They're one of the shallower teams at the moment. CJ is stronger, and so are SKT1 and KT. Possibly team 8 as well. KT are champions but, while they got a spark in the playoffs, they made the playoffs almost entirely on the strength of WL performances: their normal-format record was abysmal and this year they've lost the ability to play Flash twice. Mind is a solid A-class player but not Flash, so given the format that's actually a downgrade. Wooki should be a good replacement for Violet (and if he comes back in R2 that will be a huge boost), and CH is a nice addition, at least in theory (R5&6 last year he wasn't that great, but mediocre is better than bad). Still, this is KT: Flash (+Mind), a good Protoss (maybe 2), and a mediocre Zerg line. I don't say KHAN's necessarily better, but they're not much worse. Stork and Jangbi are still a nice 1-2: both better than Mind if not as good as Flash. Shine and RorO are both usually a decent bit above average – I don't put too much stock in a slump from three months ago. The KHAN weak point is Terran, which will be decent, but "good" will depend on how much TurN and Reality have improved – and this is completely ignoring Brave and Grape, who both looked good. KHAN to me seems like a complete team in a way KT doesn't. Obviously, we'll see how the season goes.
Sure, I don't disagree with that. I just don't agree that KT is doomed because of the removal of the ace format (and destined to be overtaken by 4 teams). It's also gone from bo7 back to bo5 which is good for teams that aren't ultra deep (like KT).
Edit: And as for the winners league point, KT still battled through SKT1, CJ and Stars to win the Championship in a non WL format.
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On November 25 2011 01:36 Subversive wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2011 01:22 gen.Sun wrote:
I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs. Stats has been solid for a long time. I have no idea where you get him being overvalued. His 'stats' and record speak for themselves. "I actually watch every game" LOL. Good for you! Way to sound more pretentious. I guess that makes you an expert :D. Yeah Stork could repeat some of his better times. Or he might not. The same way Jangbi is by no means guaranteed to keep performing. I'll say it again. KT are champions and they just added a very solid terran to their already strong line. Khan (as much as I love them) weren't even top 3 last time around. The addition of 2 average zergs (one of them underperforming) and the removal of one, is not game changing. They're one of the shallower teams at the moment. CJ is stronger, and so are SKT1 and KT. Possibly team 8 as well.
Lol. Sorry if I came across as pretentious. I was just drawing attention to our different methods of rating players. I admit my fanboyism isn't very rigorous, I prefer the subjective.
The main thing I want to point out is that KT are champions because of the Ace match, because of WL. Without those KT would not have been champions and look weaker than Khan.
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On November 25 2011 01:36 tryummm wrote:
I really think STX is better than people are giving them credit for. I mean, Dear has shown some really good builds in the past and if he could improve his management he could be a good player in the future. Shuttle, Bogus, and Calm are also good, proven players. There fifth player will be a Zerg, who can still take games off of just about any player. Really it just depends on how much preparation the Zergs other than Calm put into preparing for the matchups that will dictate how well STX will do. And possibly the development of Dear.
They're good proven players who seem to be in a deep slump. Will they get out of it?
Remember that their coach hates them so much he tried to get rid of all of them. It doesn't feel like a good team environment.
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On November 25 2011 01:22 gen.Sun wrote:
I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs.
You're horrific. Did you forget that Hoejja beat Stork convincingly?
I find it hilarious that you're like "Oh Stork will bounce back" and then say "Oh Hoejja just fluked!". That's a two way streak, I can equally say "Oh Stork will continue to suck" and "Oh Hoejja will continue to be a solid zerg" and my statement, if anything would hold more weight simply based on their performances over the past half year
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On November 25 2011 12:21 Dakkas wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2011 01:22 gen.Sun wrote:
I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs. You're horrific. Did you forget that Hoejja beat Stork convincingly? I find it hilarious that you're like "Oh Stork will bounce back" and then say "Oh Hoejja just fluked!". That's a two way streak, I can equally say "Oh Stork will continue to suck" and "Oh Hoejja will continue to be a solid zerg" and my statement, if anything would hold more weight simply based on their performances over the past half year
And his statement holds more weight based on performance over a period longer than the past half year...
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On November 25 2011 12:21 Dakkas wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2011 01:22 gen.Sun wrote:
I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs. You're horrific. Did you forget that Hoejja beat Stork convincingly? I find it hilarious that you're like "Oh Stork will bounce back" and then say "Oh Hoejja just fluked!". That's a two way streak, I can equally say "Oh Stork will continue to suck" and "Oh Hoejja will continue to be a solid zerg" and my statement, if anything would hold more weight simply based on their performances over the past half year
Sure it might. I'm basing my opinion based on my understanding of those 2 player's overall skill.
Predicting the future, how does it work?
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On November 25 2011 01:22 gen.Sun wrote:
I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs.
this just sounds like you have a preconceived opinion and you're trying to use whatever it is you're using to make them fit in your argument.
KT are the current two-time repeat champs. ace match or not, that doesn't count for anything?
speaking of flukes, if you want to discredit hoejja's form, i can say well jangbi just had a good osl run he was shit for a long time before that.
not to mention hoejja is still an up-and-comer, along with much of KT's roster. you do realise flash and stats will be 20 next year?
edit: missed the above posts saying basically what i said. oh well, never mind, dude. i forgive you for your blasphemy.
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EPT
