It's no secret that we're about to see many changes in this upcoming season. For the last three years, we witnessed the pinnacle of Brood War's status in Korean progaming: beginning with the 2008-2009 season, Proleague was a year-round extravaganza. The MSL and OSL witnessed the legendary clashes of Flash, Jaedong, and fantasy, interspersed with random Zergs and the redemption of Jangbi.
If the last three years have been legendary, it's probably the case that that 2008-2009 season was the golden age. Luxury's MSL run and sAviOr's last hurrah – cheaters they may have been but they played some fine Starcraft. The fantasy-Jaedong rivalry. Some of the best games of all time: Flash vs UpMagic. The Bisu vs Iris series. JangBi's epic cheese against Calm in the playoffs. sKyHigh's RAK to win the inaugural Winners League title. I could go on, but I'm sure you have your favorites – so I'll let you mention them.
The 2009-2010 season was the year of Jaedong vs Flash. Proleague was suitably excellent, and KT took the title in convincing fashion, but it was really all about the Starleagues. Jaedong and Flash met in three straight MSLs and (going back to the Winter 2008 season) one or the other reached the final in five straight OSLs, winning four titles between them (EffOrt nabbed the fifth) and, in Korean Air 2, finalizing the question of dominance in Flash's favor. Other storylines? There... but not as gripping. Call it the silver age.
And last year... last year was our gilded age. The hype was there: 7-game matches, double-Winners League. The story-lines were there: fantasy and then Jangbi breaking out of the Kong line. But for one reason or another it was clear that reality was fading: SC2 has continued to grow, stealing at least international viewers; KeSPA's done good and bad, but seems too rigid to adapt quickly to a new esports environment. MBCGame, especially, had trouble finding sponsors, and that entire side of the Brood War equation folded, leaving an orphaned MSL and players without a team – as did the (unsurprising) closing shop of WeMade and the (surprising) disbandment of OZ.
Now we face the new season, and if last season was a final stunt, a sales pitch made to attempt to continue a high level of success, this year is all about cut-backs due to acceptance of reality. Back to five-game matches. No more Winners League. A reduced schedule. And, of course, we now only have eight teams, and one without a proper sponsor.
When I first started this review, it seemed simple enough: review last season, note potentially hot players, those falling off, any important trades, and offer some predictions. Even the team cut-backs didn't do much but make that job harder.
Then the format came out.
To quote MGoBlog, "Chart? Chart."
To make this perfectly clear, the last three years of Proleague have been dominated by Flash, Jaedong, and Bisu. Apart from 2008-2009, when Leta was at least within shouting distance, no one else has challenged that trio for the "most wins" crown. The "most games" category, while similarly unique to the big three, was more similar: most aces play about the same number of games, some are just better than others.
Also, the chart above needs some qualification. Half the "possible games" last year came from Winners League, one third of the season. The years before that, a third of "possible games" came from Winners League, which was only one fifth of the season.
Even accounting for that, though, it is crucial to note that even top aces don't play all the games they theoretically could. Proleague format was 44 matches per team in 2008-2010 seasons, and 36 per team last years. Out of a potential 88 (or 72) games, most ace players never hit more than 40 games or so, and only the top of the top reached 50-60. This was most true in 2008-2009, with preset lineups, but continued in the following seasons: between 3-0 and 0-3 results not involving an ace player, occasional wild decisions to send not-Jaedong for ace, and meaningless matches with lineups like sHy-Dear-Perfectman-Killer, the aces didn't play anything like all the games they "could" have. (Yes, OZ was the primary transgressor of common sense, and Jaedong still played more games than anybody.) I would estimate that a team's ace would play a second game in the ace match maybe a quarter of the time (even assuming there was only one ace on a team), and miss 1 or 2 matches a round.
Ace matches as such are gone, now; I expect players to continue to not play for a match or two each round, more depending on the team. So I think we're looking at 30-35 games this year for the top players. Look for your winningest player to have just over 30 wins this year: yes, half of Bisu's record last year.
While the effect on the ace players is a fascinating exercise in prognostication, the real question remains what we can expect from the teams. I can say, right now and with perfect confidence, that CJ Entus and KeSPA Eight will make the playoffs. But the other two spots are thrown into confusion. SK Telecom T1 always makes a strong case, but Woongjin and Samsung have worked for a couple years now with deeper teams, even if they don't have the S-class ace. That should benefit them in the new format. I will say now that STX and ACE look like the worst teams, but I could regret that prediction at the end of the year. I don't think it's outrageous to say that KT Rolster is most hurt by the changes, but Flash is still Flash, and they've put some pieces together as well.
Here's a fun fact: if you have three players who win 60% of their games, and you play them 1-2-3 every match, you should 3-0 about 22% of your matches. If you have a Flash or Bisu who can manage 70%, it's more like 25%. This is basically how SKT has tried (and mostly succeeded) in winning over the past few years: play Bisu, fantasy, and BeSt a lot – win a quarter of your games right there. Then play the hot hand to mop up if necessary; if there are still problems, send one of FBB out for ace. The complication, of course, is that this year there's no "ace match": just a fifth set.
ACE is basically KHAN's second-stringers right now: great, firebathero, once-a-promising-rookie M18M, and the terrible Chavi. Then there's last year's hero ggaemo, veterans Kal, Iris, Much, Orion, and Rock (that's in order of descending skill) – and one-time potential saviors Piano (for Woongjin's Terrans) and Peace (for MBCGame's Zergs).
I don't predict great things for them this year. ACE's players are a bunch of guys who could beat anyone but usually don't. Best of seven was great for them because they could take their lumps from the A-class and steal wins beating up rookies. Best of five will make that harder, because they'll face a higher concentration of better players. But in a twist of fate, no-ace helps ACE: they don't have anybody at the top of the A-class, but there are few deeper teams right now simply because the flyboy team accumulates veterans. CJ Entus Captain: Leta Protoss: Horang2, Movie, Nbs, Snow Terran: BByong, Rush, sKyHigh Zerg: EffOrt, herO[jOin], Hydra, Where
Projected Finish: 1st
CJ was scary-deep last year. Now they have EffOrt back. With EffOrt, Hydra, Movie, Snow, and Leta, they can field five players who are all starleague contenders; then they add Horang2 and sKyHigh. There won't be enough games to go around for this team. Even the backups are decent: Food5, BByong, Rush, and Where impressed in limited action last year. herO[join] and Nbs are more or less competent as well.
On the other hand, they have Songduri, who may have played the single worst game of the season last year. That... probably won't make a difference. If CJ doesn't finish first, it will be an upset in its own right. Crazy Eighth [KeSPA-managed 8th team, basically OZ + MBCGame] Captain: Jaehoon Protoss: Tyson, Neo.G_Sang Terran: BaBy, Sea, Speed Zerg: Ever)Z(Killer, Jaedong, Ryul2
Projected Finish: 3rd
Your Mission: You may have one of Jaedong, Flash, and Bisu. You must have three bad players or rookies. Construct a team which can win proleague. The Result: this team. Sure, I would probably have picked Flash or Bisu. But when I can make a good argument that any of Sea, Killer, or BaBy are a number 2? These are all ace-caliber players. Even the Protoss line isn't bad. If we still had ace matches, I'd pick them to finish #1, maybe #2. But we don't, so I can't; I feel like there are a few too many not-quite-clutch players on the team. (That said, they win at least one of the playoffs. How could they not?) KT Rolster Captain: Reach Protoss: Anyppi, Stats, Wooki Terran: BarrackS, Flash, Mind, Suny Zerg: Action, Crazy-Hydra, HoeJJa, Perfective
Projected Finish: 5th
KT is an interesting team this year. Flash is coming back from successful surgery. Violet may or may not return. KT's number two, Stats, in good but prone to dumb mistakes at unfortunate times. The roster, like always especially the Zerg line, is stuffed with good but unreliable players: Action, Mind, Crazy-Hydra. I think the key to KT's season will be the play of three newer names: Wooki, BarrackS, and Perfective. If they can improve enough to take starting spots or even put enough pressure on the current A-team, KT should outperform my prediction. Otherwise, I feel like even with all the talent, KT will suffer from not being able to play Flash twice. Samsung KHAN Captain: Stork Protoss: Brave, Grape, JangBi Terran: Reality, Sharp, TurN Zerg: Juni, oDin, RorO, Shine
Projected Finish: 4th
KHAN is one of the giants, but the last few years they've been a bit disappointing. Still – possibly motivated by great's departure – they've finally addressed their biggest weakness: Zerg. Importing the disbanded WeMade's team "not on MY anti-team" duo of Shine and RorO, KHAN is probably the second most complete team in Proleague after CJ, assuming Reality and TurN live up to last year. SK Telecom T1 Captain: s2 Protoss: BeSt, Bisu, By.Sun, Paralyze Terran: Fantasy, Ssak, yeOngJae Zerg: Alone, Hyukn.Die_soO, Sacsri
Projected Finish: 2nd
On the one hand, T1 has a Protoss lineup that could probably go 5-0, with a little luck, against most teams. On the other hand, they basically don't have a Terran lineup beyond fantasy, who is streaky. On the other other hand, their Zergs are better than we give them credit for, and include T1's only real pickup, Sacsri (mostly notable in my mind for being a surprise player in the last GOM tournament). On the other other other hand, this is really still just Bisu's team. On the other other other other hand (I got an octopus to help me), they've been to the last three Proleague finals, winning in 2009, and won the Winners League last year. I think CJ's roster puts them past everybody else, but otherwise I'd simply assume T1 takes the first spot again. Second will have to do. STX SouL Captain: Shuttle Protoss: Dear, mini, Trap Terran: Bogus, Classic, Last Zerg: Calm, hero, hyvaa, Modesty
Projected Finish: 8th
STX collects B-teamers and castoffs like its their job. Apart from Bogus, Clam, and maybe Shuttle, nobody on this team belongs in a proleague lineup. Sure, hyvaa and Modesty have fluked their way into OSL appearances, but does anybody think they're actually good?
I feel like I'm being pessimistic here. ZerO, Soulkey, and Light are good enough to keep Woongjin in contention all year. But when you look closely, I might almost be being optimistic. Stars loaded up on Protoss in the offseason, but it seems more like desperation than a plan: Flying, GuemChi, and sHy have all impressed at different times, but none have been consistent at all. I still think the key will probably be free's play.
If there's one thing Woongjin should have done to stay in contention this year, it was get another Terran. There's a whole list that might have been available if management had been proactive: Midas, Ruby, HiyA are the headliners. Even one of them would make a difference. Midas retired now, and HiyA's said he's not going to be playing, but I look at this as a failure on Woongjin's part.
Anyway, it will work out however it works out. Woongjin fighting!
I'm scratching my head thinking why most people consider ACE to be above STX. Shuttle and Bogus have been better than Kal and Firebathero, Calm is much better than GGaemo. A brief glimpse at Elo numbers, and STX beat ACE--
Nice write up, if you want to fix Killer's TLPD, juse edit the name in the brackets to Killer. Killer
I think the top 4 race is going to be between KT, SK, CJ and T8 as well. It should be a close race this year between the top 4 teams. The bottom 4 will most likely have KHAN and Stars miles ahead of the STX and ACE.
T8 will probably get more players once they find a sponsor to give them some more depth as well.
i agree with the respective "ages" of starcraft, last year definetly had a "falling out" feeling to it, I hope we can revive some hype for the 2011-2012 season!
i personally think that CJ, team8, and SKT are all very close in depth but team8 will edge out the other two because they have more depth in zerg and terran despite having so few members; and jaedong and sea are so consistently winning in proleague (often 60%+ winrates in PL) that i have no doubt that they can let killer, baby, tyson, and / or jaehoon pick up an extra win or two amongst themselves.
CJ seems really strong though as well, i wouldn't be surprised if they got first this season either. however, i think SKT will suffer similarly like KT to the new format change, because of the shenanigans they used to be able to pull with bisu/fantasy (and best sometimes vs Flash) in ace format. unlike KT and OZ, who had aces who were extremely solid at all matchups, there were multiple aces that they could abuse on specific maps and matchups to play mindgames with the aces of other teams.
Disagree on KT's projected finish: Flash-Stats-Mind is a pretty brutal 1-2-3 punch, and then Wooki/Perfective/Hoejja/CrazyHydra in the last two slots should pick up at least one win.
They're weaker without the Ace format, but they're by no means JaedongOZ status.
When I TLPD-ize "killer" it defaults to Killer (the BW one) every time. At first I thought I had somehow customized it, but I can't get the default to switch back, so I'm not sure why it's defaulting that way for you and not me. Weird... In any case, if you right click the TLPD button you can choose the database you want it to reference now. Cool stuff.
Nice number-crunching by the way, a nice thorough analysis of where teams stand right now. Just re-read parts one and two, good series of articles here.
Nice read, I expect KT to finish above 5th place though, and I'm really curious about where the Stars will finish. I wonder if Free's surgery will impact his performance (maybe his injury was a real contributing factor to his terrible performance last season).
On November 24 2011 05:44 BrownBear wrote: Disagree on KT's projected finish: Flash-Stats-Mind is a pretty brutal 1-2-3 punch, and then Wooki/Perfective/Hoejja/CrazyHydra in the last two slots should pick up at least one win.
They're weaker without the Ace format, but they're by no means JaedongOZ status.
You can say the same thing for other teams like: KHAN have Stork, JangBi, Reality 3 punch + TurN, BravE, Sharp, Shine, Roro Stars have ZerO, Soulkey, Light 3 Punch + Free, Hon_sin and Flying
KT terribly underrated. Mind and Hoejja (late season form) are pretty beastly in their own right. As number 3 and 4, they'd do very well against other teams' 3 and 4 save CJ and KesPA. Action is hit-and-miss but still a viable number 5. I mean, let's look at the top 5 of each team.
Honestly, placed side-by-side, KT holds its own against the other monster teams. Flash is definitely the best no.1 you can get (save Bisu). Stats can beat pretty much any no.2 (but isn't really a favorite against them). Mind will get destroyed by Effort and Best but would do really well against every other no.3. KT tapers off at the 4 and 5 position but they don't go below the average 4 and 5.
Only team 8 and CJ are scary at the 4th and 5th position. In fact, SKT's chances really go down at that point (save for Sun, whose promise keeps SKT fans hopefully in this proleague format, and soO when vs Protoss).
But yeah, poor STX
EDIT: Forgot to mention Wooki, whom I believe will be number 3 in KT by the end of the season.
EDIT again:
As a consequence of what I typed, I figured I could rank the teams' top 5 per position based on projected skill/performance, and then just take off from there and average them up.
1. SKT - Fantasy 2. CJ - Leta 3. 8 - Sea 4. KT - Stats (might be controversial since statistics have him at no.1, but without WL, his Stats are gonna go down) 5. KHAN - Jangbi 6. Stars - Light 7. ACE - FBH 8. STX - Calm
CJ - (4,2,1,2,1) - Average of 2 KT - (1,4,6,3,6) - Average of 4 SKT - (2,1,5,3,2) - Average of 2.6 8 - (3,3,2,1,1) - Average of 2 KHAN - (6,5,4,3,5) - Average of 4.6 Stars - (5,6,3,6,4) - Average of 4.8 STX - (7,8,7,5,7) - Average of 6.8 ACE - (8,7,8,4,3) - Average of 6
From this (debatable) list, CJ and Team 8 would go 1st/2nd, SKT 3rd, KT 4th, KHAN 5th, Stars a close 6th, ACE 7th, and, sadly, STX 8th. This isn't too far off from how I feel the season could unfold, without taking into account a few dark horse players like Wooki who could change the make-up of KT overnight if he replaced Action or Hoejja.
The various rankings people are giving intrigued me, so I went ahead and played with some ELO numbers from TLPD. The spreadsheet I worked up is here on GoogleDocs.
Method: I took the ELO of each team's top 6 players. Why 6? Five would probably have done about as well, but I think 6 represents better what a coach will think of as his choices for a given match. Seven might be even better, but by the time we hit even five, let alone six or seven, most teams are down to bad players. So six represents players with a realistic chance of winning if played wisely.
I then took the average ELO for all players and average ELO for each 1-6 spot, and found each player's difference from overall average and average for his spot. I then got three team statistics: average player ELO, average player ELO difference from total average, and the value of the team's ELO spread. Results:
Average ELO, all players: 2133 Average ELO, Ace: 2245 Average ELO, #2: 2170 (-75) Average ELO, #3: 2143 (-27) Average ELO, #4: 2108 (-35) Average ELO, #5: 2082 (-26) Average ELO, #6: 2054 (-28)
The gap between ace and #2 is, obviously, far and away the biggest on most teams. Some of this is a function of Flash, Jaedong, and Bisu, and some of it is true for everybody.
The resulting ranking:
8. ACE -66 var. 110. One player above average, five below, all players below role average by at least 25 points. 7. STX -20 var. 135. One player above average, five below, one player above role average (#6 hyvaa +13). 6. WJN -8 var. 255. Ace-#3 players above average and role average, #4-6 players below average and role average. 5. SAM +3 var. 123. Two players above average, four below, Ace-#3 below role average by 14- but #4-6 above by 15+. 4. CJ +16 var. 208. Four players above average, two below, all players above role average except #6 sKyHigh -28. 3. K8 +19 var. 196. Four players above average, two below, all players above role average. 2. KT +21 var. 221. Three players above average, three below, all players above role average. 1. SKT +36 var. 282. Three players above average, three below, all players above role average except #4 Hyuk -2.
My belief that STX really is bad has been reinforced, although they're probably not as bad as ACE if I'm being honest here. KT by ELO is much better than I thought, mainly because I always forget how good Mind really is. Woongjin and Samsung have really weird breakdowns: Stars because their 1-3 are so good and 4-6 are so bad (note the huge variance), KHAN because the entire lineup is basically mediocre (note the tiny variance).
General take-aways: ELO variance is basically useless without context: large variance (@200) basically means you have an S-class ace (Bisu, Flash, Jaedong, Hydra, ZerO). Smaller variance (@100) means different things: for ACE it means everybody is bad but not remarkably so. For KHAN, it means everybody is pretty good but not really S-class. And for STX, it indicates a totally mediocre team (I'm being polite here: Bogus is better than I remembered, but the rest of the team is completely eh).
If I get really ambitious tomorrow I'll work out deviations and stuff and see if that gives any more information but right now it's 1 in the morning, lol.
Dude wth??? i missed part 2 LOL. Edit: no wait i saw part 2 missed part 1!!! Edit2: ok im a retard.. i didn't missed either... Great job nice analysis.
There is no way at all that KT is finishing 5th, even with the ace change. CJ is not going to win, they've been deep forever and it doesn't matter. The finals will likely be SKT1 and KT again. CJ as always is a contender as is team 8. Realistically Stars should do well too, Light went 18-6 last rounds of regular pl and Soulkey went 20-6 and that's not even including Zero. I fear Khan will go 5th or 6th. Ace and Stx are definitely the weakest, and I feel that's the only thing you've gotten right.
On November 24 2011 22:03 Subversive wrote: There is no way at all that KT is finishing 5th, even with the ace change. CJ is not going to win, they've been deep forever and it doesn't matter. The finals will likely be SKT1 and KT again. CJ as always is a contender as is team 8. Realistically Stars should do well too, Light went 18-6 last rounds of regular pl and Soulkey went 20-6 and that's not even including Zero. I fear Khan will go 5th or 6th. Ace and Stx are definitely the weakest, and I feel that's the only thing you've gotten right.
Khan > KT this year definitely. Khan was bad the last 2 years because of a lack of zerg. Not just zerg snipers but also zerg practice partners. Now with Shine + Roro + revived Jangbi Khan will be scary.
Let's not forget that for some time Stork + Jangbi were the #1 and #2 protoss in the world. Sure Stork has lazied off a bit, but it's hard to tell when he'll pick himself back up. Now that Jangbi is back though I think this is the strongest #1 and #2 in the league, better than Bisu Fantasy or Hydra Leta or Jaedong Sea.
On November 24 2011 22:03 Subversive wrote: There is no way at all that KT is finishing 5th, even with the ace change. CJ is not going to win, they've been deep forever and it doesn't matter. The finals will likely be SKT1 and KT again. CJ as always is a contender as is team 8. Realistically Stars should do well too, Light went 18-6 last rounds of regular pl and Soulkey went 20-6 and that's not even including Zero. I fear Khan will go 5th or 6th. Ace and Stx are definitely the weakest, and I feel that's the only thing you've gotten right.
Khan > KT this year definitely. Khan was bad the last 2 years because of a lack of zerg. Not just zerg snipers but also zerg practice partners. Now with Shine + Roro + revived Jangbi Khan will be scary.
Let's not forget that for some time Stork + Jangbi were the #1 and #2 protoss in the world. Sure Stork has lazied off a bit, but it's hard to tell when he'll pick himself back up. Now that Jangbi is back though I think this is the strongest #1 and #2 in the league, better than Bisu Fantasy or Hydra Leta or Jaedong Sea.
Mind is okay... I guess.
Stork went 12-12, not exactly stellar. Jangbi went 10-7. As for the zerg lineup, Shine is in a massive slump. And Roro is just a solid 50-50 zerg, much as Great always was. Khan is marginally stronger with Jangbi back.
KT has been champion for 2 years running. Even with no ace match, Flash and Stats > Stork Jangbi. And they have Mind who went a strong 10-7 (the same record as Jangbi). And KT's supporting cast isn't bad. Hoejja for example went 12-4.
On November 24 2011 22:03 Subversive wrote: There is no way at all that KT is finishing 5th, even with the ace change. CJ is not going to win, they've been deep forever and it doesn't matter. The finals will likely be SKT1 and KT again. CJ as always is a contender as is team 8. Realistically Stars should do well too, Light went 18-6 last rounds of regular pl and Soulkey went 20-6 and that's not even including Zero. I fear Khan will go 5th or 6th. Ace and Stx are definitely the weakest, and I feel that's the only thing you've gotten right.
Khan > KT this year definitely. Khan was bad the last 2 years because of a lack of zerg. Not just zerg snipers but also zerg practice partners. Now with Shine + Roro + revived Jangbi Khan will be scary.
Let's not forget that for some time Stork + Jangbi were the #1 and #2 protoss in the world. Sure Stork has lazied off a bit, but it's hard to tell when he'll pick himself back up. Now that Jangbi is back though I think this is the strongest #1 and #2 in the league, better than Bisu Fantasy or Hydra Leta or Jaedong Sea.
Mind is okay... I guess.
When did Stork and Jangbi ever become 1 and 2? It used to be Bisu/Stork, Bisu/Jangbi, Stork/Kal, and now Bisu/Jangbi.
Especially in proleague, where only one of them is allowed to be good at any point in time.
And best 1/2 punch right now is either Bisu/Fantasy, Flash/Stats, or Jaedong/Sea.
I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs.
On November 25 2011 01:22 gen.Sun wrote: I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs.
Stats has been solid for a long time. I have no idea where you get him being overvalued. His 'stats' and record speak for themselves.
"I actually watch every game" LOL. Good for you! Way to sound more pretentious. I guess that makes you an expert :D. Yeah Stork could repeat some of his better times. Or he might not. The same way Jangbi is by no means guaranteed to keep performing.
I'll say it again. KT are champions and they just added a very solid terran to their already strong line. Khan (as much as I love them) weren't even top 3 last time around. The addition of 2 average zergs (one of them underperforming) and the removal of one, is not game changing. They're one of the shallower teams at the moment. CJ is stronger, and so are SKT1 and KT. Possibly team 8 as well.
I really think STX is better than people are giving them credit for. I mean, Dear has shown some really good builds in the past and if he could improve his management he could be a good player in the future. Shuttle, Bogus, and Calm are also good, proven players. There fifth player will be a Zerg, who can still take games off of just about any player. Really it just depends on how much preparation the Zergs other than Calm put into preparing for the matchups that will dictate how well STX will do. And possibly the development of Dear.
I'd say it's difficult to make too many predictions: it's three months since anyone's played any serious games. I'd put more value on historical performance than last year's R6/playoffs at this point; maybe bump last year's rookies a little (one reason I think KHAN will do well).
On November 25 2011 01:36 Subversive wrote: I'll say it again. KT are champions and they just added a very solid terran to their already strong line. Khan (as much as I love them) weren't even top 3 last time around. The addition of 2 average zergs (one of them underperforming) and the removal of one, is not game changing. They're one of the shallower teams at the moment. CJ is stronger, and so are SKT1 and KT. Possibly team 8 as well.
KT are champions but, while they got a spark in the playoffs, they made the playoffs almost entirely on the strength of WL performances: their normal-format record was abysmal and this year they've lost the ability to play Flash twice. Mind is a solid A-class player but not Flash, so given the format that's actually a downgrade. Wooki should be a good replacement for Violet (and if he comes back in R2 that will be a huge boost), and CH is a nice addition, at least in theory (R5&6 last year he wasn't that great, but mediocre is better than bad). Still, this is KT: Flash (+Mind), a good Protoss (maybe 2), and a mediocre Zerg line.
I don't say KHAN's necessarily better, but they're not much worse. Stork and Jangbi are still a nice 1-2: both better than Mind if not as good as Flash. Shine and RorO are both usually a decent bit above average – I don't put too much stock in a slump from three months ago. The KHAN weak point is Terran, which will be decent, but "good" will depend on how much TurN and Reality have improved – and this is completely ignoring Brave and Grape, who both looked good. KHAN to me seems like a complete team in a way KT doesn't.
On November 25 2011 01:36 VGhost wrote: I'd say it's difficult to make too many predictions: it's three months since anyone's played any serious games. I'd put more value on historical performance than last year's R6/playoffs at this point; maybe bump last year's rookies a little (one reason I think KHAN will do well).
On November 25 2011 01:36 Subversive wrote: I'll say it again. KT are champions and they just added a very solid terran to their already strong line. Khan (as much as I love them) weren't even top 3 last time around. The addition of 2 average zergs (one of them underperforming) and the removal of one, is not game changing. They're one of the shallower teams at the moment. CJ is stronger, and so are SKT1 and KT. Possibly team 8 as well.
KT are champions but, while they got a spark in the playoffs, they made the playoffs almost entirely on the strength of WL performances: their normal-format record was abysmal and this year they've lost the ability to play Flash twice. Mind is a solid A-class player but not Flash, so given the format that's actually a downgrade. Wooki should be a good replacement for Violet (and if he comes back in R2 that will be a huge boost), and CH is a nice addition, at least in theory (R5&6 last year he wasn't that great, but mediocre is better than bad). Still, this is KT: Flash (+Mind), a good Protoss (maybe 2), and a mediocre Zerg line.
I don't say KHAN's necessarily better, but they're not much worse. Stork and Jangbi are still a nice 1-2: both better than Mind if not as good as Flash. Shine and RorO are both usually a decent bit above average – I don't put too much stock in a slump from three months ago. The KHAN weak point is Terran, which will be decent, but "good" will depend on how much TurN and Reality have improved – and this is completely ignoring Brave and Grape, who both looked good. KHAN to me seems like a complete team in a way KT doesn't.
Obviously, we'll see how the season goes.
Sure, I don't disagree with that. I just don't agree that KT is doomed because of the removal of the ace format (and destined to be overtaken by 4 teams). It's also gone from bo7 back to bo5 which is good for teams that aren't ultra deep (like KT).
Edit: And as for the winners league point, KT still battled through SKT1, CJ and Stars to win the Championship in a non WL format.
On November 25 2011 01:22 gen.Sun wrote: I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs.
Stats has been solid for a long time. I have no idea where you get him being overvalued. His 'stats' and record speak for themselves.
"I actually watch every game" LOL. Good for you! Way to sound more pretentious. I guess that makes you an expert :D. Yeah Stork could repeat some of his better times. Or he might not. The same way Jangbi is by no means guaranteed to keep performing.
I'll say it again. KT are champions and they just added a very solid terran to their already strong line. Khan (as much as I love them) weren't even top 3 last time around. The addition of 2 average zergs (one of them underperforming) and the removal of one, is not game changing. They're one of the shallower teams at the moment. CJ is stronger, and so are SKT1 and KT. Possibly team 8 as well.
Lol. Sorry if I came across as pretentious. I was just drawing attention to our different methods of rating players. I admit my fanboyism isn't very rigorous, I prefer the subjective.
The main thing I want to point out is that KT are champions because of the Ace match, because of WL. Without those KT would not have been champions and look weaker than Khan.
On November 25 2011 01:36 tryummm wrote: I really think STX is better than people are giving them credit for. I mean, Dear has shown some really good builds in the past and if he could improve his management he could be a good player in the future. Shuttle, Bogus, and Calm are also good, proven players. There fifth player will be a Zerg, who can still take games off of just about any player. Really it just depends on how much preparation the Zergs other than Calm put into preparing for the matchups that will dictate how well STX will do. And possibly the development of Dear.
They're good proven players who seem to be in a deep slump. Will they get out of it?
Remember that their coach hates them so much he tried to get rid of all of them. It doesn't feel like a good team environment.
On November 25 2011 01:22 gen.Sun wrote: I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs.
You're horrific. Did you forget that Hoejja beat Stork convincingly?
I find it hilarious that you're like "Oh Stork will bounce back" and then say "Oh Hoejja just fluked!". That's a two way streak, I can equally say "Oh Stork will continue to suck" and "Oh Hoejja will continue to be a solid zerg" and my statement, if anything would hold more weight simply based on their performances over the past half year
On November 25 2011 01:22 gen.Sun wrote: I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs.
You're horrific. Did you forget that Hoejja beat Stork convincingly?
I find it hilarious that you're like "Oh Stork will bounce back" and then say "Oh Hoejja just fluked!". That's a two way streak, I can equally say "Oh Stork will continue to suck" and "Oh Hoejja will continue to be a solid zerg" and my statement, if anything would hold more weight simply based on their performances over the past half year
And his statement holds more weight based on performance over a period longer than the past half year...
On November 25 2011 01:22 gen.Sun wrote: I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs.
You're horrific. Did you forget that Hoejja beat Stork convincingly?
I find it hilarious that you're like "Oh Stork will bounce back" and then say "Oh Hoejja just fluked!". That's a two way streak, I can equally say "Oh Stork will continue to suck" and "Oh Hoejja will continue to be a solid zerg" and my statement, if anything would hold more weight simply based on their performances over the past half year
Sure it might. I'm basing my opinion based on my understanding of those 2 player's overall skill.
On November 25 2011 01:22 gen.Sun wrote: I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs.
this just sounds like you have a preconceived opinion and you're trying to use whatever it is you're using to make them fit in your argument.
KT are the current two-time repeat champs. ace match or not, that doesn't count for anything?
speaking of flukes, if you want to discredit hoejja's form, i can say well jangbi just had a good osl run he was shit for a long time before that.
not to mention hoejja is still an up-and-comer, along with much of KT's roster. you do realise flash and stats will be 20 next year?
edit: missed the above posts saying basically what i said. oh well, never mind, dude. i forgive you for your blasphemy.
On November 25 2011 01:22 gen.Sun wrote: I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs.
You're horrific. Did you forget that Hoejja beat Stork convincingly?
I find it hilarious that you're like "Oh Stork will bounce back" and then say "Oh Hoejja just fluked!". That's a two way streak, I can equally say "Oh Stork will continue to suck" and "Oh Hoejja will continue to be a solid zerg" and my statement, if anything would hold more weight simply based on their performances over the past half year
And his statement holds more weight based on performance over a period longer than the past half year...
Are you being a one-sided fanboy like him? Are you honestly saying that KT doesn't have any depth? No, don't be a fanboy just because I'm not being fluffy about Khan. Reread what he said and tell me with a straight face that he is not being ridiculous
Flash is a "certain scrub stomping player"?!?!?!?!?!?? You're siding with someone that says THAT?!?!?!
On November 25 2011 01:22 gen.Sun wrote: I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
Shine is kinda bad, but certainly better than say Chavi or Orion, who were the players that got replaced. That's going to make a serious difference for Khan's vZ, esp vs the usual all-in zergs.
You're horrific. Did you forget that Hoejja beat Stork convincingly?
I find it hilarious that you're like "Oh Stork will bounce back" and then say "Oh Hoejja just fluked!". That's a two way streak, I can equally say "Oh Stork will continue to suck" and "Oh Hoejja will continue to be a solid zerg" and my statement, if anything would hold more weight simply based on their performances over the past half year
Sure it might. I'm basing my opinion based on my understanding of those 2 player's overall skill.
Predicting the future, how does it work?
Don't strawman me, you're being overzealous with some dirty statements here,
I actually watch every single game. 12-12 is like the worst that Stork could do. He can repeat his monstrous tear back in January... if he feels like it. Flash is definitely a more certain scrub stomping player, but Stork and Jangbi are only a tad below him, and certainly far ahead of Stats. Stats is quite overvalued.
You're definitely over counting the last round of SPL. Hoejja has always been bad, him doing well for 1 round is a fluke until proven other, just like Stork going 12-12 feels like a fluke.
The fact of the matter is, you're not making any sense here. You can't watch every single game and think what you've said here however if you really do think that then you're too far gone and I'm only wasting my time talking to you
On November 26 2011 09:20 Dakkas wrote: Flash is a "certain scrub stomping player"?!?!?!?!?!?? You're siding with someone that says THAT?!?!?!
You must be misunderstanding what I'm saying...?
I mean Flash is less likely to lose randomly to players significantly lower tier than him, unlike say Stork or Jaedong or Fantasy. That's not remotely offensive.
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