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The Pretender Park Ji Soo is the most recently successful broodwar progamer to switch to Star2. Although he abused horrifically imbalanced maps on his road to MSL victory, fOrGG still boasted an over 50% winrate in standard leagues in 2010 before his abrupt retirement, in addition to making ro36 bacchus osl and ro8 bigfile MSL. Although he was no longer within the elite terrans, he was still a solid workhorse in PL and made respectable runs in the individual leagues. The second most successful broodwar player yet in MVP only has a single lucky MSL ro8 to his name plus his reputation as a Woongjin terran in proleague (ie, a complete joke).
However, a data point of a single player is pretty lame. So let's look at broodwar performance as a predictor of success in the GSL. So far there have been 11 GSL finals, including Super Tournament and the World Championship. I also make the assumption that war3 players, no matter their skill, are inferior to all BW players, but the lack of success of war3 players means it doesn't make a huge difference.
 Cool[fOu] >  IntoTheRainBOw
ZergBong[Name] > Clare[Shield]
IrOn[KaL] >  Rain
MVP > Clare[Shield]
IrOn[KaL] > July
ZergBong[Name] > InCa
ZergBong[Name] > tHuNdeR
MVP > Top
Dream.t)1988 > MVP
Polt > Dream.t)1988
MVP > Clare[Shield]
Of these 11 finals, there are four upsets. Polt over 1988 for the super tournament, cool over rainbow for GSL1, Iron > July for GSL March, and 1988 over MVP for GSL October. Cool beating Rainbow is perhaps the least relevant, since both players dropped out of broodwar programing some 3 years ago. There are certainly extenuating circumstances for Iron's victory over July or 1988 beating MVP in California, but the only true failure of the broodwar pro system is Polt's super tournament victory, a war3 amateur. Nevertheless, if you were to bet purely on broodwar performance, 7/11 translates to a 64% correct prediction.
Next is the round of 4:
InCa > NaDa
tHuNdeR > n.Die_DDONG
Clare[Shield]> IrOn[KaL]
Clare[Shield] > RainBOw
ZergBong[Name] > BoxeR
Five upsets out of a possible 22 matches, or 77% correct prediction.
ro8
RainBOw > TesteR
BoxeR > NaDa
Rain > ZergBong[Name]
HongUn > Cool[fOu]
Jinro > IdrA
Clare[Shield] > NaDa
InCa > SangHo
sC > tHuNdeR
HongUn > MC
tHuNdeR > TesteR
n.Die_DDONG > NsP_Fancy
Polt > Keen
Jjakji > Puzzle
13 out of 44, or 70% correct prediction.
I didn't want to bother to look at the ro16 as well, but it seems that broodwar performance is a fairly decent indicator of how well you will perform in GSL. As the second best broodwar player to switch, MVP's 3 Code S finals and 2 GSL golds also seem to support this claim. Putting aside statistics that can easily be misleading, fOrGG's Code A match against Sage was incredibly dominating. Sage is supposed to be one of the most promising protosses coming out of Code A alongside twilight and tasssadar, but fOrGG made him look clueless. As long as fOrGG can survive his next Code A match against Polt, only July or Genius stands in his way to code S, neither of whom should present any problems for fOrGG.
as an interesting side note, when i was looking at the bw records of the lesser known bw b-teamers, i found that the code S terrans had a much higher rate of being successful in dream league or offline prelims than Code S/A protoss or zergs. in short, code s is infested by terrans because most of them were better at broodwar than their protosss or zerg counterparts, rather than T being OP.
 
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is this an application of the elephant theory?
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i'm interested to see how he goes, it'll be a real indication of how s-class bw players will perform /if/ they switched over
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On November 28 2011 11:21 vitruvia wrote:
is this an application of the elephant theory?
Seems like it- However- you cant deny the truth in the facts.
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Found the Terran BW record intriguing... I personally believe that no imbalance really exists in SC2, but that maps, and player strategy/innovation for the most part have generally favored Terran. That would be supported by evidence if the Terrans truly were the better BW players simply because they were more talented.
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United States335 Posts
I am confident that fOrGG will quickly become one of the best, if not the best SC2 players in the world. He was much stronger than MVP in BW and I think SC2 fits his play style nicely.
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On November 28 2011 11:55 conTAgi0n wrote:
I am confident that fOrGG will quickly become one of the best, if not the best SC2 players in the world. He was much stronger than MVP in BW and I think SC2 fits his play style nicely.
King of timings! I love fOrGG ^^ Hopefully he won't become a sniper in sc2 and just dominates everybody 
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On November 28 2011 11:49 mrRoflpwn wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2011 11:21 vitruvia wrote:
is this an application of the elephant theory? Seems like it- However- you cant deny the truth in the facts.
lets put it that forgg has 72% chance of winning each upcoming GSL unless another broodwar superior player switches.
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Seems like I'm the only one that sees him as irOn with more fans. Maybe he wins on the same level as the three korean kings but I still don't see him rising above their level of success.
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Saying he abused horribly imbalanced maps to take his MSL victory is a massive understatement. Yes. It was that bad. That entire MSL was like a joke.
ForGG was good when he was at his peak, but I think his reliance on early timings was a fundamental problem with his playstyle. I imagine it'd work out better in SC2, though.
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He was a successful player, but in terms of being a solid all around player? I don't think he was that much better than MVP if at all.
Also, even though he's been playing since January, he JUST joined a team like a few months ago. Ladder practice will only take you so far, and in fact, no one actually uses ladder as a serious practice method in Korea. I'd give it a few months before he's able to get deep in GSL. He has a really tough bracket in code A as well. Just watch his games so far, they're available, and you'll realize that he's good, but he's not amazing top 5 terran material just yet.
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Seeker
Where dat snitch at?36903 Posts
We've only seen a couple of games from him. Hard to just determine that cause of his BW success that he's a shoo in for code s.
He's good I admit, but is he GREAT? Only time will tell
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On November 28 2011 11:20 rauk wrote:as an interesting side note, when i was looking at the bw records of the lesser known bw b-teamers, i found that the code S terrans had a much higher rate of being successful in dream league or offline prelims than Code S/A protoss or zergs. in short, code s is infested by terrans because most of them were better at broodwar than their protosss or zerg counterparts, rather than T being OP.
Thank you so much for this paragraph. It is very very frustrating when people instantly come to the conclusion of racial imbalance and completely disregard other plausible factors.
Good write up and interesting food for thought.
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United States10328 Posts
haha, interesting... hope it works out as you predict :D woo frogg
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Wow, nice stats thanks for showing lol
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
forgg will win Code S, but because he is so sick skilled its insane.
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I think he'll do well, but I don't know how long he'll be able to keep it up. I really want Forgg to dominate with his signature style at least for a while, because it's something that will greatly spice up the scene. However, I still feel that he's too inconsistent. He might end up being a Fruitdealer or July. Either way, KT fighting! :D
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He is certainly a player to watch in 2012.
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On November 28 2011 13:42 Plexa wrote:
forgg will win Code S, but because he is so sick skilled its insane.
I clicked on this thread for the sole reason of seeing if you had posted here yet.
#1 ForGG fanboy plexa :p
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My most interesting takeaway from this post is actually that MKP's BW name is Clare. 
But yeah, fOrGG definitely has the pure skill to just dominate, BW is pretty intense and demanding, and he can (and he did, vs Tassadar) just outplay everyone else.
Except Polt. /fanboy
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EPT
