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United States13896 Posts
Alright, first off I'm a big XellOs fan, so with his joining the Air Force I've become more interested in how ACE will do this season. So, I decided to go about looking at how current and past ACE members have performed to get a general understanding about how drastically their time in ACE has strayed from their previous stats and accomplishments. Then, I wanted to sort of take these things and get an idea of what ACE's future will look like with fOru, Rage, and Sunny departing and GoRush/XellOs joining the ranks.
* = H.O.T, XellOs, and GoRush's stats did not factor in to the Total numbers
So, there's a lot of shit here, but I'll just pick out the stuff I was interested in. First off, I thought it was cool to see what each player's stats looked like before they were tainted by their years in ACE. It's a good way to put into perspective how good these guys were in their prime, rather than just look at their overall career stats in TLPD. Secondly, I wanted to see how each player did while in ACE. OversKy with a better winning % than BoxeR was pretty surprising.
Race-wise, the Terran players seem to have taken the biggest hit from their time in ACE compared to their previous numbers. Of course, it is a bit skewed imo because Sunny and ChRh both joined ACE after having gone years since their last televised game. One thing I was really interested in was whether any matchup proved particularly more difficult for ACE members with their lessened practice times:
Before - ACE = Difference
TvT: 50.00% - 32.73% = 17.27
TvP: 48.58% - 26.67% = 21.91
TvZ: 57.14% - 33.33% = 23.81
PvT: 53.87% - 27.27% = 26.6
PvP: 52.17% - 39.47% = 12.7
PvZ: 45.53% - 32.43% = 13.1
ZvT: 49.71% - 28.89% = 20.82
ZvP: 57.22% - 42.55% = 14.67
ZvZ: 52.14% - 37.50% = 14.64
AVG Difference = 18.39%
So, Protoss players seem to have a hell of a time playing PvT compared to the other matchups seeing their Winning % drop more than twice as much as the other matchups.
Looking towards the next few rounds of PL, I think it's pretty clear that things are going to get better for ACE with the arrival of GoRush and XellOs. Also, you can see that the team will be getting rid of a lot of dead weight in Sunny, fOru, and Rage (who all went a combined 8-45 in 1v1 games). GoRush still had the ability to make it through offline prelims and win a game or two in qualifying tournaments before he decided to go to ACE, and I think it would be fair to bet he can win somewhere in the range of 35-40% of his games. I don't think XellOs will do quite as well, but he'll do better than Casy, probably winning somewhere around 30-35% of his games.
If these predictions come true, ACE will be significantly more dangerous than they are now. They'll have at least two capable players at each race, and if given good matchups I could see them beating two or three games a round, not just 1 outta 11. Anyways, if you don't like stats, I apologize, but its almost baseball season, and I'm getting more and more interested in dissecting stuff like this again.
  
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CA10828 Posts
i can see ace winning 4 matches per round if they have a little bit of luck on their side.
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hmm, i guess ace will be a team to watch for in the next while. good job on the article btw =)
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my god those winning %'s are bad..i think im going to cry
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The problem with ACE is not only that it doesn't give as much practice time once you join it, but also that you lose skill during basic with no way to gain it back.
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United States13896 Posts
On March 11 2009 07:34 DamageControL wrote:
The problem with ACE is not only that it doesn't give as much practice time once you join it, but also that you lose skill during basic with no way to gain it back.
Yeah, another (and possibly bigger) reason for the drastic changes in W% is the prolonged time the players (excluding BoxeR, Anytime, DaezanG, OversKy, and MuMyung) went through before enlisting where they didn't play any games at all.
For example, Sunny had 18 months before he first played for ACE where he didn't play any televised games at all. It was obviously going to be almost impossible for him to catch back up and win any decent amount of games.
For the newer recruits this is less of an issue though, which is why I expect you'll see more players with winning pcts ~35-40% on the team as they take on more new players.
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And finally they don't have the luxury of have the best practice partners around
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Baa?21242 Posts
Reach and Anytime can still dish it out, hopefully Xellos will be able to too.
Hong Jin Ho lost two games, but the first game was very VERY close, and the second one was just some bad decision making - lack of experience from such a long hiatus perhaps. I really hope YellOw can pull off some wins <3
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Reach's win rate since 1/1/06 (arbitrary date) has virtually 0 change before and after he joined ACE. They are both ~40%. I think it is a better comparison to only include more recent games for people going to ACE since play has changed so much.
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Very cool. I've always thought about doing those calculations for ACE players but never got around to it. Thanks for this. =)
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Reach broke his 11 game losing streak after joining ACE.
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United States13896 Posts
On March 11 2009 09:07 wswordsmen wrote:
Reach's win rate since 1/1/06 (arbitrary date) has virtually 0 change before and after he joined ACE. They are both ~40%. I think it is a better comparison to only include more recent games for people going to ACE since play has changed so much.
This is a valid point. I decided to compare the 2 years before players entered ACE to the 2 years they spent in ACE:
Before - ACE = Difference
TvT: 41.30% - 32.73% = V 8.57%
TvP: 38.33% - 26.67% = V 11.66%
TvZ: 68.00% - 33.33% = V 34.67% <--- WOW
PvT: 57.73% - 27.27% = V 30.46%
PvP: 40.58% - 39.47% = V 1.11%
PvZ: 52.00% - 32.43% = V 19.57%
ZvT: 43.18% - 28.89% = V 14.29%
ZvP: 62.86% - 42.55% = V 20.31%
ZvZ: 33.33% - 37.50% = /\ 4.17%
AVG Difference = V 15.16%
This yields some interesting results as well. Overall it shows the impact of being on ACE may be less, but the AVG is still similar. PvP remains almost exactly the same before and during ACE, TvT, shows minimal differences, and ZvZ winning % actually goes up. Maybe the nature of PvP and ZvZ just doesn't allow for as much loss of skill when practice time/quality goes down? The difference in TvZ and PvT becomes even more exaggerated.
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On March 11 2009 07:34 DamageControL wrote:
The problem with ACE is not only that it doesn't give as much practice time once you join it, but also that you lose skill during basic with no way to gain it back.
Actually from what I'm aware they have PLENTY of practice time. Maybe not 12 hours a day, but they were saying they got a TON of time to play since they were on the ACE official team.
Their biggest problem was they had no one decent to practice against, and they would request C team players (not even B team) from other teams to play against, or play on iCCuP.
So with crap ppl to practice against their games are going to be a lot worse...
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Looking at the chart, it looks like its primarily BoxeR's ACE stats vZ that drag down the TvZ pool, especially since he was so powerful before he joined ACE versus Zerg.
Nice work!
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On March 11 2009 09:47 Sentenal wrote:
Reach broke his 11 game losing streak after joining ACE.
this
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EPT![[image loading]](http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/5711/acestats.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/2276/acestats2.jpg)
