EPT
Firebathero v. Savior
Game 1:
Python is where it kicks off. I have no problem giving the opening game to Savior, even after seeing him against Iris on this same map, which closed the gap between the Terran and Zerg statistics, now with TvZ at 12-14. I don’t think Savior will allow himself to lose twice in a row on this map to Terran players. He is going to realize what went wrong in his game against Iris and should easily whip himself into shape in time for this match.
Game 2:
Loki sets the arena for the second game. Only three TvZ games have been played so far on this map, presenting a 2-1 record in favor of the Terran players. With an easy to secure back-nat, and no other easy expansions to hold on to I think Terran has a slight advantage here. Both players have won their only games on this map. Firebathero is my pick to win on this map, though if he manages to win game one on Python, Savior may be able to come up with something spicy on the spot to swing things back in his favor. I’m looking for the match to be tied after this game rather than either player to begin running away with the match.
Game 3:
Savior gave the thumbs down to Desperado, but he will win this game. Most of the players in the MSL so far have given the thumbs down to maps that favored themselves rather than their opponent, just like when picking for groups they always pick to play against better players and then, more often than not, lose. The TvZ stats here are 1-2, but Savior is responsible for both of the Zerg wins, one of which was because he played as Terran and lost to GoRush. That should further fuel Saviors ability to win; he knows what it’s like to win as a Zerg and what it’s like to lose as a Terran.
Game 4:
Monty Hall is the map Firebathero that gave the thumbs down. I can only assume that he did this to show respect to Savior and wanting to challenge himself in the match, which fits with progamers always picking the toughest opponents first. Firebathero wants to beat the best, and he doesn’t want there to be any excuses when he wins. Firebathero should have little problem defeating Savior here. Monty Hall is ridiculous for TvZ at 5-1. Savior can claim that sole Zerg win as his own, against Shine previously in the MSL when his back was against the wall, threatening elimination, which leads me right into...
Game 5:
The return trip to Python, and if they’ve gotten this far, Savior is with his back against the wall, and when that happens he doesn’t lose (except maybe against a certain Protoss player). However, this time it won’t be on an unfavorable map that he has to force a win out of, he should be able to pull the final win off with ease.
Savior and Firebathero have yet to play one another on television. Firebathero is currently is on a 7 game wining streak and has won fourteen of his last sixteen games. However, none of those games have been against a Zerg player. It is a match-up we have not recently seen of Firebathero. Still, Firebathero isn’t showing any signs of cooling off, so I wouldn’t expect him to go down in three quick games, he will put up a fight. Savior hasn’t been dominating in every game he plays against Terran recently, but he has won more ZvT games recently than he has lost. Besides, he never won his matches last season 3-0, he always game up at least a game or two. Savior wins when he needs to win and can’t be counted out until he actually loses. If the same Savior comes to play as the one who had a combined 14-4 on Reverse Temple and Longinus 2, then We should expect him to once again come out of the fray as a victor.
Last 10 Games:
Firebathero: 9-1
Savior: 6-4
Firebathero (TvZ)
Python: 2-1 (0-0)
Loki: 1-0 (0-0)
Desperado: 1-0 (0-0)
Monty Hall: 3-0 (0-0)
Savior (ZvT)
Python: 3-1 (1-1)
Loki: 1-0 (0-0)
Desperado: 1-1 (0-0)
Monty Hall: 2-2 (1-2)
My Predictions:
Firebathero < Savior @ Python
Firebathero > Savior @ Loki
Firebathero < Savior @ Desperado
Firebathero > Savior @ Monty Hall
Firebathero < Savior @ Python
Stork v. 910
Game 1:
Python begins this match as well. With PvT Stats at 8-10 it seems fairly even so far in its progaming use. I don’t expect Stork to be collapsing to any of this recent biorush versus Protoss, he should be scouting early enough to know to look for things like this the way his last few matches have been going. It is difficult to tell whether or not 910 has a chance, since I haven’t seen any TvP from him, which hold true for the rest of the games as well. I do know that Stork has beaten both Nada and Shudder on this map though and with his steller vT record I’m going to give the edge to him.
Game 2:
Desperado, the map thumbed down by 910, currently is 6-1 in PvT. I going to go so far as to guess that he gave it the thumbs down not because he wanted Stork to have a better chance to win, but rather so that he could maybe escalate the match somewhere close to a fair fight for himself. After this game I expect that to go up to 7-1. I don’t really have any more analysis aside from that here.
Game 3:
And that brings us to Monty Hall. A map that seems fair to both Terran and Protoss (18-13 PvT) while completely forgetting about the third race known as Zerg (combined 4-14 ZvNotZ). Again I see little hope for 910, but I don’t want to see him get smashed too badly, hopefully by this point he can at least force it to game four…
Game 4:
…where he will get brutally smashed on Loki. Currently it is at 5-1 in PvT and Stork managed to defeat Sea on this map, who I imagine to be a much better Terran player than 910 if they keep using Sea for Proleague and not this guy. If it makes it this far, Stork will put it away here.
Game 5:
If it makes it back to Python, never mind, it won’t.
In the last six months, Stork is 13-1 against Terran players. 910 has yet to play a televised match against a Protoss player, out of the nine he’s played. MBC has yet to schedule him to play in Proleague, I don’t really know why, as his young career shows him doing very well in his first individual league. It’s hard for me to make a case for 910 here; especially since his teammates in this MSL have each fallen to Stork like dominos. Stork has been felling Terrans left and right, if 910 wants to stand a chance he better think about setting up a secret meeting with Sea.Leta, whose only televised win is against Stork (but damn, he was impressive that game).
Last 10 Games:
Stork: 6-4
910: 8-1
Stork (PvT)
Python: 4-0 (2-0)
Desperado: 2-1 (1-0)
Monty Hall: 4-3 (1-0)
Loki: 1-1 (1-0)
910 (TvP)
Python: 2-0 (0-0)
Desperado: 1-0 (0-0)
Monty Hall: 1-1 (0-0)
Loki: 0-0 (0-0)
My Predictions:
Stork > 910 @ Python
Stork > 910 @ Desperado
Stork > 910 @ Monty Hall
Stork > 910 @ Python
