EPT
Game 1:
Python, with a current 14-11 ZvT record, appears balanced so far, but will be the easiest game for Savior to win of the match. He has done well on that map, winning all three of his televised games. Python is a very standard map which should allow for Savior to trample over Iris with little difficulty as it seems conducive to Savior's style of play. I would be surprised if Iris came away with the win here.
Game 2:
Hitchhiker currently holds a 35-31 TvZ record. During the last, and only, meeting on this map in the semifinal of Shinhan 3 OSL Iris came out with a win. Iris also has a better record playing on Hitchhiker, if only slightly. I believe this to be the deciding game of the series, despite it only being the second, as it is the least heavily favored in one way or the other. It is a must win game for both players; Iris will likely need to win just to push it to game three and Savior will have to end the match before it gets to Monty Hall. I give a slight edge to Iris on this one, but it could go either way.
Game 3:
Monty Hall seems to be in general a tough map for ZvT, a 9-3 record suggests that Zerg players do not have much of a chance here. If Iris is able to push it to this game I think he will be able to pull out the win. He will have the confidence from winning one of the last two games, and if it was Hitchhiker he won, he will also have the momentum from the previous win as the third game of the match will be played immediately after the second. Savior needs to keep this game from happening, which he should be plenty capable of, if he intends on attempting back-to-back OSL titles.
Both players were in a supposed slump for a while, but have moved on from any question of that. Iris is currently on a six game wining streak while Savior has been showing strong performances in the individual leagues, but has yet to attain a wining record in Proleague. Past meetings put Savior in the lead 3-2 against Iris, from their semifinal match in the Shinhan 3 OSL. Savior’s games will get harder for him as the maps increasingly favor Iris as each game passes. If Savior doesn't win 2-0, Iris will take the series 2-1.
Last 10 games:
Savior: 6-4
Iris: 8-2
Savior (ZvT)
Python: 3-0 (1-0)
Hitchhiker: 2-2 (2-2)
Monty Hall: 2-2 (1-2)
Iris (TvZ)
Python: 1-1 (1-1)
Hitchhiker: 4-2 (2-1)
Monty Hall: 1-0 (0-0)
My Predictions:
Savior > Iris @ Python
Savior < Iris @ Hitchhiker
Savior < Iris @ Monty Hall
Reach v. Stork
Game 1:
The last time these two met it was also on Monty Hall and Stork was victorious. Stork should be able to repeat that performance again here; his PvP has been impressive, and on this map specifically, whereas Reach’s PvP is rather questionable lately. Stork has more experience playing this map under the spotlight as well, not that it should make a difference, but I don’t see it being very likely for reach to get a win here.
Game 2:
Fantasy is a difficult map to predict, not only have we seen so few games on it, but the positioning is too difficult to tell who might get an advantage before the game begins. This will be the first PvP match on Fantasy. Stork is just too powerful at the moment for me to consider Reach being able to take a game from him.
Game 3:
I doubt these two will get to play on Python, but if they do I’d again give the advantage to Stork. He has yet to lose on the map, and even though none of those games were PvP, I would guess that Stork has a good understanding of the gameplay here. If Stork plays a strong game here reach would be hard-pressed to achieve victory.
These two have met four times before and are even at 2-2, though Stork has won the most recent two of the four games. This is Reach’s ninth trip to the quarterfinals in his OSL career! It’s only Stork’s first; though he did qualify for several leagues, but previously failed each time to escape the Round of Sixteen. Unfortunately, things do not look good for the OSL veteran. As it stands, Stork has too powerful of a PvP right now for me to pick against him, he will most likely take this match in two quick games.
Last 10 Games:
Reach: 5-5
Stork: 7-3
Reach (PvP)
Monty Hall: 0-2 (0-2)
Fantasy: 1-0 (0-0)
Python: 1-1 (0-0)
Stork (PvP)
Monty hall: 4-2 (3-1)
Fantasy: 1-0 (0-0)
Python: 4-0 (0-0)
My Predictions:
Reach < Stork @ Monty Hall
Reach < Stork @ Fantasy
Bisu v. Flash
Game 1:
Hitchhiker seems to favor Protoss in this match-up if we look at the statistics, 32-20 in PvT. This is a difficult pick. Bisu should have the advantage here, both by the map and in experience, and for that I give him the slight edge, but I’ve got my eye on Flash for this one and wouldn’t be surprised to see the youngster take it.
Game 2:
Monty Hall looks to be a map that Flash should be able to find victory without too much trouble. Currently the statics have PvT at an 18-13, and his only game here resulted in a win and allowed him to advance to the elimination rounds. Bisu’s play was not at all impressive on this map against Hwasin and his record there shows that he can be defeated. I’m looking for Flash to take at least one game from Bisu, if not two, and this map seems like the most likely for him to do that.
Game 3:
Who knows what could happen on Fantasy? there have got to be a lot of practice hours for this map for a player to go in reasonably confident with a build order in mind. If Flash has school, that means he will have less time on his hands than Bisu. I am guessing that Bisu will be more prepared for this map, mostly because he also had to practice for it against Nada. Additionally a Terran player is yet to be victorious on this map and no Protoss player has lost.
If there are going to be any upsets in the quarterfinals, it is most likely going to happen here. Both of these players are nigh unstoppable at the moment and Flash is too new to the scene to even tell what he is capable of just yet. Reach says he loses to the kid a lot, and he has had little trouble plowing through other Terrans in this OSL. Also, as I am sure is widely known at this point, Flash has not yet lost a televised game against Protoss. He holds an impressive 7-0 record, and to pile more onto that, one of those wins was against Bisu in their only previous meeting. Flash knows that he can defeat Bisu, and there is no reason to think that he can’t do it again. On the other hand, Bisu has been tearing through Terrans in both leagues. He should have that match-up down by now, and his results support that. Bisu has shown that he has the will to win, and Flash is well on his way to proving that, but I don’t think he is there quite yet. I’d wager that this match goes to game three for sure and that it is Bisu who will most likely emerge the victor.
Last 10 Games:
Bisu: 8-2
Flash: 8-2
Bisu (PvT)
Hitchhiker: 2-0 (0-0)
Monty Hall: 4-2 (3-2)
Fantasy: 1-0 (1-0)
Flash (TvP)
Hitchhiker: 2-0 (1-0)
Monty Hall: 1-0 (0-0)
Fantasy: 0-1 (0-0)
My Predictions:
Bisu > Flash @ Hitchhiker
Bisu < Flash @ Monty Hall
Bisu > Flash @ Fantasy
GGPlay v. Hwasin
Game 1:
I just got done saying that Fantasy has yet to see a Terran player win. It’s got to happen sometime though, and I think Hwasin is the one to do it. TvZ has been his best match-up in the past, even taking a full-powered Savior to a fifth game in a best-of-five match. But with this map it can be hard to tell until after the countdown, but I’ll be expecting Hwasin to win here.
Game 2:
Python had to of been Hwasin’s best game last night, he looked like he really knew what he was doing; sure it was against Protoss and not Zerg, but Python has decent stats for TvZ, 11-14, which is not a large enough margin to say that Zerg has a decided advantage here. GGPlay has split games on this map with Nada and defeated Upmagic, neither of which has been doing particularly well lately, especially in TvZ. My money is on Hwasin to finish this match in two.
Game 3:
But if it goes to Hitchhiker, I would still say Hwasin has the upper hand. Again fairly even stats for this map, 35-31 in TvZ, and Hwasin has shown in the past that he is better at this match-up. Lesser players than Hwasin have defeated GGPlay on this battlefield and I would expect nothing less than a victory from the STX Terran.
Hwasin has been cruising through the leagues until he hits the Bisu roadblock, his last ten games might not be much of an indicator, but more than half of those losses are to Bisu, who has been his only real trouble recently. He has come out ahead in two of the three games against GGPlay in the past, but those were some time ago. As for GGPlay, he just isn’t consistent enough in my eyes for me to believe that he will go far in any league. The Terrans that GGPlay has been defeating are getting run over by everyone else as well, I need to see him defeating some real players, consistently, to consider him a favorite this far into the tournament. Hwasin should take this in two games.
Last 10 Games:
GGPlay: 5-5
Hwasin: 4-6
GGPlay (ZvT)
Fantasy: 1-0 (1-0)
Python: 2-3 (2-1)
Hitchhiker: 3-2 (2-2)
Hwasin (TvZ)
Fantasy: 0-0 (0-0)
Python: 3-3 (0-0)
Hitchhiker: 3-1 (1-1)
My Predictions:
GGPlay < Hwasin @ Fantasy
GGPlay < Hwasin @ Python
