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Hong Kong protest (Half a year of resistance)

Blogs > ETisME
Post a Reply
ETisME
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
12338 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-02-22 11:47:49
December 18 2019 16:31 GMT
#1
It's hard to believe it's been half a year already, so much have been changed.

The anger, the pain, the sadness are at times unbearable, and have costed me sleeping less than 5 hours daily for a few months, sometimes with no sleep at all.

There were times I felt so desperate that I was going to be at the very front myself, risking getting shot by the police, risking jail time, just to hope that someone important or the world would pay attention and do something.

I was part of the telegram group that proposed the 5 demands with everyone.
1. Withdraw the extradition bill
2. Cancel the riot classification of 16th June
3. Independent investigation on the police brutality
4. Release all protesters
5. Universal Suffrage

The first few months we spend a lot on what to do:
- Should we throw bricks? How about petrol bomb?
- What do we need to defend ourselves against tear gas?
- How to build road blocks? How to slow down the police?
- How to escape police arrest? (some of their tactics are frankly ridiculous, they would literally kidnap protesters by hiding in a truck, dash out and grab protesters and leave)
- What do we do when pro Beijing thugs attack us?
- What do we do when it's just one pro Beijing guy looking for trouble?
- How can we keep the support from the people while protesting?
- Do we march if the police doesn't approve the march?
- Should we "decorate" the pro Beijing store?

Of cause there are more, like how to get international attention, what kind of protests we can do, let's design a flag, a song.

==========================================================================

And things just never gotten better.
- Suicides;
- Raped by police (and abortion);
- Blinded by police (including reporters);
- Framing protesters by putting weapons into their bags when arrested
- Police charging assault when they beat down the protesters so hard that he needs 10 stitches in the head, while the police only get a literal scratch.
- Police charging assault for the speaker too loud to his ear
- Police using live round to a protester without a single weapon at hand.
- Police worked with Pro-Beijing thugs who attacked indiscriminately, including journalist and a pregnant woman
- Police speeding up police van to ramp into protesters
- Police ramping protesters with a motorcycle.
- Attacks on universities
- Undercover cop
- Suspected murders (disappearing cases);
- Suspected arrested protesters transferred to Mainland China;
- Locking up Indonesian maid for her coverage of HK protest (including to have her removed her cloths to a male doctor) and eventually deported her back to Indonesia, despite her employers repeatedly confirmed she will extend the contract;
- Bit off ear by Pro Beijing thug;
- Knifing by Pro Beijing Thug that led to one protester never able to walk again;
- Pro Beijing driver crashing a taxi into a crowd of protesters leading to one never able to walk again (taxi driver is now back at work, while the protesters are charged with unlawful assembly);
Deliberately releasing Pro Beijing thugs attacking protesters and arresting protesters instead;
And more.

=========================================================================
The saddest part to see someone arrested, is not just that his heads are bleeding, or the police bashing his ankles for the fun of it etc.
It's when they try to shout out their names to the press and pedestrian, so that the lawyers and family can help, the police will cover their mouths.

And since there are so many very strange suicide cases, they would also try to shout out that they have NO INTENTION TO COMMIT SUICIDE.
The press will also make a remark how they have no physical injuries during the arrest (if that's the case), so that if there are injuries at court, we know they suffered physical assault in the station.

For people like me who are a little older, we normally have other kind of support.
Donation; food coupon for those whose family won't let them back home; drivers to help to leave the scene; strike; shop at pro democracy stores.

But right now, more than 6,000s have been arrested, and that's just the official figures. 40% are students, some are younger than 18.

===========================================================================================
I guess what I write this blog is, please keep us in the back of your mind.
Things are quieter now because a lot of the front-lines are arrested.


This protest isn't about economy, it is about our way of living.
Like many of you, we are used to a free society, and CCP is trying to change that, replace that with freedom/democracy/human right with Chinese characteristics.

They think what they do in Xinjiang is morally right because they are fighting "terrorism" when they are using fascist methods.

We are still trying to find a way to do this long haul, but we need US' help, EU's help, Japan, Korea's help. We need all the help we need.

We still have weekly schedule for our protest, it's almost like daily to be honest but they are at a much smaller scale on the weekdays normally.
We haven't given up yet, not because we have hope, but that there's really no going back.

Fight for Freedom, Stand with Hong Kong isn't just a slogan.

CCP will export its model out and the world is although politically complex but it is also simple minded, driven by economy growth.
Any political regime will slowly accept and integrate CCP's model on monitoring and "maintaining" its society.
Unless you, being one of its citizens, remind them that there are individuals' right are to be protected and that you all value them highly.

Here's an album that has some of my best captures covering this protest, I hope this brings a more personal touch than what you see in the news:
https://imgur.com/a/uuDM8gh

here's a video for the recent huge march we had:


****
其疾如风,其徐如林,侵掠如火,不动如山,难知如阴,动如雷震。
JoinTheRain
Profile Blog Joined September 2018
Bulgaria408 Posts
December 18 2019 20:11 GMT
#2
Your input is most welcome because it is from an eye witness and we can understand what is going on. Or at least have another point of view which is always welcome.
This citizen unrest is most troubling.
I hope the government of China yields to some of the demands and it does not grow into an open and most shameful civil war. But don't be fooled, the EU at least will not help in any way. The EU has vicious protests in itself going on, in Malta. And while they are not against all of the EU, they are still a sign of the internal troubles and corruption in our union as well. I also think no one is vocal about any kind of help for Hong Kong. And so, as much as it is to your detriment, Hong Kong is on its own.
The subject-matter of the art of living is each person's own life.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
December 19 2019 19:52 GMT
#3
--- Nuked ---
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
December 20 2019 22:46 GMT
#4
On December 19 2019 01:31 ETisME wrote:
It's hard to believe it's been half a year already, so much have been changed.

The anger, the pain, the sadness are at times unbearable, and have costed me sleeping less than 5 hours daily for a few months, sometimes with no sleep at all.

There were times I felt so desperate that I was going to be at the very front myself, risking getting shot by the police, risking jail time, just to hope that someone important or the world would pay attention and do something.

I was part of the telegram group that proposed the 5 demands with everyone.
1. Withdraw the extradition bill
2. Cancel the riot classification of 16th June
3. Independent investigation on the police brutality
4. Release all protesters
5. Universal Suffrage

The first few months we spend a lot on what to do:
- Should we throw bricks? How about petrol bomb?
- What do we need to defend ourselves against tear gas?
- How to build road blocks? How to slow down the police?
- How to escape police arrest? (some of their tactics are frankly ridiculous, they would literally kidnap protesters by hiding in a truck, dash out and grab protesters and leave)
- What do we do when pro Beijing thugs attack us?
- What do we do when it's just one pro Beijing guy looking for trouble?
- How can we keep the support from the people while protesting?
- Do we march if the police doesn't approve the march?
- Should we "decorate" the pro Beijing store?

Of cause there are more, like how to get international attention, what kind of protests we can do, let's design a flag, a song.

==========================================================================

And things just never gotten better.
- Suicides;
- Raped by police (and abortion);
- Blinded by police (including reporters);
- Framing protesters by putting weapons into their bags when arrested
- Police charging assault when they beat down the protesters so hard that he needs 10 stitches in the head, while the police only get a literal scratch.
- Police charging assault for the speaker too loud to his ear
- Police using live round to a protester without a single weapon at hand.
- Police worked with Pro-Beijing thugs who attacked indiscriminately, including journalist and a pregnant woman
- Police speeding up police van to ramp into protesters
- Police ramping protesters with a motorcycle.
- Attacks on universities
- Undercover cop
- Suspected murders (disappearing cases);
- Suspected arrested protesters transferred to Mainland China;
- Locking up Indonesian maid for her coverage of HK protest (including to have her removed her cloths to a male doctor) and eventually deported her back to Indonesia, despite her employers repeatedly confirmed she will extend the contract;
- Bit off ear by Pro Beijing thug;
- Knifing by Pro Beijing Thug that led to one protester never able to walk again;
- Pro Beijing driver crashing a taxi into a crowd of protesters leading to one never able to walk again (taxi driver is now back at work, while the protesters are charged with unlawful assembly);
Deliberately releasing Pro Beijing thugs attacking protesters and arresting protesters instead;
And more.

=========================================================================
The saddest part to see someone arrested, is not just that his heads are bleeding, or the police bashing his ankles for the fun of it etc.
It's when they try to shout out their names to the press and pedestrian, so that the lawyers and family can help, the police will cover their mouths.

And since there are so many very strange suicide cases, they would also try to shout out that they have NO INTENTION TO COMMIT SUICIDE.
The press will also make a remark how they have no physical injuries during the arrest (if that's the case), so that if there are injuries at court, we know they suffered physical assault in the station.

For people like me who are a little older, we normally have other kind of support.
Donation; food coupon for those whose family won't let them back home; drivers to help to leave the scene; strike; shop at pro democracy stores.

But right now, more than 6,000s have been arrested, and that's just the official figures. 40% are students, some are younger than 18.

===========================================================================================
I guess what I write this blog is, please keep us in the back of your mind.
Things are quieter now because a lot of the front-lines are arrested.


This protest isn't about economy, it is about our way of living.
Like many of you, we are used to a free society, and CCP is trying to change that, replace that with freedom/democracy/human right with Chinese characteristics.

They think what they do in Xinjiang is morally right because they are fighting "terrorism" when they are using fascist methods.

We are still trying to find a way to do this long haul, but we need US' help, EU's help, Japan, Korea's help. We need all the help we need.

We still have weekly schedule for our protest, it's almost like daily to be honest but they are at a much smaller scale on the weekdays normally.
We haven't given up yet, not because we have hope, but that there's really no going back.

Fight for Freedom, Stand with Hong Kong isn't just a slogan.

CCP will export its model out and the world is although politically complex but it is also simple minded, driven by economy growth.
Any political regime will slowly accept and integrate CCP's model on monitoring and "maintaining" its society.
Unless you, being one of its citizens, remind them that there are individuals' right are to be protected and that you all value them highly.

Here's an album that has some of my best captures covering this protest, I hope this brings a more personal touch than what you see in the news:
https://imgur.com/a/uuDM8gh

here's a video for the recent huge march we had:

Video says it is private.

I wish my nation's leadership was more supportive and was organizing against your oppressors. I share your concerns about the CCP.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Alpharius
Profile Joined September 2018
Vietnam39 Posts
December 21 2019 05:05 GMT
#5
I'm extremely cynical about international relation, so I think the only reason any nation openly support HK now is that they'll make HK a pawn in their "fight" against China.
And I mean support in a sense of direct financial or military support to HK, or take action against China, not some generic statement "We condemn any violence ...."
Your best bet I think is to gather help from people in HK and China mainland, but your action is now actively push away those support.
1. Asking for foreign power support: China has a history of being occupied by several countries in the past and most of Chinese think this is a humiliation. And as I've said earlier, many will consider protester to be mere pawn of other nation against China. So definitely any intervention of foreign power will be seen very poorly by Chinese
2. Protesting is damaging HK economy: I think the income inequality is the bigger concern now than freedom and "Human right", and lengthy protesting is definitely not welcomed.
Personally I think the origins of those protesting is economy: Ridiculous real estate price and income inequality (HK is among top in the world) make young people feel so hopeless in the future.
Amanebak
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Czech Republic528 Posts
December 21 2019 13:41 GMT
#6
Hello, ETisME.
I am glad you wrote this. I have stopped following news and politics because I have a feeling that there is too much evil happenning and I can't do anything about it. But I remember that Pirati, the third largest political party in our country has stated their support for Honk Kong. China warned that they would cancel some cultural program (our orchestras tours in China etc). Pirati retorted that they don't consider a relation to be friendship if threats are used by the Chinese. As a result, a friendship between Prague and China was denounced. But I won't give you any links cause, as I said, I am trying to avoid politics.
Hard to tell about people here but I believe, most of them have strong sympathies too. Although the other parties are hesitant to say anything against China because of money being at stake.
Wish you best luck!
BW
T.O.P. *
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Hong Kong4685 Posts
December 21 2019 21:06 GMT
#7
What's the end game?

The purpose of protesting is to elicit a reaction and response. So what do you think the people in charge (Xi Jinping) think about this?

He's probably troubled by the large amount of un-patriotic people in Hong Kong. If people in mainland China thought this way, the CCP will not have power for long. Thankfully, people in mainland China largely support the CCP and dislike Hong Kong people.

Even though the problem is contained, he probably wants to squash dissent, lest it spreads to other regions of China.

Here's what i think will happen in a next few years. China will propose and put national security and patriotic education into law. The government will invest in police and surveillance to enforce their law. The education system will teach the pro-CCP viewpoint. The judiciary will be packed with pro-CCP judges.

The reality is that the CCP controls China. 50 years of autonomy is a privilege, not a right.
Oracle comes in, Scvs go down, never a miscommunication.
ETisME
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
12338 Posts
December 22 2019 10:57 GMT
#8
On December 22 2019 06:06 T.O.P. wrote:
What's the end game?

The purpose of protesting is to elicit a reaction and response. So what do you think the people in charge (Xi Jinping) think about this?

He's probably troubled by the large amount of un-patriotic people in Hong Kong. If people in mainland China thought this way, the CCP will not have power for long. Thankfully, people in mainland China largely support the CCP and dislike Hong Kong people.

Even though the problem is contained, he probably wants to squash dissent, lest it spreads to other regions of China.

Here's what i think will happen in a next few years. China will propose and put national security and patriotic education into law. The government will invest in police and surveillance to enforce their law. The education system will teach the pro-CCP viewpoint. The judiciary will be packed with pro-CCP judges.

The reality is that the CCP controls China. 50 years of autonomy is a privilege, not a right.

I can see it says you are from Hong Kong, but it seems you aren't too familiar with the overall complexity of the situation.

50 years of autonomy is not a privilege.
It's a method to ensure CCP to keep Hong Kong financial success while it undergo whatever political changes China goes through.

In China, the party has control over your asset, you simply can't have a financial city based upon this economy model and a financial market is what China needs for its yuan to enter the world currency (the currency war).

Up to 70% of FDI of China still passes through Hong Kong.
And one country two system make sure Hong Kong remains a financial hub.
is also a method to disarm Taiwaneses, so that they would eventually integrate with China.

After Xi came into power, the politics progress in China has recessed almost to Mao's era, with unlimited term, consolidated power over party AND army, culture of personal worship etc.
That's not counting the insane amount of destruction over religion and minority.

Macau is what the CCP wants Hong Kong to be (which ironically is why it isn't a financial hub).
And CCP has never seen us as one of them, similar to Taiwan. And we know what they will do to a non obedient area (Xinjiang, Tibet etc)

This affected Hong Kong's autonomous status greatly, we see more integration with China that is putting huge strain in all sectors in Hong Kong.

Anti corruption (ICAC), law system, education (university headmasters mostly pro Beijing), media (most paperback are owned by China firms/gov).

So it's not really about the "end game", it's about doing whatever we can now to fight back.

It's exactly because how desperate the situation is, that we can't afford to just be pessimistic and do nothing.

The future generations will one day ask what did you do when freedom is eroded away in Hong Kong and what's your answer?
Did you speak up? Did you join the march? Did you do your best?

In fact I would say I am already being asked these questions, when the youth are sacrificing decades of jail time to protect the core value of Hong Kong.

So this time we are here to tear down the false hope/dream that by doing nothing, Xi will let HK be.
To me, this is even more of a wishful thinking.

And who knows.
There are period of time when Nazi seemed to have won the war, Dunkirk could have killed off so many allies; Pearl Harbour could have destroyed more US warships; UK could have surrendered when Nazi bombed almost all its airfield.

It's never about the end game. It's about how we respond to the situation and hope for the best.
There's no winning formula, but there's only one losing formula, and that's inaction due to hopelessness.
其疾如风,其徐如林,侵掠如火,不动如山,难知如阴,动如雷震。
T.O.P. *
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Hong Kong4685 Posts
December 22 2019 21:32 GMT
#9
I know CCP is awful. You don’t need to remind me.

Your response is exactly why the protest is a waste. It’s causing havoc for the sake of causing havoc. There’s no path to getting freedom from CCP.

On December 22 2019 19:57 ETisME wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 22 2019 06:06 T.O.P. wrote:
What's the end game?

The purpose of protesting is to elicit a reaction and response. So what do you think the people in charge (Xi Jinping) think about this?

He's probably troubled by the large amount of un-patriotic people in Hong Kong. If people in mainland China thought this way, the CCP will not have power for long. Thankfully, people in mainland China largely support the CCP and dislike Hong Kong people.

Even though the problem is contained, he probably wants to squash dissent, lest it spreads to other regions of China.

Here's what i think will happen in a next few years. China will propose and put national security and patriotic education into law. The government will invest in police and surveillance to enforce their law. The education system will teach the pro-CCP viewpoint. The judiciary will be packed with pro-CCP judges.

The reality is that the CCP controls China. 50 years of autonomy is a privilege, not a right.

I can see it says you are from Hong Kong, but it seems you aren't too familiar with the overall complexity of the situation.

50 years of autonomy is not a privilege.
It's a method to ensure CCP to keep Hong Kong financial success while it undergo whatever political changes China goes through.

In China, the party has control over your asset, you simply can't have a financial city based upon this economy model and a financial market is what China needs for its yuan to enter the world currency (the currency war).

Up to 70% of FDI of China still passes through Hong Kong.
And one country two system make sure Hong Kong remains a financial hub.
is also a method to disarm Taiwaneses, so that they would eventually integrate with China.

After Xi came into power, the politics progress in China has recessed almost to Mao's era, with unlimited term, consolidated power over party AND army, culture of personal worship etc.
That's not counting the insane amount of destruction over religion and minority.

Macau is what the CCP wants Hong Kong to be (which ironically is why it isn't a financial hub).
And CCP has never seen us as one of them, similar to Taiwan. And we know what they will do to a non obedient area (Xinjiang, Tibet etc)

This affected Hong Kong's autonomous status greatly, we see more integration with China that is putting huge strain in all sectors in Hong Kong.

Anti corruption (ICAC), law system, education (university headmasters mostly pro Beijing), media (most paperback are owned by China firms/gov).

So it's not really about the "end game", it's about doing whatever we can now to fight back.

It's exactly because how desperate the situation is, that we can't afford to just be pessimistic and do nothing.

The future generations will one day ask what did you do when freedom is eroded away in Hong Kong and what's your answer?
Did you speak up? Did you join the march? Did you do your best?

In fact I would say I am already being asked these questions, when the youth are sacrificing decades of jail time to protect the core value of Hong Kong.

So this time we are here to tear down the false hope/dream that by doing nothing, Xi will let HK be.
To me, this is even more of a wishful thinking.

And who knows.
There are period of time when Nazi seemed to have won the war, Dunkirk could have killed off so many allies; Pearl Harbour could have destroyed more US warships; UK could have surrendered when Nazi bombed almost all its airfield.

It's never about the end game. It's about how we respond to the situation and hope for the best.
There's no winning formula, but there's only one losing formula, and that's inaction due to hopelessness.

Oracle comes in, Scvs go down, never a miscommunication.
ETisME
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
12338 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-12-23 09:57:59
December 23 2019 09:56 GMT
#10
On December 23 2019 06:32 T.O.P. wrote:
I know CCP is awful. You don’t need to remind me.

Your response is exactly why the protest is a waste. It’s causing havoc for the sake of causing havoc. There’s no path to getting freedom from CCP.

Show nested quote +
On December 22 2019 19:57 ETisME wrote:
On December 22 2019 06:06 T.O.P. wrote:
What's the end game?

The purpose of protesting is to elicit a reaction and response. So what do you think the people in charge (Xi Jinping) think about this?

He's probably troubled by the large amount of un-patriotic people in Hong Kong. If people in mainland China thought this way, the CCP will not have power for long. Thankfully, people in mainland China largely support the CCP and dislike Hong Kong people.

Even though the problem is contained, he probably wants to squash dissent, lest it spreads to other regions of China.

Here's what i think will happen in a next few years. China will propose and put national security and patriotic education into law. The government will invest in police and surveillance to enforce their law. The education system will teach the pro-CCP viewpoint. The judiciary will be packed with pro-CCP judges.

The reality is that the CCP controls China. 50 years of autonomy is a privilege, not a right.

I can see it says you are from Hong Kong, but it seems you aren't too familiar with the overall complexity of the situation.

50 years of autonomy is not a privilege.
It's a method to ensure CCP to keep Hong Kong financial success while it undergo whatever political changes China goes through.

In China, the party has control over your asset, you simply can't have a financial city based upon this economy model and a financial market is what China needs for its yuan to enter the world currency (the currency war).

Up to 70% of FDI of China still passes through Hong Kong.
And one country two system make sure Hong Kong remains a financial hub.
is also a method to disarm Taiwaneses, so that they would eventually integrate with China.

After Xi came into power, the politics progress in China has recessed almost to Mao's era, with unlimited term, consolidated power over party AND army, culture of personal worship etc.
That's not counting the insane amount of destruction over religion and minority.

Macau is what the CCP wants Hong Kong to be (which ironically is why it isn't a financial hub).
And CCP has never seen us as one of them, similar to Taiwan. And we know what they will do to a non obedient area (Xinjiang, Tibet etc)

This affected Hong Kong's autonomous status greatly, we see more integration with China that is putting huge strain in all sectors in Hong Kong.

Anti corruption (ICAC), law system, education (university headmasters mostly pro Beijing), media (most paperback are owned by China firms/gov).

So it's not really about the "end game", it's about doing whatever we can now to fight back.

It's exactly because how desperate the situation is, that we can't afford to just be pessimistic and do nothing.

The future generations will one day ask what did you do when freedom is eroded away in Hong Kong and what's your answer?
Did you speak up? Did you join the march? Did you do your best?

In fact I would say I am already being asked these questions, when the youth are sacrificing decades of jail time to protect the core value of Hong Kong.

So this time we are here to tear down the false hope/dream that by doing nothing, Xi will let HK be.
To me, this is even more of a wishful thinking.

And who knows.
There are period of time when Nazi seemed to have won the war, Dunkirk could have killed off so many allies; Pearl Harbour could have destroyed more US warships; UK could have surrendered when Nazi bombed almost all its airfield.

It's never about the end game. It's about how we respond to the situation and hope for the best.
There's no winning formula, but there's only one losing formula, and that's inaction due to hopelessness.


It's not about how terrible the CCP is, it's about the status in HK is dire enough to demand such a strong resistance.

The people are fine to cause "havoc" in order to raise the stake. It works like a strike.

How else would you get freedom if a 2mil march get no response?
It's not a democratic government anymore.

If anything, this is the most we have ever progressed, by having the US ability to influence on HK politics.
We have entered a status of US and China's power play instead of overwhelmed by CCP political influence.

Or what would you suggest?
其疾如风,其徐如林,侵掠如火,不动如山,难知如阴,动如雷震。
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-12-25 10:27:38
December 25 2019 10:25 GMT
#11
If anything, this is the most we have ever progressed, by having the US ability to influence on HK politics.
We have entered a status of US and China's power play instead of overwhelmed by CCP political influence.


You are crazy if you think this is a good thing for HK.

1. HK isn't a core interest for the US... it's a sideshow at best.
2. But beating up on your cause attracts tons of visibility - for good or ill.
3. The CCP doesn't care about what HK offers China anymore - they don't need international capital to the same degree that they used to; they see a comfortable path to eclipsing the US in absolute GDP terms international investment or no. (Whether this is the right call is an argument for another time).
4. However, the CCP does care about looking weak in front of Chinese citizens; the CCP won't care about losing international capital flows if it feels its absolute sovereignty over all of China is threatened.

Because of 1-4: by tacking so closely to the US, you've made yourselves a pinata for *any Chinese official who wants to look tough in asserting sovereignty without hurting something the US considers a core interest*. HK is going to die a death by a thousand cuts now - expect the PRC to push for Article 23; failing that, the PRC to encourage mainland businesses to decamp for Shanghai and Shenzhen; the US to encourage Western businesses to decamp for Singapore; and then for China to put HK under de facto sanctions for the next 24 years (until 2047). My base case involves HK's GDP shrinking by 20% in the next decade, and direct Chinese rule by 2025.

This is all thanks to the HK protests and district vote, which have induced the CCP to give up on helping the people of HK. It's never wise to to make the person who holds all the guns on your island decide your peace and prosperity is no longer important to them.
Что?
ETisME
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
12338 Posts
December 26 2019 11:00 GMT
#12
On December 25 2019 19:25 Shady Sands wrote:
Show nested quote +
If anything, this is the most we have ever progressed, by having the US ability to influence on HK politics.
We have entered a status of US and China's power play instead of overwhelmed by CCP political influence.


You are crazy if you think this is a good thing for HK.

1. HK isn't a core interest for the US... it's a sideshow at best.
2. But beating up on your cause attracts tons of visibility - for good or ill.
3. The CCP doesn't care about what HK offers China anymore - they don't need international capital to the same degree that they used to; they see a comfortable path to eclipsing the US in absolute GDP terms international investment or no. (Whether this is the right call is an argument for another time).
4. However, the CCP does care about looking weak in front of Chinese citizens; the CCP won't care about losing international capital flows if it feels its absolute sovereignty over all of China is threatened.

Because of 1-4: by tacking so closely to the US, you've made yourselves a pinata for *any Chinese official who wants to look tough in asserting sovereignty without hurting something the US considers a core interest*. HK is going to die a death by a thousand cuts now - expect the PRC to push for Article 23; failing that, the PRC to encourage mainland businesses to decamp for Shanghai and Shenzhen; the US to encourage Western businesses to decamp for Singapore; and then for China to put HK under de facto sanctions for the next 24 years (until 2047). My base case involves HK's GDP shrinking by 20% in the next decade, and direct Chinese rule by 2025.

This is all thanks to the HK protests and district vote, which have induced the CCP to give up on helping the people of HK. It's never wise to to make the person who holds all the guns on your island decide your peace and prosperity is no longer important to them.

Actually I have to disagree.

1. HK isn't a core interest for the US... it's a sideshow at best.

> You aren't completely wrong, but you aren't completely right neither.
The US has lost A LOT of influence in Asia, demanding S.Korea to pay for its military for example.
And the failure of TPP has caused US allies like Japan and India trying to find their own way of economic cooperation.
HK is a sideshow, but it is one of the rare chances that the citizens actually reach out for its help, giving it the perfect excuse to increase its influence in the region.
Not to mention Taiwan also sees Hong Kong as an example and the current party in Taiwan is in favor of the US. A few months ago, the next presidential election was a mystery as to who will win.

There are also other interests such as Hong Kong being the world's 3rd largest spy center, reinforcing its sanction against Iran etc.

2. But beating up on your cause attracts tons of visibility - for good or ill.

> I am not entirely sure what you mean here.

3. The CCP doesn't care about what HK offers China anymore - they don't need international capital to the same degree that they used to; they see a comfortable path to eclipsing the US in absolute GDP terms international investment or no. (Whether this is the right call is an argument for another time).

> Financial sector has always been China's dream.
It's more than simple international capital, it's about trading and making RMB the world's dominate currency, next to USD.
Shanghai had been in development for over 10 years.
I don't want to get too in depth about the why it's important.

But Alibaba went to Hong Kong to get listed.
It's the only financial hub for them and domestic spending requires them to move beyond manufacturing based economy, which they are slowly integrating.

4. However, the CCP does care about looking weak in front of Chinese citizens; the CCP won't care about losing international capital flows if it feels its absolute sovereignty over all of China is threatened.

> This is true, but at the same time, not necessary. China creates agenda for its citizens, not the other way around.
The CCP actually has bowed to its citizens quite recently, several times in fact.
(In guangzhou, the citizens actually chanting the HK slogan, "liberate XX village" and fought the riot police with fireworks etc and got their demands fullfilled within less than a week)


In fact, why Hong Kong is so hard for them to let go, is because they want to build a super economic zone called Greater Bay area.
It's wall street + silicon valley. Wall street being Hong Kong, Silicon Valley being Shenzhen.

That's why they can't just let Hong Kong off the hook. It's part of their big dream project.
But no finance hub is in a highly undemocratic society under a regime with so much control on capital, information and law etc.

===================================================================================================
I think most westerns are still seeing CCP as the Soviets: Hard; Stern, but it really is not.

CCP is slimy, that's why Obama and the EU wanted China to develop well, hoping economic growth and integration with the world will open up its human right and democracy issues.

It's how they took over China, when they joint force with the KMT to fight off the Japs. The KMT was well funded, well trained and well equipped by the US.

infiltration, assimilation, alienation is how they win. It's how they control Xinjiang area.

Some of the largest science research lab and projects are now being done in China, including the gene sequencing, they want a head start on CRISPR.
They are planning to build a particle accelerator, larger than the LHC.

How?
They pay handsome fees to attract the top science group, just like how they are buying the wine vineyards in France and German's manufacturer factories.

We are here to warn you guys.
其疾如风,其徐如林,侵掠如火,不动如山,难知如阴,动如雷震。
TelecoM
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States10667 Posts
January 01 2020 08:46 GMT
#13
Dang I hope things get better for you, that is wild, also I can't see the video unless you give permission. thanks for sharing and stay safe.
AKA: TelecoM[WHITE] Protoss fighting
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