|
MBC Game studios hosted Brood War events ever since 2001. Although MBC Game studios had inferior production values and worse reception from the general populous than their rivals Ongamenet, they had their own distinct approach to competitive Brood War. There were numerous distinctions, but one trait of the MBC Game StarLeagues of the more recent eras would be how it stayed more or less uniform in terms of format from 2007 to 2011.
Ever since GomTV MSL Season 2 had a serious make-over in terms of format, and overall prize pool, MBC Game studios seemed to make it a conscious decision to stay true to the following format:
Double elimination best-of-one format for the round of 32
Single elimination best-of-three format for the round of 16
Single elimination best-of-five format for the round of 8/round of 4/finals
The prize pool remained consistent throughout the times also:
₩500,000 for reaching the round 32
₩2,000,000 for reaching the round of 16
₩3,000,000 for reaching the round of 8
₩5,000,000 for reaching the round of 4
₩20,000,000 for 2nd place
₩50,000,000 for 1st place
The combination of how the tournament stayed almost identical in terms of prize pool, and tournament format, makes it ideal to compare player performances throughout the years.
So more so than any other tournament, the MBC Game StarLeague from 3rd May 2007 to 11th June 2011 is the perfect ground for which to compare and contrast performances. The incentives are entirely identical, and while the format did vary, the number of games required to reach a certain bracket stage remained exactly the same in theory (there were of course exceptions to the rule such as Stork extra games in GomTV MSL S2 after OversKy had to drop out of the tournament after reaching the quarter-finals due to the timing of his military service, and Stork won the wildcard tournament for the replacement slot). Further more, MBC Game StarLeague stuck to the 32 player format, whereas Ongamenet fluctuated between having 28 to 40 players depending on the sponsors, and only stayed relatively consistent in terms of format after the final 16 players were decided.
This means that comparisons between different time frames can be relatively free from statistical problems that arise from inflations. For example, the first ever MBC Game StarLeagues only had one proper best-of-five series played during the entire tournament, whereas MBC Game StarLeagues that happened after GomTV MSL Season 2 all had seven. That difference in format makes it problematic to compare player performances outside the context of their placing, such as trying to compare their win rates, for example.
So after 1,058 games played from May 2007 to June 2011, under more or less identical circumstances, here are some statistics.
Top five players who raked in the most prize pool
1. Flash: ₩183,500,000
2. Jaedong: ₩177,500,000
3. Bisu: ₩130,000,000
4. Calm: ₩65,000,000
5. Mind: ₩60,500,000
Comments: Due to the more top heavy prize pool distribution in contrast to the Ongamenet StarLeague, championships were rewarded much more heavily than consistent high placings. A single championship earned players more prize money than nine semi-final appearances despite the latter being arguably more difficult in some aspects.
As could be expected, it is Flash, Jaedong, and Bisu that top the charts due to their multiple championships. Mind makes it into the list despite only qualifying for five MSL seasons, due to the virtue of being the only MSL champion other than Flash, Jaedong, Bisu, and Calm to reach the semi-finals one other time.
Top five players with the greatest number of individual victories
1. Jaedong: 87 wins
2. Flash: 71 wins
3. Bisu: 52 wins
4. Stork: 36 wins
5. Calm: 35 wins
Comments: This would be a measure of overall body of work. Jaedong overtakes Flash here due to his more consistent performances. Stork overtakes all one time champions such as Mind, fOrGG, Calm, and Hydra despite having reached the finals only once for the MBC Game StarLeague due to his greater body of work.
I think I should mention that Stork had three unplanned victories from the mid-tournament wildcard qualifiers for the quarter-finals after OversKy dropped out in the middle of the tournament. In any other universe where mandatory military service does not exist, Stork should go further down the list.
Top five players with the highest win rate
1. Flash: 67.6%
2. Jaedong: 66.9%
3. Hydra: 65.7%
4. Bisu: 59.8%
5. Calm: 57.4%
Comments: In a list somewhat similar to the overall prize pool earned, Hydra, arguably the most successful zerg (certainly so in terms of prize pool) of towards the end of professional Brood War, makes it into the list partly due to his relatively smaller overall sample size of games, his professional Brood War being cut off mid-ascension. Perhaps it would have been even higher. Perhaps he would have had his career arc completed years after what was an unnatural end of professional Brood War, had it continued, and it would have lowered his initial win rate.
Top five nemeses of the terran race (in terms of greatest number of individual victories against the terran race)
1. Jaedong: 36-24 (60.0%)
2. Flash: 31-16 (66.0%)
3. Bisu: 25-17 (59.5%)
4. Stork: 21-7 (75.0%)
5. Kwanro: 19-12 (61.3%)
Comments: As could be expected, much of Stork's success within the MSL can be attributed to his prowess within his favourite match-up of protoss-versus-terran. Kwanro actually had very impressive showings versus the terran race within the confines of the MBC Game studios, and showed an uncanny ability knock theoretically more sound players such as Flash or Light out of the tournament.
Top five nemeses of the zerg race (in terms of greatest number of individual victories against the zerg race)
1. Flash: 27-16 (62.8%)
2. Calm: 22-15 (59.5%)
3. ZerO: 21-19 (52.5%)
4. Jaedong: 18-11 (62.1%)
5. Kal: 16-16 (50.0%)
Comments: The zerg race as a whole dominated the more modern era of the MBC Game StarLeagues, and the fact that not single player who played a lot of games versus the race had a win rate over 70% showed how powerful the race was.
Top five nemeses of the protoss race (in terms of greatest number of individual victories against the protoss race)
1. Jaedong: 33-8 (80.5%)
2. Bisu: 15-10 (60.0%)
3. Flash: 13-2 (86.7%)
4. JangBi: 13-13 (50.0%)
5. Kal: 12-9 (57.1%)
Comments: Both Jaedong and Flash massacred the protoss race, and while it is not that hard to find players with high win rates versus the protoss race, the fact that the zerg race were the strongest force in the most modern era of MBC Game StarLeagues meant that protoss players in general were somewhat of a scarcity. There is a plethora of protoss players on the list, since some tournaments such as the Clubday MSL had protoss favoured maps that spawned endless protoss-versus-protoss mirror match-ups, the biggest beneficiary of which was probably Bisu.
Top five players of the double elimination best of one format (in terms of greatest number of individual victories within that setting)
1. Jaedong: 19-6 (76.0%)
2. Hwasin: 18-3 (85.7%)
3. Flash: 18-10 (64.3%)
4. Bisu: 17-16 (51.5%)
5. Light: 15-8 (65.2%)
Comments: Hwasin is the only player in the above list to have a 100% success rate of advancing to the round of 16 once he qualified for the round of 32. It either speaks of his monstrous ability to dispatch mediocre opposition, or his abilities within a best of one setting. Since Hwasin never was a ProLeague monstrosity, I personally think it was the former.
Top five players of the best-of-three format (in terms of greatest number of individual victories within that setting)
1. Jaedong: 17-5 (77.3%)
2. Flash: 14-6 (70.0%)
3. Calm: 10-4 (71.4%)
4. ZerO: 9-3 (75.0%)
5. Bisu: 8-5 (61.5%)
Comments: It seems top zerg players in general had incredible success within the best-of-three setting.
Top five players of the best-of-five format (in terms of greatest number of individual victories within that setting)
1. Jaedong: 51-32 (61.4%)
2. Flash: 40-18 (69.0%)
3. Bisu: 27-14 (65.9%)
4. Calm: 15-16 (48.4%)
5. Mind: 14-11 (56.0%)
Comments: In a list somewhat similar to the prize pool rankings, and the overall win rate ranking, the above represents some of the most seasoned veterans within the best-of-five setting within the modern era.
Closing thoughts
The last several years of the MBC Game StarLeague featured some of the most zerg dominated tournaments of all time. Out of the twelve MSL tournaments that were looked into for this blog, there were four tournaments that had zerg finalists not named Jaedong. The protoss race had three tournaments that had non-Bisu protoss players playing in the finals. The terran race only had two tournaments that had non-Flash players in the finals.
Flash is the only member of his race to truly blossom in this era of the MSL. The likes of Hwasin, and Light may have had respectable best-of-one success, but was mediocre once they got into a best-of-series. Mind may have had a decent best-of-five pedigree during his prime, but that excellence only lasted for roughly half a year.
Jaedong dominates many of the lists, but was ironically let down by mutiple zerg-versus-zerg best-of-five defeats, the match-up that brought him so much success elsewhere. Jaedong's zerg-versus-zerg prowess seemed to be inversely proportionate with the overall power of the zerg race, and somewhat ironically, the most successful zerg player of all time was never present in either of the zerg-versus-zerg finals that was held by MBC Game studios, despite being nearly invincible against his own race in other competitive platforms.
In what was otherwise four years of pure excellence, Jaedong was continually let down by three things. Being clapped a couple of times by Hwasin in the round of 32, losing numerous times to his fierce rival Flash, and finally showing major cracks in his favourite match-up of zerg-versus-zerg versus various opponents. Jaedong showed a huge dip in form in his lauded mirror-match up towards the end of his career, when it was in fact one of the best times to be a god in that match-up. Some community members used to say that Jaedong made a foolish deal with the devil to get back at Flash (Jaedong had his best ever zerg-versus-terran form in 2011 after his terrible showing against Flash in 2010, but all his other match-ups saw significant drop in form, and that was what ultimately screwed him over).
In the swarm of numerous zerg players, Bisu was the only significant protoss presence in the MSL, since Stork's legacy mainly lies in his excellent Ongamenet StarLeague records, and other protoss players failed to make much of a mark.
JangBi may have been in multiple MSL finals, but he was such a streaky player that even qualifying for the MSL on his off-day was too much to ask from him. Stork was a reliable presence, but never made much of a mark on leagues hosted by MBC Game studios in terms of impact. Kal was a decent player that was able to showcase some of his protoss-versus-zerg skills, but was stomped by Jaedong far too many times. MSL tended to be the centre stage for zerg specialists such as Bisu and Kal, whereas OGN StarLeague was the preferred individual league for terran specialists such as Stork and BeSt.
 
|
Goes to show how much of a beast JD was back in the day. If he was more healthy today he could've advanced a lot further in the ASL. Going through Kal 3-0 then Flash 3-1 in the semis and Final of the 2009/2010 MSL is pretty awesome. Great read by the way.
Anyone know what the deal was with JD Flash and Bisu being put into the same group during the Group Selection Ceremony in the last MSL? Did they get sick of those 3 owning all the time or something? always wondered about that when I read about it on Liquipedia.
|
On January 09 2018 16:42 NoS-Craig wrote:
Goes to show how much of a beast JD was back in the day. If he was more healthy today he could've advanced a lot further in the ASL. Going through Kal 3-0 then Flash 3-1 in the semis and Final of the 2009/2010 MSL is pretty awesome. Great read by the way.
Anyone know what the deal was with JD Flash and Bisu being put into the same group during the Group Selection Ceremony in the last MSL? Did they get sick of those 3 owning all the time or something? always wondered about that when I read about it on Liquipedia.
That was the NATE MSL, the tournament that had the champion with the highest ever win rate within a single tournament (if we only count MBC Game StarLeague and Ongamenet StarLeague). Jaedong had a 13-1 record for that particular tournament, a noteworthy achievement within the modern era. BoxeR and Nal_rA also had major championships where they only suffered a single defeat in their entire run to the title (Hanbit OGN StarLeague and Stout MSL respectively). Definitely one of the most dominant tournament runs of all time, although the bigger news was the controversy surrounding the third game of the finals.
ABCMart MSL group selection can summarized as follows:
1) Hydra and Great devise a plan to group together all the best non-seeded players (Flash, Bisu, and FanTaSy) into Jaedong's group (Group D), creating a group of death of epic proportions.
2) Great starts things up by switching Reality and Bisu, and sending Sea in place of HyuN.
3) Hydra sends Flash to Group D, and wants to switch FanTaSy for Sea, but FanTaSy asks him not to do so, because both Bisu and FanTaSy are from the same team, and it would make things really awkward during practice (FanTaSy had numerous occasions of playing versus his teammates in individual leagues, and really disliked the experience). Hydra grants him that mercy.
I really didn't like how MBC Game StarLeague gave the seeded players the power to basically rig the brackets in their favour, and you really can't blame Hydra and Great working together to eliminate their most powerful rivals without putting themselves at risk. They simply worked within the given system, and MBC Game's philosophy to cater to the seeded players by making it somewhat easier to retain their privileged position backfired on them.
Part of the reason why legendary players tended to have repeated success within the MBC Game system was how the group stage selection worked. Ongamenet almost went too far in the other direction to create fresh new narratives, and making it more uncomfortable for the successful players to hold onto their glory. MBC Game, on the other hand, was more about wanting successful players to create a legacy for themselves in tournaments they hosted.
From a historical point of view, MBC Game was always more active with seeding high placing players (they preferred to seed the top eight players, compared to the three or four Ongamenet seeds), or using the KeSPA rankings to seed the high performing players away from one another in the brackets to increase the possibility of a blockbuster finals. They also implemented double-elimination brackets to minimize the chance of an upset during their earlier years, or later on, used the best-of-five series quite early on in the tournament. Further more, once the top players gained the numerous seeds available, they were given drastically more power to mold the brackets to their favour for the upcoming tournament than Ongamenet ever allowed. There is a reason why Ongamenet championship was somewhat known for being a cursed blessing (because defending champions would often fail in the upcoming tournament), as a point of comparison.
I would personally guess that Hydra and Great were sick of the same players being spoon fed favourable brackets to have repeated success, and once they overcame the odds, they wanted to show the privileged players what it was like to have the odds stacked against you. I personally don't blame them at all for going all out and showing how ridiculous the system was.
|
I can understand that. You gotta do what you need to do for success. Must've been nice for them to get better brackets that time around. Having the same players being able to change the brackets all the time would be a bit annoying for the other competitors. Very good reply.
I need to watch that 3rd game between Flash and Jaedong. I've heard about that power out a number of times now.
|
Part of Jaedong's continued success lies within the system itself. He was seeded into the following tournament for six consecutive seasons of the MBC Game StarLeague, which is more than any other player in recent history.
It is like a never-ending loop:
1) Jaedong gets a top eight placing and receives a seed.
2) Jaedong has a massive leverage over the non-seeded players and can almost guarantee a free group for himself.
3) Jaedong usually gets out of a group as first place, which means that he'll face a second seed from another group in the round of 16.
4) Jaedong has a near perfect record up to the quarter-finals due to the nature of the somewhat rigged system making it almost impossible for him to risk elimination at the hands of someone really good early on in the tournament.
5) Jaedong reaches the quarter-finals, and the tournament re-arranges the brackets entirely to put the top seeded KeSPA players on opposite ends of the brackets. Jaedong, who always had a really high KeSPA ranking when this bracket re-arrangement system was implemented, usually ends up facing either the lowest ranked player out of the eight, or maybe the second lowest ranked player in the round of eight.
6) Jaedong secures another top four spot due to the system basically making it impossible for it to not happen should Jaedong remain relatively competent and not get upset by a random player.
MBC Game studios tried really hard to make things as easy as possible for the established top players after Avalon MSL, which is incidentally when Jaedong started his streak of six consecutive semi-finals (or above) until MBC Game studios shut themselves down. Part of it has to do with how competent Jaedong was, but much of it had to do with how easy the system allowed him to reach the round of four without much resistance. Of course, the fact that he was the only player of his privileged position to do so speaks much of his excellence, but man was the system rigged.
Too much randomness does hurt the overall quality of the competition, but MBC Game at times went too overboard with manufacturing the brackets to ensure the success of the top players. MBC Game basically did everything in their power to drain all possible narratives from the LeeSsang rivalry in the most articifical manner. Those three back-to-back finals between Flash and Jaedong would never have taken place in a tournament with a more randomized format. Sure they were the best players by far during that time-frame, but MBC Game did everything in their power to make sure they stayed the best.
However, since Ongamenet had a completely contrasting philosophy, there was a healthy balance of both worlds.
In conclusion, I'm not saying Jaedong totally relied on MBC Game's philosophy to succeed, but the situation sometimes felt something like a movie character who is already stronger than his opponents being given the best weaponry. Sure there's no need to artificially level the playing field, but there's a thin line between making sure the best players reach the top, and rigging the system to minimize the possibility of anything else happening.
|
That power out game between Flash and JD was getting good to. I feel JD was going to hold the bottom right but Flash was making one more big push that could've taken it possibly. If they felt like they needed to hand over a win and not re-game then I would've given that game to JD as well. Flash was still on 2 bases unless I'm reading the mini map wrong. Quality only goes up to 480p on the video I'm watching.
Forgot completely why I started watching that game in the first place cause I was so into the game. The battle at the bottom right was intense and that Terran music was kicking in. I forgot this game had a power out and got super bumbed out at the end.
+ Show Spoiler +
Edit: I think they might of wanted the big names to advance easier for better crowds during the finals..
|
Other occasions of six consecutive round of eight (or above) appearances within a single tournament:
NaDa:
1) 1st KPGA Tournament: Round of eight (not one of the two seeds for the next tournament)
2) Advanced from the offline preliminaries -> 2nd KPGA Tournament: 1st place (one of the two seeds for the next tournament)
3) 3rd KPGA Tournament: 1st place (one of the two seeds for the next tournament)
4) 4th KPGA Tournament: 1st place (one of the four seeds for the next tournament)
5) Stout MSL: 2nd place (one of the four seeds for the next tournament)
6) TG Sambo MSL: 3rd place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
7) Hanafos CEN Game MSL: 2nd place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
Comments: Apart from the last two tournaments, where he only needed to progress a single round to gain a seed, the other five tournaments were pretty tough as seeds were given out quite sparingly.
iloveooov
1) TG Sambo MSL: 1st place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
2) Hanafos CEN Game MSL: 1st place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
3) SPRIS MSL: 1st place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
4) YATGK MSL: Round of eight (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
5) UZOO MSL: 4th place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
6) CYON MSL: 3rd place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
7) Pringles MSL S1: Round of eight (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
Comments: iloveoov had it way easier than NaDa, since every single league he participated in, he only needed to advance a single round to gain a seed for the next tournament.
July
1) Gillette OGN StarLeague: 1st place (one of the three seeds for the next tournament)
2) EVER 2004 OGN StarLeague: Round of eight (not one of the three seeds for the next tournament)
3) Advanced from the round of 28 (Dual Tournament) -> IOPS OGN StarLeague: 2nd place (one of the three seeds for the next tournament)
4) EVER 2005 OGN StarLeague: 1st place (one of the three seeds for the next tournament)
5) So1 OGN StarLeague: Round of eight (not one of the three seeds for the next tournament)
6) Advanced from the round of 28 (Dual Tournament) -> Shinhan 2005 OGN StarLeague: 2nd place (one of the three seeds for the next tournament)
Comments: As you can see, July's six consecutive quarter-final appearances were more difficult to achieve within the Ongamenet system due to the fact that only the top three were seeded into the next tournament, whereas MBC Game seeded eight players.
sAviOr
1) UZOO MSL: 1st place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
2) CYON MSL: 2nd place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
3) Pringles MSL S1: 1st place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
4) Pringles MSL S2: 1st place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
5) GomTV MSL S1: 2nd place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
6) GomTV MSL S2: Round of eight (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
7) GomTV MSL S3: Round of four (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
Comments: sAviOr's seven consecutive appearances initially needed next to zero assistance from the format, but towards the tail end of his career the eight seed cap helped him from having to advance from the Survivor Tournament to get into the upcoming MSL season. The selection system for the group stages changed to benefit the seeds much more than before since Pringles MSL S1, which meant that sAviOr could design really easy groups for himself to climb out of.
Jaedong
1) Avalon MSL: Round of four (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
2) NATE MSL: 1st place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
3) Hana Daetoo MSL: 2nd place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
4) Big File MSL: 2nd place (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
5) Pdpop MSL: Round of four (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
6) ABCMart MSL: Round of four (one of the eight seeds for the next tournament)
Comments: Jaedong played in an era where not only was the group selection broken for the seeds (a system implemented ever since Pringles MSL S1), but the quarter-finals would be re-arranged to suit the high ranked players of the KeSPA point system (implemented since Avalon MSL). However, because the tournament expanded to incorporate 32 players, Jaedong needed to advance two separate rounds to get the seed for the next tournament, which was an improvement from the previous system.
|
What are your thoughts on the power out game between Flash and JD? Do you think Jaedong should've been rewared or do you think Flash still had a decent crack of winning that game? I felt like Jaedong was ahead with Flash on just 2 bases.
Wish I was around to witness the meltdown in the live report thread for that one.
|
On January 10 2018 00:33 NoS-Craig wrote:
What are your thoughts on the power out game between Flash and JD? Do you think Jaedong should've been rewared or do you think Flash still had a decent crack of winning that game? I felt like Jaedong was ahead with Flash on just 2 bases.
Wish I was around to witness the meltdown in the live report thread for that one.
I think there's no perfect answer that would satisfy all parties involved.
However I think any top level zerg professional would have closed that game out from that situation. If there was a parallel universe where both sides on that particular day, get to play out that game without any technical difficulties, I would be willing to bet my life savings on Jaedong winning that game, and I'm not a betting man.
+ Show Spoiler +
Professional players always claim that they can win. It is just the way their mentality works. In the above game, Bisu had zero gateways and had ten hydralisks destroying his unprotected base, yet Bisu kept arguing he could win from this position. Sure, stranger things have happened, but it is extremely unlikely.
Flash was obviously extremely upset at the decision, and was not able to play to his full capacity for the rest of the series. There is no telling how Jaedong would have been affected mentally if he was forced into a rematch from what was basically a won game. There is literally no way of having a just and fair series from that point on. What is the lesser of two evils? Resetting a 99% won game? Or taking away that 1% chance from a player that would be willing to fight for that chance with his life?
It is a difficult decision for sure. However, Flash had nothing to lose and everything to gain by arguing for a rematch. If Flash had to bet his life savings playing from that exact situation versus a random professional zerg player such as Crazy, I don't think he would take those odds.
|
Good point. I thought Flash still being on 2 bases would've made it difficult for him to win from there. That last attack he was readying would need to take out that bottom right completely. I think I'll watch that Bisu game tomorrow after work. Too tired to watch it now.
|
On January 10 2018 01:34 NoS-Craig wrote:
Good point. I thought Flash still being on 2 bases would've made it difficult for him to win from there. That last attack he was readying would need to take out that bottom right completely. I think I'll watch that Bisu game tomorrow after work. Too tired to watch it now.
There would have been a lot of things would need to go just right for Flash simply for him to have a chance at the game. This is how it was moments before the game ends abruptly.
Economy
Jaedong has his main almost mined out. He is actively mining from four separate bases, the key expanion is at 7 o'clock position because of the two vespene geysers available. Just before the game ends Jaedong has saturated his 4 o'clock expansion. At this stage of the game, Jaedong will be pumping gas intensive units non-stop from 5 available vespene geysers for the next couple of minutes. Jaedong also expands at 1 o'clock position to spread the terran forces thin.
Flash has his natural almost mined out. 30 seconds before the technical difficulties Flash sends most of his SCVs to the mineral only expansion at 9 o'clock. The moment 9 o'clock expansion gets denied Flash's economy is done for as it is essentially his only source of income.
Upgrades
All zerg units have their armours fully upgraded. Melee attacks are in the process of being fully upgraded (+2 at the point of the technical difficulties). All defiler abilities are fully upgraded.
All bionic troops are fully upgraded. No factory units have been upgraded and the lone factory has been lifted off.
Buildings and tech
Jaedong has three sunken colonies at full health at the 7 o'clock expansion. There is a nydus canal at that expansion.
Flash has eight barracks and two starports. He is fully committed to the SK Terran build, and has no other options.
Troop count near the 7 o'clock expansion
Jaedong has 2 ultralisks, 2 defilers, 5 zerglings and 5 scourges on the ready. Defilers have already consumed zerglings and have enough mana. Ultralisks are low on health.
Flash has 10 marines, 8 medics, and 3 science vessels. Having been in prolonged fights, all three science vessels are extremely low on mana.
Troop movement
All zerg forces are being gathered towards the 7 o'clock position. Jaedong is sending ultralisks on foot instead of using the nydus canal for a potential flank.
Flash is temporarily backing off to join forces with the reinforcements. There are two extra science vessels (meaning no dropships on the ready) and perhaps one to two rotations (8~16) worth of marines and medics.
Flash would inevitably lose the game if:
1) He doesn't immediately kill off the 7 o'clock expansion as well as denying the 1 o'clock expansion to prevent Jaedong from attack moving to victory with mass ultralisks.
There is one timing for this to happen, and Flash doesn't have enough troops to expand and take down expansions at the same time, which is why Flash expanded at the mineral only whilst pushing towards 7 o'clock. His main and natural are basically all mined out, and he can only pump marines and medics from this point on. There is no viable long game plan from this position.
All defilers must die without casting a single spell, which is the only way the marine and medics with a handful of science vessels with barely any mana can break through what Jaedong has for defense.
2) If he fails to secure the mineral only expansion whilst doing the above.
3) If Jaedong doesn't display micro-management abilities of an amateur player
The ultralisks had their armour fully upgraded and were taking 3 damage per hit. If you account for health regeneration, that's about 140 hits required for a single healthy ultralisk to die from a single fully upgraded marine. Since Flash had almost no mana left for his science vessels, he would have used up all his mana for Jaedong's defilers.
Every single marine death results in catostrophic consequences for Flash, while Jaedong has infinitely more room for micro-management mistakes.
I don't think people who think that Flash had a decent chance were paying full attention to the game, or have unique definitions of what constitutes a decent chance. If there was a chance, it was miniscule considering the number of available options, and the level of mistakes required from the opponent. Given the circumstances, I would go as far as to say that Jaedong at his current level of play would defeat Flash with his current level of play the vast majority of the time from this situation, and Jaedong has a sub-20% win rate versus Flash in recent months. Jaedong during his prime? I think it is a severe understatement to merely say it was difficult for Flash to win from this position.
I have yet to come across anybody who could logically narrate a scenario of what could have potentially happened for Flash for him to win this particular game without depending on a series of extreme unlikely situations to take place one after another.
Like I said before, even Bisu argued for a rematch for the game I posted because I guess theoretically those ten hydralisks can suddenly turn round to attack the natural instead of finishing off the main, and get perfectly surrounded by the probes, and instead of micro-managing his way out July could theoretically have had a brain freeze and spam move non-stop until all his hydralisks died, while Bisu rebuilt his gateways in his main base. In a similar manner, Jaedong could theoretically send all of his defilers into Flash's line of fire for no particular reason and let them die without casting a single spell, and then proceed to attack move his ultralisks one by one to die without doing anything, and then allow Flash to keep his mineral only expansion running while losing his 7 o'clock expansion to allow Flash back into the game.
Regardless of the situation, neither a remake or a forced forfeit would have remedied the circucmstances. All I know is that Jaedong was basically a couple of minutes away from forcing a surrender from Flash had the game proceeded in a natural manner.
|
Thanks for the informative reply. I wasn't sure how much Flash had mined his 2 bases at that point. I agree with you, JD would need to muck up badly to give Flash any chance of victory.
Sad Jaedong isn't as scary as he once was. I guess those health problems and all the time he's spent practicing has caught up with him. However, I still see him beat Flash and many others on stream from time to time. His form seems to fluctuate up and down quite a bit these days.
|
Fantastic post and thread, good read whilst on the way to work.
|
Returning to topic, the two year period of August 2008 to September 2010 was a truly iconic period of professional Brood War. It had the following aspects consistent throughout its two year time frame:
1) The entire ProLeague season lasted for roughly a year, and the regular season consisted of 44 best-of-five series for each of the 12 teams involved, and 11 best-of-seven series with a special format where the winner stayed on (Winners League) for each of the 12 teams involved. There were some variance in the play-off stages but the difference was negligable once you consider how much the ProLeague changed throughout the years.
2) Every three to four months there was the OGN StarLeague that had a format revamp for Incruit OGN StarLeague (the details of which I will not mention now).
3) Every three to four months there was the MBC Game StarLeague that kept its format revamp for GomTV MSL S2.
4) Every off-season had WCG Korea to decide the three participants for the World Cyber Games.
This is the zenith of the modern professional Brood War scene as many remember it, and it lasted for only a two year time frame before sponsorships became harder to get after the match-fixing scandal and public lawsuits that Blizzard launched versus both Ongamenet and MBC Game. After late 2010, the individual league count took a drastic hit, and the six major individual leagues per year that people were used to for many years were no longer happening. Before late 2008, the ProLeague didn't have such vast scheduling and split time between hosting one-versus-one games, and two-versus-two games.
Because I value consistency in format and don't want the data to be influenced too heavily by change of circumstances rather than change in form of the players, I will not include the GomTV Classics, since team participation varied across the seasons. Some players such as Leta never took part. Some players like Bisu only took part only once instead of all three times like some of the other players. Ideally speaking, a team's decision to enter the tournament or not, should not influence their data, but since it did, I will not look into the data at all because there's way too much data variation depending on the circumstances that has nothing to do with actual player form or performance. The data should represent who performed the best across multiple tournaments, not who was lucky enough to be on teams that allowed them to enter certain competitions.
Since every platform of competition I chose had almost identical formats they stuck to, this truly is the only time frame that player performance can be compared and contrasted with any clarity. In other words, I can just look into their overall records without having to worry too much about drastic format changes that can skew the data.
Another time frame that could be mentioned is April 2007 to August 2008, just before both the OGN StarLeauge and the ProLeague went through major revamps in terms of format. However, since this time frame is shorter and therefore has less overall data to analyze, I'll leave this period for another day.
So here it is, the top five players with the greatest number of individual victories for each of these platforms (all of which took place between August 2008 and September 2010):
Top five players with the greatest number of individual victories (Shinhan 2008/2009 ProLeague ~ Shinhan 2009/2010 ProLeague)
1. Flash: 115-37 (75.7%)
2. Jaedong: 115-47 (71.0%)
3. Leta: 92-50 (64.8%)
4. Bisu: 85-38 (69.1%)
5. Light: 85-49 (63.4%)
Top five players with the greatest number of individual victories (Incruit OGN StarLeague ~ Korean Air OGN StarLeague S2)
1. Flash: 44-16 (73.3%)
2. Jaedong: 39-17 (69.6%)
3. Stork: 38-20 (65.5%)
4. FanTaSy: 38-24 (61.3%)
5. EffOrt: 27-16 (62.8%)
Top five players with the greatest number of individual victories (Clubday MSL ~ Big File MSL)
1. Jaedong: 47-25 (65.3%)
2. Flash: 44-19 (69.8%)
3. JangBi: 30-18 (62.5%)
4. Calm: 25-15 (62.5%)
5. Bisu: 24-15 (61.5%)
Top five players with the greatest number of individual victories (WCG 2009 ~ WCG 2010)
1. Jaedong: 14-6 (70.0%)
2. Flash: 12-5 (70.6%)
3. Kal: 11-5 (68.8%)
4. Bisu: 10-4 (71.4%)
5. EffOrt: 8-9 (47.1%)
This particular time-frame can be summarized as the peak years of the LeeSsang era, where Jaedong was the dominant force initially for 2009, and Flash became even more of a dominant force in 2010. Their overall records across various tournaments are fairly even because Jaedong was more consistent within this two year time-frame (which is why Jaedong was there for most of Flash's finals when Flash was unstoppable, and why Flash wasn't there for Jaedong's finals when Jaedong was hitting his stride), whereas most of Flash's statistics are confined to his extremely potent 2010 season.
It is often underestimated how amazing Leta was during this time-frame for his team in within the ProLeague setting. Ongamenet Sparkyz was a total dumpster of a team without Leta, and Leta carried his team with exceptional ACE match performances (he is the record holder for the most ProLeague ACE match victories within a single season, and the all-time number one player for the most number of ProLeague ACE match victories during the regular ProLeague season alongside Jaedong, made all the more impressive by the fact that Leta has the better win rate in them). It is important to note that Ongamenet Sparkyz was the epicentre of the match-fixing scandal, and Justin, the disgusting fuck, was leaking Leta replays to players such as Hwasin in order to make it easier to fix the matches against his own teammate. Leta perservered against all-odds to hold his team somewhat together under impossible situations.
Stork and Bisu both are not that well represented during this time-frame. They both had moments of greatness as well as months of mediocre performances, but Stork hit his prime before this particular time-frame, and Bisu had his individual league magnificence in 2007, and a ProLeague-only rejuvenation in 2011. The moment I extend the time-frame to include all the good data for both of these players, the whole equilibrium of the overall data gets fucked over due to how drastic the format changes were for various platforms of competition that I did not decide to do that. Bisu did turn things around in the ProLeague after years of failing to make a name for himself within that setting, but Stork didn't have much to take pride in within this time-frame apart from his dramatic Incruit OGN StarLeague triumph. His actual peak as a player in my opinion, came back when he was actually gathering all his silver medals.
|
I felt kind of bad only representing the best years of Jaedong and Flash, so I decided to look into the time-frame of April 2007 to August 2008, another extended period of time (slightly longer than a year) where all four platforms of competition (ProLeague, OGN StarLeague, MSL, and WCG Korea) remained relatively the same in terms of format.
ProLeague during this era consisted of two half-year rounds. For each round, every team played 22 best-of-five series each that had both one-versus-one games and two-versus-two games for the regular season. This meant that ProLeague one-versus-one scheduling was basically doubled after the format revamp for the Shinhan 2008/2009 ProLeague season.
Ongamenet before the format revamp for Incruit OGN StarLeague didn't count the round of 40 as the main tournament (for some reason they counted the round of 40 as part of the StarLeague for what I believe to be more branding reasons rather than competitive reasons, since they seeded the top four players into the round of 16). Instead they relied on double-elimination best-of-one format for the round of 28 (which they labelled as Dual Tournaments) to decide the final 16 players for the OGN StarLeague. There also was a third/fourth place decider to decide the third seed for the next OGN StarLeague, the fourth place player had to start again from the Dual Tournament. Ongamenet StarLeague during this era had more prestige since only the top 16 players were considered StarLeague material instead of the massive inflation to 40 over the next couple of years.
Although for the last ever OGN StarLeague before the revamp, EVER 2008 OGN StarLeague changed the title of Dual Tournament (round of 28) to OGN StarLeague, I will only count round of 16 and above because that's how it was for the other three OGN StarLeagues during this time frame. Consistency is more important than branding semantics.
Top five players with the greatest number of individual victories (Shinhan 2007 ProLeague R1 ~ Shinhan 2008 ProLeague)
1. Stork: 43-19 (69.4%)
2. free: 42-31 (57.5%)
3. Sea: 41-15 (73.2%)
4. Jaedong: 41-21 (66.1%)
5. Anytime: 39-18 (68.4%)
*One-verus-one matches only, two-versus-two games are not counted
Top five players with the greatest number of individual victories (Daum OGN StarLeague ~ EVER 2008 OGN StarLeague)
1. Stork: 25-17 (59.5%)
2. Flash: 24-17 (58.5%)
3. Bisu: 17-16 (51.5%)
4. Jaedong: 15-6 (71.4%)
5. July: 14-10 (58.3%)
Top five players with the greatest number of individual victories (GomTV MSL S2 ~ Arena MSL)
1. Bisu: 25-16 (61.0%)
2. Jaedong: 23-8 (74.2%)
3. Mind: 23-15 (60.5%0
4. fOrGG: 17-8 (68.0%)
5. Kal: 17-12 (58.6%)
Top five players with the greatest number of individual victories (WCG 2007 ~ WCG 2008)
1. Stork: 13-5 (72.2%)
2. Hwasin: 11-5 (68.8%)
3. Jaedong: 10-3 (76.9%)
4. sAviOr: 8-5 (61.5%)
5. free: 8-10 (44.4%)
This is the era of Taek-Beng, when Stork and Bisu ruled the scene instead of LeeSsang. Stork, reached three finals during this period (losing all three times to the other members of Taek-Beng-LeeSsang), as well as being the undisputed ace player for Samsung Khan back when they were probably the best team around.
Stork was on a roll during this time frame, collecting all the silver medals available, and in an attempt to replicate YellOw, the original Kong, Stork did his best to win all the relatively meaningless side events such as the WCG 2007 Grand Finals. Stork was arguably the best ProLeague performer both in terms of individual performance and trophies gathered for his team. There were other stellar ProLeague protoss aces such as free and Anytime, and Sea made a name for himself as the best ProLeague terran player of this era.
Bisu during this time-frame was an individual league monster, being the best player in the tournaments hosted by MBC Game, as well as reaching back-to-back semi-finals in the OGN StarLeague, a tournament he notoriously had incredibly bad performances in. Although Bisu never reached the finals of the OGN StarLeague, his overall body of work for this particular time-frame was more impressive than the likes of July, who was more of a one hit wonder in 2008 as he made a surprise comeback.
Flash was still very young during this period of time, and although he was the youngest ever OGN StarLeague champion at a tender age of 15, his overall performance across the board wasn't as impressive as the other more established top players such as Bisu or Stork. In fact, during this time-frame, Flash was actually compared to Mind, another terran prodigy who won his first and only MSL title despite only being 16 years old at the time.
Jaedong was starting make a strong case for himself as a world contender, but while mechanically speaking he probably further ahead of the field than any other point during his career, he had yet to mature as a player and was known for being a mechanically perfect monster with the brain size of a peanut, and was likened to a soulless machine, especially more so since the most recent zerg legend before him happened to be sAviOr, one of the most cerebral players the scene had ever had.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
