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A fact based Power Rank of Power Rankers

Blogs > mahrgell
Post a Reply
1 2 Next All
mahrgell
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Germany3943 Posts
June 04 2016 22:11 GMT
#1
Disclaimer: All mentioned persons may forgive me and please read this with [irony] tags. You are doing a great job! (at writing, not at predicting)


Yeah, we all love Power Ranks But sometimes there are so many experts powerranking. Who to trust? Who to dismiss. Well... If you managed to read the head line of this blog, or if you are just into Power Ranks, you know the answer already.

Just make a Power Rank of Power Rankers. So this is, what we are gonna do here. But, there is one important change. This Power Rank will be fact based. WHAT? Herecy! Power Ranks are by definition not allowed to be based on facts. Subjective and one sided bias is a key part of any Power Ranks. Well... Don't worry. If you believe this Power Ranks will have more meaning about reality than any other Power Rank... Nah. But we just love putting things into some weird order for even weirder reason, and than hope that at least some part of our order turns true. Like 50% is a good goal to aim at. Otherwise you may be considered a troll.


Who are we Power Ranking? All the TL-"Experts" from the TL Power Rank. You will soon understand, why we have to always put "Experts" in quotation marks...
What "facts" are we using? The groupstage results of the Manila Major.
How are we using those "facts"? Well, we looked for the perfect algorithm (c) to compare their predictions to what happened so far. And then we declare the winner to be the eternal Power Rank King, who you should trust all your betting items and esports dollar. And well... then there are those who you should not even trust a used chewing gum...
So how does this awesome algorithm of ultimate truth work? Well... simple, we just look at all 20 sets played so far, and compare them to the bold predictions of our "experts".
How do we compare them? If the "Expert" rated the winner of the set higher... Good for him. If he did not... Shame on him. There are 3 categories:
a) Correct%: Yo, how many predictions are right. Told you, all kind of scientific masterminds worked on this awesome algorithm, and this is what came out...
b) Score: This time there are points for each prediction. They are simply: prediction rank of the loser minus prediction rank of the winner. So if you had them close together , you won't gain or win many points. If you said, that one team are far better than the other, they better fu**ing win... Otherwise you are doomed.
c) Failscore: Okay, let's admit it. Every Power Ranker knows it. The readers of Power Ranks never care about your correct predictions. Only about your fails. So this is what we are doing here. We ignore all correct predictions. And just look at how heavily you failed. So this is the same as the previous category, just that you won't get plus points, only minus points. Great, isn't it? But that is what the readers want.

Oh yeah, and Score and Failscore are averaged per game.


But let's get to business. The Power Rank.

#8 ShiaoPI: The Mineski of Power Rankers. Only half his predictions turned out true. Let's talk about random guessing. Can LD writers be demoted to liquidlegends? At least he still managed a positive score, but the worst one of all writers. Which brings us back to Mineski. Without them, he wouldn't have achieved that positive score. So soulmates they are.
Okay... Not all is bad. While he failed quite hard, his failscore is surprisingly the best of all writers. How, you ask? Well... The answer is: DC vs Wings. They played twice, and rekd pretty much everyone massively. ShiaoPI got it wrong as well, but at least not as horribly wrong as others. Then again, he was never really right either...
Correct%: 50% - Score: 1.00 - Failscore: -1.90

#7 not awarded: Yeah, we have to leave a gap here. Just to show how big the difference between ShiaoPI and the rest of the pack was!

#6 tehh4ck3r: Usually you should be demoted 10 ranks for such a name. Please do that in your mind and consider tehh4ck3r #16. 60% prediction rate is better than random guessing! But his Score is underwhelming, his failscore overwhelming... So his predictions can be summarized as "TL good, Mineski bad, never heard of all the other teams". If you are thinking about using his advice for betting your rares... I suggest to reconsider it. Unless you a pure thrill junkie. But in that case, have you heard about roulette?
Correct%: 60% - Score: 1.15 - Failscore: -2.40

#5 Liquiddota: So... if you combine a bunch of expert opinions, you getter an even more expertish opinion? Wrong. Sometimes you just get random gibberish. Like here. 60% prediction rate is okay at best, the score is terrible. And the forum crowd always knew, the failscore is astronomical. But luckily their dota team is making up for it. And who needs good predictions, when your team is trashing everyone?
Correct%: 60% - Score: 1.25 - Failscore: -2.50

#4 SlottedPig: Another one of those 60%ers. But for that, he did actually quite well. He may be a talent to watch out in the future. Not perfect yet, but showing potential. So if you are looking for whos PowerRank to trust for TI X... SlottedPig is your man. Short term, there are still better options.
Correct%: 60% - Score: 1.60 - Failscore: -2.35

#3 UberXD You know those guys, who go allin, whenever they see a chance? UberXD is this kind of guy. He loses big, wins big. In the end, he won more often than he lost(65%), and while his Failscore is the worst of all "experts", he still has a decent overall score. You like excitement, swings and never got attached to your rares anyway? Just any rares, yeah, who cares about which ones? Read UberXDs PowerRanks. Conservative bettors better steer clear.
Correct%: 65% - Score: 1.50 - Failscore: -2.55

#2 OmniEulogy 65% prediction rate, an okay score, a low fail score. OmniEulogy is the conservative counterpart to UberXD. Less fluctuation, just steady predictions that are sometimes even right. If for some reason you can not find the predictions of #1, OmniEulogies will be okay too. Not as flashing, but all around okay. Which is enough in this field to get to #2
Correct%: 65% - Score: 1.50 - Failscore: -2.20

#1 Sn0_Man: So if someone may have predicted, that we would about a dozen Helm of Dominators(including on witch doctor) in a game, to counter mega creeps with dominated mega creeps... This man is Sn0_Man. Yeah, still only 65% of his predictions turned out true. But when he was right, he did it in style. Like a poker pro, he lost small and won big. So send him all your rares, and let him multiply them. (I don't guarantee for your rares, won't pay any refunds for accidental or not so accidental losses and am not receiving any share from Sn0-Man for this advertisement. Psht, Sn0_man, just send me a PM so we can discuss which couriers I need) Okay, his dominance came of predicting DC>Wings. But for that alone he deserves #1! So here is our Champion!
Correct%: 65% - Score: 1.95 - Failscore: -2.00

So, I hope you enjoyed this, so you better know in the future who to trust and who to dismiss.
I may update this, once the tournament has finished. Let's see if this Power Rank at least can stay true for so long.

Oh, and for those who need all the "data"... Here is a screenshot of my oh so great openoffice script:
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
June 04 2016 23:44 GMT
#2
hahaha a well-played twist
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
uberxD
Profile Blog Joined September 2012
412 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-06-05 04:31:29
June 05 2016 04:22 GMT
#3
Ok this is hilarious and top #3 is not bad

EDIT: plz don't let Sn0 read this ayyyyyy
<-- occasionally in English - @uberdota
Tephus
Profile Joined May 2011
Cascadia1753 Posts
June 05 2016 04:25 GMT
#4
Well done.
AdministratorDirector of Esports
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
June 05 2016 05:34 GMT
#5
Hahahaha nice one!
Can we just go by failscore? :>
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
TheEmulator
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
28090 Posts
June 05 2016 05:59 GMT
#6
Sn0_Man is already obnoxious as fuck, THANKS DUDE
Administrator
Sn0_Man
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
Tebellong44238 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-06-05 06:04:44
June 05 2016 06:03 GMT
#7
i knew i was the greatest
i was also a lot more right after day 1 lol day 2 was rough
LiquidDota StaffSCIENTISTS BAFFLED | 3275929302
uberxD
Profile Blog Joined September 2012
412 Posts
June 05 2016 06:12 GMT
#8
On June 05 2016 14:34 ShiaoPi wrote:
Hahahaha nice one!
Can we just go by failscore? :>


NO
<-- occasionally in English - @uberdota
OmniEulogy
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Canada6592 Posts
June 05 2016 07:40 GMT
#9
xD I enjoyed reading this. It's quite funny
LiquidDota Staff
les
Profile Joined February 2010
143 Posts
June 05 2016 13:25 GMT
#10
Maybe our experts anticipated the final results and not the group stages? I'm hyped for iteration #2 of this power rank. Way more than for the Major finals since liquid are just going to raep em all!
SlottedPig
Profile Joined November 2014
United States52 Posts
June 05 2016 22:30 GMT
#11
next time (or even by the end of the major) i'll be rank 1. watch out everyone!
DavoS
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States4605 Posts
June 07 2016 18:35 GMT
#12
SnoMan believed in the the great NA players on DC and that is what makes him the greatest
"KDA is actually the most useless stat in the game" Aui_2000
Sn0_Man
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
Tebellong44238 Posts
June 07 2016 18:37 GMT
#13
I'm also one of the vanishingly few people on this site to have actually met the only NA player on DC xd
LiquidDota StaffSCIENTISTS BAFFLED | 3275929302
mahrgell
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Germany3943 Posts
June 07 2016 21:04 GMT
#14
Uhm... After today, Sn0_Mans glory is fading quickly... 3/6 This wasn't his day.
uberxD
Profile Blog Joined September 2012
412 Posts
June 07 2016 21:07 GMT
#15
On June 08 2016 06:04 mahrgell wrote:
Uhm... After today, Sn0_Mans glory is fading quickly... 3/6 This wasn't his day.


Most of us had some expectations on Secret and/or EG stepping up their game rofl
<-- occasionally in English - @uberdota
mahrgell
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Germany3943 Posts
June 07 2016 21:28 GMT
#16
Well... you can not explain your failure with "most of us". Nana! That's not how it works.

Just today:
ShiapPI 5/6
SlottedPig 5/6
OmniEulogy 4/6
tehh4ck3r 4/6
Sn0_Man 3/6
UberXD 3/6 (and negative points!!!)

Also looking at the matches:
TL MVP 1/6 <<<pointwise it had basically no effect... but it trashed the Correct% ^^
OG Navi 6/6
Col Wings 4/6
Alliance Mineski 6/6
VG.R EG 4/6
Empire Secret 3/6

Oh, and for the lolz I checked, how many points each team brought/cost each "expert". Your Wings prediction is currently leading for the worst prediction! (together with tehh4ck3r LGD)
Probably gonna throw those stats out in the summary after the tourney.


Sn0_Man
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
Tebellong44238 Posts
June 07 2016 21:28 GMT
#17
my wings is the best xd
LiquidDota StaffSCIENTISTS BAFFLED | 3275929302
uberxD
Profile Blog Joined September 2012
412 Posts
June 07 2016 21:40 GMT
#18
On June 08 2016 06:28 mahrgell wrote:

Oh, and for the lolz I checked, how many points each team brought/cost each "expert". Your Wings prediction is currently leading for the worst prediction! (together with tehh4ck3r LGD)
Probably gonna throw those stats out in the summary after the tourney.



Yep putting wings second will end up costing a lot
But I mean my brackets also look awful with the results given
<-- occasionally in English - @uberdota
konadora *
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Singapore66183 Posts
June 10 2016 06:21 GMT
#19
i thought azarkon would be first
POGGERS
ASoo
Profile Joined November 2010
2864 Posts
June 13 2016 03:26 GMT
#20
So, how do these hold up after the brackets?
1 2 Next All
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