EPTYeah, we all love Power Ranks But sometimes there are so many experts powerranking. Who to trust? Who to dismiss. Well... If you managed to read the head line of this blog, or if you are just into Power Ranks, you know the answer already.
Just make a Power Rank of Power Rankers. So this is, what we are gonna do here. But, there is one important change. This Power Rank will be fact based. WHAT? Herecy! Power Ranks are by definition not allowed to be based on facts. Subjective and one sided bias is a key part of any Power Ranks. Well... Don't worry. If you believe this Power Ranks will have more meaning about reality than any other Power Rank... Nah. But we just love putting things into some weird order for even weirder reason, and than hope that at least some part of our order turns true. Like 50% is a good goal to aim at. Otherwise you may be considered a troll.
Who are we Power Ranking? All the TL-"Experts" from the TL Power Rank. You will soon understand, why we have to always put "Experts" in quotation marks...
What "facts" are we using? The groupstage results of the Manila Major.
How are we using those "facts"? Well, we looked for the perfect algorithm (c) to compare their predictions to what happened so far. And then we declare the winner to be the eternal Power Rank King, who you should trust all your betting items and esports dollar. And well... then there are those who you should not even trust a used chewing gum...
So how does this awesome algorithm of ultimate truth work? Well... simple, we just look at all 20 sets played so far, and compare them to the bold predictions of our "experts".
How do we compare them? If the "Expert" rated the winner of the set higher... Good for him. If he did not... Shame on him. There are 3 categories:
a) Correct%: Yo, how many predictions are right. Told you, all kind of scientific masterminds worked on this awesome algorithm, and this is what came out...
b) Score: This time there are points for each prediction. They are simply: prediction rank of the loser minus prediction rank of the winner. So if you had them close together , you won't gain or win many points. If you said, that one team are far better than the other, they better fu**ing win... Otherwise you are doomed.
c) Failscore: Okay, let's admit it. Every Power Ranker knows it. The readers of Power Ranks never care about your correct predictions. Only about your fails. So this is what we are doing here. We ignore all correct predictions. And just look at how heavily you failed. So this is the same as the previous category, just that you won't get plus points, only minus points. Great, isn't it? But that is what the readers want.
Oh yeah, and Score and Failscore are averaged per game.
But let's get to business. The Power Rank.
#8 ShiaoPI: The Mineski of Power Rankers. Only half his predictions turned out true. Let's talk about random guessing. Can LD writers be demoted to liquidlegends? At least he still managed a positive score, but the worst one of all writers. Which brings us back to Mineski. Without them, he wouldn't have achieved that positive score. So soulmates they are.
Okay... Not all is bad. While he failed quite hard, his failscore is surprisingly the best of all writers. How, you ask? Well... The answer is: DC vs Wings. They played twice, and rekd pretty much everyone massively. ShiaoPI got it wrong as well, but at least not as horribly wrong as others. Then again, he was never really right either...
Correct%: 50% - Score: 1.00 - Failscore: -1.90
#7 not awarded: Yeah, we have to leave a gap here. Just to show how big the difference between ShiaoPI and the rest of the pack was!
#6 tehh4ck3r: Usually you should be demoted 10 ranks for such a name. Please do that in your mind and consider tehh4ck3r #16. 60% prediction rate is better than random guessing! But his Score is underwhelming, his failscore overwhelming... So his predictions can be summarized as "TL good, Mineski bad, never heard of all the other teams". If you are thinking about using his advice for betting your rares... I suggest to reconsider it. Unless you a pure thrill junkie. But in that case, have you heard about roulette?
Correct%: 60% - Score: 1.15 - Failscore: -2.40
#5 Liquiddota: So... if you combine a bunch of expert opinions, you getter an even more expertish opinion? Wrong. Sometimes you just get random gibberish. Like here. 60% prediction rate is okay at best, the score is terrible. And the forum crowd always knew, the failscore is astronomical. But luckily their dota team is making up for it. And who needs good predictions, when your team is trashing everyone?
Correct%: 60% - Score: 1.25 - Failscore: -2.50
#4 SlottedPig: Another one of those 60%ers. But for that, he did actually quite well. He may be a talent to watch out in the future. Not perfect yet, but showing potential. So if you are looking for whos PowerRank to trust for TI X... SlottedPig is your man. Short term, there are still better options.
Correct%: 60% - Score: 1.60 - Failscore: -2.35
#3 UberXD You know those guys, who go allin, whenever they see a chance? UberXD is this kind of guy. He loses big, wins big. In the end, he won more often than he lost(65%), and while his Failscore is the worst of all "experts", he still has a decent overall score. You like excitement, swings and never got attached to your rares anyway? Just any rares, yeah, who cares about which ones? Read UberXDs PowerRanks. Conservative bettors better steer clear.
Correct%: 65% - Score: 1.50 - Failscore: -2.55
#2 OmniEulogy 65% prediction rate, an okay score, a low fail score. OmniEulogy is the conservative counterpart to UberXD. Less fluctuation, just steady predictions that are sometimes even right. If for some reason you can not find the predictions of #1, OmniEulogies will be okay too. Not as flashing, but all around okay. Which is enough in this field to get to #2
Correct%: 65% - Score: 1.50 - Failscore: -2.20
#1 Sn0_Man: So if someone may have predicted, that we would about a dozen Helm of Dominators(including on witch doctor) in a game, to counter mega creeps with dominated mega creeps... This man is Sn0_Man. Yeah, still only 65% of his predictions turned out true. But when he was right, he did it in style. Like a poker pro, he lost small and won big. So send him all your rares, and let him multiply them. (I don't guarantee for your rares, won't pay any refunds for accidental or not so accidental losses and am not receiving any share from Sn0-Man for this advertisement. Psht, Sn0_man, just send me a PM so we can discuss which couriers I need) Okay, his dominance came of predicting DC>Wings. But for that alone he deserves #1! So here is our Champion!
Correct%: 65% - Score: 1.95 - Failscore: -2.00
So, I hope you enjoyed this, so you better know in the future who to trust and who to dismiss.
I may update this, once the tournament has finished. Let's see if this Power Rank at least can stay true for so long.
Oh, and for those who need all the "data"... Here is a screenshot of my oh so great openoffice script:
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![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/m5dunBq.png)
