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Variability in the SC2 ladder

Blogs > PickyProtoss
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PickyProtoss
Profile Blog Joined April 2014
Ireland74 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-02-09 22:31:30
February 09 2016 16:07 GMT
#1
On the 17th, 25th of December and the 2nd of January, I scraped the first 2,111 pages of the Starcraft 2 ladder on http://nios.kr/sc2/global/1v1/lotv/1.

On the 17th of December there were 211,086 players
On the 25th of December there were 211,012 players
On the 2th of January there were 210,868 players

(Please be aware that since then I have read on Reddit that there were problems with this website showing inaccurate game scores)

First, I removed all of the duplicate names within the datasets. This is problematic, because it has the unintended consequence of removing many barcodes, i.e., IIIIIIIII, still this is a necessary evil. Also using multiple accounts with the same name across different regions are excluded.

On the 17th of December there were 149,919 players
On the 25th of December there were 149,518 players
On the 02th of January there were 141,666 players

Because I have 3 datasets, I can compare Ladder time 1 to Ladder time 2 and Ladder time 2 to Ladder time 3.

A dataset containing names which corresponded on both Ladder time 1 and Ladder time 2 was created. This dataframe consisted of 83,965 players (I wonder how the difference between time 1 and time 2 can be so high! probably due to removing duplicates and looking for unique names consistent across time 1 and 2). Thereafter, I added the wins and losses columns to get a measure of overall games played.

At time 1, an average of 62 games were played per player.
At time 2, an average of 71 games were played per player.
At time 3, an average of 80 games were played per player.

[image loading]

I then removed any player whose number of games played at time 1 was equal to number of games played at time 2 – essentially removing any player who did not play a game. The final dataset contained 33,815 players. These fit the criteria of having played at least 1 game over the two week period and only having 1 unique name on the ladder at time 1 and time 2.

This is the sample which I will use to describe the propensity to rank-up your league.

First I changed the league from levels of a factor to numbers, in other words, Bronze was changed to 1, Silver was changed to 2, etc. At this point I checked which players had ranked up from Time 1 to Time 2. The logic is if league 2 > league 1 score the person ranked up, if league 2 < league 1 score the person ranked down and if league 2 = league 1 score the person remained in the same league.

From time 1 to time 2, 412 player’s league standing went down, whereas 182 player’s league standing went up.

[image loading]

The same steps were undertaken for ladder time 2 to ladder time 3. From time 2 to time 3, 235 players standing went up, while 182 players went down.

[image loading]

These results do appear rather weird, but please be aware of the assumptions undertaken during the analysis. For instance, removing duplicates, making sure that players played across the two weeks. I have also made my analysis, which was undertaken in R, and data files available if anyone would like to check for errors - I am sure there are flaws in my code.

R
Time 1 data
Time 2 data
Time 3 data

brickrd
Profile Blog Joined March 2014
United States4894 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-02-09 20:55:07
February 09 2016 20:54 GMT
#2
i don't understand why you removed duplicate names, can you explain that?
TL+ Member
PickyProtoss
Profile Blog Joined April 2014
Ireland74 Posts
February 09 2016 22:30 GMT
#3
On February 10 2016 05:54 brickrd wrote:
i don't understand why you removed duplicate names, can you explain that?


Great question!

And here is my explanation:

When I have two separate databases of games played at time 1 and time 2. I have to merge these databases together.I use Name as the key which merges the databases, in other words, where brickrd is a player in database 1 slot the information from database 2 next to this, this is a left join in SQL or a Vlookup with Excel.

In order to make this more efficient I removed duplicates. Cause if I want to merge on name brickrd but there is one playing in Korea and the other in US, where does the value go? This is a common problem with Vlookup! That being said, I do think that this was foolish and with SQL I could left join where region = region in the code, in other words, in database 1, where brickrd plays in Korea join database 2 where brrickrd plays in Korea, this would prevent the step of removing duplicates

Nevertheless, even if I did this, I am afraid I am ignorant when it comes to barcodes. Are they unique? Can two separate players have the same barcode? If so all barcodes need to be removed. How are the barcodes created? If these questions were answered, I could perhaps avoid the removing of duplicates process and that would lead to more data and better estimations.

Thanks for reading.
The_Masked_Shrimp
Profile Joined February 2012
425 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-02-09 23:54:42
February 09 2016 23:51 GMT
#4
Barcodes are.all unique, you can't duplicate.names in the same region. They are just sequences of upper case i and lower case L so as long as you use a case sensitive languages there is no reason to not include barcodes (except that bar codes are assholes, but that's another story)

And you should nit merge regions together since it should be expected that the regional trends are so different that presenting a global average would be kind of meaningless for anyone
Daimai
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Sweden762 Posts
February 10 2016 00:01 GMT
#5
On February 10 2016 08:51 The_Masked_Shrimp wrote:
Barcodes are.all unique, you can't duplicate.names in the same region. They are just sequences of upper case i and lower case L so as long as you use a case sensitive languages there is no reason to not include barcodes (except that bar codes are assholes, but that's another story)

And you should nit merge regions together since it should be expected that the regional trends are so different that presenting a global average would be kind of meaningless for anyone


What? Afaik, you can duplicate names, since you have your character code which distinguishes you from others.
To pray is to accept defeat.
PickyProtoss
Profile Blog Joined April 2014
Ireland74 Posts
February 10 2016 21:07 GMT
#6
So are barcodes duplicates or not?
Korakys
Profile Blog Joined November 2014
New Zealand272 Posts
February 11 2016 01:40 GMT
#7
I think maybe half of barcodes are unique and half aren't, pure guess on my part though. The non-unique ones are differentiated by the 3 or 4 digit character code as mentioned by Daimai.
Swing away sOs, swing away.
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