Ren's Fantasy GSTL Weekly Update

There's a huge risk when switching to HotS that some of the old stars could fall hard. Life is definitely "the man" in HotS and the closest to a sure thing out there, but he's just too expensive for me. Instead, I'm hedging the risk and went with a more balanced team.

There are a lot of viable 4-point players, but it gets a lot rougher at 3-points. Once you hit 2-pointers and 1-pointers, you're mostly looking at guys who won't ever see playing time. At that point, you might as well just grab a 1-pointer on a great team and rack up the +1s every other week. Unfortunately, the lack of any 1-pointers on LG-IM put an end to that strategy. A Life-led Startale is also scary and has an ample amount of 1-point players if you'd like to go that way, but I ended up going a slightly different path while still utilizing a 1-point player. Taking a single 1-point player allowed me to keep the rest of the team strong without really splurging into 3-4 expensive stars. I think it's more beneficial to get value out of the entire team rather than rely on 3-4 stars.

For captain, I either wanted to go really cheap (probably a 1-pointer from Startale) or someone that's nearly a sure thing. I went for the big captain and saved a couple points from Life by going with Gumiho instead. Gumiho is a well known multi-dropper on a small team that is highly dedicated to GSTL. He'll be sent out every time FXO plays and has the potential to all-kill any team. He might be the next closest to a sure thing in GSTL this season.

Creator became a very attractive option because he's on a small team that's terran heavy. He's THE GUY when it comes to non-terrans on Prime. He should be expected to play often and can rack up some good points against any opponent. I liked Byun and Maru at 5 points each, but they're too likely to split time along with MKP (who is overpriced) and I just barely had to avoid all three. Byun would have been my top pick if I did want to dive into Prime Terrans.

My final large purchase was Supernova at 5 points. I'd put him about on par with Byun/Maru, but he gets the nod for my team because he is the clear favorite terran on Azubu. Azubu sent him out every round in the preseason so playing time should not be an issue for him. Plus he's on a stronger team overall which will give him bonus points more often.

For team pick, Prime seemed like the real value. It's hard to believe that MKP, Creator, Byun, and Maru will ever get all-killed. Yet, any of the above could get an all-kill. It's a small team, but you only need 4 solid players to win GSTL. They shouldn't be the top team in GSTL, but they're half the price of comparable teams and a steal in value.

Keen is the #1 terran on MVP and has always gotten decent playing time in GSTL while pretty consistently getting a win or two. No reason for that to end in HotS and he seems like a bargain at 4 points. He's also the opening day starter for MVP this season which increases his value.

Alicia is the #1 Protoss on Axiom and already has the starting nod for week 1. I expect a decent amount of playing time for him while Crank settles much more into a managerial role like Choya, but without the bravado to send himself out. I don't expect Alicia to beast it up, but he should be good for a couple points every other week and that's all you can ask of a 4-point guy.

Heart is a lot more risky. He's the third terran on Axiom, which could severely limit his play-time. However, he was the one Korean on Complexity that didn't fall off the map. He seems to have better internal motivation than others and now that he's back with a solid team, his potential could explode. Plus, he's cheesy a sniper who will likely be sent in to take guys out. So I see a very good upside, but a bigger risk on him than most of my other picks. He also got playing time in Axiom's one preseason matchup which is a good sign.

Lucky is the #2 or #3 zerg on FXO, yet he's always seemed to get decent playing time. He gets the roster spot for me because he got the starting spot for FXO. It seems that they trust him enough to open their season right and that's a real value for only 3 points. If he hadn't gotten the starting spot from FXO, I would have gone with Miya who is the best Z on Axiom unless Scarlett's time is really well spent in the team house. Depending on week one results, a quick swap to Miya may be eminent.

My final spot went to SSanaEE. Yeah, he's a 1 pointer. Yeah, he's on a bad team. However, he did get a chance in the preseason and won a game against Swagger (Killer). The NSHS roster is bad enough that SSanaEE may continue to get opportunities which is better than almost any other 1 point player can say. Yet, jjakji can still go off and grab his team an occasional win for a bonus point. If he fails to get opportunities in the regular season, I can always dump him for a Startale bench warmer, but I think the gamble is worth it.

For my anti-team, I've decided to take a huge risk on Symbol. Azubu already has Violet for Z as well as BboongBboong which will cut into Symbol's play time severely. I also don't know how well Symbol will adjust without having TSL's training environment while switching to new strategies. He never seemed to be top notch at the lightning fast ZvZ games and the pace of the game in HotS has gotten faster. I'm counting on him being one of the guys who just doesn't adjust right to HotS while he'll be limited due to his team. He's still good enough that I wouldn't normally want to take him on an anti-team, but taking him at 8 points opened up the opportunity to take two players who could easily get 0s almost every week.

Why would someone take Nestea at 3 points when they can take SortOf? Nestea may not play, but he'll still rack up +1s for team wins and is a threat if he does play. Will SortOf play? If so, will a foreigner actually win in GSTL? He might be good for a foreigner, but there's no way he's worth 3 points compared to his GSTL peers and NSHS will rarely get the wins for the free +1s. He seemed like a very obvious pick to me and the only reason not to take him is if you go for a 4-4-5 balanced cost anti-team.

Salvation seems very similar to SortOf. He's on a weak team that will lose often and he didn't play in two preseason matches. When your team would rather take a chance on SSanaEE, Tible, and Madbull, you know something is wrong. Salvation looks to be a non-factor unless they're secretly holding him back for the real season.

Final Notes:
I avoided IM for my team and my anti-team. The team is too good and will clearly get a lot of wins which makes all of their players poor candidates for the anti-team. Yet, they have 10 guys worth at least 4 points. How does any one of them get real playing time? In general, I'm against taking IM players this season despite them being the best team. I also think you can get better value than the 5 point LG-IM team even though they will probably be the best team.

Team trade value: 36
Anti-team trade value: 13

CHOYA NOOOOOOOO!

Starting off your season with a loss and not even giving Gumiho (one of your two stars) a shot seems like a bad idea. Okay, so it's not as bad as skipping Oz in the Bo9 playoffs with your team's life at stake, but I think this one is pretty close. I'm still a Choya fanboy, but this week's event is too reminiscent and my faith is getting shaken. Really, playing three zergs when many are calling zerg underpowered? Grrrr.

I understand having race specific snipers and I think it's a good strategy overall. I'm sure Hurricane was your top Terran sniper and JKS was your top Protoss sniper leaving Gumiho as the Zerg sniper and Leenock as the final boss, but you can't paint one of your two stars into a corner like that. If you're going to go the sniper route, then Gumiho needs to lead off instead of Lucky and let Lucky (or someone else) snipe terran. Lucky is just not as good of an overall player as Gumiho so you need to give him the opportunity to get multiple kills.

It's just one loss in a long season, so I don't want to overreact. However, from a fantasy standpoint, the lack of Gumiho playtime is by far the biggest concern. He was supposed to be the sure thing on my team and I can't trade him even if I want to. I just hope the week one loss makes Choya rethink his strategy and gets Gumiho into the mix every time FXO plays.

The rest of the fantasy team did essentially what they should have done. Heart came in and sniped a game + got a team win for three points. Keen and Lucky both led off with a victory. Either Alicia or Keen had to get the point and this time around it went to Keen, but I will say that Alicia's play was a little suspect. He did get the playtime and the team win to keep him relevant, but he's very tempting to trade before his value drops too far. I'll give him another outing to prove himself. If he's still looking weak, then I'll see if I can catch a rising star.

Overall, I still have a lot of players to play this week so I don't want to panic yet and I won't bail out on players so soon.

Having said that, there are a few players on the rise:
Squirtle had the biggest day of anyone. I still think he's a rough pickup because we have no idea when he'll get playing time next. Who's to say that LG-IM doesn't play First, Seed, MC, or YongHwa next match instead of Squirtle? If I'm a Squirtle owner, I'm seriously thinking about selling him when he's high. Then again, I wasn't too high on Squirtle to begin with.

MMA is back. He's also on a small team that had no problem playing him as the 3rd terran on the day. It's already tough to trade for MMA (I cannot), but if you're considering bailing out of your big gun, MMA is a good place to put your money.

Hurricane (Tear) got his snipe win and will likely continue to be a regular for FXO. MC owners may want to avoid that IM bottleneck and trade down to Hurricane.

Tails is another guy to look out for. I think he'll have to share a little too much time with Finale, Swagger, Lure, and Super (Vampire), but if you want to bet on him being the clear favorite in GSTL, now's the time to pull that trigger.

A few players who are falling:
Gumiho, noted.

DongRaeGu and Leenock. Both got opportunities as aces so that's a good sign. Both failed in an era where Zerg are no longer considered overpowered. Both of these aces rose in prominence before the patch zerg cries, but they're still not immune to some fall-off from the Zerg highs. Neither one of them is Life and it showed in their performances. They'll still be respectable, but if you're an owner, you may want to pick them up after their value drops a little further.

Team trade value: 36.49
Anti-team trade value: 13