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Draft Analysis 3: Empire vs. Virtus.Pro

Blogs > Carbonyl
Post a Reply
Carbonyl
Profile Blog Joined August 2012
United States334 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-02 02:21:44
February 01 2013 21:56 GMT
#1
DotA Draft Analysis 3
The Defense Playoffs
Game 1 of Team Empire vs. Virtus.Pro

Draft Analysis 1: Baguette vs. Fnatic.EU
Draft Analysis 2: aL.Academy vs. Team Liquid

disclaimer: I in no way consider myself to be an expert or any more qualified than anyone else to do this. I'm doing it for fun and I'm hoping to learn something. Please give feedback on things I can do better, things I missed, or things you thought I did well. Thanks!

See a preview of the playoffs, including this match, here.

YouTube VOD:


Replay #114151994


Team Empire (Radiant) - Goblak, Mila, Scandal, blowyourbrain, Funn1k
vs
Virtus.Pro (Dire) - NS, Airman, tmw, Santa, KSi


As before, I haven’t watched this game at all yet and I don't listen to anyone commentating while the picks are happening, so I don’t know what heroes will be picked or who wins or anything. The first ban and pick will go to Team Empire, playing as the Radiant, Virtus.Pro will then have the second and third picks and second ban, playing as the Dire.

1st Ban Phase
+ Show Spoiler +
1st Empire ban: Lone Druid. Empire begins by banning out the off laner/pusher/split-pusher/carry of Lone Druid. They don’t want to deal with a split pushing bear, so maybe they are going to be focused on a team-fight or team-push oriented strategy.
1st Virtus.Pro ban: Batrider. Very standard ban out, it’s just too annoying to deal with any hero being at risk of being snatched for being out slightly too far (and in cases of bat rider, “too far” is where you normally would be against anyone else).

2nd Empire ban: Nyx Assassin. Can’t say I’m surprised here, Empire bans Nyx first round of every single game right now. Nyx is such a great support hero that doesn’t need items or levels to be effective, and all his skills are fantastic for initiations, harass, and survivability.
2nd Virtus.Pro ban: Magnus. The decision of Virtus was based on what they wanted to do. I doubt they thought Magnus would be picked up first pick by Empire, but banning him means they didn’t want him. They’re also letting through heroes like Darkseer, the wisp, and kotl. If they were afraid of Empire picking him, then they wanted to make sure they wouldn’t get reverse polaritied, one of the easiest ways to lose a team fight.


Notable unpicked heroes:

+ Show Spoiler +
Kotl – Very surprised he didn’t get banned, I’m assuming Empire will first pick him, as they didn’t ban him. Not banning = you want if you have first pick. A very strong pusher and counter-pusher, with a 15cd Recall that brings in any additional hero. Kotl is just so strong right now there’s no way he doesn’t get picked up in the next 3 picks.

Wisp – Always a potential option, a wisp-carry combo can fit well into almost any lineup.
Darkseer – A powerful offlaner, capable of getting farm from the jungle as well if he needs to. He will always have an impact on teamfights no matter what game he’s in.

Naix – Not a trademark hero of either of these teams, but still popular and ridiculously strong at the moment due to the 6 second rage.

SD – A great support hero, just has 4 super-effective spells that can be useful in every situation. His ulti can slow heroes in BKB form, he can initiate, he can make solo ganks guaranteed with his soul catcher.


1st Pick Phase
+ Show Spoiler +
1st Empire pick: Wisp. Alright, instead of kotl, Empire picks up the Wisp. Shows they value the wisp combo more than they want the kotl. Also, they have freedom with their next two picks to get any carry hero to combo with wisp that they want. EDIT: Totally forgot about Funn1k being on Empire and him being a total baller at Wisp. Totally should have made this pick predicable or less of a surprise.

1st and 2nd Virtus.Pro picks: KotL and Darkseer. Standard as standard can be. See explanation for why these heroes own above. I’m going to note here, I’m expecting to see a CK+SD pick up here. SD’s disruption is great against the DS’s surge, and the CK+wisp combo is the soup of the day right now.

2nd and 3rd Empire picks: CK and Naix. Aww, 1 out of 2. CK is obviously picked up to combo with the wisp, his rift+tether is an instant stun, and then the chaos bolt to follow means CK gets to go to town on anyone without magic immunity. A great hero to pick against that combo? Naix! Too bad Empire decided to pick up Naix as well. Lifestealer will be immune to Illuminate and is, as I said before, just crazy strong right now. (I swear that my third guess after the SD would have been Naix, you can believe me or not ).

3rd Virtus.Pro pick: Gyrocopter. Hmm, the Gyrocopter (what I assume to be) carry pick. I’m not sure how that will work out, because Naix is really hard to use any of Gyro’s spells on. However, Gyro does combo up extremely well with the vacuum of Darkseer, as well as with the illuminate of kotl, so I guess we’ll see.


SD was the only hero I was really expecting to see that wasn’t here, but other than that it pretty much went according to the current metagame. In these upcoming bans I believe we’ll see bans out on PL as well as mid heroes from Empire (unless they expect gyro to mid, which is possible). From VP they need to ban out the support 4 and 3 positions, so I’m thinking we’ll see an SD and maybe even a lina ban, possibly Chen/enchantress bans as well.

2nd Ban Phase
+ Show Spoiler +
3rd Empire ban: Undying. Holy crap I forgot all about this hero, I’m actually retroactively shocked that he wasn’t picked up already. Wow… I’m thinking the teams may have forgot about him too or something, because he’s normally always first-ban phase. Either way, he’s not banned out. He would have been great for VP as well, because he has great teamfight control ability in his tombstone, making it hard for Naix and CK to move around a fight properly.
3rd Virtus.Pro ban: QoP. Ban on QoP, who would have given Empire teamfight mobility and a good mid hero. I’m not so sure that CK+wisp aren’t going mid though, and Naix heading solo bottom. But if they had chosen to dual lane top and bottom then qop would have fit in well.

4th Empire ban: Enigma. Empire doesn’t let VP get the vacuum into blackhole into gyro ulti into illuminate combo, oh drat. As well, enigma is a strong pusher and mek holder that would have combed up great with the kotl.

4th Virtus.Pro ban: Furion. A possibly offlane hero, which is what I’m guessing Empire is going to need. Furion has been making a bit of a comeback recently with his global pushing, and there’s no global counter such as Wisp to the furion because Empire already have it (making the furion even strong, because that would be 3 heroes that could be anywhere on the map instantly).

5th Empire ban: BH. I’m actually not sure why BH was banned out, I don’t exactly see the danger he brought to Empire, besides enemy track gold, which is of course always a danger from BH. VP already have their offlane hero though. Perhaps Empire is thinking of picking a hero that can go invisible. If not, then the scope of the ban is beyond my knowledge (I’m sure Empire has a good reason for it, I just don’t see it).
5th Virtus.Pro ban: Enchantress. I got one right! The last ban is enchant, which is a strong early game pusher and support healer, as well as ganker. And later she’s capable of dealing out high amounts of damage through her impetus. Not much else to say.


Ok, so heroes I’m expecting to see:
SD, for reasons stated above.
Perhaps Rubick, always a strong support hero.
PL by VP, who look like they can use another carry hero. PL is amazingly strong if given enough room, which a Kotl can definitely give. He’s even capable of outcarrying the likes of Naix and/or CK.
WR offlane for Empire, who need an offlane hero if they’re going to run Naix safe lane.

2nd Pick Phase
+ Show Spoiler +
4th Empire pick: Puck. This little fairy can dodge Illuminates, gyro rockets, and is just a general nuisance on the map. He can also either offlane or go middle, so I’m curious to see where he’ll be laned.

4th Virtus.Pro pick: Bane. Another popular support hero right now, he can nightmare one person and then ulti another, effectively taking 2 heroes out of the action for the price of 1 hero. His enfeeble might also be picked up early to harass in lane, it makes it almost impossible to last hit.

5th Empire pick: Chen. A jungler support hero, who also combos amazingly with Wisp’s tether. If one of them has a mek, basically any hero that wisp chooses can be full health instantly with a double mek – double hand of god combo. Mana boots thrown in and it makes for 1 really hard to kill Naix or CK. He’s also good at ganking and pushing with creeps early, however, I feel his ability to push will be hindered by the kotl.

5th Virtus.Pro pick: Windrunner. VP grap WR as their last pick. The fact that wisp is always lined up with a hero, and the fact that there may be chen creeps running around, means that shackles should be plentiful. She also can take up any lane position, and even semicarry if they need hero to. Because as of now all the carry potential lies with Gyro.


Team Empire looks like they’ll be playing for the aggressive teamfight style. If Naix ultis in CK then those 3 heroes can instantly kill anyone on the map. Chen will be able to heal from anywhere. And Puck’s dream coil will make sure that the enemy can’t just run away from Naix and CK. However, their big weakness right now is antipush. All they really have is Puck’s combo, and I’m not sure that will be enough against a kotl+ion shell+gyro flak cannon and powershot pushing ability.

VP will most likely have to try and show aggression early, as I don’t think that Gyro can carry against a ck/naix late game. However, they have the ability to push hard and early, so expect them to try and make full use of that.

End notes/ Reflection/Mistakes: + Show Spoiler +
Just like last time, I took my notes as the draft was happening and didn’t go back to adjust incorrect predictions, so now I’d like to look back on the draft and see where I went wrong.

My poor SD was never picked up, and I’m thinking maybe he isn’t as popular as I think he is. Or maybe his defensive style just didn’t fit in with that either team wanted to accomplish.
There was no PL either from VP, which wouldn’t have fit into their gameplan of heavy pushing (assuming that’s what they’ll be doing). PL would have made them have to turtle like crazy all game, and PL can’t outcarry a whole-map-farmed Naix and CK at 30 minutes in.
Please give feedback or insight to things you think I missed, analysis wise or other wise!


***
It takes quite a long time of playing and watching a video game before you realize how bad at it you really are.
AkalineMess
Profile Joined December 2012
249 Posts
February 01 2013 22:19 GMT
#2
If you take Tobi's idea as an insight competitive, just stop. Tobi is a play-by-play caster, not an competitive insight caster. He just spews out bullshit all day long.
Comeh
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States18919 Posts
February 01 2013 22:27 GMT
#3
On February 02 2013 07:19 AkalineMess wrote:
If you take Tobi's idea as an insight competitive, just stop. Tobi is a play-by-play caster, not an competitive insight caster. He just spews out bullshit all day long.

I'm not going to pretend tobi is the master of dota, but I don't find myself disagreeing with him too often. His draft insight isn't great, but its not "spewing bullshit out all day long".

ヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノDELETE ICEFROGヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(
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