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HotS is going to be great.
Let's get that out of the way right at the start. There's a ton of cool stuff in the pipeline: I'm looking forward to playing the campaign with my favourite race, and I'm very much looking forward to watching pro-level competition with the new units. Everybody clear on that? Cool.
The only thing I'm not looking forward to is actually laddering as Zerg, and since nobody else is going to post on my blog I might as well tell you why:
The First Ten Minutes
Zergs have (unfairly, I think) taken quite a bit of stick for being less innovative than other races, especially from Terrans who can rather bang on a bit about how their builds keep getting nerfed. The reality is that since release, the first ten minutes of ZvX have been the playground of the other races. The first reason is simple: there is no higher tier unit or upgrade Zerg can get in those ten minutes that will help offensively or defensively in the small numbers possible, unlike tanks, void rays, banshees, phoenix, medivacs, warp prisms, immortals and dark templar, which basically reduces zerg choices to building a ling/bling/roach army or building an economy.
The second reason is more subtle: Everyone knew Zerg had the greatest macro potential, so nobody was ever trying to out-macro them. It was all about delivering that big pre-ten-minute punch - and to stop that kind of punch as zerg you have to counter it as late as possible. This meant zerg had no window to harass or bait units to get ahead - how do you bait units out of someone who’s gearing up to kill you anyway? Thus zergs were left only one option: figure out how to get the biggest possible economy before any given punch landed.
Very recently, things have changed. With the help of a much-needed buff, Zergs have stabilised the early game to the point where it is no longer a given their opponents will go for the pre-ten push. Setting aside what the buff may or may not have done to overall win/loss balance, it's a good thing to see zergs sometimes get the opportunity to punish greedy terrans and Protoss with aggression, rather than it always being the other way around. We're even seeing Zergs get the chance to fast-tech into nydus or drops, exploiting the enemy's desire to do something other than kill them right now.
Turning Back the Clock
Unfortunately, HotS is about to undo a lot of that hard work. Terran and Protoss players are getting a bunch of new ways to make the first ten minutes unpredictable again, and Zergs are getting nothing to tech to that will help them. They'll be back to using ling/bling/roach/queen to defend a three-base economy, every single time, figuring out how to hold reactored widow mines, cloaked immortal/sentry allins and lord knows what else using the same old hatchery tech*. And what's worse, they're going to be doing it in a hail of the same old taunts from the less sympathetic Terran and Protoss players: "Look how innovative we're being! Why don't you try BLAH instead of being so greedy all the time?"
Hopefully the process will play out a little faster this time. With luck, in six months Terrans and Protoss will start trying to be greedy again, and Zergs can start having a little fun.
*You can tell Blizzard know this already, because they're giving Zerg overseers at evo-chamber.
EDIT: If you're going to one-star me, please, tell me why I'm wrong. I want to be wrong, either about how HotS is going to play out or how much fun it's going to be for Zergs doing it. There's nothing I'd like better than to be able to stick a strikethrough around everything above and say "Sorry for being alarmist".
 
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I'm guessing you're getting 1 starred because zerg has always had an option for punishing greedy builds. Yeah, it's hard to punish greedy builds if you're going fast 3 hatch. That's a bit akin to a protoss complaining that he can't attack someone when he goes forge double expand. On 2 hatch with a reasonably "early" gas, you have punish options solely based on the speed of upgraded lings. Ling/bling or roach/ling busts are always an option. As far as early pressure, based on what we've seen, you're flat out wrong. The battle hellion adds a little extra 'oomph' to hellion/marauder or hellion/banshee pressures, but aren't drastically changing things. Protoss doesn't get anything that directly aids early attacks unless you count Recall or possibly some fast Oracle-cloacking thing.
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Maybe you're right. Maybe it will suddenly be impossible to go fast three-base - and maybe the new units won't help that much.
I personally am very afraid of midgame infestor/swarm host, or viper/roach/ling/bling (really viper and any of the early zerg units). Let me turn this back on you: do you know for a fact that 2-base Infestor/Swarm Host or Viper/any tier 1 will not make it harder than it already is for me to take an early second base (in case you haven't been playing the other races, it's already quite hard)?
If not, how do you know your three-base play will even matter?
How do you know that Vipers won't be able to nuke the Immortal DPS out of an Immortal/Sentry allin?
How do you know that Vipers/Queens early won't take the bite out of early stargate harass?
Oh look, now I have no good tech options, right?
Conjecture is fine when its meant to be constructive (saying "hey, this might be a good build", "hey this might make early game defense earlier") - it gives you and others something fun to look forward to and try. But when it's meant to be destructive, it just serves no purpose (unless your purpose is to persuade people not to buy HotS - you might be on the wrong forum if this is the case). Writing whatever is fine - it's a blog, you can write whatever you want. But that doesn't make it something people care to read.
That's why I 1-starred you.
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On August 29 2012 02:06 justalex wrote:
I'm guessing you're getting 1 starred because...
I wonder what rating this guy gave you :p.
I think even now if you wanted to do 2-base pressure as zerg you could. People do, in fact. Most commonly, mutas are a strong choice. Leenock is a fan of going lair at like 5:00 and having mutas in your base cross-map by like 9:15 or so. The reason almost no one gets aggressive early on is because as you mentioned, zerg has the strongest macro game, so why would you not use it?
As for being worried about getting attacked early on in HotS more often by Terran, I'm not really sure what you're worried about. Warhounds shouldn't give you too much trouble in their current incarnation. I guess battle-mode hellions might be troublesome, but they're hardly game-breaking, and they're just as shitty against queens as their vehicle mode incarnation. And widow mines are solid, but won't combine well with some kind of early attack.
For Protoss, the Mothership Core will be a defensive unit, so you shouldn't worry yourself too much. The Oracle is just a harass unit, so a few units near your mineral lines should make you pretty safe. And the Tempest will just be a matter of denying vision where possible and teching to spire or hydras quickly so you can go kill it.
In other words, range 5 queens will still give you PLENTY of protection, and scouting properly will give you plenty more.
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its just as hard to figure out a new way to hit Z than to defend it with zerg's 2 years old refined roach lingsblings/queens build. i disagree with what u said since other races has to figure out new ways to use the new units and Z can just sit on the original +queens. or simply get 2 overseers.
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Much needed buff? You mean the Queen buff? If that's what you mean, then you're wrong.
Proof: patchzergs
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On August 29 2012 02:06 justalex wrote:
I'm guessing you're getting 1 starred because zerg has always had an option for punishing greedy builds.
If you're right, then I didn't make myself clear enough.
Absolutely, Zerg has options for punishing greedy builds. We're seeing them now. What I said was that for a long, long time we didn't see them because nobody was being greedy vs Zerg. They only started being greedy when Zergs stabilised enough to make mid-game all-ins less attractive.
Yeah, it's hard to punish greedy builds if you're going fast 3 hatch. That's a bit akin to a protoss complaining that he can't attack someone when he goes forge double expand.
Again, that's nothing I ever suggested should be possible. I said that zergs ended up going fast 3 hatch because their opponents were never doing anything greedy enough to punish with aggression.
As far as early pressure, based on what we've seen, you're flat out wrong. The battle hellion adds a little extra 'oomph' to hellion/marauder or hellion/banshee pressures, but aren't drastically changing things.
Warhound? Widow mine?
Protoss doesn't get anything that directly aids early attacks unless you count Recall or possibly some fast Oracle-cloacking thing.
And who in their right mind would count those, huh? 
Recall in itself is going to be huge. Then there's recharge, so you need fewer sentries, the big cannon thingy to shut down busts without needing to spend on units, and the ability for a sentry/immortal or blink push to turn up cloaked. And recall home losing nothing if it starts to go badly.
I'm not saying these things can't be stopped, or that they're overpowered. I'm saying Zergs are going to have to use the same limited pre-ten-minute toolset they do now, and only when that's happened will they get to play with their new toys. It would have been really nice to have something new to make Terran and Protoss players think "What if we turn up and they have those?"
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On August 29 2012 06:45 Psychobabas wrote:
Much needed buff? You mean the Queen buff? If that's what you mean, then you're wrong.
Proof: patchzergs
Much needed because of how it opened up the early game (proof: recent ZvX where Terrans get caught trying to be too greedy). Like I already said, I'm not commenting on how it affected overall balance, or the supposed existence of 'patchzergs'. Personally I haven't seen a Terran clearly outplay a Zerg and still lose (yet) but I'm not saying it doesn't happen.
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On August 29 2012 03:09 ChristianS wrote:
I think even now if you wanted to do 2-base pressure as zerg you could. People do, in fact.
I know they do. I said as much in the OP.
The reason almost no one gets aggressive early on is because as you mentioned, zerg has the strongest macro game, so why would you not use it?
No, the reason no Zergs got aggressive early on is because nobody used to do builds Zergs could punish with aggression.
As for being worried about getting attacked early on in HotS more often by Terran, I'm not really sure what you're worried about. Warhounds shouldn't give you too much trouble in their current incarnation. I guess battle-mode hellions might be troublesome, but they're hardly game-breaking, and they're just as shitty against queens as their vehicle mode incarnation. And widow mines are solid, but won't combine well with some kind of early attack.
Maybe you're right I don't think you are, but that would certainly be a way I could be wrong.
For Protoss, the Mothership Core will be a defensive unit, so you shouldn't worry yourself too much. The Oracle is just a harass unit, so a few units near your mineral lines should make you pretty safe.
Units like... the ones Zergs have to avoid making to get their economy up fast enough to deal with all-ins? Units that can shoot up, like...?
And the Tempest will just be a matter of denying vision where possible and teching to spire or hydras quickly so you can go kill it.
Ok, we can theorycraft back and forth here (I see your sight-denial and mutas and raise them a few cannons under the Tempest and the Oracle's unstoppable vision spell) - but you might be right, I might be right - it's hard to tell. The point is, Zerg isn't going to be using anything new to deal with these threats.
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On August 29 2012 03:08 Treehead wrote:
Maybe you're right. Maybe it will suddenly be impossible to go fast three-base
That's not what I said at all. I said Zerg are going to be back trying to go fast three base because their opponents won't be playing greedy, ever. They're going to be playing with their new toys.
Let me turn this back on you: do you know for a fact that 2-base Infestor/Swarm Host or Viper/any tier 1 will not make it harder than it already is for me to take an early second base (in case you haven't been playing the other races, it's already quite hard)?
Why would a small number of swarm hosts or tiny number of Vipers be more threatening than the large number of roach/ling I could get to accompany my infestors right now at the same timings?
How do you know that Vipers won't be able to nuke the Immortal DPS out of an Immortal/Sentry allin?
For the same reason a couple of infestors with neural parasite can't do it now: you can't get them and the economy and the army you need in time.
How do you know that Vipers/Queens early won't take the bite out of early stargate harass?
For the same reason fast mutas or fast Hydra don't do it now: going fast mutas or fast hydras is an excellent way to die to pretty much anything other than early stargate harrass.
I completely agree Zerg is getting a bunch of cool stuff. I said as much right there in the OP. But suggesting that Zerg is suddenly going to be able to rush to that tech doesn't add up. We have great ways to deal with immortals and sentries at Lair already, but we can't afford them in time. Why should we suddenly be able to afford equally expensive units and upgrades at the same time in HotS?
Conjecture is fine when its meant to be constructive (saying "hey, this might be a good build", "hey this might make early game defense earlier") - it gives you and others something fun to look forward to and try. But when it's meant to be destructive, it just serves no purpose (unless your purpose is to persuade people not to buy HotS - you might be on the wrong forum if this is the case). Writing whatever is fine - it's a blog, you can write whatever you want. But that doesn't make it something people care to read.
That's why I 1-starred you.
If your criterion for 1-starring a post is that it makes a tentatively negative point, fair enough.
I posted this because it's how I'm feeling about HotS, in the hope that someone could say, "No, look, because..." and demonstrate a reasonable chance of either:
1. It being feasible to get Vipers, Swarm Hosts etc faster than existing lair-tech units
2. The new Protoss and Terran units not resetting the early game to the extent I expect
So far, that ain't happened.
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On August 29 2012 06:45 Psychobabas wrote:
Much needed buff? You mean the Queen buff? If that's what you mean, then you're wrong.
Proof: patchzergs
I love the way you "proof" actually needs proving itself.
Where are these patchzergs?
You just sound like an irritated QQer than a useful poster.
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So lemme get this straight. Simply you're not looking forward to HotS because while the other two races are able to use their new units in the early game, zergs will not since they really didn't get anything pre-lair. I think that's fair, although it looks like most people are responding to this part:
Terran and Protoss players are getting a bunch of new ways to make the first ten minutes unpredictable again, and Zergs are getting nothing to tech to that will help them. They'll be back to using ling/bling/roach/queen to defend a three-base economy, every single time, figuring out how to hold reactored widow mines, cloaked immortal/sentry allins and lord knows what else using the same old hatchery tech*.
My personal response is that you don't know if 2-base lair strategies will be viable or even better than what we now know as 3-base play. Similarly, you're assuming that the new units will be giving Protoss and Terran better and stronger timing attacks than what they have already. You don't know yet if some weird recall push is better or worse than a normal sentry/immortal all in.
However your original concern has proof behind it - zerg doesn't really get anything new to use pre-lair. But my question to you is, if going 3-base and defending with tier 1 units works wonders versus new pushes, what is the problem, really? It just sounds like you want to use something new for something new's sake. You may not get any new toys right away, but if you hold some ridiculous new all in and get to push onwards to the mid and late game with cool new units, what's wrong with that?
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On August 29 2012 07:09 Umpteen wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2012 03:09 ChristianS wrote:
I think even now if you wanted to do 2-base pressure as zerg you could. People do, in fact.
I know they do. I said as much in the OP.
I should clarify: I mean that 2-base zerg was in the past very, very common in both PvZ and PvT. The metagame hasn't been a history of zergs 3-basing for all eternity and the other races trying to all-in to victory. It started as 1base vs. 1base, then quickly turned to 1base P/T vs. 2base Z because 1base Z sucks. Then as Z got better at holding 2 bases, it became predominantly 2base P/T vs. 2base Z. Then zerg had a choice: stay on 2 base a little longer and attack, or get on three base very quickly and defend. For a long time Terrans used hellions to force Zerg into the 2 base pressure option, rather than the fast 3 base option, but the queen buff negated that effect and made fast 3 base fully viable from Zerg. In fact, it made fast 3 base pretty easily defensible, of which Terrans often complain.
But if you just want to be aggressive as Zerg, that was always an option. During the 1base vs. 2base era that might have been difficult, but ever since then if you wanted to 2base pressure you could. Muta builds are really strong, and coming more and more back into favor ever since the queen buff. Hell, 2base muta was one of Leenock's standards for ZvT in the most recent MLG. But most zergs tend to favor the fast 3base, mainly because zerg macro is stronger than other races, and their lategame is hard as hell to deal with. Why try to win with roaches and banelings, when ultralisks and broodlords are so incredibly powerful?
Show nested quote +The reason almost no one gets aggressive early on is because as you mentioned, zerg has the strongest macro game, so why would you not use it? No, the reason no Zergs got aggressive early on is because nobody used to do builds Zergs could punish with aggression.
You speak in the past tense, as though zergs used to be completely passive and only recently started to get aggressive. On the contrary, the old standard from zerg was 2base pressure, whereas these days standard play is basically 3base mass droning, with queens to defend. As a secondary build, zergs will sometimes do a 2base roach/ling/bling all-in to try to punish a fast third base from Terran, or do mass roach pressure to try to punish a fast third from a Protoss, but those are pretty secondary, and on their way out in the metagame. Why? Because if zerg has the option to drone safely and tech to hive, that's usually going to have a much higher win rate than trying to win immediately with fewer, lower-tier units.
Show nested quote +As for being worried about getting attacked early on in HotS more often by Terran, I'm not really sure what you're worried about. Warhounds shouldn't give you too much trouble in their current incarnation. I guess battle-mode hellions might be troublesome, but they're hardly game-breaking, and they're just as shitty against queens as their vehicle mode incarnation. And widow mines are solid, but won't combine well with some kind of early attack. Maybe you're right I don't think you are, but that would certainly be a way I could be wrong.
What are they going to attack with? Warhounds are primarily anti-mechanical, which isn't going to do a hell of a lot against zerg. Some people have even speculated that they won't ever get used in the TvZ matchup, since they don't seem to have much of a role there. And widow mines aren't for big attacks, they're for space control; they're not going to open up any big timing attacks, they'll just give terran a little more map control, and that'll hardly stop you from droning if you want to.
So basically all you're worried about is some big marauder-hellion, thor-hellion, or banshee-hellion attacks with battle mode instead of siege mode. And honestly, the correct response to those will be approximately the same as it is now. Battle mode hellions in general are good against zerglings and not much else, so it's not hard to imagine what the correct responses will be.
Show nested quote +For Protoss, the Mothership Core will be a defensive unit, so you shouldn't worry yourself too much about all-ins. The Oracle is just a harass unit, so a few units near your mineral lines should make you pretty safe. Units like... the ones Zergs have to avoid making to get their economy up fast enough to deal with all-ins? Units that can shoot up, like...?
They don't even need to shoot up (although for shooting up, queens generally suffice). The oracle's harass is done by blocking mineral patches with entomb. Even just attacking with your drones clears up entomb pretty quick, but if you have some queens or lings or roaches or w/e you want to make nearby, you can kill off the shields on the mineral patches pretty easily. And if Protoss goes Stargate tech and invests in one or more oracles, you can afford to sacrifice a couple drones here and there to kill off the mineral blocks.
Show nested quote +And the Tempest will just be a matter of denying vision where possible and teching to spire or hydras quickly so you can go kill it. Ok, we can theorycraft back and forth here (I see your sight-denial and mutas and raise them a few cannons under the Tempest and the Oracle's unstoppable vision spell) - but you might be right, I might be right - it's hard to tell. The point is, Zerg isn't going to be using anything new to deal with these threats.
The former option is obviously stronger and more defensible. This would make it hard to stop the Tempest from attacking you. But this option is also a massive investment; build cannons and plant units in the banana hallway on Entombed Valley, for instance, and you may protect your Tempest, but Zerg can just counterattack your main. The latter option is much cheaper, but it puts your Tempest at greater risk. Here zerg can get a few mutas or corruptors, fly out, and murder your expensive capital ship.
This isn't pure theorycraft—I have played around with the HotS Custom, which obviously isn't a perfect representation, but it is a good estimation—but the way I see it there are three ways this plays out.
1. Even post-HotS, Protoss Stargate play is pretty worthless PvZ. There's still the occasional Stargate opening much like WoL has now, but the tech path is mostly a useless diversion. Maybe Blizzard even removes it before the end of the beta.
2. Stargate play is strong, but not game-breaking. If zerg responds badly, they come out behind the Protoss. If zerg responds approximately correctly, they minimize their losses and come out on pretty even footing. If zerg responds exceptionally, they come out at a significant advantage, and the Protoss's investment is wasted.
3. The new Protoss Stargate play is crazy overpowered and game-breaking. Blizzard discovers this in beta and promptly patches it. Post-patch, re-roll to see if patched Stargate play is scenario 1, 2, or 3.
For the record, I didn't 1-star you. I think you're a little overly pessimistic about how powerful T and P's new options will be, but overall I enjoyed your blog. I'm curious, what do you think of the new Zerg units? You're worried about T and P's new options, but are you also excited for the new options Zerg will have to play with?
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On August 29 2012 08:01 Cycle wrote:
My personal response is that you don't know if 2-base lair strategies will be viable or even better than what we now know as 3-base play.
Viability doesn't exist in a vacuum, though. Like I said, I'm sure that when everything settles down and T/P start trying to be greedy again, it will be viable to start exploiting that off two bases.
Similarly, you're assuming that the new units will be giving Protoss and Terran better and stronger timing attacks than what they have already. You don't know yet if some weird recall push is better or worse than a normal sentry/immortal all in.
Not necessarily better or stronger, just good and strong and different - which will be enough to make them 'stronger' in the short term.
My point doesn't rely on these builds being stronger in absolute terms, it just relies on the fact that with T/P 2-base plays as strong as they are already, Zergs aren't able to rush tech against them. They have to stay on hatchery units. We're not getting anything in HotS that breaks the Zerg tradition of 'useless in small numbers'. Therefore we will have to stay on hatchery units against the new builds, too.
However your original concern has proof behind it - zerg doesn't really get anything new to use pre-lair. But my question to you is, if going 3-base and defending with tier 1 units works wonders versus new pushes, what is the problem, really? It just sounds like you want to use something new for something new's sake. You may not get any new toys right away, but if you hold some ridiculous new all in and get to push onwards to the mid and late game with cool new units, what's wrong with that?
In the long term, nothing, because the ridiculous all-ins will abate, T/P will start to play more greedily, and Zergs will start to be able to explore their options for exploiting that. In the short term, Zergs will be back to learning how to break fists with their face all over again.
I dunno, it's just not that appealing a prospect.
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On August 29 2012 17:59 Umpteen wrote:
Viability doesn't exist in a vacuum, though.
wut. I actually don't know what you mean by this. Explain plox.
T/P will start to play more greedily, and Zergs will start to be able to explore their options for exploiting that. In the short term, Zergs will be back to learning how to break fists with their face all over again.
I dunno, it's just not that appealing a prospect.
To be fair that sounds about right. For the first bit zergs are gonna play on the back foot. Though I really think this is an attribute of the race: hold hold hold hold hold defend and strike back with immense numbers. You've probably heard this advice before, but if it doesn't sound fun, play another race.
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On August 30 2012 03:27 Cycle wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2012 17:59 Umpteen wrote:
Viability doesn't exist in a vacuum, though. wut. I actually don't know what you mean by this. Explain plox.
Sorry Example of what I meant:
When Protoss goes forge expand, it's viable for Zerg to take a third at 21 supply. If they're 4-gating you, it's not. For a huge chunk of WoL, fast third builds were not viable for Zerg because of the builds they were facing.
To be fair that sounds about right. For the first bit zergs are gonna play on the back foot. Though I really think this is an attribute of the race: hold hold hold hold hold defend and strike back with immense numbers. You've probably heard this advice before, but if it doesn't sound fun, play another race.
It's not an attribute of the race, it's a consequence of the way T and P used to play. Now that they're trying to be greedier, Zergs are actually able to go on the offensive and punish them sometimes. That's what's going to stop happening in HotS.
EDIT: Check out HDStarcraft's casting of the HotS custom tournament and you'll see exactly what I mean. The new Protoss units synergise so damn well in the early game it's beautiful. Examples:
Use mothership core to energise Nexus and 4-gate your opponent 30 seconds earlier.
Use mothership core to energise Oracle so you can spam cloak, Preordain or Entomb.
Use Purify to stop any drop or runby dead.
Then you watch the Zerg try to get his new units early:
Make swarm hosts when lair reached. Swarm hosts immediately scanned/observed and slaughtered, game ends soon afterwards because the swarm hosts weren't 15 roaches.
And that's it. The single most significant change to Zerg is getting overlord creep at evo chamber.
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I would argue that it is an attribute of the race, stemming from the "zerg units are weak in small numbers" concept and that zergs, if they want to get into the mid and late game, have to make a lot of drones. Drones aren't attacking units, so you won't be able to attack, so you can't apply pressure, so you end up on the back foot.
However I understand your point more clearly now, and it makes sense. The bottom line is that zerg really can't do anything with their new units for the first 10 minutes while Terran and Protoss can (and will), and that's unfortunate since you're a zerg player. I stick with my previous, cliché advice and suggest switching to a new race if you'd like to use the new units in the first 10 minutes :3
PS: I'm going to play all my ladder games doing ridiculous fast expands as T and P (using Mothership Core to nexus first), but I'm going to 9 pool 18 hatch as Z. Your mindset (since I think it's correct) that zergs can't do anything new for the first ten minutes is probably shared by other people, and because of this I'm personally gonna sac some econ and play aggressive.
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