• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 14:12
CEST 20:12
KST 03:12
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Serral wins HomeStory Cup 2912Serral wins Maestros of the Game 243ByuL, and the Limitations of Standard Play3Team Liquid Map Contest #22: Results and Winners7Code S Season 2 (2026): RO4 and Finals Preview12
Community News
Reynor: GSL Loss Wasn't About Preparation Format12[IPSL] Spring 2026 Grand Finals - This Weekend!1Weekly Cups (July 6 - 12): Protoss strike back9BSL Season 22 Full Overview & Conclusion8BSL Season 22 Full Overview & Conclusion8
StarCraft 2
General
Is the larve respawn broken? Weekly Cups (July 6 - 12): Protoss strike back Interview with an American 16 Year Old Grandmaster Serral wins HomeStory Cup 29 Reynor: GSL Loss Wasn't About Preparation Format
Tourneys
WardiTV Summer Cup 2026 GSL CK #5 Race War RSL Revival: Season 6 - Qualifiers and Main Event HomeStory Cup 29 Vespene Cup #1 — $300+ USD, July 10
Strategy
[G] Having the right mentality to improve
Custom Maps
New Map Maker - Looking for Advice - Love or Hate Work In Progress Melee Maps [D]RTS in all its shapes and glory <3
External Content
The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 534 Burning Evacuation Mutation # 533 Die Together Mutation # 532 Nuclear Family
Brood War
General
screpdb: new Starcraft reporting tool Pros Debate: Zerg Unfairly Nerfed? (ASL S22 map) ASL 22 Proposed Map Pool BSL Season 22 Full Overview & Conclusion BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/
Tourneys
[ASL22] Wildcard Qualifier [IPSL] Spring 2026 Grand Finals - This Weekend! [Megathread] Daily Proleagues IPSL Spring 2026 Top 4!
Strategy
Fighting Spirit mining rates Simple Questions, Simple Answers Creating a full chart of Zerg builds Relatively freeroll strategies
Other Games
General Games
Nintendo Switch Thread General RTS Discussion Thread Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Path of Exile Summer Games Done Quick 2026!
Dota 2
Looking for a Dota Mentor Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
NeO.D_StephenKing vs This Guy From 1 Million Dance TL Mafia Community Thread TL Mafia Power Rank Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread UK Politics Mega-thread YouTube Thread Canadian Politics Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
The IdrA Fan Club The HerO Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
Anime Discussion Thread [Req][Books] Good Fantasy/SciFi books Movie Discussion! Series you have seen recently...
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread McBoner: A hockey love story Tennis[sport] Formula 1 Discussion TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Simple Questions Simple Answers FPS when play League Of Legend on laptop How to clean a TTe Thermaltake keyboard?
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Poker (part 2)
Nebuchad
The Experiences We Want and …
TrAiDoS
An Exploration of th…
waywardstrategy
Gauntlet SC2: A Retrospectiv…
Ctone23
ramps on octagon
StaticNine
Funny Nicknames
LUCKY_NOOB
Evil Gacha Games and the…
ffswowsucks
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 5396 users

A Crisis of Confidence

Blogs > Treehead
Post a Reply
Treehead
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
999 Posts
June 18 2012 17:21 GMT
#1
Nobody knows everything. This statement is so obvious that it almost doesn’t have to be said, were it not to be the best way to frame this introduction. Everyone agrees on this point. I will readily concede that even I do not know everything. However, this concession is disingenuous – it is often said, but never truly meant. Tell me I don’t know everything and I will agree. But tell me I’m uninformed or just flat wrong on a specific topic and you’ll find yourself in an argument. We are born presumptuous and very few of us even make an attempt to kick the habit.

When we are 10 years old, we understand religion – how the world was created, who did the creating, and how it affects us today. When we are 15 years old, we understand our place in the world – who we ought to be, how we ought to act, and how to exert our will on the world around us. And by the time we reach 25 years old, we believe that we are able to understand the merits and faults of nearly every facet of society. The morality of abortion? Obvious. The solution to world hunger? Clear. I can explain nearly everything anyone encounters in the world. And for any new surprises in life, such as new scientific discoveries or new trends in human culture, I can always figure out pretty quickly a few words to say about who is to blame for it, how to explain it, or why it doesn’t matter. Universe - solved.

Feels pretty darn good, doesn’t it?

It’s also ridiculous. Yet, it’s kind of what we all think is true of ourselves and our beliefs.

Why we do it

Who we are personally is not entirely to blame for this behavior – partially it is the way we learn. When a baby learns to walk, he learns by doing. If he starts to walk in a way that is “wrong”, something bad will happen. He’ll realize he’s not able to do everything daddy does when he walks, or he’ll fall and get hurt. It’s the same way with learning most simple things. Once you start to go from the simple actions to the more complicated ones, though, the reality is that you may be allowed to live your entire life believing something which is stated as being obviously false given only very reasonable assumptions.

We also tend to believe what we feel is most likely to be true, but in doing so, almost always lost sight of the level of certainty that we ought to have. We think of certainty comparatively, and very seldom objectively. That's why things like the morality of abortion seems obvious. Were abortion not an issue, would this statement

"two reprodcutive cells come together count as a human being with every legal right and moral obligation that every other fully formed human being has - but only once they come together - not beforehand - and really, this means you better be aware of your actions conseqeunces on a cellular level or you may be committing homicide right now"

be believable with some form of proof or demonstration or reasonableness? Of course not! In this same sense, would the statement

"there is an age x, at which an unborn fetus magically transforms from being nothing more than a bit of a woman's body to being something every bit as respectable as you or I - so go ahead and play tennis with an x-1 month old fetus, but after that, it's a real being"

be believable without proof? Once again - of course not!

But given the two options, everyone picks one which suits them best, promptly forgets how little we know about the human reproductive process, and then is therefore capable of asserting their belief as though it were obviously and demonstrably the way things are.

Why it’s detrimental

Initially, there are two obvious points to make which I've lightly touched on above. For the idealist - overstated confidence makes you believe crazy things are real. For the socialite - this confidence also at best creates situations in which you are uncomfortable or incapable of acting reasonably. This means that, generally, there are things you just never talk about with friends who should be held in more confidence (because the unfortunate truth is that we favor confidence in beliefs over confidence in people) - things like religious convictions, politics, beliefs on morality. And when in situations where these things are being discussed (especially by those whose confidence in their beliefs are at more reasonable levels), you cannot possibly act reasonably.

But there's more - if you think about how credit cards are offered, how banks structure their fees, how advertisements work, how con artists operate - people who are overconfident can be endlessly exploited into situations where they stand to lose financially, emotionally or otherwise. And really, even if only one of the ways you are weakened by overconfident is seen as "valid" - what benefits does overconfidence really provide? A false feeling of stability?

How to Be More Reasonable

The first part is easy. It’s in the introduction. Just remind yourself you don’t know everything – you don’t have to and even if you felt you did, you can’t. The trick is meaning it this time. There are a broad category of things that people can only really guess about – and someone else’s guesses about what is true are about the least useful things you can think of.
Here’s a simple rule of thumb. If it seems like a lot of people disagree about something, and it seems like only one of the answers appears reasonable – then obviously you don’t really know much about the topic at hand. People don’t take incorrect positions just for fun. If the solution to something seems simple, yet people disagree about it, it’s probably actually complicated – maybe even complicated enough that we don’t want to take the time to understand it.

AND THAT’S OKAY. There’s no quiz at the end of life where if you don’t understand the intricacies of the debate between religion and science over how the universe began, you’ll get an “F”, get slapped on the wrists, and be forced to repeat your last life again. At least, I don’t know of any quiz like this. Remember our introduction. You don’t know everything, and you don’t need to.
So, having identified an issue you’re ignorant on either:

1. Admit ignorance and omit yourself from the debate, or
2. Provide yourself with a theory, and then approach that theory as a theory until you can explain beyond the shadow of a doubt. Note that this means explaining not only to yourself (who has no reason to doubt your theory), but to those who *would* actually doubt you – to those who already disagree with you.

I'm already going to get hell for using abortion, so I may as well stick to that path in illustrating this approach here. There's nothing wrong in saying that I lean pro-choice, as long as I admit that this is absent a large amount of information and experience (both not being a woman and not remembering the experience of being a fetus), and that people can have other theories, which I do not have to vehemently disagree with. In this way, I can be (and probably am) wrong. Personally, I have a theory that the "soul" is a real concept and that the "sudden humanness" of a fetus can be attached to the point at which the soul is completely attached to the person. That sounds ridiculous, and I admit that. But it's a theory - so it doesn't have to be right, it just has to be plausible.

Conclusion

Humanity is knowingly ignorant, but constantly disbelieves its ignorance until proven otherwise (and in doing the proving, it allows itself to reassert its claim by adjusting the set of what is "known" - i.e. humans knew everything when we believed the world was flat, and having now understood that it is round, we continue to know everything). This is how it is and how it has been since the beginning of time. These are things we likely cannot change. The human mind is too established and follows too strict a path to get where it must get in modern society. Our goal, then, should not be to change how we are, but to accept how we are created, understand the implications of how we are, and do our best to live with them. We are ignorant, and we won’t truly accept that we are ignorant. But if we can accept that this is the reality of the situation, we can keep our eyes open, keep our heads high, and do what humans do best – what humans were freaking born to do: to create, to adapt, and to learn - without allowing ourselves to be sidetracked by overconfidence.

TL;DR - I lost interest after the OP admitted he was kind of dumb. I probably know better than he does already, anyway.

*****
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 14h 49m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
UpATreeSC 234
BRAT_OK 68
CosmosSc2 39
MindelVK 20
StarCraft: Brood War
Calm 3403
Britney 505
Light 234
ggaemo 224
firebathero 185
Zeus 119
Dewaltoss 108
soO 33
910 27
Sacsri 22
[ Show more ]
Yoon 15
Rock 15
Dota 2
qojqva1770
League of Legends
Doublelift3283
Counter-Strike
FalleN 2436
fl0m1604
x6flipin379
adren_tv71
Heroes of the Storm
Liquid`Hasu3
Other Games
Grubby2882
Liquid`RaSZi1173
ceh9607
Beastyqt588
C9.Mang0166
XaKoH 137
Livibee128
crisheroes120
KnowMe116
SteadfastSC79
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick2785
StarCraft 2
TaKeTV600
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
[ Show 16 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• StrangeGG 26
• Reevou 4
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• Michael_bg 9
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Jankos2135
Other Games
• imaqtpie861
• Shiphtur289
Upcoming Events
Replay Cast
14h 49m
CrankTV Team League
16h 49m
Replay Cast
1d 14h
CrankTV Team League
1d 16h
Replay Cast
2 days
RSL Revival
2 days
Clem vs Lambo
Scarlett vs Cure
CranKy Ducklings
2 days
IPSL
2 days
Dragon vs Hawk
RSL Revival
3 days
Classic vs Trap
herO vs SHIN
Sparkling Tuna Cup
3 days
[ Show More ]
IPSL
3 days
Bonyth vs Ret
WardiTV Weekly
4 days
Monday Night Weeklies
4 days
PiGosaur Cup
6 days
The PondCast
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

YSL S3
HSC XXIX
Eternal Conflict S2 E2

Ongoing

IPSL Spring 2026
Acropolis #4
CSL 2026 Summer (S21)
KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 3
RSL Revival: Season 6
CranK Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League
SCTL 2026 Spring
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026
IEM Cologne Major 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 2
CS Asia Championships 2026
Asian Champions League 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
PGL Astana 2026
BLAST Rivals Spring 2026

Upcoming

Escore Tournament S3: W3
ASL S22 SEASON OPEN Day 1
Escore Tournament S3: W4
ASL S22 SEASON OPEN Day 2
Escore Tournament S3: W5
CSLAN 4
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
HSC XXX
SC4ALL II: StarCraft II
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
Light Tournament 2026
Eternal Conflict S2 Finale
Eternal Conflict S2 E3
Logitech G Connect 2026
StarSeries Fall 2026
FISSURE Playground #5
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.