• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 08:51
CEST 14:51
KST 21:51
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Code S Season 1 - RO8 Preview3[ASL21] Ro8 Preview Pt2: Progenitors8Code S Season 1 - RO12 Group A: Rogue, Percival, Solar, Zoun13[ASL21] Ro8 Preview Pt1: Inheritors16[ASL21] Ro16 Preview Pt2: All Star10
Community News
Maestros of The Game 2 announcement and schedule !0Weekly Cups (April 27-May 4): Clem takes triple0RSL Revival: Season 5 - Qualifiers and Main Event12Code S Season 1 (2026) - RO12 Results12026 GSL Season 1 Qualifiers25
StarCraft 2
General
Code S Season 1 - RO8 Preview Behind the Blue - Team Liquid History Book Weekly Cups (April 27-May 4): Clem takes triple Blizzard Classic Cup @ BlizzCon 2026 - $100k prize pool Code S Season 1 (2026) - RO12 Results
Tourneys
Sea Duckling Open (Global, Bronze-Diamond) Maestros of The Game 2 announcement and schedule ! GSL Code S Season 1 (2026) RSL Revival: Season 5 - Qualifiers and Main Event Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament
Strategy
Custom Maps
[D]RTS in all its shapes and glory <3 [A] Nemrods 1/4 players
External Content
Mutation # 524 Death and Taxes The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 523 Firewall Mutation # 522 Flip My Base
Brood War
General
Do we have a pimpest plays list? BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ (Spoiler) Asl ro8 D winner interview BW General Discussion AI Question
Tourneys
[ASL21] Ro8 Day 4 [BSL22] RO16 Group Stage - 02 - 10 May [ASL21] Ro8 Day 3 [Megathread] Daily Proleagues
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Fighting Spirit mining rates What's the deal with APM & what's its true value Any training maps people recommend?
Other Games
General Games
Nintendo Switch Thread Dawn of War IV Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread OutLive 25 (RTS Game) Daigo vs Menard Best of 10
Dota 2
The Story of Wings Gaming
League of Legends
G2 just beat GenG in First stand
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
Vanilla Mini Mafia Mafia Game Mode Feedback/Ideas TL Mafia Community Thread Five o'clock TL Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread The Letting Off Steam Thread European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread 3D technology/software discussion
Fan Clubs
The IdrA Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Anime Discussion Thread [Manga] One Piece [Req][Books] Good Fantasy/SciFi books
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread Formula 1 Discussion McBoner: A hockey love story
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
streaming software Strange computer issues (software) [G] How to Block Livestream Ads
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Movie Stars In Video Games: …
TrAiDoS
ramps on octagon
StaticNine
Funny Nicknames
LUCKY_NOOB
ASL S21 English Commentary…
namkraft
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 1862 users

A Crisis of Confidence

Blogs > Treehead
Post a Reply
Treehead
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
999 Posts
June 18 2012 17:21 GMT
#1
Nobody knows everything. This statement is so obvious that it almost doesn’t have to be said, were it not to be the best way to frame this introduction. Everyone agrees on this point. I will readily concede that even I do not know everything. However, this concession is disingenuous – it is often said, but never truly meant. Tell me I don’t know everything and I will agree. But tell me I’m uninformed or just flat wrong on a specific topic and you’ll find yourself in an argument. We are born presumptuous and very few of us even make an attempt to kick the habit.

When we are 10 years old, we understand religion – how the world was created, who did the creating, and how it affects us today. When we are 15 years old, we understand our place in the world – who we ought to be, how we ought to act, and how to exert our will on the world around us. And by the time we reach 25 years old, we believe that we are able to understand the merits and faults of nearly every facet of society. The morality of abortion? Obvious. The solution to world hunger? Clear. I can explain nearly everything anyone encounters in the world. And for any new surprises in life, such as new scientific discoveries or new trends in human culture, I can always figure out pretty quickly a few words to say about who is to blame for it, how to explain it, or why it doesn’t matter. Universe - solved.

Feels pretty darn good, doesn’t it?

It’s also ridiculous. Yet, it’s kind of what we all think is true of ourselves and our beliefs.

Why we do it

Who we are personally is not entirely to blame for this behavior – partially it is the way we learn. When a baby learns to walk, he learns by doing. If he starts to walk in a way that is “wrong”, something bad will happen. He’ll realize he’s not able to do everything daddy does when he walks, or he’ll fall and get hurt. It’s the same way with learning most simple things. Once you start to go from the simple actions to the more complicated ones, though, the reality is that you may be allowed to live your entire life believing something which is stated as being obviously false given only very reasonable assumptions.

We also tend to believe what we feel is most likely to be true, but in doing so, almost always lost sight of the level of certainty that we ought to have. We think of certainty comparatively, and very seldom objectively. That's why things like the morality of abortion seems obvious. Were abortion not an issue, would this statement

"two reprodcutive cells come together count as a human being with every legal right and moral obligation that every other fully formed human being has - but only once they come together - not beforehand - and really, this means you better be aware of your actions conseqeunces on a cellular level or you may be committing homicide right now"

be believable with some form of proof or demonstration or reasonableness? Of course not! In this same sense, would the statement

"there is an age x, at which an unborn fetus magically transforms from being nothing more than a bit of a woman's body to being something every bit as respectable as you or I - so go ahead and play tennis with an x-1 month old fetus, but after that, it's a real being"

be believable without proof? Once again - of course not!

But given the two options, everyone picks one which suits them best, promptly forgets how little we know about the human reproductive process, and then is therefore capable of asserting their belief as though it were obviously and demonstrably the way things are.

Why it’s detrimental

Initially, there are two obvious points to make which I've lightly touched on above. For the idealist - overstated confidence makes you believe crazy things are real. For the socialite - this confidence also at best creates situations in which you are uncomfortable or incapable of acting reasonably. This means that, generally, there are things you just never talk about with friends who should be held in more confidence (because the unfortunate truth is that we favor confidence in beliefs over confidence in people) - things like religious convictions, politics, beliefs on morality. And when in situations where these things are being discussed (especially by those whose confidence in their beliefs are at more reasonable levels), you cannot possibly act reasonably.

But there's more - if you think about how credit cards are offered, how banks structure their fees, how advertisements work, how con artists operate - people who are overconfident can be endlessly exploited into situations where they stand to lose financially, emotionally or otherwise. And really, even if only one of the ways you are weakened by overconfident is seen as "valid" - what benefits does overconfidence really provide? A false feeling of stability?

How to Be More Reasonable

The first part is easy. It’s in the introduction. Just remind yourself you don’t know everything – you don’t have to and even if you felt you did, you can’t. The trick is meaning it this time. There are a broad category of things that people can only really guess about – and someone else’s guesses about what is true are about the least useful things you can think of.
Here’s a simple rule of thumb. If it seems like a lot of people disagree about something, and it seems like only one of the answers appears reasonable – then obviously you don’t really know much about the topic at hand. People don’t take incorrect positions just for fun. If the solution to something seems simple, yet people disagree about it, it’s probably actually complicated – maybe even complicated enough that we don’t want to take the time to understand it.

AND THAT’S OKAY. There’s no quiz at the end of life where if you don’t understand the intricacies of the debate between religion and science over how the universe began, you’ll get an “F”, get slapped on the wrists, and be forced to repeat your last life again. At least, I don’t know of any quiz like this. Remember our introduction. You don’t know everything, and you don’t need to.
So, having identified an issue you’re ignorant on either:

1. Admit ignorance and omit yourself from the debate, or
2. Provide yourself with a theory, and then approach that theory as a theory until you can explain beyond the shadow of a doubt. Note that this means explaining not only to yourself (who has no reason to doubt your theory), but to those who *would* actually doubt you – to those who already disagree with you.

I'm already going to get hell for using abortion, so I may as well stick to that path in illustrating this approach here. There's nothing wrong in saying that I lean pro-choice, as long as I admit that this is absent a large amount of information and experience (both not being a woman and not remembering the experience of being a fetus), and that people can have other theories, which I do not have to vehemently disagree with. In this way, I can be (and probably am) wrong. Personally, I have a theory that the "soul" is a real concept and that the "sudden humanness" of a fetus can be attached to the point at which the soul is completely attached to the person. That sounds ridiculous, and I admit that. But it's a theory - so it doesn't have to be right, it just has to be plausible.

Conclusion

Humanity is knowingly ignorant, but constantly disbelieves its ignorance until proven otherwise (and in doing the proving, it allows itself to reassert its claim by adjusting the set of what is "known" - i.e. humans knew everything when we believed the world was flat, and having now understood that it is round, we continue to know everything). This is how it is and how it has been since the beginning of time. These are things we likely cannot change. The human mind is too established and follows too strict a path to get where it must get in modern society. Our goal, then, should not be to change how we are, but to accept how we are created, understand the implications of how we are, and do our best to live with them. We are ignorant, and we won’t truly accept that we are ignorant. But if we can accept that this is the reality of the situation, we can keep our eyes open, keep our heads high, and do what humans do best – what humans were freaking born to do: to create, to adapt, and to learn - without allowing ourselves to be sidetracked by overconfidence.

TL;DR - I lost interest after the OP admitted he was kind of dumb. I probably know better than he does already, anyway.

*****
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
OSC
11:00
Mid Season Playoffs
WardiTV429
Liquipedia
GSL
09:30
2026 Season 1: Ro8 Group B
Zoun vs herOLIVE!
ByuN vs TBD
Ryung 1000
IntoTheiNu 388
CranKy Ducklings SOOP91
Rex36
GSL EN (SOOP)0
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
Ryung 1000
Lowko377
Hui .320
Livibee 46
Rex 36
herO (SOOP) 1
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 42217
Calm 7098
firebathero 5965
Sea 2294
Bisu 1598
Horang2 833
Hyuk 583
Soma 388
EffOrt 334
Stork 328
[ Show more ]
actioN 255
ggaemo 247
Zeus 246
BeSt 237
Light 214
Last 182
Snow 178
Pusan 155
Hm[arnc] 154
Hyun 138
Soulkey 121
Rush 87
Backho 81
ToSsGirL 65
Mind 62
hero 60
Killer 55
Mong 55
ajuk12(nOOB) 55
Aegong 40
sSak 25
scan(afreeca) 21
Shinee 19
sorry 18
Sacsri 17
JulyZerg 16
Bale 16
Terrorterran 15
Movie 14
GoRush 13
Shine 12
soO 11
IntoTheRainbow 11
Icarus 4
Dota 2
Gorgc1923
BananaSlamJamma90
League of Legends
Reynor56
Counter-Strike
x6flipin501
allub259
markeloff195
edward84
Super Smash Bros
Mew2King79
Other Games
summit1g6608
hiko2479
singsing1836
B2W.Neo812
monkeys_forever130
ArmadaUGS55
Organizations
StarCraft: Brood War
lovetv 12
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
[ Show 13 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Jankos1374
• TFBlade1018
Other Games
• WagamamaTV239
Upcoming Events
OSC
9m
Replay Cast
11h 9m
Escore
21h 9m
The PondCast
21h 9m
WardiTV Invitational
22h 9m
Zoun vs Ryung
Lambo vs ShoWTimE
Big Brain Bouts
1d 3h
Fjant vs Bly
Serral vs Shameless
OSC
1d 9h
Replay Cast
1d 11h
CranKy Ducklings
1d 21h
RSL Revival
1d 21h
SHIN vs Bunny
ByuN vs Shameless
[ Show More ]
WardiTV Invitational
1d 22h
Krystianer vs TriGGeR
Cure vs Rogue
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
2 days
BSL
2 days
Artosis vs TerrOr
spx vs StRyKeR
Replay Cast
2 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
2 days
RSL Revival
2 days
Cure vs Zoun
Clem vs Lambo
WardiTV Invitational
2 days
BSL
3 days
Dewalt vs DragOn
Aether vs Jimin
GSL
3 days
Afreeca Starleague
3 days
Soma vs Leta
Monday Night Weeklies
4 days
CranKy Ducklings
4 days
Afreeca Starleague
4 days
Light vs Flash
Replay Cast
5 days
Replay Cast
6 days
The PondCast
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2026-05-05
WardiTV TLMC #16
Nations Cup 2026

Ongoing

BSL Season 22
ASL Season 21
CSL 2026 SPRING (S20)
IPSL Spring 2026
KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 2
Acropolis #4
SCTL 2026 Spring
RSL Revival: Season 5
2026 GSL S1
BLAST Rivals Spring 2026
IEM Rio 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1
BLAST Open Spring 2026
ESL Pro League S23 Finals
ESL Pro League S23 Stage 1&2
PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026

Upcoming

Escore Tournament S2: W6
KK 2v2 League Season 1
BSL 22 Non-Korean Championship
YSL S3
Escore Tournament S2: W7
Escore Tournament S2: W8
CSLAN 4
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
HSC XXIX
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
Maestros of the Game 2
2026 GSL S2
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026
IEM Cologne Major 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 2
CS Asia Championships 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
Asian Champions League 2026
PGL Astana 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.