• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 05:55
CEST 11:55
KST 18:55
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Team Liquid Map Contest #22: Results and Winners7Code S Season 2 (2026): RO4 and Finals Preview12TL.net Map Contest #22 - Voting & Ladder Map Selection7Code S Season 2 (2026) - RO8 Preview7[ASL21] Finals Preview: Two Legacies21
Community News
Weekly Cups (June 8-14): Clem and Solar double, PTR tested0RSL: S6 Finals played at BlizzCon 202611Douyu Cup 2026: $20,000 Legends Event (June 26-28)10[BSL22] Non-Korean Championship from 13 to 28 June4Weekly Cups (May 25-31): Clem doubles, 2v2 circuit heads toward finale0
StarCraft 2
General
TL Poll: How do you feel about the 5.0.16 PTR balance changes? Code S Season 2 (2026) - RO8 Preview Updates to The Core/Core Lite for v5.0.16? RSL: S6 Finals played at BlizzCon 2026 Weekly Cups (June 8-14): Clem and Solar double, PTR tested
Tourneys
Crank Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League GSL CK #4 20-21th June Douyu Cup 2026: $20,000 Legends Event (June 26-28) Maestros of The Game 2 announcement and schedule ! Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament
Strategy
[G] Having the right mentality to improve
Custom Maps
Work In Progress Melee Maps [D]RTS in all its shapes and glory <3
External Content
Mutation # 530 One For All The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 529 Opportunities Unleashed Mutation # 528 Infection Detected
Brood War
General
BW General Discussion vespene.gg — BW replays in browser Where is EffOrt? BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ Quality of life changes in BW that you will like ?
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues [ASL21] Grand Finals [BSL22] Grand Finals - Sunday 21:00 CEST Escore Tournament StarCraft Season 2
Strategy
Relatively freeroll strategies Creating a full chart of Zerg builds Why doesn't anyone use restoration? Any training maps people recommend?
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread ZeroSpace Megathread Beyond All Reason Total War: Warhammer 40K Path of Exile
Dota 2
Looking for a Dota Mentor Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread UK Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread [H]Internet/Gaming Cafe Tips and Tricks Trading/Investing Thread
Fan Clubs
The HerO Fan Club! The herO Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Req][Books] Good Fantasy/SciFi books [TV/BOOK] *SPOILERS* Game of Thrones Discussion [Manga] One Piece
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 Formula 1 Discussion Cricket [SPORT] NBA General Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread Facing Challenges in Mobile App Development
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Does Workplace Frustration D…
TrAiDoS
An Exploration of th…
waywardstrategy
I'm an arrogant trash talke…
FlaShFTW
Gauntlet SC2: A Retrospectiv…
Ctone23
Why RTS gamers make better f…
gosubay
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 8369 users

A Crisis of Confidence

Blogs > Treehead
Post a Reply
Treehead
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
999 Posts
June 18 2012 17:21 GMT
#1
Nobody knows everything. This statement is so obvious that it almost doesn’t have to be said, were it not to be the best way to frame this introduction. Everyone agrees on this point. I will readily concede that even I do not know everything. However, this concession is disingenuous – it is often said, but never truly meant. Tell me I don’t know everything and I will agree. But tell me I’m uninformed or just flat wrong on a specific topic and you’ll find yourself in an argument. We are born presumptuous and very few of us even make an attempt to kick the habit.

When we are 10 years old, we understand religion – how the world was created, who did the creating, and how it affects us today. When we are 15 years old, we understand our place in the world – who we ought to be, how we ought to act, and how to exert our will on the world around us. And by the time we reach 25 years old, we believe that we are able to understand the merits and faults of nearly every facet of society. The morality of abortion? Obvious. The solution to world hunger? Clear. I can explain nearly everything anyone encounters in the world. And for any new surprises in life, such as new scientific discoveries or new trends in human culture, I can always figure out pretty quickly a few words to say about who is to blame for it, how to explain it, or why it doesn’t matter. Universe - solved.

Feels pretty darn good, doesn’t it?

It’s also ridiculous. Yet, it’s kind of what we all think is true of ourselves and our beliefs.

Why we do it

Who we are personally is not entirely to blame for this behavior – partially it is the way we learn. When a baby learns to walk, he learns by doing. If he starts to walk in a way that is “wrong”, something bad will happen. He’ll realize he’s not able to do everything daddy does when he walks, or he’ll fall and get hurt. It’s the same way with learning most simple things. Once you start to go from the simple actions to the more complicated ones, though, the reality is that you may be allowed to live your entire life believing something which is stated as being obviously false given only very reasonable assumptions.

We also tend to believe what we feel is most likely to be true, but in doing so, almost always lost sight of the level of certainty that we ought to have. We think of certainty comparatively, and very seldom objectively. That's why things like the morality of abortion seems obvious. Were abortion not an issue, would this statement

"two reprodcutive cells come together count as a human being with every legal right and moral obligation that every other fully formed human being has - but only once they come together - not beforehand - and really, this means you better be aware of your actions conseqeunces on a cellular level or you may be committing homicide right now"

be believable with some form of proof or demonstration or reasonableness? Of course not! In this same sense, would the statement

"there is an age x, at which an unborn fetus magically transforms from being nothing more than a bit of a woman's body to being something every bit as respectable as you or I - so go ahead and play tennis with an x-1 month old fetus, but after that, it's a real being"

be believable without proof? Once again - of course not!

But given the two options, everyone picks one which suits them best, promptly forgets how little we know about the human reproductive process, and then is therefore capable of asserting their belief as though it were obviously and demonstrably the way things are.

Why it’s detrimental

Initially, there are two obvious points to make which I've lightly touched on above. For the idealist - overstated confidence makes you believe crazy things are real. For the socialite - this confidence also at best creates situations in which you are uncomfortable or incapable of acting reasonably. This means that, generally, there are things you just never talk about with friends who should be held in more confidence (because the unfortunate truth is that we favor confidence in beliefs over confidence in people) - things like religious convictions, politics, beliefs on morality. And when in situations where these things are being discussed (especially by those whose confidence in their beliefs are at more reasonable levels), you cannot possibly act reasonably.

But there's more - if you think about how credit cards are offered, how banks structure their fees, how advertisements work, how con artists operate - people who are overconfident can be endlessly exploited into situations where they stand to lose financially, emotionally or otherwise. And really, even if only one of the ways you are weakened by overconfident is seen as "valid" - what benefits does overconfidence really provide? A false feeling of stability?

How to Be More Reasonable

The first part is easy. It’s in the introduction. Just remind yourself you don’t know everything – you don’t have to and even if you felt you did, you can’t. The trick is meaning it this time. There are a broad category of things that people can only really guess about – and someone else’s guesses about what is true are about the least useful things you can think of.
Here’s a simple rule of thumb. If it seems like a lot of people disagree about something, and it seems like only one of the answers appears reasonable – then obviously you don’t really know much about the topic at hand. People don’t take incorrect positions just for fun. If the solution to something seems simple, yet people disagree about it, it’s probably actually complicated – maybe even complicated enough that we don’t want to take the time to understand it.

AND THAT’S OKAY. There’s no quiz at the end of life where if you don’t understand the intricacies of the debate between religion and science over how the universe began, you’ll get an “F”, get slapped on the wrists, and be forced to repeat your last life again. At least, I don’t know of any quiz like this. Remember our introduction. You don’t know everything, and you don’t need to.
So, having identified an issue you’re ignorant on either:

1. Admit ignorance and omit yourself from the debate, or
2. Provide yourself with a theory, and then approach that theory as a theory until you can explain beyond the shadow of a doubt. Note that this means explaining not only to yourself (who has no reason to doubt your theory), but to those who *would* actually doubt you – to those who already disagree with you.

I'm already going to get hell for using abortion, so I may as well stick to that path in illustrating this approach here. There's nothing wrong in saying that I lean pro-choice, as long as I admit that this is absent a large amount of information and experience (both not being a woman and not remembering the experience of being a fetus), and that people can have other theories, which I do not have to vehemently disagree with. In this way, I can be (and probably am) wrong. Personally, I have a theory that the "soul" is a real concept and that the "sudden humanness" of a fetus can be attached to the point at which the soul is completely attached to the person. That sounds ridiculous, and I admit that. But it's a theory - so it doesn't have to be right, it just has to be plausible.

Conclusion

Humanity is knowingly ignorant, but constantly disbelieves its ignorance until proven otherwise (and in doing the proving, it allows itself to reassert its claim by adjusting the set of what is "known" - i.e. humans knew everything when we believed the world was flat, and having now understood that it is round, we continue to know everything). This is how it is and how it has been since the beginning of time. These are things we likely cannot change. The human mind is too established and follows too strict a path to get where it must get in modern society. Our goal, then, should not be to change how we are, but to accept how we are created, understand the implications of how we are, and do our best to live with them. We are ignorant, and we won’t truly accept that we are ignorant. But if we can accept that this is the reality of the situation, we can keep our eyes open, keep our heads high, and do what humans do best – what humans were freaking born to do: to create, to adapt, and to learn - without allowing ourselves to be sidetracked by overconfidence.

TL;DR - I lost interest after the OP admitted he was kind of dumb. I probably know better than he does already, anyway.

*****
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Replay Cast
09:00
KungFu Cup 2026 Week 11
CranKy Ducklings67
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
SortOf 117
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 30486
Sea 3137
Soulkey 836
BeSt 570
Leta 324
Horang2 315
Shuttle 303
Zeus 261
Mong 102
Killer 93
[ Show more ]
ToSsGirL 88
Aegong 87
EffOrt 76
hero 47
Sharp 41
JYJ 28
Pusan 27
sorry 23
Backho 15
Noble 12
ajuk12(nOOB) 11
NotJumperer 9
soO 6
Light 0
Dota 2
XaKoH 410
Counter-Strike
olofmeister1914
Super Smash Bros
Mew2King131
Other Games
ceh9526
crisheroes259
Fuzer 104
Happy100
Dewaltoss31
Trikslyr21
Organizations
Dota 2
PGL Dota 2 - Secondary Stream2688
Other Games
gamesdonequick789
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
[ Show 14 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• LUISG 26
• CranKy Ducklings SOOP10
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• iopq 3
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Jankos1692
Upcoming Events
Kung Fu Cup
1h 5m
The PondCast
1d
WardiTV Spring Champion…
1d 1h
OSC
1d 3h
OSC
1d 14h
CranKy Ducklings
2 days
WardiTV Spring Champion…
2 days
WardiTV Spring Champion…
3 days
GSL
3 days
Maru vs ShoWTimE
Classic vs Reynor
herO vs Lambo
Solar vs Clem
BSL22 NKC (BSL vs China)
3 days
XuanXuan vs Jaystar
Mihu vs Messiah
eOnzErG vs Dewalt
Bonyth vs Jaystar
TerrOr vs Messiah
XuanXuan vs Mihu
eOnzErG vs Jaystar
[ Show More ]
Replay Cast
3 days
WardiTV Spring Champion…
4 days
GSL
4 days
Patches Events
4 days
BSL22 NKC (BSL vs China)
4 days
Dewalt vs Messiah
Bonyth vs Mihu
TerrOr vs XuanXuan
eOnzErG vs Messiah
Jaystar vs Mihu
Dewalt vs XuanXuan
Bonyth vs TerrOr
Replay Cast
4 days
WardiTV Weekly
5 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2026-06-16
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
Heroes Pulsing #1

Ongoing

IPSL Spring 2026
KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 2
Acropolis #4
CSCL: Masked Kings S4
YSL S3
BSL 22 Non-Korean Championship
SCTL 2026 Spring
Maestros of the Game 2
WardiTV Spring 2026
Murky Cup 2026
Heroes Pulsing #2
IEM Cologne Major 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 2
CS Asia Championships 2026
Asian Champions League 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
PGL Astana 2026
BLAST Rivals Spring 2026
IEM Rio 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1

Upcoming

CSL 2026 Summer (S21)
CSLAN 4
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Revival: Season 6
CranK Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League
HSC XXIX
Douyu Cup 2026
BCC 2026
Heroes Pulsing #3
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.