• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 12:30
CEST 18:30
KST 01:30
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
TL.net Map Contest #22 - Voting & Ladder Map Selection2Code S Season 2 (2026) - RO8 Preview5[ASL21] Finals Preview: Two Legacies21Code S Season 2 (2026) - RO12 Preview2herO wins GSL Code S Season 1 (2026)7
Community News
[BSL22] Non-Korean Championship from 13 to 28 June0Weekly Cups (May 25-31): Clem doubles, 2v2 circuit heads toward finale0StarCraft II 5.0.16 PTR Patch Notes may 26th142Weekly Cups (May 18-24): MaxPax wins doubles0Crank Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League5
StarCraft 2
General
My starcraft 2 changes StarCraft II 5.0.16 PTR Patch Notes may 26th The Death of Cheese: From a Professional Cheeser Oliveira Would Have Returned If EWC Continued SC2 Parody - "Somebody That I Used to Troll"
Tourneys
Maestros of The Game 2 announcement and schedule ! Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament RSL Revival: Season 5 - Qualifiers and Main Event Crank Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League GSL Code S Season 2 (2026)
Strategy
[G] Having the right mentality to improve
Custom Maps
[D]RTS in all its shapes and glory <3 [A] Nemrods 1/4 players
External Content
The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 528 Infection Detected Welcome to the External Content forum Mutation # 527 Hell Train
Brood War
General
FlaShFTW vs A.Alm Grudge Match Event [BSL22] Non-Korean Championship from 13 to 28 June vespene.gg — BW replays in browser Quality of life changes in BW that you will like ? Data analysis on 70 million replays
Tourneys
[ASL21] Grand Finals [Megathread] Daily Proleagues Escore Tournament StarCraft Season 2 [BSL22] WB Final & LB Semis - Saturday 21:00 CEST
Strategy
Any training maps people recommend? Muta micro map competition [G] Hydra ZvZ: An Introduction Fighting Spirit mining rates
Other Games
General Games
Path of Exile Nintendo Switch Thread Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread ZeroSpace Megathread Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
Vanilla Mini Mafia Mafia Game Mode Feedback/Ideas TL Mafia Community Thread Five o'clock TL Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread How cold is too cold to be outdoors? Dating: How's your luck? Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Trading/Investing Thread
Fan Clubs
The herO Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread [Req][Books] Good Fantasy/SciFi books
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread McBoner: A hockey love story TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 Formula 1 Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread Facing Challenges in Mobile App Development
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Esportsmanship: How to NOT B…
TrAiDoS
Why RTS gamers make better f…
gosubay
ramps on octagon
StaticNine
ASL S21 English Commentary…
namkraft
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 4296 users

A Crisis of Confidence

Blogs > Treehead
Post a Reply
Treehead
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
999 Posts
June 18 2012 17:21 GMT
#1
Nobody knows everything. This statement is so obvious that it almost doesn’t have to be said, were it not to be the best way to frame this introduction. Everyone agrees on this point. I will readily concede that even I do not know everything. However, this concession is disingenuous – it is often said, but never truly meant. Tell me I don’t know everything and I will agree. But tell me I’m uninformed or just flat wrong on a specific topic and you’ll find yourself in an argument. We are born presumptuous and very few of us even make an attempt to kick the habit.

When we are 10 years old, we understand religion – how the world was created, who did the creating, and how it affects us today. When we are 15 years old, we understand our place in the world – who we ought to be, how we ought to act, and how to exert our will on the world around us. And by the time we reach 25 years old, we believe that we are able to understand the merits and faults of nearly every facet of society. The morality of abortion? Obvious. The solution to world hunger? Clear. I can explain nearly everything anyone encounters in the world. And for any new surprises in life, such as new scientific discoveries or new trends in human culture, I can always figure out pretty quickly a few words to say about who is to blame for it, how to explain it, or why it doesn’t matter. Universe - solved.

Feels pretty darn good, doesn’t it?

It’s also ridiculous. Yet, it’s kind of what we all think is true of ourselves and our beliefs.

Why we do it

Who we are personally is not entirely to blame for this behavior – partially it is the way we learn. When a baby learns to walk, he learns by doing. If he starts to walk in a way that is “wrong”, something bad will happen. He’ll realize he’s not able to do everything daddy does when he walks, or he’ll fall and get hurt. It’s the same way with learning most simple things. Once you start to go from the simple actions to the more complicated ones, though, the reality is that you may be allowed to live your entire life believing something which is stated as being obviously false given only very reasonable assumptions.

We also tend to believe what we feel is most likely to be true, but in doing so, almost always lost sight of the level of certainty that we ought to have. We think of certainty comparatively, and very seldom objectively. That's why things like the morality of abortion seems obvious. Were abortion not an issue, would this statement

"two reprodcutive cells come together count as a human being with every legal right and moral obligation that every other fully formed human being has - but only once they come together - not beforehand - and really, this means you better be aware of your actions conseqeunces on a cellular level or you may be committing homicide right now"

be believable with some form of proof or demonstration or reasonableness? Of course not! In this same sense, would the statement

"there is an age x, at which an unborn fetus magically transforms from being nothing more than a bit of a woman's body to being something every bit as respectable as you or I - so go ahead and play tennis with an x-1 month old fetus, but after that, it's a real being"

be believable without proof? Once again - of course not!

But given the two options, everyone picks one which suits them best, promptly forgets how little we know about the human reproductive process, and then is therefore capable of asserting their belief as though it were obviously and demonstrably the way things are.

Why it’s detrimental

Initially, there are two obvious points to make which I've lightly touched on above. For the idealist - overstated confidence makes you believe crazy things are real. For the socialite - this confidence also at best creates situations in which you are uncomfortable or incapable of acting reasonably. This means that, generally, there are things you just never talk about with friends who should be held in more confidence (because the unfortunate truth is that we favor confidence in beliefs over confidence in people) - things like religious convictions, politics, beliefs on morality. And when in situations where these things are being discussed (especially by those whose confidence in their beliefs are at more reasonable levels), you cannot possibly act reasonably.

But there's more - if you think about how credit cards are offered, how banks structure their fees, how advertisements work, how con artists operate - people who are overconfident can be endlessly exploited into situations where they stand to lose financially, emotionally or otherwise. And really, even if only one of the ways you are weakened by overconfident is seen as "valid" - what benefits does overconfidence really provide? A false feeling of stability?

How to Be More Reasonable

The first part is easy. It’s in the introduction. Just remind yourself you don’t know everything – you don’t have to and even if you felt you did, you can’t. The trick is meaning it this time. There are a broad category of things that people can only really guess about – and someone else’s guesses about what is true are about the least useful things you can think of.
Here’s a simple rule of thumb. If it seems like a lot of people disagree about something, and it seems like only one of the answers appears reasonable – then obviously you don’t really know much about the topic at hand. People don’t take incorrect positions just for fun. If the solution to something seems simple, yet people disagree about it, it’s probably actually complicated – maybe even complicated enough that we don’t want to take the time to understand it.

AND THAT’S OKAY. There’s no quiz at the end of life where if you don’t understand the intricacies of the debate between religion and science over how the universe began, you’ll get an “F”, get slapped on the wrists, and be forced to repeat your last life again. At least, I don’t know of any quiz like this. Remember our introduction. You don’t know everything, and you don’t need to.
So, having identified an issue you’re ignorant on either:

1. Admit ignorance and omit yourself from the debate, or
2. Provide yourself with a theory, and then approach that theory as a theory until you can explain beyond the shadow of a doubt. Note that this means explaining not only to yourself (who has no reason to doubt your theory), but to those who *would* actually doubt you – to those who already disagree with you.

I'm already going to get hell for using abortion, so I may as well stick to that path in illustrating this approach here. There's nothing wrong in saying that I lean pro-choice, as long as I admit that this is absent a large amount of information and experience (both not being a woman and not remembering the experience of being a fetus), and that people can have other theories, which I do not have to vehemently disagree with. In this way, I can be (and probably am) wrong. Personally, I have a theory that the "soul" is a real concept and that the "sudden humanness" of a fetus can be attached to the point at which the soul is completely attached to the person. That sounds ridiculous, and I admit that. But it's a theory - so it doesn't have to be right, it just has to be plausible.

Conclusion

Humanity is knowingly ignorant, but constantly disbelieves its ignorance until proven otherwise (and in doing the proving, it allows itself to reassert its claim by adjusting the set of what is "known" - i.e. humans knew everything when we believed the world was flat, and having now understood that it is round, we continue to know everything). This is how it is and how it has been since the beginning of time. These are things we likely cannot change. The human mind is too established and follows too strict a path to get where it must get in modern society. Our goal, then, should not be to change how we are, but to accept how we are created, understand the implications of how we are, and do our best to live with them. We are ignorant, and we won’t truly accept that we are ignorant. But if we can accept that this is the reality of the situation, we can keep our eyes open, keep our heads high, and do what humans do best – what humans were freaking born to do: to create, to adapt, and to learn - without allowing ourselves to be sidetracked by overconfidence.

TL;DR - I lost interest after the OP admitted he was kind of dumb. I probably know better than he does already, anyway.

*****
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Maestros of the Game
15:30
Group B
ByuN vs herO
Rogue vs Bunny
IntoTheiNu 1441
RotterdaM1110
ComeBackTV 868
Ryung 435
TaKeTV 341
SteadfastSC267
Rex150
3DClanTV 94
EnkiAlexander 58
CosmosSc2 39
LiquipediaDiscussion
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
15:00
Warm Up Cup #4
uThermal377
IndyStarCraft 135
Liquipedia
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
RotterdaM 1110
Ryung 435
uThermal 377
SteadfastSC 267
Rex 150
IndyStarCraft 135
ProTech94
UpATreeSC 43
CosmosSc2 39
goblin 12
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 41397
Calm 8021
Shuttle 1688
Mini 862
actioN 506
Rush 344
ggaemo 282
hero 123
Sharp 94
Zeus 57
[ Show more ]
PianO 29
Terrorterran 28
sorry 24
Sexy 21
JYJ 20
Movie 18
Shine 17
Rock 17
Sacsri 16
ajuk12(nOOB) 11
Dota 2
Gorgc4408
qojqva1755
Counter-Strike
fl0m9121
byalli800
zeus426
ceh9304
x6flipin167
Other Games
singsing2523
hiko1020
B2W.Neo967
FrodaN785
Beastyqt671
Dendi573
Hui .232
QueenE77
amsayoshi49
Trikslyr30
fpsfer 1
Grubby0
Organizations
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
[ Show 16 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• StrangeGG 40
• poizon28 27
• iHatsuTV 8
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• sooper7s
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
StarCraft: Brood War
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
League of Legends
• Jankos2211
• TFBlade896
Other Games
• WagamamaTV201
Upcoming Events
Replay Cast
16h 30m
WardiTV Spring Champion…
18h 30m
OSC
20h 30m
Maestros of the Game
23h
Serral vs Percival
SHIN vs ShoWTimE
Replay Cast
1d 7h
Replay Cast
1d 16h
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
1d 22h
Maestros of the Game
1d 23h
Clem vs Lambo
Zoun vs SKillous
Replay Cast
2 days
Replay Cast
2 days
Solar vs Classic
[ Show More ]
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
2 days
Grudge Match
2 days
FlaShFTW vs A.Alm
OSC
3 days
GSL
3 days
herO vs Rogue
Maru vs Cure
Patches Events
3 days
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
3 days
BSL
4 days
Monday Night Weeklies
4 days
Replay Cast
5 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
5 days
Replay Cast
6 days
Kung Fu Cup
6 days
Maestros of the Game
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

KK 2v2 League Season 1
RSL Revival: Season 5
Heroes Pulsing #1

Ongoing

BSL Season 22
IPSL Spring 2026
KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 2
Acropolis #4
CSCL: Masked Kings S4
YSL S3
SCTL 2026 Spring
WardiTV Spring 2026
Maestros of the Game 2
2026 GSL S2
Murky Cup 2026
IEM Cologne Major 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 2
CS Asia Championships 2026
Asian Champions League 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
PGL Astana 2026
BLAST Rivals Spring 2026
IEM Rio 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1
BLAST Open Spring 2026

Upcoming

BSL 22 Non-Korean Championship
CSLAN 4
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
CranK Gathers Season 4: BW vs SC2 Team League
HSC XXIX
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
Heroes Pulsing #3
Heroes Pulsing #2
Esports World Cup 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.