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Trying to break down why I am betting on which matches. Feel free to contribute but ground the reasoning in stats or past events. I vote with my heart too, but I think betting against logic is bad!
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/images/players/1614.jpg) vs ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/images/players/590.jpg)
Naniwa (2.540) vs. MVP (1.549)
Great odds on naniwa.
Naniwa: His wins in Korea against terran opponents are against Virus, Ryung. Both are below 50% winrate in TvP.
Internationally he has taken games off Demulism, Thorzain and Illusion and a lost game to MKP. A 66.77& against the regular Code A/S terrans visiting foreign tournaments is not bad at all.
MVP: Lastest TvP wins are against Puzzle 2-0 and loss against Hero 2-1. Not much data to go from here. A solid 61.82% winrate nonetheless.
Other factors:
- Khaldor has stated that Naniwa is grinding 60 games a day. Naniwa can brainstorm with Squirtle on PvT's. We have no idea how many games MVP are playing. For good or bad.
- MVP's injury. Big thing that may have prevented proper preparation/practice.
Conclusion: Im throwing a few bucks on Naniwa cause I like the stats and the 60 games a day rumor from Khaldor.
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/images/players/2322.jpg) vs ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/images/players/629.jpg)
Parting(2.050) vs. Oz(1.813)
Loads of pvp games has been played for both of these players recently.
Parting:
Record: 22 wins - 11 losses (66.67%)
Won: 2-0 Huk, Sase 2-0, kiwikaki 2-0, Grubby 2-0, 2-1 Oz
Lost to: MC 2-1, Tails 2-1.
Oz:
Record: 15 wins - 11 losses (57.69%)
Won: 2-1 Grubby, San, Hwangsin 2-1, Axlsav 2-1
Lost to: Parting 2-1, Hero 2-0,
Conclusion: With a 57.69% winrate for Oz vs. 66.68 for Parting I cant see why not throw a few bucks on Parting. He's a beastly macro player and has the best odds. He also won the last pvp between these two players.
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/images/players/1849.jpg) vs ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/images/players/969.jpg)
Liquid.Taeja(1.877) vs. ST.Squirtle(1.980)
The money is 1.877 to Taeja
and 1.980 to Squirtle.
The odds are close and there is no handicap option for this match (?).
Looking at their individuel percentages:
Taeja:
Record: 52 wins - 25 losses (67.53%)
Hes won against Squirtle 2-0 last time they met. Before that 1-0 on Dualsight GSL Up and Downs.
Lost to a guy in ESV grand prix named Tiger with average PvT.
Squirtle:
Record: 38 wins - 33 losses (53.52%)
Recent games; Victory against Maru (42.86% winrate vs. P out of 21 games), MMA (46.15% winrate out of 39 games).
Both of these terrans are defined as weaker TvPs and this doesnt add to squirtles favor.
Conclusion: Based on the past between these two great players Taeja has an advantage, even though Squirtle is coming off a strong run at IPL4.
Supernova vs. Hero
N/A - Could go get the TLPD stats, but Im too tired now.
Betting strategy
Who has good betting strategy and can give me tips? I can look at statistics and current trends, rumors but when it comes to betting im still a total newbie. I like leaning on simple arithmetics as it disengages my emotions. I dont think they belong at the betting table. I give credit to Darkforce for making this blog 
Darkforces moneymaker (In german where he talks about you shouldnt bet more than a certain percentage (5/10%?) of your total bank.
Added some images from tlpd for funzies.
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Double post! Please delete mods!
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Im a bit confused about the odds. Is the player on the left the favorite? Also what are the odds for supernova vs hero just out of curiosity? I think any series could go etiher way, so it should be entertaining might as well try your luck.
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On May 02 2012 08:16 Sergio1992 wrote:
where do you bet?
Liquibet, top left.
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Actually these are the odds from Pinnacle Sports @ Starcraft 2 League/GSL.
The favorite player is the one with the lower number as the odds are with him. If he wins you get paid less than if the underdog would have won. MVP is the favorite with the 1.549 times the payout vs. if naniwa wins it pays out 2.540.
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Betting solely with logic:
MVP vs Naniwa
Realistically MVP is the three time champion and motherfucking MVP even if it is TVP (which his isn't even bad, it's just...not a lot of it has been done until recently) and his wrists are exploded and his spine is exploded.
Either could take it, and either way excuses will be made. In terms of odds I'd give MVP the edge blindly, but would bet on Naniwa if I knew MVPs health was worse lately.
Oz vs Squirtle
Oz is one of the best pvpers period and isn't afraid to admit it, and that when he plays smart he doesn't lose. pvp is still pvp to an extent and that doesnt guarentee he'll play smart, but...knowing nothing of squirtles pvp and that oz plays really realy smart (or really really dumb) and it's the ro8, i expect him to take it convincingly.
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Well I got Naniwa vs. MVP wrong, but Parting vs. Oz turned out as predicted.
Profit/Loss equals:
MVP vs. naniwa: 2.540 20.00 -20.00
Parting vs. Oz: 2.050 6.00 6.30
= 26.00 -13.70
I really shouldnt have bet against a three time champion.
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On May 02 2012 08:30 Advocado wrote:
Actually these are the odds from Pinnacle Sports @ Starcraft 2 League/GSL.
The favorite player is the one with the lower number as the odds are with him. If he wins you get paid less than if the underdog would have won. MVP is the favorite with the 1.549 times the payout vs. if naniwa wins it pays out 2.540.
thanks :D
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Small update with Hero vs Supernova.
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/images/players/222.jpg) vs ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/images/players/26.jpg)
Hero (1.909) vs Supernova(1.943)
SuperNoVa <Entombed Valley> HerO
SuperNoVa <Metropolis>HerO
SuperNoVa <Atlantis Spaceship> HerO
SuperNoVa <ESV Ohana>HerO (if needed)
SuperNoVa <ESV ClouD Kingdom>HerO (if needed)
Hero
Record: 13 wins - 16 losses (44.83%)
Recent games: He's beaten MvP 2-1 (S), 1-0 asd, keen (GSTL)
lost to Maru 2-1
Maru has bad PvT and MvP excellent (havent watched the code s games yesterday, so I cannot comment).
Safe to say Hero's PvT is slightly above average at best. He beat out MVP which is very surprising cause losing to Maru who has statistically way worse TvP.
Supernova
Record: 28 wins - 18 losses (60.87%)
Recent games: 4-1 vs genius (S), 2-0 Seed, 1-0 Creator
No losses from within the last month. Too few games. Genius is an excellent PvT player however and if Supernova can beat him, he stands a good chance to beat Hero.
Other factors: Both of these players probably know eachother well from training together in the oGs house (I do not know if they still do, but its likely. I cant say wether this favours hero or supernova. Im guessing it will favor hero cause supernova is known to be cheesy (?).
Conclusion: Supernova is going to take this series based on previous achievements. Obviously many will vote with their hearts and go for Hero.
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EPT
