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SC2 Liquibet I : Frustrations and Hopes

Blogs > Nesserev
Post a Reply
Nesserev
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Belgium2760 Posts
January 25 2012 22:46 GMT
#1
--- Nuked ---

Lord_J
Profile Joined April 2011
Kenya1085 Posts
January 26 2012 00:39 GMT
#2
I expected Group H to play out much as you did. I still think those were the smart picks. You can't get 100% in liquibet, but if you make the smart picks, you can get about 2/3. If you start second-guessing yourself and picking against your brain, then you'll probably do even worse.

I'm really looking forward to these team league matches myself.

oGs vs. ZeNEX:

oGs is a rightful favorite against ZeNEX, but not a prohibitive one (TheStC did all-kill ZeNEX in the KSL, though, for whatever that's worth). The idea of oGs sending out Illusion is an interesting one, and something I think could definitely happen (it wouldn't be his first televised game, though; ZeNEX sent him out first against IM in GSTL March, when LosirA all killed them). But have you noticed how terran-centric oGs is now, having lost HerO, Zenio, and MC? Their best players are Nada, SuperNoVa, TheStC, and fOrGG -- all terrans. Their best Zergs are Luvsic and Cezanne, and their best Protosses are InCa and Vines. It's not a very well-rounded lineup. It would benefit from being oGs-TL, but as far as I know, that's not the case this GSTL.

I think ZeNEX is going to use mostly new players. I doubt we'll see Kyrix (does he even still play? he hasn't got a game in the TLPD since he was knocked out of Code A). They've been relying heavily on players like Pet, Sparta, Mushroom, Extreme, and Life in the smaller team leagues like IPL and KSL, and I think we'll see more of the same at GSTL. I think Life is the best player on their roster, but he tends to be inconsistent. Actually, that's true of a lot of ZeNEX's new players; I've seen flashes of brilliance from Mushroom, for example, but other times he looks extremely ordinary. If ZeNEX is going to have success in this match, one of their newer players is going to rise up and put together a few consecutive good games. I think we might see an impressive game or two, but probably not enough to actually win the match.

Slayers vs FXO:

SlayerS-FXO should be much closer. Because SlayerS don't play in the KSL, there's a lot less matches of them out there lately as a team; it's really only their matches in IPL, where they were fairly underwhelming overall (except for Golden, who's no longer with the team anyway) since the last GSTL. I think SlayerS overall have the better, deeper roster, but FXO match up pretty well with them. Lucky is a player that has given several SlayerS players trouble in the past, and Leenock could get multiple kills if he can avoid being sniped by GanZi. Oz is a player who matches up well with most of SlayerS' roster, as many of their players are weakest against Protoss. I think SlayerS will really miss CoCa (assuming he won't be participating), since he would be the ideal Oz sniper. Without him, I think Taeja might be the next best choice; or, they could use MMA in that role, with a prepared build and his map choice he'd definitely have a solid chance.

If SlayerS can avoid dropping many games to those three, the match should be theirs--I don't think the rest of FXO's roster poses any huge threat to them. GuMiho--who was the captain of my fantasy GSTL team--seems to be slumping hard in TvT, so I don't really see him doing much against any of the SlayerS terrans. In fact, if I were the coach, I'd probably be more inclined to use asd than GuMiho if the matchup is going to be TvT. Ultimately, I think this match is going to come down to which team is more prepared, has the better overall strategy and has correctly chosen their snipers and is able to dictate the flow of the match. In the end, I went with FXO, but I think it's pretty much a tossup.
No relation to Monsieur J.
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