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GSL 2012 S1 Ro32 Preview

Blogs > jkc
Post a Reply
jkc
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States83 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-01-09 02:15:29
January 08 2012 23:10 GMT
#1
[image loading]



[image loading]


It is a new year and a new GSL season, and with a totally different Code S format. Due to the new Bo3 format for the Ro32, it is hard making any sort of reliable predictions on who will advance from the upcoming round. There will be more games played in each round as well, so now players need the consistency as well as the skill to go all the way to the finals.

Many old names such as (P)MVPGenius and (T)oGsNaDa are resurging, and with some completely new players like (P)ST_Parting and (P)SlayerS_Brown are entering the mix, so you can be sure that games in every group will be interesting. While the player who have already earned their elite status like (T)IMMVP and (T)SlayerS_MMA will undoubtedly do well, other players who have yet to find their pace will be challenged to stay in Code S.

One thing that definitely won’t change no matter how much GOM changes the Code S format is the terran dominance in Code S. I’m sure (Z)MVPDongRaeGu, (P)oGsMC, and (Z)FXOLeenock will do their best to make sure that doesn’t happen, but with the rising oGs terran trio (T)NaDa, (T)SuperNoVa, and (T)Fin (fOrGG) standing in their way along with the other three terran GSL champions, it’s a safe bet that we’ll see a terran again in the next GSL finals.


Players to Watch

The IMMVP Category

[image loading]
(T)IMMVP

Let’s take a look at his opponents. (Z)Lucky has been on a tear lately, almost sweeping his GSL Dec. Up-Down group in dominating fashion and beating multiple SlayerS terrans to secure second place in IPL 4. (Z)Professor Tea is three-time GSL champion. (Z)IdrA is one of the elite foreigners with a consistent history in past GSLs.

All of that said MVP might drop a game in his group.

(Z)Leenock gave MVP a run for his money in the GSL Dec. Semi-Finals, but it was a much closer series than people would like to remember. Whereas MMA and MarineKing have versatile and explosive TvZ styles, MVP favors the style that zergs fear the most; the safe, boring, unrelenting macro style that crushes maxed zerg armies.

MVP has gotten a bit complacent in his recent TvZ games, being a bit predictable as he tends to rely on his superb mechanics to get victories from macro-oriented builds, but it has worked for him in the past, and it’ll work again.

The Rising Stars

[image loading]
(T)NSHoSeo_Jjakji

Jjakji is not an elite terran in my book just yet, even though he took the GSL Nov. championship. The reason why is because he hasn’t experienced the fall from grace that MMA and MVP had to go through. Only by experiencing the bitterness of defeat after making it to the top of their worlds and climbing their way back up to prominence did MMA and MVP gain their champion mindsets, and Jjakji has yet to complete this vital ritual in reaching the hallowed ground that both of his elite terran brethren have reached.

Jjakji shouldn’t have trouble in his Ro32 group, but he will definitely run into trouble in the Ro16 as he’ll almost certainly be matched up with a player that will be fully capable of standing toe-to-toe with him. He’ll continue to bring entertaining builds and execute intelligent gameplay in the meantime, but he needs more time and more experience against solid opponents to grow into a scary and dominating force.

[image loading]
(T)oGsFin

In my opinion, fOrGG (Fin is his official name) is the most well-rounded terran in the GSL at this time. He has great grasp on the game mechanics, superb understanding of all matchups, and is comfortable with diverse strategies. Whereas MMA and Jjakji can control games with their smart builds, fOrGG seemingly has the raw ability to impose his will with whatever, wherever, and whenever. Watching his run through GSL Nov. Code A and his ladder games on his stream, it is hard to deny that fOrGG will eventually become the player that all of the Korean pros will fear.

On the other hand though, while fOrGG has the intelligence and impeccable mechanics ingrained in him from his Brood War days, it remains to be seen how he will cope with the constantly fluctuating GSL tournament metagame. He has proved himself in a short period of time, but the GSL is a different beast compared to the ladder, and the GSL tournament system has demolished the pride of many other ladder monsters before.

Regardless of how fOrGG performs in his group (which I’m sure he’ll make it out of), it will be vital experience and training for a future championship run. If fOrGG continues on his rapid ascent and growth as a SC2 pro, he’ll easily surpass MVP’s stellar record. If you see fOrGG streaming, watch it. You won’t regret it.

Key Players With Uphill Battles

[image loading]
(Z)EGIdrA

Let me preface this by saying I am an IdrA fan. But I don’t let my heart act as a blindfold. IdrA has jumped into waters which are a lot colder and more unforgiving than the last time he has left it, and with the high caliber of players in his group it looks unlikely that he’ll make it out.

Watching his ladder games on his stream or from his opponent’s streams ((T)Polt, (T)Bomber, and fOrGG’s), he seems almost lost in the matchup he claims he is most comfortable in. His preferred muta-ling-bling ZvT style has undergone many changes since his return to Korea, so far has been full of holes that his opponents have exploited time and time again. IdrA is still in the process of adjusting to the Korean metagame, and it is safe to say he won’t be ready by the Ro32.

Of course, I could be totally wrong in my assumptions as our information is limited, but that uncertainty doesn’t reassure me when I watch him make the same mistakes he has made since time immemorial. In a recent ladder games against Polt on Polt’s stream, he raged in game chat after throwing away several armies in a game he should have won if he played more intelligently. IdrA has to be on top of his game to survive in his group, and so far he has proved he doesn’t even have the mentality to do that.

I hope that he prove me wrong and gets out of his group, but faced ZvZ with two other great ZvZ players and ZvT with the MVP himself, IdrA has no chance to make it out. Hopefully he’ll make the best of the situation and use the experience to clear his head and give us some solid games in the future.

[image loading]
(P)oGsMC

If you want confidence in a player, look no farther than MC. MC plays a very aggressive style that complements his absolute faith in his abilities, but his faith sometimes transforms into over-confidence when he misreads his opponents and willingly walks straight into poor engagements where other protosses would have avoided.

Against (T)MVPsC on Tal’Darim Altar in the GSL Nov. Code S Ro16, he walked straight into a disadvantageous engagement thinking he had the upgrade advantage, but MVPsC had actually been keeping up with MC in upgrades, and MC got slaughtered as he charged his stretched-out forces into sC’s waiting bio-ball. Against (T)aTn.ClouD in the recent Homestory Cup 4 group stages, he almost threw away a victory in game 3 of the series on Daybreak by stubbornly charging his reinforcements down a choke towards ClouD’s bio army.

I admit that it is a stretch to claim that MC is likely to underperform as he has been on a tear lately, but while his solid control and aggressive play has allowed him to walk over average opponents before, SuperNoVa (68.75% wins vs protoss) and fOrGG (4-0 vs protoss in the GSL) are anything but average against protoss. SuperNoVa and fOrGG will take care to avoid making mistakes, and I don’t think MC will advance far if he lets his confidence get the better of him.

The Unluckiest Player in the GSL

[image loading]
(Z)SlayerS_YugiOh

This guy can never catch a break. He spent eternity in the barrens of Code A before finally sneaking into GSL Nov. Code S, only to be called out by his teammate MMA and getting knocked back down into Code A. He then got his shit together and showed amazing improvement going undefeated in his GSL Season 1 Up-Down group, but is now facing the TvZ master MMA yet again in his group.

YugiOh also has to deal with (T)FXOGuMiho’s strong TvZ (69.70% win rate versus zergs) and (Z)Liquid’Zenio’s ZvZ (72.73% win rate versus zergs). YugiOh has a solid chance against Zenio if he maintains the level of play he showed us versus STJuly and oGsLuvsic, but MMA and GuMiho are two terran juggernauts he won’t be able to take down. Count on YugiOh dropping back into Code A again, but since he’s been improving I’m fairly certain we’ll see him again soon.


Group Predictions


Group A
+ Show Spoiler +

(T)NSHoSeo_Jjakji and (T)SlayerS_Boxer to advance. Jjakji shouldn’t have too much trouble in his group, so second place will most likely fall between (T)SlayerS_GanZi and Boxer as (Z)Sen is fighting in his weakest matchup against accomplished TvZ players. Boxer has been almost literally on fire in his strongest matchup lately, so I’ll give the nod to Boxer if he goes up against his teammate GanZi. Boxer fighting!!!


Group B
+ Show Spoiler +

(T)Fin (fOrGG) and (T)SuperNoVa to advance. The King of Kong tournament has shown that Leenock’s TvZ play is somewhat unstable currently, and (P)oGsMC has great chances to take a series off of Leenock. If MC can reign in his aggression and play smart, he can challenge fOrGG and SuperNovA, but the statistics say otherwise. SuperNovA has been looking strong lately too, so I’m going to bet on him this time around.


Group C
+ Show Spoiler +

(T)IMMVP and (Z)IMNestea to advance. (Z)FXOLucky has a shot to get out of the group, but I don’t think anyone will expect him to do well versus Nestea.


Group D
+ Show Spoiler +

(Z)ST_Curious and (T)ST_Bomber to advance. Curious couldn’t have asked for a better group, and (P)FXOz and (P)oGsInCa will be hard pressed to challenge Curious in PvZ. Bomber is the wild card in my opinion as he hasn’t proved he can be consistent in tournaments, but his 80.77% win rate versus protoss (!) speaks otherwise in a group with two other protosses. There’s a solid argument for picking Oz, but even with his strong run in the GSL Nov. season the odds are stacked too heavily against him since Curious has proven his superiority in the matchup and Bomber might be too much for him.


Group E
+ Show Spoiler +

(T)SlayerS_MMA and (T)FXOGuMiho to advance. Both MMA and GuMiho are beastly versus zergs, and are very solid well-rounded players. It is not likely (Z)SlayerS_YugiOh and (Z)Liquid’Zenio will be able to take down such dominant TvZ players, so count on them getting knocked back into Code A


Group F
+ Show Spoiler +

(Z)MVPDongRaeGu and (T)MVPsC to advance. If sC has recovered from his illness enough to practice, he should have very little trouble versus (P)MVPGenius or (P)EGJYP. If sC isn’t able to play at 100%, who will get second place in the group will be interesting to watch as both Genius and JYP aren’t sure bets. Genius has been resurging lately, tearing his way through the Up-Downs, but it remains to be seen if he carry his momentum into Code S. DongRaeGu showed us in the King of Kong tournament that he’s on form currently, so he shouldn’t have trouble in this group.


Group G
+ Show Spoiler +

(T)MarineKingPrime and (T)TSLaLive to advance. This is another group in which anything can happen, as (P)SlayerS_Brown hasn’t had much time in the limelight, and both aLive and (T)IMHappy have fairly mediocre results in TvT.

Brown has been the new SlayerS player to watch, slaying (Z)IMLosira and (T)SlayerS_Ryung with solid macro-oriented play, but both MarineKing and aLive have faced down more accomplished protosses before. I think aLive is going to make it out over Happy, as even though Happy has looked very strong in the past two GSL seasons, he hasn’t proved that he has found his tempo in TvT. So I’m going to err on the side of caution and go with the more experienced aLive.


Group H
+ Show Spoiler +

(T)oGsNaDa and (P)ST_Parting to advance. This is the group that’s hardest to call, and probably the most volatile group. There’s very little information about Parting, but apparently he’s pretty good as he took down Jjakji in the Korean SC2 League Daily #17 this past December. Parting also looked good in the GSL Nov. Code A, but he’ll be facing players that are currently stronger than the players he beat his Code A run.

(P)SlayerS_Puzzle has always been somewhat inconsistent, despite his creative play, and it’s hard to tell which side of Puzzle will show up to play in the group. The old Code S veterans NaDa and (T)MVPKeenhave gotten their acts together and crushed through Code A back into Code S, and both are strong against protosses. All of that said, nobody in the group has an substantial advantage over each other. NaDa and Parting had to go through tougher opponents to get here, so I’m inclined to pick them to get out of the Ro32.


****
aderum
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Sweden1459 Posts
January 08 2012 23:19 GMT
#2
Wow really good! It was a very good read. I dont agree with you about MC, but that might just be my fanboyism that tells me he will have no problem. But I think he have looked so good at homestory, then again maybe it is because its mostly foreigners.

Anyhoo, thanks for the write up =)
Crazy people dont sit around and wonder if they are insane
Imperium11
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States279 Posts
January 08 2012 23:21 GMT
#3
Well written and succinct, thank you, though I have greatly differing predictions.
Severus_
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
759 Posts
January 08 2012 23:32 GMT
#4
Absolute beast blog. I think ForGG will crush everybody with timing attacks and win the tournament. His execution and mechanics and beeing on stage vs likes of the dong,Flash will help him also. The thing is nobody is safe from cheeses not even MVP look how he lost vs MMA recently in the Blizzard cup. If someone beats ForGG i think it will be another timing attacker like MMA or maybe some of the protosses.
jkc
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States83 Posts
January 09 2012 00:02 GMT
#5
On January 09 2012 08:21 Imperium11 wrote:
Well written and succinct, thank you, though I have greatly differing predictions.


Thanks for the feedback! Honestly anything can happen, as there are so many players at the same skill level now, so I'm sure there's going to be some surprises this season.

On January 09 2012 08:32 Severus_ wrote:
Absolute beast blog. I think ForGG will crush everybody with timing attacks and win the tournament. His execution and mechanics and beeing on stage vs likes of the dong,Flash will help him also. The thing is nobody is safe from cheeses not even MVP look how he lost vs MMA recently in the Blizzard cup. If someone beats ForGG i think it will be another timing attacker like MMA or maybe some of the protosses.


fOrGG will do very well in his group, as his weakest matchup is against zergs, and there's no zergs in the group. He said recently in an interview that he isn't fully comfortable yet executing the timings that made him famous in BW, but there's no doubt he's going to bust out some powerful builds this season. If he runs up against a smart terran like Jjakji or a good zerg later on in the season though, I'm sure he's going to run into a bit of trouble.
Deleted User 183001
Profile Joined May 2011
2939 Posts
January 09 2012 00:03 GMT
#6
stroGG will kick ass in his group. I hope he and MC advance from the Ro32.
Isken
Profile Joined November 2010
Korea (South)1131 Posts
January 09 2012 00:24 GMT
#7
tough group for idra, I fear you are right, OP
Seeker *
Profile Blog Joined April 2005
Where dat snitch at?37023 Posts
January 09 2012 00:39 GMT
#8
I love your previews jkc. They're always so well done
ModeratorPeople ask me, "Seeker, what are you seeking?" My answer? "Sleep, damn it! Always sleep!"
TL+ Member
Bippzy
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States1466 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-01-09 00:47:50
January 09 2012 00:47 GMT
#9
Ahh how I giggle about how romantically you talk about ForGG

He has great grasp on the game mechanics, superb understanding of all matchups, and is comfortable with diverse strategies.


I could rewrite that sentence as " He is an ex broodwar player, knows the technicalities of the other races that he can exploit, and is comfortable being super aggressive." lololol

fOrGG seemingly has the raw ability to impose his will with whatever, wherever, and whenever.

Really aggressive/technical builds. If they work, you look brilliant. If they don't, you look stupid. So far fOrGG has only looked brilliant, but I have full confidence code S isn't that full of nimwits.

Other than that, I qualify you as a not that bad previewer....just missing some of the more hypey-er stories.
LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK
Mawi
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden4365 Posts
January 09 2012 01:41 GMT
#10
sick writeup youre predictions are really good kinda what i was thinking
IdrA is soo gonna have to do some sick thing to advance that group is deadly
Forever Mirin Zyzz Son of Zeus Brother of Hercules Father of the Aesthetics
kommunalka
Profile Joined February 2011
United States550 Posts
January 09 2012 01:42 GMT
#11
Pretty stacked GSL lineup... can't wait to see the results..... some exciting rising stars in the midst as well as the much anticipated return of IdrA.
rG
berserkboar
Profile Joined June 2011
114 Posts
January 09 2012 01:45 GMT
#12
dislike your write up and word usage sorry but good effort and predictions
:(
Bagration
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States18282 Posts
January 09 2012 01:46 GMT
#13
Let's see how Fin does. Great blog.
Team Slayers, Axiom-Acer and Vile forever
acrimoneyius
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States983 Posts
January 09 2012 01:46 GMT
#14
Haha I like how you hype forGG so much :p.

only disagree with your opinion of Happy's TvT, which is a lot more stable than MarineKing's and just better than alive's.
Jedclark
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United Kingdom903 Posts
January 09 2012 01:53 GMT
#15
This was amazing. I disagree with the predictions, but nice writeup!

(Mods: spotlight)
"They make it so scrubnubs can PM me. They make it so I can't ignore scrubnubs!" - "I'm gonna show you how great I am." MKP fan since GSL Open Season 2 #hipsternerd
jkc
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States83 Posts
January 09 2012 02:10 GMT
#16
On January 09 2012 09:47 Bippzy wrote:
Ahh how I giggle about how romantically you talk about ForGG

Show nested quote +
He has great grasp on the game mechanics, superb understanding of all matchups, and is comfortable with diverse strategies.


I could rewrite that sentence as " He is an ex broodwar player, knows the technicalities of the other races that he can exploit, and is comfortable being super aggressive." lololol

Show nested quote +
fOrGG seemingly has the raw ability to impose his will with whatever, wherever, and whenever.

Really aggressive/technical builds. If they work, you look brilliant. If they don't, you look stupid. So far fOrGG has only looked brilliant, but I have full confidence code S isn't that full of nimwits.

Other than that, I qualify you as a not that bad previewer....just missing some of the more hypey-er stories.


Thanks. I secretly have pictures of fOrGG stashed in a drawer that I bring out from time to time just so I can stare at his strong, masculine jawline and broad shoulders...

Seriously though, I have never had so much fun watching someone stream before. He has taken several popular terran builds and refined them to a point where he just makes his opponents look woefully unprepared. But as you said, his aggression is a two-sided blade, and I'm really interested to see his matches against MC and Leenock.

As for not having more stories, I was playing it safe with this preview. I think i'll go all-out for the Ro16 preview once the players get back into shape after the winter GSL break.
tuho12345
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
4482 Posts
January 09 2012 02:16 GMT
#17
Pick ForGG and Nova over MC??? Are you serious lol.
silyaznfoo
Profile Joined December 2011
45 Posts
January 09 2012 04:45 GMT
#18
I'm guessing Leenock and MC advance. If ForGG doesn't win in the first 15-20 minutes, he has no game. Hopefully Leenock and MC will both recognize that.
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