EPT
So reading through blogs, I was inspired by Jalstar's MSL Prediction Thread (and spent an ungodly amount of time making my MSL predictions... oh well lazy Saturdays for the win) so I thought I'd go ahead and make the one for OSL predictions.
The Round of 16 format is round robin, with each player playing the others once. The two people with the best record move onto the round of 8. In the case of a tie, say two players both get a 2-1 record, then they play a head-to-head Bo3 tiebreaker match in order to determine who moves on.
Hmm so edited:
At first I wanted to do it like the MSL one and make it go all the way to the finals, then I learn afterward that Ro8 is random. Oops? So in order to make this not an entirely fail blog (just like 80% fail) Ro16 predictions instead ^.^
+ Show Spoiler [My predictions] +
Group A:
Flash 3:0
Kwanro 2:1
Kal 1:2
hyvaa 0:3
+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning behind Group A] +Flash is pretty much unstoppable right now, and while I could possibly see Kwanro or Kal taking the game from him, that's a small possibility. Sorry Kal, but I do get the feeling that you're going to get Kwanrolled... in a Bo1 game there's no point for Kwanro to play conservatively, so I expect him to all-in Kal to death. hyvaa, of these four (who Flash adamantly wanted in this group haha) is just going to give wins away.
Group B:
Stork 3:0
Hwasin 2:1
Movie 1:2
BaBy 0:3
+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning behind Group B] +
Group C:
Calm 2:1
ZerO 2:1
fantasy 1:2
Pure 1:2
Calm > ZerO in tiebreaker Bo3
+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning behind Group C] +Calm will start off with a pretty easy win, using the power of "imba" that resides in ZvP to walk over Pure's mediocre PvZ. fantasy and ZerO are both good at their respective match ups, and are 1-1 head-to-head, with fantasy having the recent win. In recent matches, ZerO is 7-3 in his last 10 ZvTs while fantasy is 6-4 in his last 10 TvZs. Just because I can, I'll give the win to ZerO since I really can't decide. fantasy versus Pure should be a pretty good match, since Pure and fantasy are both at about 63% winrate for that match up, and fantasy having a bare lead in the head-to-head, being up 3-2. In this situation though, I'll give Pure the win simply for the hell of it. However, Pure's ZvP will knock him out of this OSL.: ZerO will take him out with his sexy ZvP to put Pure at 1:2, and Calm will take out ZerO in the ZvZ. But when it comes time for Calm to face fantasy, Clam will emerge and fantasy will take the win. This puts Calm and ZerO at 2-1 respectively, so both will advance, but the tiebreaker will determine who is to be the #1 seed for the group and who is to be the #2, and once again Calm will defeat ZerO in the Bo3 ZvZ that ensues. Oh, and I'm not too sure about how that would work, but if it comes down to Calm having beaten ZerO to obtain his 2-1, then he'd be #1 seed anyway right?
Group D:
fOrGG 3:0
go.go 2:1
Shine 1:2
EffOrt 0:3
+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning behind Group D] +fOrGG is damn good at TvZ, at a 68.13%. However, EffOrt the alien is also good at ZvT, with a 63.54% winrate. However, EffOrt has lost his last 8 ZvTs... so fOrGG starts off with an easy win. When it comes time, go.go with his 63.83% TvZ winrate will also beat a slumping EffOrt. The only game I see EffOrt winning would be his ZvZ against Shine, but Shine has a recent Win over EffOrt, a better recent ZvZ record, and a 2-0 head-to-head. Sadly, I see EffOrt going home in his spaceship with an 0-3 record. The TvT between go.go and fOrGG should be interesting, (fOrGG has won the Only head-to-head they've placed) though go.go has 7 out of 10 of his last TvTs, with the wins coming from lesser Terrans such as Notice (who still knocked him out of the MST) and RuBy, so I'll give this to fOrGG. fOrGG and go.go will also take both take out Shine, giving fOrGG a 3-0 pass to the Ro8 and a 2-1 ticket for go.go.
Flash 3:0Kwanro 2:1Kal 1:2hyvaa 0:3+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning behind Group A] +
Flash is pretty much unstoppable right now, and while I could possibly see Kwanro or Kal taking the game from him, that's a small possibility. Sorry Kal, but I do get the feeling that you're going to get Kwanrolled... in a Bo1 game there's no point for Kwanro to play conservatively, so I expect him to all-in Kal to death. hyvaa, of these four (who Flash adamantly wanted in this group haha) is just going to give wins away.Group B:
Stork 3:0Hwasin 2:1Movie 1:2BaBy 0:3+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning behind Group B] +
Even with all of the hype about BaBy's recent TvZ, unfortunately for him there isn't a single zerg in this group. That being said, BaBy's TvP and TvT are both subpar, being 24-28 (46.15%) and 25-28 (47.17%) respectively. Compare this to Stork's ~65% PvT winrate, and BaBy's got one loss right off the bat. For Movie versus Hwasin, with both their respective match ups being under 50%, I'm not expecting any too-stellar matches, and they've never gone head to head either. To further the confusion, both Hwasin and Movie have recently not been doing so hot. However, as long as Hwasin remembers to siege his tanks, I think he'll take this one over Movie. Stork will also take a win over Movie in their PvP: Stork is both statistically much better at the match up and also is 2-0 over Movie. To round out this round robin, both Movie and Hwasin will win over BaBy on the grounds that BaBy's TvP and TvT are both, again, terrible.
BaBy's recent TvZ, unfortunately for him there isn't a single zerg in this group. That being said, BaBy's TvP and TvT are both subpar, being 24-28 (46.15%) and 25-28 (47.17%) respectively. Compare this to Stork's ~65% PvT winrate, and BaBy's got one loss right off the bat. For Movie versus Hwasin, with both their respective match ups being under 50%, I'm not expecting any too-stellar matches, and they've never gone head to head either. To further the confusion, both Hwasin and Movie have recently not been doing so hot. However, as long as Hwasin remembers to siege his tanks, I think he'll take this one over Movie. Stork will also take a win over Movie in their PvP: Stork is both statistically much better at the match up and also is 2-0 over Movie. To round out this round robin, both Movie and Hwasin will win over BaBy on the grounds that BaBy's TvP and TvT are both, again, terrible.Group C:
Calm 2:1ZerO 2:1fantasy 1:2Pure 1:2Calm > ZerO in tiebreaker Bo3+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning behind Group C] +
Calm will start off with a pretty easy win, using the power of "imba" that resides in ZvP to walk over Pure's mediocre PvZ. fantasy and ZerO are both good at their respective match ups, and are 1-1 head-to-head, with fantasy having the recent win. In recent matches, ZerO is 7-3 in his last 10 ZvTs while fantasy is 6-4 in his last 10 TvZs. Just because I can, I'll give the win to ZerO since I really can't decide. fantasy versus Pure should be a pretty good match, since Pure and fantasy are both at about 63% winrate for that match up, and fantasy having a bare lead in the head-to-head, being up 3-2. In this situation though, I'll give Pure the win simply for the hell of it. However, Pure's ZvP will knock him out of this OSL.: ZerO will take him out with his sexy ZvP to put Pure at 1:2, and Calm will take out ZerO in the ZvZ. But when it comes time for Calm to face fantasy, Clam will emerge and fantasy will take the win. This puts Calm and ZerO at 2-1 respectively, so both will advance, but the tiebreaker will determine who is to be the #1 seed for the group and who is to be the #2, and once again Calm will defeat ZerO in the Bo3 ZvZ that ensues. Oh, and I'm not too sure about how that would work, but if it comes down to Calm having beaten ZerO to obtain his 2-1, then he'd be #1 seed anyway right?Group D:
fOrGG 3:0go.go 2:1Shine 1:2EffOrt 0:3+ Show Spoiler [Reasoning behind Group D] +
fOrGG is damn good at TvZ, at a 68.13%. However, EffOrt the alien is also good at ZvT, with a 63.54% winrate. However, EffOrt has lost his last 8 ZvTs... so fOrGG starts off with an easy win. When it comes time, go.go with his 63.83% TvZ winrate will also beat a slumping EffOrt. The only game I see EffOrt winning would be his ZvZ against Shine, but Shine has a recent Win over EffOrt, a better recent ZvZ record, and a 2-0 head-to-head. Sadly, I see EffOrt going home in his spaceship with an 0-3 record. The TvT between go.go and fOrGG should be interesting, (fOrGG has won the Only head-to-head they've placed) though go.go has 7 out of 10 of his last TvTs, with the wins coming from lesser Terrans such as Notice (who still knocked him out of the MST) and RuBy, so I'll give this to fOrGG. fOrGG and go.go will also take both take out Shine, giving fOrGG a 3-0 pass to the Ro8 and a 2-1 ticket for go.go.
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