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Hi guys,
I thought I would have some clues about what I am going to do, and by my speculation, It would change my life/career quite significantly.
I have worked for an institute of a ministry for quite some time and I think I need to further my study on economics. It is somehow a must in my country and I myself wanna pursue this career path too by studying the phd on economics.
I have been offered to become PHD student in another institute in MOnash university like a month ago. Actually I am gonna be there working with them to develop the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Vietnam. as far as I know Monash university is one the best uni in the world when it comes to CGE model and I believe that It would be the right choice for me if CGE modelling is a good thing to work on.
However, i have heard by many economists that CGE modelling is something of the past. In other words, its prime of application was back in the 70s. Though It has been used sometimes not only in Australia(I heard that it is very popular in Australia), but also in the US, I personally dont think its very common nowadays. I dont know the detailed drawbacks of this tool but from waht I have read, the problems with this tool are that they live with so many unrealistic assumptions. I have worked on econometric stuff for like 7 years and now changing into this field which is pretty much conflicting with econometrics fundamentals would probably negate all of my experiences. Ofcourse, I know that econometric experience would be useful when I work on CGE model as well but not to the extent that I have expected
SO I wanna ask you guys, if you ever read something about CGE model, or if you have ever worked on econometric, is it the right choice to switch to another field for me?
have never imagined that I have fallen into the zone of "dont know what to do" XD
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On January 26 2010 13:24 killanator wrote:
An hero
-_- Do "4chan" and "teamliquid" look similar at all?
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Spenguin
Australia3316 Posts
On January 26 2010 13:24 killanator wrote:
An hero
Really?
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I personally find econometrics to be quite impossible. That being said:
CGE is generally used for a more macro-based approach to things, and it is used primarily for regions where they don't have solid evidence. Econometrics relies more on evidence gathered. So in a way I suppose they are both similar in purpose, but Econometrics is far more flexible per se. That being said, if you're sick of econometrics, go into CGE, or maybe another field. Personally I'm more interested in game theory, but that's just me.
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United States4796 Posts
I can't say I know a lot about CGE modeling but I can offer advice saying that Monash is the right way to go.  Good luck.
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I am a Ph.D. student in economics who has had experience in CGE work.
From my point of view, there are 2 kinds of CGE work:
1) Detailed models that attempt to be "complete" representations.
An example of this is the models that the CBO uses to evaluate the cost of congressional policy such as the cost of health care reform.
2) Simpler CGE models that are theoretical and serve to illustrate a single point. They don't even attempt to model reality and instead focus on a few dynamic drivers, such as the impact of demographics on X or the impact of a growing deficit on Y.
I have worked on both types of models through the course of a job in economics and now during my graduate work.
I think type-1 CGE models are out of favor right now, as you have said. Although these models have tremendous amounts of data behind them and attempt to model all aspects of the economy, there is always something missing. So people can easily criticize some aspect of the model, some hole in the data, or some incomplete interaction.
In addition, these models tend to suffer from a lack of transparency, as what tends to drive a result is often unclear.
But they are nonetheless the best tool available for asking a question such as: "What are the costs of the House bill on health care reform?" So policy places such as the CGO, thinktanks, environmental organizations, etc. tend to still use these.
Research institutions still use type-2 CGE models. They are simple enough and have enough theoretical transparency that people still think they are useful in a research setting.
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On January 26 2010 13:25 huameng wrote:-_- Do "4chan" and "teamliquid" look similar at all?
now it does 
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On January 26 2010 13:44 Random_0 wrote:
I am a Ph.D. student in economics who has had experience in CGE work.
From my point of view, there are 2 kinds of CGE work:
1) Detailed models that attempt to be "complete" representations.
An example of this is the models that the CBO uses to evaluate the cost of congressional policy such as the cost of health care reform.
2) Simpler CGE models that are theoretical and serve to illustrate a single point. They don't even attempt to model reality and instead focus on a few dynamic drivers, such as the impact of demographics on X or the impact of a growing deficit on Y.
I have worked on both types of models through the course of a job in economics and now during my graduate work.
I think type-1 CGE models are out of favor right now, as you have said. Although these models have tremendous amounts of data behind them and attempt to model all aspects of the economy, there is always something missing. So people can easily criticize some aspect of the model, some hole in the data, or some incomplete interaction.
In addition, these models tend to suffer from a lack of transparency, as what tends to drive a result is often unclear.
But they are nonetheless the best tool available for asking a question such as: "What are the costs of the House bill on health care reform?" So policy places such as the CGO, thinktanks, environmental organizations, etc. tend to still use these.
Research institutions still use type-2 CGE models. They are simple enough and have enough theoretical transparency that people still think they are useful in a research setting.
Thanks, I know this modeling is very useful in answering the direction of the impact and how the mechanism of the impact (if any) is, macro-wise. I was given a course on this and after that I had the offer. During the course I also asked specific questions about its drawbacks and what you said is what I was told.
My perfect plan is to pursue phd in econometric. Not that I am not interested in econometric anymore, 6 years of work man, but instead I would have to do so many other things for the application, which I am lazy at doing. Not really an excuse but somehow this is the first time I have got an offer from a professor xD. And its not my nature to reject it without thinking about its potential.
Oh and is it possible that I can study both of them at the same time, econometric and CGE modeling or I will become too greedy? 
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Once you get into graduate school, you can study whatever you want.
I can't think of any overlap between econometrics and CGE.
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EPT
