EPT[GG] Red Army Mafia
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person935
United States13 Posts
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person935
United States13 Posts
On July 30 2009 10:02 Ace wrote: yea KP. And you've kinda summed it up: no point in trying to lower Rebel KP if it would turn the place chaotic. Won't it get chaotic anyways when other roles find mafia? Zato/coltrane's argument is starting to make some sense to me.. what am I missing? | ||
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person935
United States13 Posts
------ Some math that might be useless but I had fun: If we assume the NKVD are randomly checking people, the expected number of found mafia is a little under 3 (because 5 * (9/53 + 9/52 + 9/51)). I guess the expected number of found mafia for the "landmine" plan is 5? So for the "NKVD wait and use their 3 checks" plan to have an expected value of at least 5, they would each need to narrow down their list of suspects to 28 or fewer. ----- As long as all the NKVD use the landmine plan, I don't see why it would cause any more confusion, since they are the only people who can determine who is mafia (either by RC or having mafia contact them). In either case, the NKVD will have to come forward and say someone is mafia, right? Someone should figure out the probabilities for the mafia killing the NKVD in the "wait and check" plan, which would probably further push the numbers towards the landmine plan. This is my first game, so I don't know if it is reasonable to expect the NKVD to narrow down their suspect list to 28 (actually fewer, since I left out the probability that some of them will die) before making checks. What do y'all think? | ||
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person935
United States13 Posts
(and upon further thought, the analysis is probably not very useful since we don't know any numbers for roles.. lol, oh well) | ||
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person935
United States13 Posts
On July 30 2009 11:18 Ace wrote: Because at night Rebels have to kill. If the Rebels approach each other and say prove it by killing X there isn't enough time to bullshit. Yeah, but the Rebels wouldn't know until morning, at which point the NKVDs would be telling the group that they found a mafia. Worst case, the mafia says he found a mafia, which means we would first kill the NKVD who was accused by the mafia, then kill the mafia (instead of killing the mafia first). | ||
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person935
United States13 Posts
So in conclusion, don't lynch me. | ||
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