[SPL] The Final Five

Shinhan Proleague 2008/2009 Coverage by Riptide and Heyoka

For twelve professional Starcraft teams, this really is Last Chance Hotel. Today begins Round 5 of the 2008/2009 Shinhan Proleague, and with six playoff spots up for grabs and only eleven games apiece to do it in, if there ever was a time to seize the day, it's now. While individual leagues were responsible for the birth of the pro scene, it's also evident that the highly competitive nature of contemporary Korean Broodwar owes a lot of its development to the team leagues that created, fostered and passed on fierce rivalries. Without professional teams behind it, the game would probably have never been what it is today.

A Proleague Grand Final appearance can change the course of a team's future, and a title is a pre-requisite for any outfit that wants to leave their mark on the game. As these twelve teams head into this final round, they are no doubt beginning to feel the pressure mount. Round 5 of the Shinhan Proleague 2008/2009 will consist of 11 games for each team, with the top six making the playoffs. The playoffs themselves will be played out like this.

Quite simple, isn't it?

Now, in these few hours, as fanboys everywhere take off their team t-shirts and attempt to wash them before the next round commences, there's no doubt that the teams themselves are spending a lot of time in their practice rooms, listening to their coaches, practicing their builds, and re-evaluating their strategies. Unless they're on SK Telecom T1, that is. Last week, the outside of the SKT T1 team house probably looked a little like this.

Here's an exclusive interview that TL managed to score with team captain Doctor.K.

+ Show Spoiler [Interview] +

TL: Congratulations on a great performance in Round 4, and thank you for agreeing to be interviewed.

Doctor.K: Thanks, and no problem. Team Liquid is pretty awesome.

TL: Yeah it, isn't it? Anyway, let's get down to business. Did SKT get a chance to celebrate the three places you guys moved up in R4?

Doctor.K: Yeah, we did actually. It was supposed to be low key, you know, some pizza, a couple of 4v4 BGH games, and a few rounds of flog the zerg.

TL: Flog the zerg?

Doctor.K: Yeah, it's where we take thezerg, rumble and s2 outside and beat them with our mice and keyboards. We usually hit them a dozen times each for every game they lose. Needless to say, they normally end up quite sore.

TL: That doesn't sound very nice.

Doctor.K: No, don't worry - we only use broken accessories, so no wastage there. Best breaks keyboards all the time, and Boxer hyung's mice always stop clicking after a while.

TL: So the celebration was good, I take it?

Doctor.K: Well, so-so. We were about to turn in when a dozen cases of Hite were delivered, courtesy of Leta no doubt. A few bottles later, Coach Choi walked in with three hundred and eighty bananas, and I knew it wasn't going to end up well. I'm the captain for a reason, you see – been there, done that, got the noogies. Pretty soon, fantasy was playing 1v2 vs thezerg and s2, and Best, who was chugging a bottle every time fantasy killed a muta, then went in to DT mode.

TL: DT mode?

Doctor.K: Yes, a six pack is Best's equivalent of an Archives. Put a few in him, and he actually thinks he is a Dark Templar. Come to think of it, he actually may well be a DT. That would certainly explain the torn curtains and shredded mousepads.

TL: OK, then.

Doctor.K: Anyway, he was walking around with two empty bottles for psi blades. I deemed it dangerous, and sent him to bed. Three hours later I find him and Kim Taek Yong in the practice room, in the middle of a Best of 50 on Battle Royal. I tried to tell them that the map was out of the pool in R5, but Best was too drunk (by this time he had strapped the empty Hite bottles to his forearms), and Bisu just smiled and continued reading his daum cafe posts on the other monitor. The night went downhill from there.

Now that we're done with that little formality, let's get down to some team by team analysis. Before we begin however, it's good to remember that statistical analysis of a game this complex is difficult at best, and that all our predictions, speculation and general rhetoric is all based on how these teams have done in the last few rounds. We do not rule out the chance of an underdog going 11 – 0 and holding onto a playoff spot, but while that would be pretty cool to watch, it probably isn't going to happen. With R5 starting less than a week after the end of the last, it's safe to say that how each team performed in the previous round is a pretty good indication of how they are going to perform in the next.

Where it's at, from the Results and Standings Thread.

Hwaseung Oz
Oz is on their way to the playoffs. Riding almost solely on Jaedong's shoulders, sure, but nevertheless on their way to the playoffs. As defending Proleague champs, they certainly proved their worthiness by dominating all four rounds so far, and look poised to cruise comfortably into the playoffs. Although their #1 spot will definitely be contested by SKT, even if they are overtaken there's little chance of them dropping more than a notch or two.

There are of course those who will like to point out that Lee Jaedong is in a slump. Even given that he is, however, there is no denying that even a sub optimal Legend Killer still stands a good head and shoulders above everyone with perhaps the notable exception of Bisu. But more on that later. Despite losing five and winning only six in R4, Oz sits comfortably at 27 - 15 thanks to stellar performances in rounds 2 and 3. Though followed closely by SKT, Khan and CJ, it will truly take a disaster to put Hwaseung out of the playoffs. With 11 games left, they just need to win a measly 4 to bag themselves a playoff spot, and with The Tyrant at the helm, it's difficult to imagine them doing otherwise.

Oz likes Jaedong because, because, because, because, because.
Because of the wonderful things he does (with mutas, and hydras, and lings, and defilers).

However, if there's one problem with an entire team riding on the wins of a single player, it's this – fatigue. Despite Lomo and Backho trying their best, they really are not giving the Zerg the support he needs, and slowly, over the last few rounds of Proleague, Jaedong has become a workhorse akin to the likes of what Nada once was. Playing anything and everything, he has singlehandedly made sure that the Oz banner flies high. Therefore, the day he begins to crumble, is the day Oz begins to fall.

SKT Telecom T1
SKT T1 has played well this season. In fact, they have played alarmingly well. After a less than spectacular 2007, it's as though they shook themselves, dusted their gosu playbooks, and came back with a vengeance. Second runner up in the 2008 Proleague, they no doubt went into the current season with high hopes, and despite a lackluster Round 1, recovered well to go 8 - 3, 7 - 4, 8 - 3 in rounds 2 - 4 respectively.

They now sit in a cosy number two spot, and like Oz, are all but assured of a playoff spot. With Bisu, Best and Fantasy aboard, T1 boasts what is arguably one of the most solid lineups in Proleague today, and will be a definite favourite to bridge the two game gap and take the coveted #1 position which Oz holds at the moment. Needless to say, Bisu, the one man wrecking crew, will certainly be an integral part of any take down attempt. Going an unbelievable 9 – 2 in R4, Bisu is definitely ready to take SKT T1 to the coveted #1 spot, and thereby get them seeded directly into the Grand Finals. Sitting at just two games behind Oz, and with a 8-3 R4 record when compared with Hwaseung's 6-5, the Protoss powerhouse could easily lead them to #1 in the next eleven games.

Samsung Khan
Defending champions, Samsung Khan have been near the pinnacle of Proleague for a good three seasons now. Sporting an impressive line up, and favouring a strong tactical approach to choosing matchups, embodied well in games like Frozean sniping Jaedong in the SPL 2007 finals, Coach January is well equipped to bridge the 3 game gap they have with Oz, and take #1 as they go into the playoffs. Of course, getting to #1 is probably not a big priority for a team this experienced.

With veterans like Stork and firebathero, and a strong younger contingent including the likes of Jangbi, Khan will be looking at making the playoffs, and then working their way through, one game at a time. Although the Khan in seasons past would have no doubt gone for #1 from the get go, their 5-6, 6-5 runs in R3 and R4 probably did their confidence no favours, a fact that has been confirmed by their performance in recent games. Also, being tied for wins with a CJ and Sparkyz led by Effort and Leta respectively no doubt has them worried about their playoff spot as well.

CJ Entus
For many a season, CJ sported one of the best all round Proleague lineups. From nearly taking the crown from Oz in 2007, the team fell hard and fast and even missed a podium place in Proleague 2008. Now, led by Effort (8-2), Kwanro (4-1) and SkyHigh (5-4), they are all but ready to go for the title once again.

Effort performed well this round, and along with Kwanro, seems to complete the Zerg arsenal required by CJ. Of course, the removal of Battle Royal in R5 is a real blow to these two, especially since both players boast above 60% averages in the ZvZ matchup which the map heavily favoured. On another front, SkyHigh, the new Terran on the block, blazed through the Winner's League final with a spectacular all-kill that included Jaedong himself. With a struggling Much (1-3) however, the team has been forced to rely on Movie, a Protoss who hasn't done that great himself in R4.

Having said that, CJ is definitely a favourite for the playoffs, and should have no problem holding off a struggling STX, Stars and KTF to hold on to a 4+ position on the standings table. Sparkyz, of course, tied for points with them, could very well pose a threat to the less than optimal Entus outfit.

Hite Sparkyz
Runners up in 2008, the Sparkyz have played well this season as well, and are all but assured a playoff spot. Despite a less than stellar performance by Yellow[ArnC], the team has pulled through, with Horang2 in particular going a decent 6 – 3 in Round 4. As far as Sparkyz are concerned, they probably just want to make the playoffs, and in reality they should do just fine. STX, their closest contenders, are three games down, and are unlikely to close that gap in the weeks to come. Sparkyz, on the other hand, will definitely be looking at moving up against Khan and CJ, and securing a #3 or #2 spot, even though the runner up position may be a little out of their league at the moment.

Of course, the team has the same weakness that Oz does in that it relies on one player to do most of the heavy lifting. In this case, Leta is the all purpose power tool, and with the team riding on his wins, there's a good chance that a loss here and there for the streaking Terran may really throw them off balance. Of course, the team will find some consolation in Leta going 10 – 4 in round four, and will be hoping that his form will continue into R5 and the playoffs.

STX/Stars/KTF/MBC
Going, 23-21, 22-22, 21-23 and 21-23 respectively, these four stragglers of Proleague 2008/2009 are locked in a race for playoff spot number six. While it is technically possible for one of them to oust a flailing Samsung Khan and get a #5 spot as well, it's unlikely to happen, even given Khan's current form.

STX, Stars and KTF are all 4 – 7 in R4, and MBC too are not far behind at 5-6. While a STX lead by Calm could definitely hold off the other contenders and bag the playoff spot, one must remember that even with a failing Luxury and overworked Flash, KTF is still very much in the game. Woongjin too have made their mark this season in the lower part of the ladder, with Zero, the Zerg powerhouse going 6-6, the same as Flash. MBC, though technically in contention for a playoff spot, will find it difficult going. Though Jaehoon and Light, at 5-5 and 5-4 respectively have managed to salvage a little bit of respect for HERO, they will need nothing short of a major upset from another contender to make it anywhere near spot number six.

FOX/ACE/eStro
While both ACE and eStro have a better R4 record (5-6) than STX, Stars and KTF, the game deficit they have to make up in order to be in striking range of a playoff spot is just too much. ACE, if it wasn't already clear, are just not going to make it this year, since with even a 11-0 record in R5 they will still only be at 19 wins. With some good performances by Casy, Oversky and Gorush though, the team may be looking at consolidating their skills during the off season and coming back for a better in 2009/2010.

eStro on the other hand, at 17-27, can still technically make a playoff spot. Mathematics aside, however, it is unlikely that Upmagic or hyvaa can take them any further than #9 or #10. Fox suffered a similar fate, and were failed badly by their Terran trio in R4, with Nada, Mind and Baby having a collective record of 2 – 8. While Pure, Shine and Roro certainly tried their best, and will continue to do so as they look for a playoff spot, their 18-26 overall record tells us that Wemade is not going anywhere this season.

Top Gun
Of course, as the teams themselves fight each other to be in the top six at the end of this round, and thereby make the playoffs, the league's top players are also inadvertently fighting each other for the coveted role of Top Gun. Let's take a look at contenders for the most number of wins in Proleague 2008/2009.

It's a little known fact that the famous Korean clenched fist gun-ho pose so popular in post-game photo sessions was actually pioneered by this ardent Protoss player.

With 44 wins apiece, and a team that is relying on them both to perform well in R5, Lee Jaedong and Kim Taek Yong are the two major contenders for Top Gun. Although Leta is behind by a handful of games, and with the weight he carries for Sparkyz indeed has the potential to overtake one or both of them, it's unlikely that he will be able to do so in just 11 matches.

A factor that will definitely play in Jaedong's favour, of course, is that he is basically guaranteed game time in all 11 matches, while Bisu may lose a seat or two to a SKT lineup that is very strong in itself. Given that he gets to play all 11 as well, however, Bisu is definitely the favourite for Top Gun at the end of R5. Apart from edging Jaedong in R4 by having one less loss with the same number of wins, the Protoss is also playing significantly better than his Zerg counterpart, and will very likely dispatch anyone he faces in R5 with ease. While his recent embarrassing loss to Violet should be taken into account, Jaedong's Proleague follies as of late have been more numerous, and include losses to the likes of Movie and hyvaa, all of which indicate an under performing, and as mentioned before, a perhaps over burdened Oz flagship.

Hello Computer
With the final round here, let's also not forget to do some calculations. After a plethora of calculations, many pots of coffee, and countless hours of youtube distractions, we are proud to present our analysis of playoff hopefuls.

The aftermath of R4.

This is a condensed chart of standings post-Round 4 (more detailed stats including race breakdown by team can be found in the main R&S thread). The R5 Predicted column gives a number for how many games each team can expect to win, based on past match performance. The accuracy of calculations will improve over the course of this round, but for now, this is what your friendly neighbourhood news team thinks is gonna happen.

Heyoka keenly followed Proleague to bring you these detailed statistics.

Using an advanced algorithm originally developed aboard the USS Enterprise, we can predict that the number of wins needed to make the playoffs is around 29. We say around 29, of course, because Proleague is not governed solely by logic, Captain. Anyway, with that knowledge we can then predict how likely it is that each team will hit the required threshold. Based on their record this season, Oz is close to being 100% sure of a playoff spot, and SKT is very near that. A detailed chart based on this data is in the works for next week's SPL update, but for now, let the speculation flow!

Fun Stats!
Lies, damned lies, and statistics. We aim to specialise in at least two of these by the time this season is over, and in pursuit of this goal have come up with some side servings for you statistics nerds out there.

The distribution of set length in R4 was markedly different from the way it was for rounds 1 and 2. In rounds 1 and 2 the distribution looked very similar, and taking that as normal we did a compare and contrast and arrived at the following conclusions.

Teams had waaay to much time on their hands during R1 and R2.

This is very similar to what you expect from anything involving a best of 5 competition. The number going to 5 games is a little high, but well within expected range. This feature can also perhaps be explained by the fact that teams often field weaker players against worse teams, a phenomenon we will look at in the weeks to come.

In R4, players tried to finish matches quickly so they could go home and play Sudden Attack.

As you can see, this is an almost completely even distribution. In fact, it is interesting to note that in this last round, there were more 3-0 matches than ace games. As the playoffs draw nearer, it is possible that coaches want to experiment less, and win more in less time, and with less headaches.

Next, we made up a graph that details the win percentages of each team broken down by the length of matches they played.

97.1% fanboys will nerd rage about these statistics.

In future, by comparing this distribution to past rounds we will be able to make more concrete statements about each team's strengths and strategies. In theory you would expect that the teams on the top and bottom have short sets in general, while having teams in the middle go ace more often. Of course, theories don't always hold true, a fact that we will examine more closely in future updates.

Individual Stats
If you follow Fantasy Proleague closely you might have also noticed some amusing individual statistics. OversKy is playing perhaps the best he ever has, going 6-2 and netting nearly 1/3 of ACE's total wins. Thezerg went 6-2 as well, and the SKT zerg lineup looks reasonable for the first time in ages. We'd like to comment about how this round has been kind to all zergs, but then realised that fan favorite Luxury ended up with a disastrous 1-8 record. Finally, we're going to wrap up this section with a nod to KTF's mantoss replacement, Violet, who finished round 4 undefeated at 6-0.

The Final Five
With just eleven games left, and only six positions open on the road to the most prestigious team title in eSports, these next few weeks are going to be taxing for players and fans alike. Of course, the Final Five have been chosen, and there's little that's going to shake them.

The five lights of the apocalypse rising struggling towards the light, the sins revealed only to those who enter the temple, only to the chosen one.

Hwaseung Oz
SKT T1
CJ Entus
Hite Sparkyz
Samsung Khan

Who then, will be the chosen one? STX? Stars? KTF? MBC? With eleven games left, and everything on the line, one of these teams is going to have to step up, and take what is rightfully theirs. What's clear, however, is that these next eleven games are going to change teams, players and careers, for it is in situations like these, with everything on the line, that the masters of this art truly begin to shine. Here's to seven weeks of fierce micro, intense mind games, and showdowns that we will remember and talk about for years to come!

[SPL] The Final Five

[SPL] The Final Five

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