EPTOn March 13 2008 14:03 Dr.Dragoon wrote:
I'm baaaack. Hide your children.
I'm baaaack. Hide your children.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
TL Mafia 2 [GG]
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! | ||
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
And ya, I signed up by pming Chiui earlier. Just kidding goon. No hate. Just <3. | ||
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
On March 13 2008 19:50 Empyrean wrote: Oh boy. This is exciting :D Town looks like it has a much higher chance to win this game. I'm still working on the game one write-up. It took me 50 minutes to write 1498 words, and it only analyzes up to immediately after the mayoral election so far. I'm looking forward to reading it O_O. How much do you wanna bet chuiu will make fusionsdf mafia just fuck with us? | ||
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
On March 14 2008 05:12 BluzMan wrote: A quick suggestion: Since I've already played mafia on a forum that excels at this (20+ seasons), it's really better to make a separate thread for each day and each voting. Close treads after day/voting ends, it's in fact easier to find them in the closed forum than in general, besides, no mess ups. Quoted for emphasis. This is a great idea. | ||
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
On March 14 2008 14:38 qrs wrote: OK, so far fusion, caller, and Empyrean have all said that they will run for mayor no matter what. That means that if they end up mafioso, the Mafia practically has to put them up for election, otherwise it will be clear that they are Mafia (why else wouldn't they run). IOW, if the Mafia puts up, say, two candidates, and any of these three are in the Mafia, he will be one of the two candidates. Something to keep in mind. That doesn't make any logical sense. How would withdrawing their candidacy in any way make them look like scum? | ||
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
Oh Oh, we're electing a mayor. I'll vote later. | ||
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
From there a team can be developed, people with roles should PM the mayor, and he sends detectives to investigate them to be sure. Only mafia would fake roles, so investigating them serves as hard proof of their legit role, or will reveal a mafia faking a role. Ghar, your plan is seriously flawed. I don't think you've thought this through, which is why I'm going to encourage people not to vote for you. If there was a contest over best election poster however, you'd win by a landslide. There are four detectives. They can use their role finding abilities twice in the game, and once a day. However, noone knows who the detectives are. A mafia mayor could have a fellow mobster, even two, pretend to be detectives and report that you're the mayor. You could have the detectives detect the detectives, but that'd cause the same problem, and the real detectives would be using their abilities in vain. So it's not that easy, but at least it's better than what FS did. edit: For chrissake, if you're going to run for mayor, do more than a half-assed job. Can't be worse than fakesteve doesn't cut it. | ||
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
I'm sure you didn't read his entire post, because the strategy makes a lot of sense EVEN when the Mayor is Mafia because it forces the Mayor to do some work that benefits the Town. I don't understand. If the mayor is mafia, and he convinces the real detectives to find out people's roles for him, then it's pretty much game over. If he's not mafia, he can't absolutely trust the detectives, because the mafia could be faking 4 detectives and reporting mob members as having the roles. BTW Ghar, I didn't mean you were half-assing it. I mean, well, it's clear the liquidians I'm talking about. | ||
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
Also, I feel like a lot of people aren't giving the mayoral election a lot of thought. A HUGE amount of the detective work rests on the mayor's shoulders. Voting for somebody because they mass PMed you is a bad idea. If you're running for mayor on those grounds, seriously, give it a break. | ||
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
1. Empyrean does not appear to have read much of the analysis from last night, including Ace's Bodyguard plan. He doesn't appear to have a good grasp of what's going on. He is basically trying to coerce us into voting for him because he may or may not be a detective. 2. Everybody may or may not be a detective. Claiming you are one at this point is ZERO reason to believe you are a detective, and not mafia. There is no hard evidence pointing in either direction. 3. Cost/Benefit analysis: I. Empyrean is a detective and we -- a. Vote him in. Great, he has protection. With Ace as the mayor (it looks like he's going to win), it means he'll be a pardoner and probably take a less minor role in leadership. I think after he colludes with Ace, he'll do a good job. b. Vote for someone else very unlikely to be mafia, i.e. Ghar or randombum. You will need several medics to keep Emp alive, because doubtless the mafia are going to devote a lot of killing power to get him out of the game. II. Empyrean is scum and we -- a. Vote him in. Ace will find out he is scum and we'll lynch him. We'll be down one pardoner, meaning one less person with bodyguard protection and no pardoning power. b. Vote for someone else. Ace will coordinate the real detectives to find out that he's scum, and the town will lynch the piano playing, twice-mafia bastard. Dieeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. How good each scenario is, in order, with how good each scenario is on a scale of 1-10, 5 being neutral. 1. Don't vote for Emp, find out he's scum, kill him, and have a list of suspects based on who voted for him, among other things. (10) 2. Vote for emp, and we get a protected detective (6, because under Ace's plan, detectives are kept secret anyway). 3. Don't vote for emp We lose a detective, but we vote in a reliable pardoner, who is probably not mafia -- in my mind either Ghar or randombum. (4) 4. The WORST is Empyrean being scum and we vote him in. (1) The best we can do by voting for emp is a 6. The worst is a 1. The best we can do by NOT voting for Emp is a 10, and the worst is a 4. Losing a detective is not a huge loss because we have a lot. A pardoner is important because it keeps the mob in check, and nullifies the bandwagon effect. There are things the mayor and pardoner can know that the town can't. This town would fare better losing a detective than a pardoner. For that reason, I strongly recommend you Do NOT vote for Empyrean. Lightning edit: I wrote "best" instead of "worst". | ||
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
First, a protected detective is NOT that valueable. Under Ace's plan, it will be made clear who the detectives are. He will be their mouthpiece, and their identities will remain secret. They can only die if they're accidentally killed off. Second, you can't really save somebody if the Mafia is determined to kill them. They can use several kill points to make sure they take out an important role. It might be viable in the beginning, when you have all 7 medics saving one person because that's the only one they know is worth saving, but it would difficult to keep him alive for long when there are more people (including innocent townies who are likely to be targetted just becaused the contribute a lot) worth saving later in the game. Finally, clues at this point are useless. I can't emphasize this enough. Let me try again. CLUES AT THIS POINT ARE USELESS. All this pointless, unsubstantiated finger pointing is annoying, QUIT IT. When a lot of them start to add up, and there's behavioral clues to add to it, then it becomes worth talking about. A lot of people were lynched last game on a whim. Let's not do that again. The clues pointing to Ghar aren't very sound at all. I don't buy them for a second, but if a lot of them started to suggest him loosely, then I'll consider it some more. In fact, I would ask that clue analysis be kept to yourself for now, because it makes you a target and it causes unneeded and unwarranted suspicions amongst townies. Although you should by all means continue analyzing, just post them ONLY when you have a strong case against someone. This and this clue might point to this person is pure shit. The town can only be hurt by this pointless finger pointing. Oh man, that's a terrible pun. ;( | ||
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
On March 19 2008 07:53 Empyrean wrote: Such cleverly disguised misdirection against me won't work. Don't use such a leading tone; you incite suspicion against yourself. Chill. I posted what I felt was reasonable. I don't know if you're real or not atm, and I didn't mean anything by that adjective. My numerical assignments were based on my subjective opinion. I only introduced it to make my point more clear. I think if you fuddle the numbers around some, you'd come up with the same conclusion, that the risk of voting for you outweight the benefits. We have 4 detectives, and not two like last game. It sucks to have to lose one, but we can deal with three. I still feel that the pardoner, because he is protected and because he can keep the town in check, is more valuable. With 130 people, he'll likely be able to pardon more than last game too. Seriously, I think your decision to reveal your role was a bad idea, regardless if you're mafia or townie. You could've become mayor by campaigning hard, adopting Ace's plan, and using your reputation from last game. It would've helped if you'd started earlier. Then, we would've had a detective mayor, and not had to go through this drama. It comes down to this: We don't know if you're detective or scum or a townie who wants the mayoral position bad. There is absolutely no more reason to believe you're any of these roles than there is to believe that I am any of these roles. This is a simple, sound, and logical fact. On the other hand, the suspicions your actions invoked seriously hurt your chances of winning. How? This is what I keep asking. We can't coordinate unless the detectives can all trust someone. They can only trust someone if they know he is towny. That means either: we waste 3/8 of the valuable yes/no questions, or the mayor reveals a bodyguard. Ace has said he does not want to reveal a bodyguard immediately, so how will he be able to coordinate the detectives? He's going to have to reveal a bodyguard then. Sacrificing somebody to make sure the mayor can be trusted is worth it. I'm not actually sure about the specifics... Ace, wanna follow up? | ||
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ahrara_
Afghanistan1715 Posts
I'm not sure if it's worth sacrificing a detective to prove the mayor's innocence, but his ability to coordinate the town without being hit seems powerful enough to warrant it. So unless this round proves me wrong, I'm going to reserve my vote unless a candidate is willing to make that sacrifice, or shows me the flaw in my logic. | ||
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