EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLIII
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
/unobs /in | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote: Quoted Player List for reference: We still have yet to hear from Onegu, fyfy, Alakaslam, and LoneMeow. There's this thing called timezones - it's now 07:43 in my current local time... Regarding to claiming, I'd like to ask that nobody claims. Day 1 claiming is generally not a great idea. On June 24 2013 13:29 Chromatically wrote: Right now, I'm looking at Xzavier and hzflank. Both have posted a bit, but neither have been scumhunting. hz's recent post makes me feel a little better, but it did only come when I specifically asked him and I don't really agree with it. That doesn't necessarily make him scum though. There are also some other small things that bother me, but I'll elaborate on those later. I'd like to note that largely with the exception of this post, you haven't done much scumhunting yourself. Would you care to elaborate on those small things for me? I do agree about Xzavier feeling scummy though. It first felt like a bit of meta case, as I remember him being very actively townie during day 1 in our last game, but reading through what he's said so far he hasn't really done any hunting so it seems objectively scummy, too. | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
I'm not all that comfortable with lynching hzflank, in fact I'd rather not. I read him as town-ish. StiMaDDict, start participating in some way. Who's your top scum read, why? fyfy, you say you'd "rather lynch someone scummier", tell me who'd that be? ##Vote: Xzavier | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
On June 25 2013 23:11 Spicydinosaur wrote: I'm not liking Xzavier as a D1 lynch but i see why others are voting him. Before chrom threw a vote down on him he did 0 scum hunting and his posts were just policy and/or fluff. With that i can clearly see a vote. However what he has done since the votes started piling on has convinced me he's town. An unproductive town before the vote, but a townie no less. Have you looked at it from the perspective that he might be scum that panicked once he had votes on him and only then started doing something to look more towny? Even now his filter is "plenty of posts, little content", which I find very troublesome, though it I admit I don't feel as sure about this lynch as I did earlier. Also I see that some of my town reads are not on his case or are defending him, which is worrying. | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
On June 26 2013 01:12 Hurricane Sponge wrote: This has been bugging me a little bit. Given the odds, isn't a coin-flip fantastic odds for the town on a Day 1 lynch barring extremely strong scum reads? Consider the case of lynching a coin flip that says nothing about those who voted for him against mislynching someone after considerable amount of discussion. I'd say the latter is better, if only for the fact that it helps figure out who are scum later on. Also note, it's not a true coin flip, since not half of the players are scum. If it was 50/50 odds I'd take it unless I had a very strong scum read on someone. | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
On June 26 2013 01:15 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Please go back and read my case. There's actual analysis in there! I did read it, but I don't really agree with it right now. It's mostly based on meta, and there's so very little history to go by that I don't think it's a very strong case at all. I want to see his reaction (or the lack of it) to get a bit better read. | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
What I really don't like right now is seeing people having Stim as their top scum read. I could agree with a policy lynch on him, but having the lurkiest player as your top scum read seems suspiciously like taking the easy way out. Alakaslam and hzflank: Why is Stim more scummy than everyone else at this time? | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
He's very spammy and posts a lot of fluff (he posted the Venn diagram multiple times). Doesn't give scum reads and when he does it's in a very non-committal way, "gut feels" and so. And now he goes for Stim, the easy lurker choice, and this is how he wants to get Stim lynched: On June 27 2013 14:51 Alakaslam wrote: But my actual original self made scumread that I'm not very proud of but that I'll stand by is StimaDDict. As the other policy lynch I would say vote him, but we don't have the manpower for policy lynches anymore! SO- Let's go, make cases, PROVE OUR TOWNIE INNOCENCE (I think we have neglected that some of us  ) and MOST importantly SCUMHUNT WITH PRECISION! I'll work on StimaDDict, I figure I have made a case I had better make it stronger. On June 27 2013 15:09 Alakaslam wrote: Here is how I will work on Stim. StimaDDict. Have you given up or what? Has anything changed about your opinion on Aquanim? That's the worse "case" on anyone I've seen, and this whole thing gives me the vibe that he's just massively non-committal. I get the same feel from his voting antics on day 1, first claiming he's not going to lynch Xzavier then voting for him anyway without much more of a comment than that he read Aquanim's case. Generally, I read him as trying to look active but not actually participating much, and that I find very scummy. ##Vote: Alakaslam | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
Think this is prudent while I figure out what's going on. ##Unvote | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
Also, applying Occam's Razor to this: On June 28 2013 20:57 hzflank wrote: Simplified: Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane has a power role Alakaslam is town Onegu is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane Would suggest that Alakaslam is scum, as that requires less coincidence. ##Vote: Alakaslam | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
Die, scum. ##Vote: Onegu | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
During day 1, he repeatedly claims he thinks Xzavier is town, yet ends up voting for him anyway with a relatively weak reasoning ("more likely to produce information" - you don't lynch for information if you have a scum read). Also switches his vote around quite a few times and plays the noob defense before anyone even accuses him of anything. On June 26 2013 08:37 hzflank wrote: We will also get Fyfy's flip, which is a bonus. I can't see any town motivation for claiming fyfy's flip being a bonus. Losing an extra player by essentially RNG during day 1 is horrible for town, and in this case it was even worse as fyfy had practically no association with any of the players so his flip did not give any useful information. Almost like a slip, if you ask me. On June 26 2013 14:19 hzflank wrote: EBWOP: @Hurricane Correction to that question: If you had to Vig kill someone tonight, but all players looked equally scummy, who would you shoot? Baiting Hurricane to enter WIFOM hell. Luckily Hurricane was smart enough not to bite. On June 26 2013 09:40 hzflank wrote: Sorry for moving me vote 4 times :/ On June 26 2013 21:08 hzflank wrote: I want to apologize for being really bad on day one. This is not me getting emo, that can wait until the end of the game. On June 27 2013 03:51 hzflank wrote: Sorry that last comment was actually a bit harsh. On June 28 2013 14:40 hzflank wrote: Again, it was horribly bad town play by me and I am sorry for that, but this is not a scum tell on Onegu. His early play contains a lot of trying to appease and claiming he's sorry for being so bad. This in itself isn't necessarily very damning, but will become more important later in this case. On June 28 2013 14:40 hzflank wrote: In response to Firm's case against Onegu. Firm, it's a bad case. You are convinced of his guilt so you are using anything you can to prove it. That's your style and that's fine, but you are not getting my vote for those reasons. Point 1: Fluffy reason. You are also looking for reasons to vote against Onegu that in hindsight you probably wont agree with. See my opening to this post. Point 2: Onegu's vote switch off of Aqua only makes Onegu look scum if Aqua is also scum. If Onegu knew Aqua and Xzavier he could just of left his vote on Aqua as it did not matter which of the two was lynched. In fact, Aqua was playing a better town game than Xzavier so lynching Aqua would have been better for the scum. If Aqua were scum then Onegu switch his vote at a time that ensured Xzavier would be lynched instead of Aqua, but I would have to be a fool to cast a vote today based on that Association. This is especially true because Aqua and I seem to have been thinking on similar lines for most of day 2, and one point I felt like we were almost masonned. Also, on page 22 you played a part in convincing Onegu to move his vote off of Aqua. You were pushing hard to get people to vote in the way you thought it best, just as you are today. That's not a bad thing as I think good town play requires conviction, but it also does not mean that your vote is in the right place. Point 3: I stopped Onegu's day 2 attacked on Aqua. It was really bad play by me. After re-evaluating my play I realise this but it's too late to change that now. I put Onegu in a position where he felt that he might need to vote against your inevitable case, and I was fairly clear that I would not be voting Aqua to be lynched today. I apologise, but your point 3 would be better in a case against me than it is in a case against Onegu. Point 4: Fluffy reason. The cases we were making against Aqua were weak and full of fluffy reasons. Once Onegu has moved his vote off of Aqua then his wagon was doomed to fail, and Onegu moving it back at that point would not of helped. I cannot read his mind to tell you exactly why he felt apathetic, but that feeling alone is not a strong scum tell. Point 5: My fault. During the night I made it look like I thought either you or Chromatically were scummy. You made it look like you were starting an early wagon on Onegu. It also looked like you had secured votes from Hurricane and Alakaslam, and there was even a reasonable chance of getting Aqua on board. Onegu needed my vote to save himself, so his best option was to attack you. Again, it was horribly bad town play by me and I am sorry for that, but this is not a scum tell on Onegu. Overall, I think Onegu seems scummier to you than the other players are you wanted to vote for him. You put a lot of effort into your case and found what you thought were the scummiest things possible about Onegu. Unfortunately, I don't think there was enough there to make a really strong scum case. After I finished reading your case I was not convinced that Onegu was town, and at the time of this post I am still not 100% convinced that Onegu is town. However, I was leaning town and I am now leaning even more town. On June 27 2013 14:20 hzflank wrote: In fact the [u]only thing that makes me want to vote for Stim is that I want him to have a different alignment to me, so that if I win then he loses. During day 2 (before claims), defends Onegu and does a more or less useless vote on Stim without much reasoning. Note that a lot of his defense of Onegu is claiming to be responsible for Onegu's plight because of his bad play. Redirecting blame to himself when he's not under any suspicion at the time. After the claims he first votes Onegu, then switches to Alakaslam, while pretty much attacking and defending both speculatively. On June 29 2013 01:51 hzflank wrote: You think that I have the deciding vote? Fair enough. ##Unvote Scum, get on board and defend your team mate, because I am not placing my vote until the last second. This is a gem. Forcing others to decide so he won't look bad no matter what way the flip goes. Then, once mislynch is clear, votes on Onegu to look good after the flip. On June 30 2013 10:05 hzflank wrote: If I am reading this right then I am about to be shot by scum, which means that no one dies tonight. Claiming veteran, before getting hit (but after starting to hint at it just a bit earlier). Why would that be a good idea? As vet, you want to be hit, and as early as possible. Now the appeasing play from earlier comes in. There's no reason for a vet to play that way. I believe he claimed vet to have a good reason why he's going to survive to LYLO. | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
On June 30 2013 10:26 hzflank wrote: Apart from that Stim also voted for Onegu. But it was, as pointed out earlier, a safe vote anyway, so I wouldn't completely discount it as a town cred vote. | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
On July 02 2013 11:31 Aquanim wrote: I'm around, I just haven't had anything new to say. StiM didn't really give us anything concrete and I'm not sure what to make of LoneMeow's case on hzflank. I'd like to know who else LoneMeow thinks is scum. Analyzing the associations between players: Hurricane - good as confirmed town based on Onegu's flip Aquanim - not likely Stim - possible SpicyDinosaur - possible, even likely? So I'd say probably SpicyDinosaur, possibly Stim. | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
On July 01 2013 19:11 hzflank wrote: I did not have a good scum read. Why should I? How could you even expect my day 1 reads to be any good? In reality, I was the person who tried the hardest to move the wagon off of Xz. By the time I placed my vote it had already been decided and there was no town cred to be gained. Fyfy was almost a lurker. Once there was no counter-wagon to Xz, we were in a position where we would have been better off just policy voting a lurker (Stim). For a time I even moved my vote to a lurker, but people on the Xz wagon stated that that would not be willing to make a last minute vote switch. I was looking forward to seeing Fyfy's flip more than I was looking forward to seeing Xz's flip. I'll agree that fyfy was not one of the most active players, but he was hardly a lurker of the caliber of myself or Stim. I still don't see any reason why anyone would have been looking forward to fyfy's flip, by pure probability it was likely he was town and since he hadn't really engaged with anyone on the discussion his flip gave us nothing to work on. On July 01 2013 19:11 hzflank wrote: We are not losing this game due to bad luck. If we do not look at our own play, find mistakes and try to remove them from our play then we will not only lose this game but also future games. This is a newbie game so learning should be a big part of it. Of course you're supposed to learn, but that does not equate to crying "I'm so bad, sorry sorry" to avoid suspicion. In fact, that still makes you look suspicious to me, trying to avoid scrutiny of your actions so hard. On July 01 2013 19:11 hzflank wrote: I stick by my defence of Onegu on the basis that I did not believe that his day 1 voting apathy was a strong enough scum tell to justify an early day 2 vote on him. It's not just the apathy in voting, it's the way he does it and then tries to backtrack to defend himself when pressured on it. Definitely looked scummy at that point. On July 01 2013 19:11 hzflank wrote: My vote on Stim was not useless as it simultaneously put pressure on both Stim and Onegu. It didn't put any real pressure on Stim at that point, because you didn't have a case on him (so it was unlikely others would follow suit, he wasn't going to get lynched without others joining the wagon) and because it was very early anyway. On July 01 2013 19:11 hzflank wrote: There was only a small amount of town cred to gain from such a move. The town cred is not the key point. The fact that you didn't want to commit is the key point. On July 01 2013 19:11 hzflank wrote: I claimed Vet after the night action deadline passed. I did so because I thought that I would be Night-killed Night 2 and that FirmTofu would be night-killed night 3. We were both confirmed town in my eyes, and Hurricane is not confirmed town until Onegu flips. I tried to hint at FirmTofu to counter-claim Vet, so that when I was night-killed and did not flip Vet, the scum would seriously consider not shooting Firm on Night 3. Unfortunately I did not realise that scum hitting the Vet only changes the LYLO to MYLO, so it would not have been the most useful play anyway. I don't see why you were so sure you'd be the one to be hit next. You've been playing like you're confirmed town, but you really aren't. No one is until they're dead, even Hurricane could very theoretically still be scum (but that'd be such one in a million weird play that I'll just ignore it for now). Even worse, why did you start breadcrumbing vet before this? If you really thought your play would work, wouldn't you want to keep quiet so scum wouldn't change their target away from you? Also, you didn't address my concern about your early play not looking vet-like at all. And, while not relevant in any way for my case, MYLO is preferable to LYLO, especially if as a side bonus you get a more or less confirmed vet claim (or a vet claim + counterclaim). + Show Spoiler + Man, editing the nested quotes was a pain. Hopefully I didn't screw them up. + Show Spoiler + Phone posting only for the next 24 hours or slightly more. | ||
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