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Aligulac Feb 21 update

Forum Index > SC2 General
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TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-21 18:43:33
February 21 2013 16:16 GMT
#1
Sorry I'm late today. I had some students to torture.

Contents (thanks wo1fwood, didn't know BBcode could do this)
  • What is this?
  • New features
  • Old features and pleas
  • Top 10 players
  • Top 10 foreigners
  • Top 10 teams
  • Contact
  • In debt to
Shameless plug first: interview on ESFI World.

What is this?

Aligulac.com is an ongoing statistical project and website in development started in December 2012. It offers a comprehensive database of games from the pro and semipro SC2 scene, as well as a unique rating system aimed at rating players and teams, and predicting games. Every two weeks, when a rating list is finalized, I write a post like this.

The FAQ might be able to answer your questions. If not, I'll be keeping an eye on this thread so you can ask away here.

Also, before we start, I want to quote Heartland from one of my previous threads who had this to share, better put into words than I ever could.

On February 03 2013 02:50 Heartland wrote:
I think what's cool and great about this work is that it does what statistics are good for. They give you the ability to create data and then to look at it critically. But maybe people in this thread confuse statistics with the Truth with a capital p (sic). That's not the way you should read statistics, whether in the morning paper or on TL. Rather statistics can make us think about deeper connections that we haven't seen before, twist and turn around concepts and play with them through statistical models. They're not meant to say "Scarlett should be in Code S." Obviously there are flaws or issues with these stats, but it's common for statistics everywhere. What you can do with that is to add or change some modifier, let it meet other forms of reasoning or to extrapolate on what we take for granted.

So yeah, tl;dr, lies, damn lies and statistics are the case with all stats but it's not the point of stats.

So, let's get on with the news.

New features since last time

The player match histories have changed a bit. They don't sort by event, only by date (so it loads much faster for people with tons of games). The list is also filterable by opponent race, nationality (KR/non-KR at least) and series length. For other filtering you can still use this feature.

URLs are now generally human-readable, i.e. http://aligulac.com/players/10-Stephano/ instead of http://aligulac.com/players/10/ (of course the latter will still work).

The ratings are now updated every six hours instead of every two weeks, so you can see them change «live». The periods are still two weeks long. All you're seeing is a preview of the rating list as it would be if it were calculated right now.

The «most specialised» stats on a rating list are now weighted heavier towards the top of the list, to provide more relevant and interesting results.

The rating system now uses the logistic distribution instead of the normal distribution, which should help accuracy in cases where the skill disparity is large.

There have also been some optimizations in the backend that you are unlikely to notice unless I get several hundred concurrent viewers.

Old features and things you should still know about

Everyone can submit results. Just go here: http://aligulac.com/add/ – some pro players have been scouring their histories and submitting the missing bits (mostly the wins cough, cough), which is great!

Help is still needed! The database is probably the biggest in the world of its kind and it's being maintained by a handful of people. There are still 13,000 matches that have not been catalogued and I dare not imagine how many games we have yet to add. Almost all the Playhem cups are still missing, for example.

People volunteer fairly regularly, but the workload is too damn high for the current staff. For all the rejected TLPD volunteers (I know you are out there, I was one myself) this would be the perfect project.

Anyway, let's get to the juicy bit.

Top 10 players
  1. Life 1997
  2. Leenock 1992
  3. DongRaeGu 1971
  4. PartinG 1966
  5. Bomber 1960
  6. TaeJa 1958
  7. Rain 1948
  8. HyuN 1942
  9. viOLet 1926
  10. ForGG 1911
In spite of a disappointing GSL Ro16, Life gains 6 points after winning some IPL6 tournament. He passes Leenock, who lost two points mostly on account of a loss to Parting in the FXO Invitational. DongRaeGu, like Life, loses in the GSL, but gains 12 points after manhandling Liquid in IPTL. He passes Taeja, Bomber and Parting, who lose 18, 14 and 12 points respectively. Rain has gone 9–2 these weeks and is awarded with 11 points but no ranks. Hyun and ForGG are the new faces in the top 10, ousting Roro and Hero. Hyun in particular gained 88 points after a nice 41–10 performance.

Top 10 foreigners
  1. VortiX 1885
  2. Scarlett 1867
  3. LucifroN 1866
  4. Stephano 1854
  5. Snute 1743
  6. Sen 1735
  7. Kas 1730
  8. TitaN 1709
  9. Fraer 1687
  10. Nerchio 1683
Mostly the usual suspects. The Spanish inquisition unexpectedly (of course) gained points after the aAa, IPL D.I.C.E. and VasaCast. Both lost exactly one series these weeks, to each other. Stephano also gains points in spite of his GSL fiasco. The most significant losers are Scarlett (IPL D.I.C.E.) and Snute (too many to mention).

Top 10 teams, all-kill edition
  1. MVP 91.26%
  2. StarTale 90.85%
  3. AZUBU 90.68%
  4. SK Telecom T1 90.07%
  5. Incredible Miracle 88.77%
  6. Team Liquid 88.55%
  7. FXOpen e-Sports Korea 85.78%
  8. Evil Geniuses 85.66%
  9. Prime 85.62%
  10. STX SouL 84.38%
Top 10 teams, proleague-style edition
  1. MVP 78.35%
  2. Incredible Miracle 75.40%
  3. StarTale 75.28%
  4. AZUBU 75.07%
  5. SK Telecom T1 72.89%
  6. Evil Geniuses 67.24%
  7. Team Liquid 67.24%
  8. FXOpen e-Sports Korea 64.95%
  9. STX SouL 62.34%
  10. Prime 61.05%
There is a nice correlation between allkill rank and proleage rank. Some teams do change though. It appears that IM and EG have deeper rosters than most. The rank is very close and do note that differences in the 2-3% range are probably insignificant.

Contact us

For comments, feedback, feature requests and especially volunteers, you can reach us by:
  • This thread, duh.
  • PM. Me.
  • IRC: #aligulac on quakenet.
  • E-mail to evfonn(at)gmail(dot)com.
  • Pilgrimage to Zürich. I will find you.
Thanks to

New guys: Otolia and Susurrus.

Usual suspects: Conti, kiekaboe, Grovbolle, Inflicted, PhoenixVoid and scisyhp.

Others: Day[9] for using his post for this year in my thread. Hendralisk for great feedback.

I have probably forgotten many.

See you in two weeks!
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
StarVe
Profile Joined June 2011
Germany13591 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-21 17:14:20
February 21 2013 16:57 GMT
#2
Edit: Forget what I said.
BreaK
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Canada890 Posts
February 21 2013 17:02 GMT
#3
This is so great.

The TLPD game records are so incomplete, it would be great if TL could work with you to integrate Aligulac into TL in some way.
formerly ClouD.BreaK ~ gogo KTF! & Liquid!
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3813 Posts
February 21 2013 17:05 GMT
#4
On February 22 2013 01:57 StarVe wrote:
If you need more feature requests (I'm sure you don't) I'd like an option to search for the head-to-head record of two players, like TLPD and sc2charts have it, would just make more sense with your more complete database.

If there already is one, I missed it, sorry.


http://aligulac.com/results/search/?op=search&after=&before=&players=Dongraegu
Taeja&eventtext=


Like this?
Or something else?
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
StarVe
Profile Joined June 2011
Germany13591 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-21 17:16:51
February 21 2013 17:15 GMT
#5
Well, yeah, I kinda fucked up. You're right, I completely overlooked that, missed it as I said.

Keep it up, y'all. Maybe I'll try and submit something again some time and then don't fuck it up. D:
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3813 Posts
February 21 2013 17:17 GMT
#6
On February 22 2013 02:15 StarVe wrote:
Well, yeah, I kinda fucked up. You're right, I completely overlooked that, missed it as I said.


No problem man Just checking
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
February 21 2013 17:22 GMT
#7
On February 22 2013 02:15 StarVe wrote:
Well, yeah, I kinda fucked up. You're right, I completely overlooked that, missed it as I said.

Keep it up, y'all. Maybe I'll try and submit something again some time and then don't fuck it up. D:

Wow, so apologetic. It's fine. Sheesh.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
Targe
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom14103 Posts
February 21 2013 17:24 GMT
#8
HYUN! Yeahhh!
Thank ya for the update
11/5/14 CATACLYSM | The South West's worst Falco main
nomyx
Profile Joined June 2012
United States2205 Posts
February 21 2013 17:30 GMT
#9
Fun fact: Life's elo is his birth year. Neat.
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
February 21 2013 18:11 GMT
#10
gratz!
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Otolia
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
France5805 Posts
February 21 2013 19:09 GMT
#11
You are flattering me TheBB. I hope I'll can figure in there with significant contribution next time !
llIH
Profile Joined June 2011
Norway2147 Posts
February 21 2013 19:18 GMT
#12
Really good. Thanks!
Boucot
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
France15997 Posts
February 21 2013 20:03 GMT
#13
Good job, as usual, keep going !
Former SC2 writer for Millenium - twitter.com/Boucot
fezvez
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
France3021 Posts
February 21 2013 23:12 GMT
#14
If I may, could you describe what is going on with the world's 11th greatest Protoss Titan?

So, he is the top protoss foreigner. And he is currently 9-22 in his most recent matches, and his wins are against "low-level" opponents.

But he is still the best foreigner, and I find it strange. Could you provide a detailed description of how his points went up and down?

He is at 1633, then loses 3-8 to Hyun (roughly 1900) and gets projected at 1800? Is this intended behavior?
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-21 23:29:20
February 21 2013 23:27 GMT
#15
On February 22 2013 08:12 fezvez wrote:
He is at 1633, then loses 3-8 to Hyun (roughly 1900) and gets projected at 1800? Is this intended behavior?

Where does he get «projected at 1800»? (Not sure exactly what that means.)

There are details for each rating adjustment made here: http://aligulac.com/players/60-TitaN/period/79/

Browse back and forth using the arrows.

If you're thinking about the numbers here: http://aligulac.com/players/60-TitaN/results/ then they are matchup-specific ratings. He has 1633 vZ but the 1797 is vT. You can see Titan has a high PvT rating and a low PvZ rating. All his ratings have mostly been decreasing for the last three months.

On February 22 2013 08:12 fezvez wrote:
If I may, could you describe what is going on with the world's 11th greatest Protoss Titan?

That's your interpretation, not mine.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
Boucot
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
France15997 Posts
February 22 2013 00:55 GMT
#16
23 games winning streak for ForGG, not bad.
Former SC2 writer for Millenium - twitter.com/Boucot
neoghaleon55
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7435 Posts
February 22 2013 01:04 GMT
#17
god I love these posts.
You color my world theBB
moo...for DRG
MCXD
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
Australia2738 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-22 01:22:48
February 22 2013 01:14 GMT
#18
I feel like this would be a low priority, but would it be possible to eventually implement by-event statistics? By that I mean... say you click on an event, like http://aligulac.com/results/events/449-Proleague/ , then at the top there is a collapsible stats panel which has things like TvP/PvZ/ZvT scores, number of games/players total, etc. Much like TLPD.
Prplppleatr
Profile Joined May 2011
United States1518 Posts
February 22 2013 01:36 GMT
#19
Just curious...how are you going to handle HOTS? WoL data won't be too relevant...will it be a clean slate? will there be a formula that gives notion to the WoL stats? Will it just be added to the WoL data?
🥇 Prediction Contest - Mess with the best, die like the rest.
Conti
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany2516 Posts
February 22 2013 01:48 GMT
#20
New features are awesome, as always. Now you can do fun things like finding out the Bo3 (and above) win-rate of foreigners against Koreans!

Here's it for the top 10 foreigners:
VortiX: 48%
Scarlett: 50%
LucifroN: 36%
Stephano: 59%
Snute 47%
Sen: 42%
Kas 49%
Nerchio 53%
TitaN 46%
Fraer 53%
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