EPTDamn school :/
Nomination Mafia
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debears
United States2516 Posts
Damn school :/ | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
I'll catch up as much as possible tonight and tomorrow and get this train rolling | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
Would you guys like my reads from google docs for the first 30 pages? | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
On February 14 2013 09:05 VisceraEyes wrote: I'd like you to hold off on your reads until after dawn debears. Give scum the chance to guess who you don't want lynched. Yeah when are the deadlines in hours from now? | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
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debears
United States2516 Posts
Let me know if you need clarification. These are actually only thru page 23/25 i believe https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtCRkXQG1MtEdEZ1eUZNS3ZUdHFYZjRadzZNV2p5V1E#gid=0 | ||
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debears
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debears
United States2516 Posts
On February 14 2013 12:27 Oatsmaster wrote: Its locked Debears. Also I dont see how this is very useful :/ Your reads will probably change by page 74.. I know that snarf got lynched and he was scum, so i factored that in to what i thought | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
I'll be looking at Mocsta/CC | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
On February 14 2013 12:30 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: But Debears I'm really disappoint I thought you'd have more by now. Y u no read faster? This week is opening weekend for my team's season. I planned on doing the heavy lifting tonight and getting to page 50/60 | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
Between cc and mocsta, I see mocsta as more likely to be scum. Ill have to reevaluate (at page 50 now) once I catch up | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
On February 15 2013 11:18 Oatsmaster wrote: Oh my. DEBEARS. why are you so slow? Cuz I'm thorough. I have a good idea where to head for the next lynch. I have to look at the 2 candidates for this lynch closer. And I'm on a bus ride reading fro. Phone :/ | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
On February 15 2013 11:18 Oatsmaster wrote: Oh my. DEBEARS. why are you so slow? Cuz I'm thorough. I have a good idea where to head for the next lynch. I have to look at the 2 candidates for this lynch closer. And I'm on a bus ride reading fro. Phone :/ | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
I found his play thru his targets (djo), activity (not engaged, late entrance), and substance (some posts in there serve no purpose while looking like they do so) | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
His play scu. Oriented | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
There are some timing things with the voting and some scenarios I want to lay out Will be getting on it tonight at the latest. For now, I will most definitely not lynch cc based on his snarfs lynch. Sloosh, in the end, voted for scum, but if I read correctly his vote was after the deciding vote. Ill have to reread him. Finally, I believe as of now that mocsta should be the lynch today based on his multiple times of defending snarfs (whether soft or hard). Mocsta also tried to push counter candidates hard all day 3 away from snarfs ##vote mocsta | ||
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debears
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debears
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On February 16 2013 04:28 prplhz wrote: I don't believe that Mocsta is scum and I'm voting for Mr. Cheesecake. I don't really care who you lynch of Mocsta and slOosh since I believe they're both town. ##Mr. Cheesecake So you would believe that cc as supposed scum would push his scumbuddy day 1 on and then spearhead a bus lynch on snarfs over a lynch on yamato or someone else? | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
Votecounts: + Show Spoiler + On February 12 2013 14:04 jaybrundage wrote: Vote Count Snarfs: Mr.Cheesecake, Yamato77, Yamato77: JayBrundage, Phagga, Mocsta, VisceraEyes: Snarfs, SlOosh Mr.Cheesecake: Prplhz, Prplhz: VisceraEyes, Oatsmaster Have not voted: Djodref, Oats did you vote CC today? On February 13 2013 07:08 jaybrundage wrote: Everybody has to die sometime Day 3 Vote Count: Snarfs (4): Mr. Cheesecake, yamato77, Yamato77 (1): VisceraEyes (4): Snarfs, SlOosh, Mocsta, Jaybrundage Mr. Cheesecake (1): prplhz prplhz (0): Snarfs is currently set to be lynched. Djodref has not voted. You have ~4h hours left until the end of the day. Phagga come to lynch VE with us scum is really trying to make this not happen. On February 13 2013 08:04 jaybrundage wrote: Day 3 Vote Count: Snarfs (5): Mr. Cheesecake, yamato77, Yamato77 (0): VisceraEyes (4): Snarfs, Mr. Cheesecake (1): prplhz (0): Snarfs is currently set to be lynched. Djodref has not voted. SlOosh Has not voted You have ~3h hours left until the end of the day. On February 13 2013 08:11 BioSC wrote: Day 3 Vote Count: Snarfs (6): Mr. Cheesecake, yamato77, Yamato77 (0): VisceraEyes (4): Snarfs, Mr. Cheesecake (0): prplhz (0): Snarfs is currently set to be lynched. Djodref has not voted. You have less than 3 hours left until the end of the day. On February 13 2013 10:40 BioSC wrote: Day 3 Vote Count: Snarfs (7): Mr. Cheesecake, yamato77, Yamato77 (0): VisceraEyes (3): Snarfs, Mr. Cheesecake (0): prplhz (0): Snarfs is currently set to be lynched. Djodref has not voted. You have 20 minutes left until the end of the day. CheeseCake - Town Suspicious of snarfs since d1. Early vote on snarf - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17766828 Leaves open possibility of switching to Yamato ------> Never switches to Yamato Pushes the snarf lynch hard when VE lynch gains traction. Snarf was scum, CC risked everything, saying "lynch me if snarf is town". Yamato - Town The second vote on snarfs. Vote stayed on snarfs. Pushed snarfs very hard all day. VE - slight town VE switched onto Snarfs when he himself was at threat of getting lynched. So VE's vote is a null tell to me. However, Snarfs had been pushing VE since day 1. VE was snarf's only real scumread that he pursued aggressively. This tells me the VE is most likely town, unless they (if both town), planned on a double bus at the very beginning of the game. Also, his counter wagon gained a lot of traction fast over a snarfs wagon that had a lot more scum oriented content behind it. JayBrund - Scum+ Show Spoiler + Jay pushed Yamato at first, and then VE. The yamato push isn't scummy solely because he pushed yamato, it is also scummy because of the timing and the reasoning behind his push on yamato. Context: Here is jay's post on yamato + Show Spoiler + On February 11 2013 13:02 jaybrundage wrote: YAMATO Cause Palmar said so WELP HERE WE GO Well first of all there's this Lets start from the top Yamato wants to lynch Mocsta as quite a bit of people viewed Mocsta scummy at first Oats naming one and i know he had about 3-4 votes at one point in time. However when Mocsta actually writes up his defense Yamato completly back tracks. And chalks it up to Mocsta misunderstanding his case? Yamato thought Mocsta was scum it wouldn't be misunderstanding it would be him twisting words. And then Yamato just flips it around and calls Mocsta town later. Ok So here Yamato comes full circle in Mocsta from hes scum to idk to yea hes town. And get this then Yamato calls JX scummy for calling Mocsta scum when a short while ago. Yamato was going after Mocsta with a pick axe. Also note his need as scum to want to kill Palmar ASAP. Here he just becomes unreasonable demanding a JX lynch while not even listening to alternatives The sole reason he wants to go after people now is lack of activity. He legit with all the information we have got from two lynches is gonna do a lurker lynch is he fucking srs? Yes lurking can be a tell of scum. But to use it alone as who you decide to kill at this point in the game is just a easy scum route. Also look at the people that he's defending VE prlhz the exact people that Palmar and Sloosh are going for. Also keep in mind his one track mind to want ot lynch Palmar. We have SCUM Yamato here. ##Vote Yamato Note that half his case is using palmar's words to justify his case, which isn't reasonable. Palmar himself said that his reads likely weren't great this game due to the fact he was behind on the game. Now, for the three or so parts where Jay actually writes something of his own. 1) Yamato's flip on Mocsta. Let's examine why Yamato flipped on his read on Mocsta Yamato's original case: + Show Spoiler + On February 07 2013 03:05 yamato77 wrote: QUOTE]On January 20 2013 22:18 Mocsta wrote: It doesnt matter if i think yamato is a candidate with a chance to win, I represent one vote out of 22. I thought yamato campaigned passive-aggressively; just like Toad. Its an approach I am oft in favour of when attempting to look squeaky-clean whilst attempting to manipulate. Having said that, its not pertinent to determining alignment. At least not with the information we have currently. This is from page 1 of Mocsta's filter in LIX, the game he was town. He gives out, in the part I bolded, his rationale in thinking Toad and I might be mafia, but in doing so reveals his own thought process when mafia, that being passive-aggressive is a way to play mafia. On January 12 2013 16:38 Mocsta wrote: @Sn0_Man I appreciate the sense of energy you are giving back to this thread, and I certainly do not want to deter that; town needs this energy. BUT.. you are almost sounding "paranoid" - I know this, because after my last game, many assumed I was "paranoid". I think we both want the same thing, a town environment where people can voice their opinion and join together for the scum hunt. When you say "it seems fair since people like you are jumping in to defend him pretty fast"; that alienates participants from wanting to contribute. You are actually creating an environment scum can thrive in with that attitude - even though I doubt that is your intention. I ask that you please think about the above. This is the first alignment-indicative post Mocsta made in NMM XXXV, the game he was mafia. What do you notice here? On February 06 2013 15:49 Mocsta wrote: Oats you have an uncanny ability to read a wall of text and focus on one word in that paragraph. You sound like a whiny chick to me, who hears one word she doesnt like, and zones off to everything else. I AM NOT SETUP SPECULATING. The fuckn setup is 9 town, 4 mafia. I am saying we need to make scum work hard to become read as town, I am saying good play Day1 is to emphasise quality posts, and avoid being a lurker I am saying, bad play Day1, is going to make nominations for scum in Day2 much fuckn easier. He's making the same sort of argument about Oats this game that he did about Sn0 in the other game, that their play isn't "optimal" and they are "helping mafia". It's a fabricated read, in my eyes, and a fabricated contribution to say such things. It doesn't matter how a player is playing versus how you think the ideal town player SHOULD play, it matters if that player is playing in a way you know mafia would play. On January 12 2013 22:38 Mocsta wrote: Well im going to bed anyways.. will check in the thread in the morning, and will then be away for at least 6 hrs. *sigh* Please generate some discussions USA shift ! There are still plenty of players who have not even posted yet. zebezt, trust me.. I know the feeling to want some discussion happening, but, as town we don't want to create spam. Unfortunately now its just a waiting game for some activity. [Unless 24hrs has expired.. thats my personal deadline for lurker calling] On February 06 2013 17:10 Mocsta wrote: Oats, Stop getting over-defensive. Now you have to spell out actions. If you couldnt tell my post was a joke, you have problems. And your comment regarding my intentions is stupid. You admit yourself it is "optimal play'.. well no shit, why you think I am striving for that. Im not trying to re-invent the wheel. Again you are flinging shit at an active participant, and for what purpose? Still, no one is contributing; and the one guy who does, you tell him to "fuck off" whether joke or not. Lay off the juice and give others a chance to input into the thread. Those two posts showcase a trait I see in Mafia Mocsta's play, a preoccupation with "contribution" and "lurking" from other players. Aside from the meta similarity here, the mafia trait is that he's doing exactly what he thinks people give out town reads for, and indeed what some of you have given him a town read for this game, simply post. He calls out "lurkers" to appear to contribute and care about the town atmosphere, something I readily see as a common trait in his mafia game and this one. On January 13 2013 07:14 Mocsta wrote: Wow. Thats it over the night shift. Oats u sound like sno_man. perhaps the aggresion u 2 have shown is why there is a lack of discussion. I think u should read what i posted to him. My questions are ice breakers and i have not a genuine comment from to stimulate town conversation. In fact. You are deterring conversation. @oatsmaster Why should i NOT treat is the outcome of your agressive posts [stopping fluid and positive town conversation] as scummy motivations On February 06 2013 16:34 Mocsta wrote: VE, you posted you would prefer nomination discussion to be held post Day 2 Dawn - when scum lynch candidates are released. My motive for the quote was along the lines of: the candidates are going to be chosen based on play Day 1. Yes that statement is obvious, hoever what I am trying to highlight is that effort needs to be made to make the decision for scum difficult. I listed 4 scenarios scum can take; we can't control that decision. What we can CONTROL is the viability of one of those options - to me, this is of benefit to town as it reduces WIFOM choices. I thought my message(s) were clear cut, but, perhaps I am not communicating myself effectively. If not, please let me know. Again, two similar posts in rationale from NMM XXXV and this game. In both posts, he wants to paint what he's doing as "pro-town" by, again, promoting a positive discussion-based atmosphere. He's concerned with how people perceive what he's doing, and wants to control the discussion on the matter. It's mafia mentality, plenty of people, Marv included, attempt to play "pro-town" when mafia. Mcosta, when mafia, is obsessed with the concept, just like he is in this game. I highly doubt Mocsta is town. Who is his scum read so far? All I see in his filter is a bunch of arguing with Oats, and then arriving at the conclusion that he's town/null/whatever. It doesn't look to me like he's hunting mafia, it looks like to me that he's just trying to look town. In this post, yamato essential states that Mocsta was fake contributing day 1, just calling out people for contribution and lurking, with tone similar to his scum meta. Also, he has a problem with Mocsta caring about his own appearance. However, why did yamato switch his read? + Show Spoiler + On February 07 2013 12:54 yamato77 wrote: I'm starting to come around to the idea of town Mocsta, actually. I believe he has a scum read on me, wrong or not. I'm not going to pick apart his case on me, because honestly it's too time consuming to do so, but rather, I'll say this: Reread what you've quoted with the idea that I'm town in your head, and you'll see what I've been doing this game. It does no good for you, as town, to continue to pursue me. With that, I'd be behind a JX lynch. His one post is a "case" and vote on Mocsta. He was a QT spammer in our game together, and was far more active there than the thread, as opposed to his "carefree" town games like LIX. I'd be behind his lynch. Palmar should also be on people's minds. No, you don't want to lynch Palmar D1 if he's town, but you don't exactly want him staying alive until tomorrow if mafia, either, so if he refuses to do anything for the rest of today I would say he should almost certainly be our lynch. A weak ass joke-vote on Prplhz is not meaningful contribution. I don't like a Djodref lynch at the moment, but I need to reassess his posting from a more objective standpoint. I was giving him too much credit for his Mocsta read before. Still, I think he is perhaps not the best choice in front of people like JX/Palmar, so he's a backburner for me. I don't know what's going on between VE/Snarfs, but I don't think people are cool with lynching VE so Snarfs needs some better contributions than a "case" on VE that I don't find to be good. He realizes, "hey, mocsta has a scumread". The lack of mocsta's scumreads was a major basis of yamato's scum read on mocsta. Why wouldn't yamato switch his read upon realizing a major reason for mocsta being scum was wrong? 2) Being stubborn about a JX lynch d1 By the end of day1, yamato was stubborn on JX. However, Jay totally disregards the fact that yamato had commented with cases on yamato, phagga, and prplhz. Yamato had shown that he was actively trying to figure out the game, and had settled on JX for the lynch. 3) The case on snarfs He pretty much calls yamato's case on snarfs a pure lurker lynch. Yet he totally disregards what Yamato said, which imo was decent analysis of the situation Here are yamato's words on the snarfs vote: "Assume that Sloosh and Mocsta are town. With Palmar's green flip, that means that I was wrong and mafia decided to make the lynch a choice between three town players. They don't care who dies, really, because any of the three is good for them. So mafia are more inclined to not care at all what happens yesterday. They lurk, slap their vote somewhere, and do nothing relevant to the game because there is zero chance of them getting lynched and they have no reason to push a mafia agenda. So who fits this bill from yesterday? Snarfs, jay, and djo. Djo is the question mark of the three, because he simply didn't post at all. The other two, however, had very similar days and patterns of activity. They both slapped their vote on someone early, and then basically AFK'd. Right now, I think Snarfs is the best lynch because of this behavior and his similar behavior around the lynch day 1 where he didn't vote JX but rather put Hus vote on VE and used his 'case' as an excuse to not comment on the actual lynch. He should die today." This is in no way a pure lurker lynch suggestion. It's a vote based on the fact that someone didn't care about the lynch, which is usually a scumtell. 4) The timing of jay's case on yamato. Look at the timestamp of jay's case. Now look at the timestamp of when yamato voted snarfs. On February 11 2013 12:45 yamato77 wrote: One heuristic that I find important to mention about the behavior of people around yesterday's lynch is simple activity. Assume that Sloosh and Mocsta are town. With Palmar's green flip, that means that I was wrong and mafia decided to make the lynch a choice between three town players. They don't care who dies, really, because any of the three is good for them. So mafia are more inclined to not care at all what happens yesterday. They lurk, slap their vote somewhere, and do nothing relevant to the game because there is zero chance of them getting lynched and they have no reason to push a mafia agenda. So who fits this bill from yesterday? Snarfs, jay, and djo. Djo is the question mark of the three, because he simply didn't post at all. The other two, however, had very similar days and patterns of activity. They both slapped their vote on someone early, and then basically AFK'd. Right now, I think Snarfs is the best lynch because of this behavior and his similar behavior around the lynch day 1 where he didn't vote JX but rather put Hus vote on VE and used his 'case' as an excuse to not comment on the actual lynch. He should die today. ##Vote Snarfs As for other reads, obviously I think jay is an acceptable alternative lynch candidate. I defended him early day 1 but since then he's done very little, which is more in line with how I view his scum meta. When he's town he at least cares enough to post his thoughts, but this game he's not even doing that anymore and is probably mafia for it. Phagga is scummy, as others have outlined. I don't see him as red as I do snarfs or jay, but he's on my radar. If I was making a hypothetical scum team, I'd say the fourth might be Oats. In the past day his activity has dropped off a cliff and I don't know what his reads in the game are anymore. He seems to be sticking to his guns from day 1 but has no new information to support his reads and hasn't been very active in the game. For town reads, Mocsta and Sloosh look really town to me, mostly from their play while under the gun. I'm more confident on Mocsta than Sloosh, but I would defend either one's towniness. VE and prplhz are also both town to me, despite other player's suspicions of them. If I need to defend them today, I will, because neither show scum traits to me at all. Cheesecake, you asked for my read on you. You lean town to me, but you're real blendy and not at all confrontational like I think town CC is. I suppose you haven't been accused seriously yet, but you also aren't going out of your way to pressure your reads like I think town CC usually does. You're more null than I expected at this point in the game. If you guys think I'm mafia for serious, come at me, but neither case from yesterday is at all good. I've been the towniest yamato of all time. Bring the cases on. 17 minutes after yamato votes snarfs, Jay magically has a case on him, based on palmar's reads and jay's bad/twisted reasoning. That, my friends, is scummy. Now, for Jay's vote on VE. Snarfs had pushed VE hard since the beginning of the game, and, not only did jay join the wagon, jay also freaked out when snarfs was getting lynched. But, the main problem was the timing of his voteswitch. After oats unvoted yamato, and yamato's lynch was losing steam, jay did not keep pushing yamato. Instead, Jay suddenly decides, "oh, i'll just join the VE wagon that suddenly popped up". What was his reasoning for VE being scum? On February 13 2013 06:58 jaybrundage wrote: Yea I love how divided the votes are It will make it so much easier to see scum movements later in the day. And actually the thing I wanted to talk to you about was changing the vote to VE today. But you did it earlier then I would of liked. I wanted to get more a read of VE and scum friends on if they would of killed Yamato instead of Snarfs instead. ##UnVote ##Vote VisceraEyes I looked thru the 3 pages before the VE vote, and guess what? Jay never made a case on VE, yet he saw him as "very likely scum". That's odd and scummy as shit, especially considering snarfs was scum and had pushed VE all game long. Suddenly, when snarfs is under heavy pressure, jay sees it fitting to vote yamato, who he made a big case on, and then unvote yamato for VE, whom he never made a case on. I have more i need to add in there. These are the clear reads I got from the day3 analysis | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
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