EPTI don't want to play two games at once, but I'm seriously tempted ^^
I like the setup already but we need moar information on it !
Normal Mini Mafia IV
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
I don't want to play two games at once, but I'm seriously tempted ^^ I like the setup already but we need moar information on it ! | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
No more replacement, I want /in | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
wooo, player list is stacked ! I don't know Sharrant and the xscxsxscsck guy. Anyone could enlighten me ? I hope syllo could join as well ^^ Honestly told, I don't want to roll mafia with such a roster  But I'll do my best anyway ! Also I just got killed day 1 as town so I'm really pumped ! I just hope it was a mafia shot >.< | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
They should definitively claim right off the bat if they are self aware ^^ | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On January 23 2013 19:27 xsksc wrote: I'll be very surprised if I ever play in a game where my name isn't misspelled at least 50 times. ^_^ I played a bit from October '11 till last summer but I haven't played since then, too busy. D: Okay, nice to meet you then. You can find all my previous game in my profile if you need to  And we should form a club of people whose name is getting misspelled | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
They should claim as well, but miller are usually aware in C9++ setups. They are supposed to be soft blue roles | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On January 24 2013 00:51 Toadesstern wrote: selfaware millers are somewhat like that in C9++ with the knowledge of the set-up, just that it's not modconfirmed and counter- and fakeclaimable. I would like to add that the probability to have a miller in a classic C9++ game is roughly of 40%. And there is never two millers, except if you run a weird, unorthodox, bad setup like marv and wbg do. So fakeclaiming miller is quite risky for a mafia player ^^ Regarding miller claims, you should do the following imo:
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
So, let's compute the probability to have exactly one M in the 7 letters defining the setup. M has a probability of 1/10 to be rolled. Let's have X for any letter not being M, and X has a probability of 9/10 to be rolled. MXXXXXX XMXXXXX XXMXXXX XXXMXXX Here you have all the setups with exactly one mason, each of them with a probability of (9/10)^6*(1/10) XXXXMXX XXXXXMX XXXXXXM There are 7 such setups like this. The final probability to have exactly one M is 7*(9/10)^6*(1/10)=0.3720087 The probability is so roughly of 37% So then you should add the probability to have exactly 3 Ms in the 7 letters defining the setup. You have (7*6*5)/(3*2) arrangements of 3 Ms into the 7 letters, that is 35 arrangements. Each arrangement has a probability of (9/10)^4*(1/10)^3 so the probability to have exactly 3 Ms is roughly of 2.3% ?? That should make a ~39.5% probability to have a miller in the classic C9++ setup I guess. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On January 24 2013 02:11 Dandel Ion wrote: But it should be impossible to get 2 millers, right? You can at least only ever get 1 IC afair. Also when I (badly) mathed it, I got the (probably wrong) result of a 37.7% chance of getting a miller out of it. NOT THAT IT MATTERS You can have two millers, it's just incredibly improbable, and I guess that the host rolls the setup again in that case You have then MMMMXXX or anything looking alike. How did you get 37.7% ? It's close to what I have but not exactly the same. I'm confused now. Shit, I even think I got 37.7% when I computed it in Mario Mini... | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On January 24 2013 02:17 Mocsta wrote: Your wrong Seriously ? Don't troll me, I take this kind of things seriously, and I need to go to bed soon, I don't want to think that I could have made a mistake here. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On January 24 2013 02:18 Mocsta wrote: Wrong because setup speculation is scum talk Djo (you know that personally!!) and mason is a town role !!! You know, I was actually solving the game for them at that time ^^ | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On January 24 2013 02:20 Mocsta wrote: If only I could have that type of wit in a live game  I think you should just follow my advice concerning self-aware masons in C9++ games Then you'll be fine. Maybe you could check this page (clicky) to have an idea of how many blue roles are expected to be in the game given the mafia flips ^^ | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On January 24 2013 02:30 Dandel Ion wrote: It's 37.7 because roughly 37% come from the single M, and a ~0.7% for the triple M. Can't remember exact values. ICs happen with XXXXXXM and XXXXMMM setups, no others. There can only be one IC. So unless there's a secret TL way of rolling c9 I'm not aware of, it should be impossible to roll two millers (ics) afaik, afaik. Oh, yeah, you are right. I didn't remember the setups correctly. Two millers is strictly impossible then, I'll edit my previous message ^^ | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On January 24 2013 02:39 marvellosity wrote: In the C9 modified setup me and bugs use, 2 millers is possible Noooooooooooooooooo | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On January 24 2013 02:30 Dandel Ion wrote: It's 37.7 because roughly 37% come from the single M, and a ~0.7% for the triple M. Can't remember exact values. ICs happen with XXXXXXM and XXXXMMM setups, no others. There can only be one IC. So unless there's a secret TL way of rolling c9 I'm not aware of, it should be impossible to roll two millers (ics) afaik, afaik. You sure you get 0.7% for the triple M ? | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On January 24 2013 02:49 marvellosity wrote: this is why it's terrible to speculate on setup when it's already known in OP it's altered. you can't presume to know about the makeup of blues/mafia/SK unless you know exactly what it's based on (see rock band where i clarified multiple times to be sure) the only thing you can get is general ideas. more goons = less blues, etc. and there's likely to always be a roleblocker. That's why I really like Keir games, at least you know exactly how the setup has been rolled. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
Could you review my precedent post ? I've edited it and I got ~2.3% for the triple M. | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On January 24 2013 02:58 Dandel Ion wrote: no I hate math. It's the work of the devil. It also doesn't matter. At all. Come on ! You are going to know exactly the risk you are going to take the next time you would like to claim miller as mafia in a C9++ game ! | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
T'es vraiment francais ? If you are a new player, it might not be the best game to register into... | ||
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
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