by stuchiu

On the Cusp

The defending champions FXO will now go up against perennial semi-finalists in TSL with a top four, playoff berth on the line. This will be a very interesting match as both teams are similar in having attained success with smaller, leaner rosters compared to some of the other teams in the GSTL. Coaching decisions will be key in this match-up, and there should be a lot of creative picks and counter picks.

Though FXOpen is no LG-IM or StartaleQ, they have a wider range of players and races to choose from compared to TSL, with solid aces for each race in Gumiho, Leenock, and Tear. While their bench is not spectacular, they have decent options in players like Lucky, Sirius, asd, TheBest and so forth. While they overachieved slightly to win the GSTL last season, FXO is on the whole, a very balanced team with no glaring weaknesses.

Team Swarm Life is far from balanced, relying heavily on a Zerg line-up of Symbol, Hyun, Revival and Shine. Ragnarok is a decent player as well, making them the only team in the GSTL that could field a truly competitive, one-race line-up. Their only reliable non-Zerg player is Polt, a player who has had trouble performing as well in team competitions as he has in individual leagues. Inori is the team's sole option for Protoss firepower, but unfortunately he seems more than a little bit shakey. The lack of depth in Terran and Protoss is definitely TSL's biggest weakness, but their Zerg line has been strong enough to keep them in the upper half of the competition.


The Opening Match: FXOChoya vs. TSL_inori - Cloud Kingdom

While some expected Choya to find even more playing time after Oz's departure from FXO, the player/head coach actually took a backseat last season and allowed Tear to handle most of the Protoss workload (to great effect, we might add). Now Choya has put himself back in the fray, which has always been something of a double-edged sword. His well-prepared builds have surprised 'better' players like Keen and MMA, but on the whole Choya sports a sub 50% win-rate in team leagues.

Choya's opponent, will have just as much to prove, as Inori comes in with the GSL's longest losing streak in terms of absolute time, not having won a GSL match since 2010. He hasn't fared very well outside the GSL either, having more losses than wins in various international team leagues, making this a match between the black sheep of both teams. Whoever takes this match will get a much needed win, but the losing team is likely to tie it right back at 1 - 1.


The Rosters:

FXOpen

Three of the FXO spots will be reserved for the main three in Gumiho, Leenock and Tear. Or so one would think. Korean coaches are famous for their unexpected personnel decisions, and without knowing how players perform at in-house practice, it's hard to judge if such decisions are justified. But with a direct play-off berth on the line, it's hard to imagine a world where Choya is not planning to play his power trio. Generally, FXO has used the last 2 spots for the other Zergs on the team such as Whale, Sirius and Lucky, but Choya has already changed it up by playing himself as the point man.

GuMiho: FXO's ace Terran player, and on occasion, just the ace overall. His multi-tasking and macro builds are his best traits, and he has very strong TvZ and TvT, making him particularly suited for taking out TSL. Of all the FXO players, he is the one you could say is the most streaky, as we all saw in the finals of the previous GSTL where he all-killed SlayerS. Streakiness is one the most valuable traits in the GSTL, and Gumiho might even be FXO's best GSTL player just because of it.

Leenock: Leenock is FXO’s second ace, and he is also a potential TSL killer with strong ZvT and ZvZ. I imagine FXO may be saving him as the designated anti-Polt sniper, although his good ZvZ makes him a fine choice against everyone else as well. Leenock's recent mastery of turtle-hive, in total contrast to the styles he has shown us for nearly two years, means that Polt will have to play his very best to have a chance (that or 11/11 rax).

Tear: While Gumiho and Leenock have much more fame as FXO’s aces, Tear did just as much of the heavy lifting last season. As luck would have it, Tear is also a strong vs. Zerg player. It's hard to say where FXO will want to drop him in the line-up, but it might be deeper into the series after some of the less favorable PvZ maps have been used.

The Zergs - Lucky, Sirius and Whale: FXO almost always use one of their rotation Zergs in team league games, and FXO will be shopping for bargain deals with these three. While not as volatile as PvP, ZvZ still allows a weaker player to narrow the skill gap drastically through a blind build order counter, and FXO will try to trade one of these Zergs for one of the TSL’s.

The Terrans - TheBest and asd: asd has been playing well lately, but the level of the TSL Zergs' ZvT is probably above him. I have zero clue as to how TheBest is doing now, but FXO has always had a peculiar love of sending in TheBest so you never know.



Team SCV Life

Currently, TSL’s roster is fairly lean and usually 4 of the spots are locked up in Polt, Symbol, HyuN, and Shine. The strategy here is probably to save Symbol until the very end, while the first 4 players will try to knock out as many players as possible. While Symbol hasn't been able to break the Ro8 barrier in the GSL, he's still one of the better aces in the GSTL and an all-kill waiting to happen.

The extras - Punisher, Revival and RagnaroK: TSL should feel pretty happy about drawing a PvP with Choya, which is probably the best match-up they could have hoped to use Inori in. With Inori already confirmed, one wonders if they'll be using any of the players in this list, though Shine's spot is occasionally taken by Revival or Ragnarok instead. With Shine having had to prepare for his Code A match yesterday, there's a possibility we'll see that kind of substitution occur tonight.

Shine: Shine is an overall strong player with a specialty in ZvT, and could challenge Gumiho if he's playing his best. However, he's probably spent most of his time practicing for his ZvP match against Terminator in Code A last night, and might not even play tonight unless it's against Tear or Choya.

HyuN: The last time I previewed Hyun he had won eight IPL Fight Clubs. He has now won a ninth. At this point, Hyun’s skill is unquestionable, it’s now about Hyun getting past his nerves, overconfidence, or whatever it is that stops him from recreating those performances in the GSL. #2 seems like a good spot for HyuN, as it's a spot with the least pressure, and HyuN definitely has all-kill power.

Polt: Polt is a bit of a conundrum in team leagues. He’s certainly strong enough to take down anyone on the FXO team. On the other hand, he rarely goes on hot streaks. Though he's the team captain, a better roll for Polt might be as a designated sniper, prepared to cut any hot-streak short.

Symbol: When all else fails Symbol will win. Symbol rarely fails as the ace of TSL and has once again proven himself in the clutch by beating both MKP and Byun in the last match against Prime. While it would seem like a tall order to defeat a triple threat of Gumiho, Tear and Leenock, Symbol has always shown his best play in the team leagues pulling off seemingly impossible feats.


Overall Prediction:

It's very close, but FXO should be able to take out TSL here. They haven’t lost any of the steam that made them champions last season, and their roster matches up very well against the Zerg-heavy TSL. On the other hand, TSL has been carried for quite a bit by Symbol, who while showing very strong Zerg play, hasn’t quite reached back to the level he was playing at months ago when he all-killed LG-IM. Either way this should be a tense and exciting match.

FXO 5 - 4 TSL