by Waxangel

Where They Stand

StarTaleQ have been busy doing StartaleQ-ish things, getting pounded by an inferior NS HoSeo team while all of their Code S players failed to play up to their credentials. Honestly, it does feel just a bit unfair to single out Startale for that kind of inconsistency. The all-kill format lends towards incredible hot streaks, and many other teams have found themselves getting torn down by the unlikeliest of players. NSH's Sculp and Jjakji aren't the worst players to lose to, not by any means. Still, a loss is a loss, and STQ will need to do a lot better to avoid Prime's fate.

They'll get another chance to prove themselves against FXOpen, who are similar to NS HoSeo in being a team that's inferior to StartaleQ on paper. FXO's top four of Leenock, Oz, Gumiho, and Lucky used to be the best four in the GSTL, but all of them have lost a lot of their luster since their peaks in late 2011. Even if Oz hadn't departed for FnaticRC, FXO would still be a team on the decline. Lucky's back in Code B, while Leenock and Gumiho have fallen far from being top Code S players. Even without Polt or Symbol playing a role, it wasn't much of a surprise to see FXOpen lose to a rising powerhouse in TSL.


The Opening Match
ST_Hack Entombed Valley FXOasd (aka Nuclear)

Entombed Valley isn't a great Terran map statistically, but it's one that Terran players seem to think is fairly playable.

From the Startale perspective, Hack is a completely unremarkable, safe choice. He's not one of their stars, but he's a player who does well in online tournaments, and I'm going to say it's a safe bet he's a strong player in practice as well. That's exactly the kind of player you see deployed as the point man in 50%+ of GSTL games (statistics supplied by: my gut).

We haven't heard much from asd in a while now, so it will be interesting to see how he plays in his first GomTV appearance in months. I wish I could say more, but asd just hasn't given us much to get excited about for a while now.


Key Players

StartaleQ: The guys in the limelight

Startale's team name is apt; they happen to have a lot of stars. The trouble is, they don't always play like stars.

Bomber and Squirtle have been the streaky-inconsistent sort of team league stars since the early days, and it has almost become a fact of life we've come to accept. However, in the case of PartinG, there's still room to hope he could become that solid player Startale needs, and as a result, room to be disappointed when he falls short. When PartinG came to prominence in individual leagues, he seemed to be the piece that would send Startale over the top as championship contenders. In reality, he's averaged less than one win per appearance in the GSTL, and Startale's success last season came in spite of his failures.

Since PartinG has only played one and a half seasons in the GSTL thus far, there's still a chance that he could become a better player for his team. Interestingly enough, his single best performance happened to be when the stakes were the highest, in the GSTL finals. Maybe he'll feel similarly motivated now that his team faces elimination.

FXOpen: Zergs, the guys in the shadows

In the past, you knew FXOpen was going to come at you with a line-up of Leenock, GuMiho, Oz, and Lucky, supported alternately by Choya or asd. Now that Oz has left the team, a spot has opened up for all the players who never got a chance last season. Last week, Tear managed to come up big by taking two games off TSL, the most of any FXOpen player that night. Whether it's Tear or someone else, FXO needs their lesser known guys to seize this opportunity and fill in for the team's slumping stars.

On that note, it's bizarre how Lucky and Leenock haven't enjoyed improved results at all after the controversial queen patch. Leenock's case is especially strange because ZvT was his best match-up even before the queen patch, yet his results are even worse somehow. With many other teams riding the Zerg gravy train this GSTL, FXOpen will have to hope their Zergs figure out how to cash in as well.


Prediction:

FXOpen are huge underdogs in this match. Given the preponderance of Zerg in this GSTL, I do admit there's a chance of Leenock, Lucky, and JKS finding a way to get five wins between themselves. But given the preponderance of overall skill in StartaleQ's roster, there's a way bigger chance that any combination of Startale players will secure the win for their team.

Whether you go purely by results or just by subjective judgment, StartaleQ has at least three or more players who I would say right now, are better than FXO's ace in Leenock. The cumulative strength of StartaleQ's roster is just way more powerful than FXO's, and FXO will need a minor miracle to prevail.

StartaleQ 5 – 3 FXOpen