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SSB-64 Mafia

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
June 28 2012 19:18 GMT
#59
Hydra account for HiroPro+strongandbig.
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
June 28 2012 21:02 GMT
#63
On June 29 2012 05:57 GreYMisT wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2012 04:18 Mister Saturn wrote:
Hydra account for HiroPro+strongandbig.


There will be no mister saturn items in this game


I'm not an item! I'm a person.
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 01 2012 23:10 GMT
#82
bah i already forgot to use my hydra.

+ Show Spoiler +

It doesn't look like we vote for stages beyond our initial selection, iGrok. So no endless Zebes


I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts on having the item area selections being randomly generated for everyone. The way I see it, if everyone just picks whatever area they feel like on their own, mafia has an advantage in the item grabbing as they know what their partner will pick and can thus pick different areas to maximize their chances.

And I know someone is going to bring up the point of "won't that easily expose mafia, so we should just let them do it". I don't think that's the case since not only are there six areas and only eight characters so the chances of areas having multiple people aren't all that high. So it'll be difficult to identify possible partnerships that way. Secondly, I think the item selection is fairly similar to a PYP number selection scenario (in terms of motivation). Mafia know that if they behave in the optimal way all the time, there's a chance of them being exposed. So they'll probably throw in a "both characters in the same area" at least once.

It'd be nice if someone could think of a good way to pick random numbers publicly though. The way that Palmar picked random player orderings might be nice, if someone has a web page and some scripting knowledge. So we could have just have like a script that runs at like 18:00 KST or some set time like that and outputs people randomly into item areas.


- Hiro
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 01 2012 23:17 GMT
#86
On July 02 2012 08:14 iGrok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2012 08:10 Mister Saturn wrote:
bah i already forgot to use my hydra.

+ Show Spoiler +

It doesn't look like we vote for stages beyond our initial selection, iGrok. So no endless Zebes


I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts on having the item area selections being randomly generated for everyone. The way I see it, if everyone just picks whatever area they feel like on their own, mafia has an advantage in the item grabbing as they know what their partner will pick and can thus pick different areas to maximize their chances.

And I know someone is going to bring up the point of "won't that easily expose mafia, so we should just let them do it". I don't think that's the case since not only are there six areas and only eight characters so the chances of areas having multiple people aren't all that high. So it'll be difficult to identify possible partnerships that way. Secondly, I think the item selection is fairly similar to a PYP number selection scenario (in terms of motivation). Mafia know that if they behave in the optimal way all the time, there's a chance of them being exposed. So they'll probably throw in a "both characters in the same area" at least once.

It'd be nice if someone could think of a good way to pick random numbers publicly though. The way that Palmar picked random player orderings might be nice, if someone has a web page and some scripting knowledge. So we could have just have like a script that runs at like 18:00 KST or some set time like that and outputs people randomly into item areas.


- Hiro

Honestly I'd be fine with going down the list and letting whoever is in that slot choose who goes where.


Hm, that could work too I guess. And it's a lot simpler to set up.
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 01 2012 23:19 GMT
#88
On July 02 2012 08:18 iGrok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2012 08:17 Mister Saturn wrote:
On July 02 2012 08:14 iGrok wrote:
On July 02 2012 08:10 Mister Saturn wrote:
bah i already forgot to use my hydra.

+ Show Spoiler +

It doesn't look like we vote for stages beyond our initial selection, iGrok. So no endless Zebes


I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts on having the item area selections being randomly generated for everyone. The way I see it, if everyone just picks whatever area they feel like on their own, mafia has an advantage in the item grabbing as they know what their partner will pick and can thus pick different areas to maximize their chances.

And I know someone is going to bring up the point of "won't that easily expose mafia, so we should just let them do it". I don't think that's the case since not only are there six areas and only eight characters so the chances of areas having multiple people aren't all that high. So it'll be difficult to identify possible partnerships that way. Secondly, I think the item selection is fairly similar to a PYP number selection scenario (in terms of motivation). Mafia know that if they behave in the optimal way all the time, there's a chance of them being exposed. So they'll probably throw in a "both characters in the same area" at least once.

It'd be nice if someone could think of a good way to pick random numbers publicly though. The way that Palmar picked random player orderings might be nice, if someone has a web page and some scripting knowledge. So we could have just have like a script that runs at like 18:00 KST or some set time like that and outputs people randomly into item areas.


- Hiro

Honestly I'd be fine with going down the list and letting whoever is in that slot choose who goes where.


Hm, that could work too I guess. And it's a lot simpler to set up.

Did you get your first pick?


I was the first pick

- Hiro
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 00:48 GMT
#94
I wouldn't describe it as controlling the item grab for town; it just removes the information advantage that scum would normally have.

Also I have a way to randomize the item picking order, if Toad will allow it.

I can use Randomizer to reorder the player list from the first page. Someone will give me a random time to do it at (the website lists the time up to the second under the randomization result). And I can then post a screenshot of it as the random order.

Am I allowed to post a screenshot like this?


- Hiro
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 01:02 GMT
#97
Sigh.

+ Show Spoiler +

On July 02 2012 10:01 HiroPro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2012 09:57 HomerunBat wrote:
Yea I phrased that wrong. The person who is picking people's spots will also be deciding which two locations (early on) have two people, and who those people are I assume?

-s0L


No I don't intend for the first person to pick for everyone else. What I am suggesting is that the random ordering picks the spots itself (using the site I linked above). So the first person would be top left, 2nd top mid, 3rd top right, and so on. The 7th and 8th would be in top left and top mid respectively.

- Hiro

mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 14:49 GMT
#112
Hi, no mass role claims. It should be pretty obvious why this is a bad idea with roleblockers, bus drivers, and kirby's copy ability. Not to mention the fact of night kills alone......

I am samus, so as far as I know grush told the truth. We'll have to wait for Cephiro.

So for items/stages, how about we do it nice and simple with iGrok's way. So for items, first person goes top left, 2nd person goes top middle, etc. 7th and 8th get top left/top middle respectively.

I had some concern initially about doing it this way since iGrok was the one who suggested it and he happened to be first on the list... But thinking about first is actually not a great spot since you get doubled up with someone else.

And stages, I guess we can just split it up, so 1st,2nd,3rd get left; 4th, 5th, 6th get middle, etc.

You're taking this all caps thing very seriously Toad,

- Hiro
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 14:53 GMT
#113
Oh wait, that's not the way iGrok suggested it. He was the guy who suggested having one person pick for everyone else. Well I like this way better. So let me know what you think. The deadline for those actions is not that far away, so we need everyone to decide on the plan quickly.

- Hiro
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 15:22 GMT
#115
I thought about the single tile thing a little before. I'm not really sure on whether or not town benefits from having everyone's overall stock reduced (It doesn't change the number of lynches that it takes to kill a person). The thing is no matter what we do there for picking stage spots, the chance of a single person getting hit is still the same (which isn't true for the item picks). I guess piling onto a single tile removes the chance that only town gets hit while mafia gets away safe, but it also removes the opposite scenario from play. Thinking about it a little more now, I don't think there's all that much difference that a plan will make for the stage spot selection.


On July 03 2012 00:03 kingdedede wrote:
Also gonna play devil's advocate on the item placement distribution: if we allow everybody to choose their own spot there's the possibility of making connections between scum (hard, of course, if scum plays it smart, but at least it's theoretically possible). If we use randomized lists, or the initial ordering by Toad, then that connection is out the window.


I talked about this in my first post. I don't think there's much we can analyze from that since not only are there six spots and only eight characters, but mafia is also well aware of the fact that if they play too optimally they could get exposed in the late game.

I think it's better to just remove the information advantage that mafia would normally possess.
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 17:47 GMT
#132
Oh, I didn't realize you wanted the people picking others to be only for the stage spots; I thought you were responding to my item idea. I'm fine with people picking stage choices for others. How do you intend to do it? Three people picking, each of them in a different spot, with each person picking 2 people to go in the other 2 slots? Well last person only picks 1, I guess.


There is something that I don't get here. iGrok was the very last person in the role picking order. If I was in that position I would have listed four characters, with the first couple being ones that I thought might already be taken. I would think that since iGrok was concerned about what roles are in the game, he would have done a similar thing. But iGrok hasn't said anything like that.... Did you really get your first pick, iGrok?

- Hiro
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 18:16 GMT
#136
Ok, that seems alright to me.
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 20:17 GMT
#179
+ Show Spoiler +

On July 03 2012 04:06 Risen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 03 2012 04:05 HomerunBat wrote:
On July 03 2012 04:04 Risen wrote:
On July 03 2012 04:02 iGrok wrote:
Item locations may change depending on how the rest of the day goes. If I get some reads I'll switch you in.


Also, I'm confused on this everyone go left thing for position. All of town potentially losing stock is way worse than the potential of mafia losing some stock, right?


I would say that stock for mafia is more valuable as they have less in total compared to town.


That's my gut reaction at first too, but then if you think about it once mafia guys are "found out" we're going to be throwing everything we have at them to kill them. This means they will die fast anyways. A lower total stock pool only hurts town.


This is bad logic... Mafia don't just announce themselves and then we kill them whenever we feel like it lol. We don't know who is mafia until they flip.

There's also a 2/3 chance that no one takes any damage at all. Not to mention the fact that the worst case scenario is not that everyone gets hit; the worst case scenario is that only town gets hit. And that's something that cannot happen if we do this.
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 20:19 GMT
#181
talismania volunteered sitting out, right?

- Hiro
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 20:21 GMT
#182
On July 03 2012 05:19 Risen wrote:
Then why isn't the game balanced around everyone having 2 stock? Or 1 stock? It's 3 stock for a reason.


Because it's super smash brothers. 3 stock is standard.

- Hiro
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 21:02 GMT
#194
mm, I'm curious. What made you pick Risen over grush to sit out items, iGrok? And why have talismania sit out? He may have volunteered, but thinking about it, if you didn't have any leaning scum reads (which is what it looks like, since you picked a non-poster and a volunteer), wouldn't it have been better to simply put two people who weren't doing anything?

- Hiro
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 21:06 GMT
#196
I know that; I want to hear iGrok's reasoning though. And that still doesn't explain my second question.

- Hiro
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 21:53 GMT
#210
I sent in my stage: left, item: top left.

Also, iGrok, is there a reason you didn't give any instructions for Marios? Did you want them to only use one spot?


On July 03 2012 06:51 Risen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 03 2012 06:44 kingdedede wrote:
Why do you think it's worse off for Town than Mafia, Risen? How would splitting up the players over the three spots help town? Either way, the chance of hitting town compared to scum is 'equal' in that the expected value doesn't change. The only thing that changes by changing spots is variance, and I haven't heard an argument that the higher variance leads to a better outcome for Town.


What's better, (potentially) all of town and mafia losing .5kp or only some of town and some of mafia (potentially for mafia, guaranteed for town) losing .5kp. I think option 2 is better for town. That's what it comes down to.


You'll have to explain this a little more to me. Because I don't see it.

- Hiro
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 22:02 GMT
#221
Spreading out everyone isn't hedging your bets.... You're just increasing the chance of having either a best-case scenario (only mafia get hit) and the worst-case (only town gets hit).
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 02 2012 22:04 GMT
#225
Could you answer this too, iGrok?

On July 03 2012 06:02 Mister Saturn wrote:
mm, I'm curious. What made you pick Risen over grush to sit out items, iGrok? And why have talismania sit out? He may have volunteered, but thinking about it, if you didn't have any leaning scum reads (which is what it looks like, since you picked a non-poster and a volunteer), wouldn't it have been better to simply put two people who weren't doing anything?

- Hiro


- Hiro
mmaaawww
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