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TL Mafia LV

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 21 2012 04:03 GMT
#66
/in

Gonna play a game rather than reading them for a change.
jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 25 2012 01:54 GMT
#123
On May 25 2012 06:52 GreYMisT wrote:
Only 4 slots remaining!

Remember this is a normal game, i encourage new players to sign up and try this out!

There's not even anyone intimidating in the playlist
jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 25 2012 19:18 GMT
#145
Tomorrow would be good. Midnight should be back for his regular night 1 case. Those have an exceptional hit rate

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 25 2012 23:08 GMT
#162
Will there be bodyguard(s) for the Mayor and Pardoner?

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 27 2012 02:49 GMT
#203
On May 27 2012 11:21 grush57 wrote:
Lemony fresh victory shall belong to us!

Claiming scum already?

So I was going to write a bunch of stuff about the criteria for electing mayors, but most of it is invalidated by the lack of nightkill protection, so just pick your favourite townie, I guess. Most important thing today is not to get sidetracked from scumhunting.

@VE: Do you promise not to get into any dumb fights with Toad if elected?

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 27 2012 03:20 GMT
#217
On May 27 2012 12:14 EchelonTee wrote:
A note: I will be slightly less active in this game then I have been in other town games I've played. This doesn't mean lurking at the standard I set in JubJub or Liar, but I won't be nearly as active as I was in MTG Mafia. I feel that it did not work the greatest in that game (game not finished, will not discuss further). Sure, this is probably a notch against me to be mayor, but I thought I would just put it out there.

Ok, that worries me a bit. I like your normal town style a lot, and so far I've had correct reads on you in all the games I've read. How exactly do you intend to change your style?

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 27 2012 03:32 GMT
#221
The usual rule with pardoner is that townies never pardon (because they'd be acting against the wishes of the majority, which is scummy) and scum only pardon at LYLO (because they'd get lynched for it), so it's not as useful as you might think. Ideally you give Pardoner to someone who's not likely to be around at the endgame.

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 27 2012 04:34 GMT
#233
If you're going to policy-lynch someone because they're useless and unreadable, why pick Grush over Kenpachi? I can see why some of you might be bitter from LIV, but at least give people the chance to improve.

@Grush: Making posts longer than one line would be a good start.

Also I'm not voting for Sinensis because I can't read him worth a damn.

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 27 2012 16:34 GMT
#336
On May 27 2012 23:52 Manason wrote:
I'm leaning more towards Mr. Wiggles at this point. He's the only one who has given complete sound reasoning on why he should be vice-leader. He promises to basically never use it. So if he does he's either just a bad townie, or scum. And he knows we'd lynch him. There is only one reason I can find not to trust him which is, Assuming he is scum he wants the position so a townie can't get it and so that closer to the endgame it can become the difference between a scum win and a townie win.

I can find a few reasons not to trust Wiggles:

1. He's running specifically for VP, which is half-assed. Scum tend to be half-assed.
2. He's made a huge fluffy I'm-a-sensible-guy mayor post and ignored everything in the thread apart from a somewhat redundant question towards BlazingHand.

On May 27 2012 23:52 Manason wrote:
Also I don't know if this has already been brought up, but assuming the mayor is a good townie I think it's reasonable to believe that they'll be killed the first night, after all why would scum want a good townie in a position with double votes, it can only be bad for them. So we should start looking a little bit more closely at our mayor candidates, because if any of them have brains they've already figured it out they'll be dead the first night unless they're scum of course.

Hmm. Are you actually new rather than a smurf?

The possibility of jailers makes it extremely risky for scum to hit a good townie with the mayor role, even with doublestacked KP.

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 27 2012 17:52 GMT
#347
I don't think the risks of electing a lyncher outweigh the value of electing a good town player. A lyncher may not even have a town target, and the chance of a genuine mayor contender rolling lyncher is low.

@Hyaach: What do you think about Kitaman voting for you? Or anything else, for that matter.

@Wiggles: What do you think about strongandbig? He's your main competitor on current form.

To the 60% of players who haven't posted at all yet, please do. No need to feel intimidated.

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 27 2012 19:23 GMT
#360
On May 28 2012 03:14 Forumite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2012 02:52 jaj22 wrote:
I don't think the risks of electing a lyncher outweigh the value of electing a good town player. A lyncher may not even have a town target, and the chance of a genuine mayor contender rolling lyncher is low.

It´s the other way around, those running for mayor have allready gotten their roles, and it´s likely that a lyncher has joined them because it´s good for a lyncher to become Mayor and immediately lynch his target, it´s MORE likely that one of the candidates is a lyncher.

Yes, but the prominent candidates were very likely to put in campaigns regardless. I'd have been surprised if BH, ET and VE hadn't put in a campaign, while strongandbig and Wiggles aren't even pushing for mayor. I suppose Toad is now a plausible lyncher, as his claim can't be "proved" until day 2. Would be a risky play though.

On May 28 2012 03:14 Forumite wrote:
The lynchers target is also likely town, because there are more town in the game.

Hmm. Lyncher/assassin targets will probably be flavour-related, and I suspect around half the named characters are town. Not sure about a lyncher with a scum target from a balance POV though, so you might be right for other reasons.

@Toad: I notice that your correct day 1 reads are all veterans. What do you think of the veterans so far in this game?

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 27 2012 19:49 GMT
#365
Because you want to do what's best for town, right?

Right?
jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 27 2012 22:39 GMT
#411
On May 28 2012 07:11 Toadesstern wrote:
Also I have a super secret I haven't told about my super awesome powers which works against manipulation.

Ugh, AC flashbacks.

I'm not really feeling this ET case. The main arcs seem to be:
1. Manipulating newbies by... promising to listen to them and not just dismiss them as useless? Fine by me. Wish everyone did that.
2. Overstating the importance of the elected roles. True, but I'm not sure how this is a scumtell.
3. Not having much in his filter apart from mayor-agenda. Yeah, because it's all from three hours into the game.

Not that ET's filter is squeaky clean (the part where he draws BH away from strongandbig is particularly interesting), but as you should have noticed, it's tough to campaign without doing anything suspicious.

On that note, I'd be surprised if scum made much of an attempt at the elections. Without bodyguards, the risk (from campaign scrutiny) surely outweighs the reward. I think only the most ballsy scum players would bother.

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 27 2012 22:55 GMT
#416
On May 28 2012 07:40 kitaman27 wrote:
Are you running for mayor jaj?

I'm not inclined to because I don't deal well with the spotlight, even as town. I lose sleep and then I can't think straight. If people really think the other mayor choices are bad then feel free to vote me.

My other concern is that the closest thing I have to a scum read so far is a guy with a two-line post. It's possible that scum aren't bothering to contribute, given that they have plenty of town no-shows to hide amongst.

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 28 2012 03:43 GMT
#471
So I just checked Grush's filter and he has 22 posts. Mostly one-liners, but a few half-decent posts in there too. His accusations are poorly-substantiated but fearless, and it looks like he's genuinely trying to help town. I think he'd be a terrible lynch.

Meanwhile Kenpachi has this:

On May 28 2012 08:57 Kenpachi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2012 08:52 Kenpachi wrote:
On May 28 2012 08:37 EchelonTee wrote:
Kenpachi, who do you think is scum?

who do i think is scum you ask?
ive been out today.
reading thread

too many paragraphs i dont want to read.


So ##FoS Sinensis

At this rate though I think I'm going to be recommending a lurker-lynch tomorrow. Should be close to a 50/50 shot if we actually manage to elect a town mayor. My current preference is Hyaach, for making one bad post and vanishing.

Also some posters (austinmcc and GambitX32 spring to mind) seem to think that one sensible-looking post is sufficient to get them clear of suspicion. It is not.

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 28 2012 03:55 GMT
#476
On May 28 2012 12:47 Pandain wrote:

You'll be replacing in soon enough, I suspect.

Oh yeah, I forgot Mattchew in my lurker list. No-one watches Starcraft all day, do they?

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 28 2012 17:56 GMT
#601
Thoughts on the night's cases:

strongandbig: Yeah, he half-arsed a pardoner campaign and hasn't done anything since. However, he's a conservative player and so I doubt he'd campaign as scum. His recent lack of posting may be because he's dispirited after screwing up his campaign and getting into that unnecessary scrap with BH. Probably an alien emotion to many people here.

He's normally a pretty easy read and makes decent cases as town, so hopefully he'll make some decent posts before the deadline.

Kitaman: I nearly jumped on his opening post, but I figured it was mostly trolling and trying to get Hyaach to post so I left it alone. His posts have looked fairly constructive to me so far.

Sinensis: So he's sticking with a totally irrational and anti-town position and ignoring everything that's actually happening in the game? Because he wants to lose two games in a row?

If he's scum he was daft not to change tactics once Grush started posting better (like BH did). If he's town, it's now insultingly bad play, which makes his complaint about Grush utterly hypocritical. Scum read, because the alternative is uglier.

Toad -> pardoner stuff: I think Toad is most likely a real town mason, but I think VE has a valid point about giving the pardoner role to the lyncher. If the lyncher survives to LYLO and their target isn't lynched, it makes sense for them to pardon to keep their win condition alive. Therefore if Toad is roleblockable, electing him to pardoner is likely to result in a day 2 shitstorm and a possible wasted lynch.

So we need to compare that risk to the risk that either Wiggles or ET are scum. ET just looks town to me, while Wiggles is clearly trying very hard. Almost too hard, but I probably shouldn't hold that against him. I think on balance we should just elect the two of them.

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 28 2012 18:49 GMT
#612
Yo papapanda:

On May 28 2012 06:44 papapanda wrote:
Grush+Sinensis+pppanda reunion lets kick ass(dont tell BH)!
Oh Hai Blazinghand.

When you posted this, Sinensis and BH were campaigning on the basis of lynching Grush. Any reason why you didn't think that was worth mentioning?

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 28 2012 19:47 GMT
#630
Hmm. Traitor Toad makes some sense.

I think the reasonable conclusion is that we a) don't elect Toad to anything and b) cut down discussion on him until day 2 at least. He might be near-confirmed town by then, and then we won't have to worry.

jaj22
Profile Joined September 2009
United Kingdom1376 Posts
May 28 2012 19:58 GMT
#635
ET: Zealos looks less scummy to me than usual. His scum play in MTG and that newbie game was screamingly obvious.

He goes into the general category of players with a handful of uncontroversial posts. I'd be surprised if there weren't scum in there.
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