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Pick Your Power: Redux

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
1 2 Next All
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 05 2012 19:09 GMT
#18
All vanilla = all analysis.
##Vote Nomination
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 08 2012 01:12 GMT
#77
/in! I am most excited.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 09 2012 20:05 GMT
#191
On May 10 2012 03:27 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Wait do we get the numbers people PM'ed as well? I actually want to see how other people picked.

Probably not, all the other PYP only show the order, not the numbers picked.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 14 2012 22:19 GMT
#382
What's to say #2 won't lie about 'picking' CPR and getting vanilla and choose a low priority role?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 14 2012 22:32 GMT
#384
Also I want to discuss the Copy Cat further - it says that it copies the first power role, and with the possibility that scum will take something like angry vig and shoot whoever to copy cat the janitor/cpr? Shouldn't it be a role up for denial solely because it has the capability to copy roles that are up for denial? (Unless I'm misunderstanding something here).
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 14 2012 22:44 GMT
#387
On May 15 2012 07:37 hiro protagonist wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2012 07:32 slOosh wrote:
Also I want to discuss the Copy Cat further - it says that it copies the first power role, and with the possibility that scum will take something like angry vig and shoot whoever to copy cat the janitor/cpr? Shouldn't it be a role up for denial solely because it has the capability to copy roles that are up for denial? (Unless I'm misunderstanding something here).

This is only a problem if the first lynch is vanilla. If thats the case, we simply have the med/jailkeeper protect the cpr/janitor overnight. copycat should not be a problem.

Im off to work, should be back later tonight.

Don't meds and jailors only have 1 KP protect each? As in, if mafia stack their mafia shot and use say a vig shot it will kill the person unless they have multiple protective roles on them. Or the angry vig who will blast through anything.

I guess witch could be a decent counter measure but I feel like it is a waste of its potential role power, which is getting a list of who is dying and being able to save one of them (higher chance of save because smaller pool of people to save from).

slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 14 2012 22:49 GMT
#389
On May 15 2012 07:39 Misder wrote:
I would rather have RB be used for a more useful purpose than just defending him(her)self. RB differs from CPR and Janitor in that those two roles cannot be used as town whereas RB can be.
Also, with your plan, we still cannot guarantee that the first person has CPR, which means that mafia can easily transfer it down to a scumbuddy without us knowing, which is extremely dangerous.
I would rather have vanilla townies than risk having mafia have 2 KP.

So say we guarantee that the roles are limited to the top 4 picks. I still don't see how it prevents mafia from blatantly using CPR - how will we be able to attribute night kills to specific roles?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 15 2012 22:23 GMT
#465
Hider is strong because you are saving yourself (unlike medic) and its infinite KP proof (unlike vet).
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 16 2012 04:25 GMT
#488
It adds spam without much in the way of good discussion - I think the draft order is more important and discussion of numbers is a red herring.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 16 2012 19:25 GMT
#572
Yes - I picked before all this risk business happened so my choice is untainted from WIFOM.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 17 2012 17:21 GMT
#677
I'm bringing up Paqman's response of Qatol because right now we need to scumhunt for D1 lynch and I think town is getting sidetracked by this discussion on the day vig (not to say that discussion on it is pointless, but I think too much focus is on it).

Now as for Paqman's responses, I've cut out key lines that I thought were pertinent (rather than quote whole thing and bold because it is a bulky post).
On May 17 2012 12:44 PaqMan wrote:
Am I honestly getting scolded for asking questions about plans that were discussed and settled on while I was absent?

Am I really getting scolded for thinking ahead?

-not scared, didn't have anything useful to contribute to plans that everyone already agreed on.
-I dont care? I lost the first mafia game I've played in over 6 months. My 2nd game is ongoing. And I'm definitely not down to start my 3rd with getting mislynched D1 because a vet pushed me for asking questions.

TL;DR I'm town and you're wrong.

If those are your only points for thinking I'm scum you need to do better than that.

This is a misrepresentation of Qatol's case. He makes out the accusation against him asking questions when in fact it is about the change in his posting style. And the defiant tone seems out of place - where does he find the confidence to basically taunt a vet into proving that he is scum? Unnatural.

##Vote: Paqman

slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 18 2012 02:31 GMT
#776
Why not just have all the townies (marv, sent, zel) claim what role they picked and see if any contradictions arise - it could be that they all chose CPR and top 3 are all townies (with risk playing solo ranger style) and janitor trickled down. Right now I'd say the thread has lost its focus and direction and people are going to end up with weaksauce voting allowing mafia to blend in some more.

Let's figure out this D1 lynch - PaqMan: yay or nay?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 18 2012 21:35 GMT
#936
Risk claims to pick non-janitor
Marv claims to pick mason
Sentinel claims to pick janitor, fail and get vt
zelblade claims to pick ***, fail and get vt

I'm guessing that zelblade probably picked risk's role. There is no sense in revealing what role risk has as it won't solve the problem. We know he didn't pick janitor because the thread is shot if this is just a ploy and I doubt he would think it good enough to keep going and letting town divebomb into nothingness.

I'm going with Sentinel as traitor for this one - it buys the 1 man down scum team time to regroup / plan. If sentinel is town then risk would be a liar but that conflicts with the zelblade clash unless he picked mason (which I doubt but hey, marv picked mason so anything goes).

Even if zelblade were to claim picking mason and the liar between risk and sentinel, risk's in-your-face I do what I want demeanor is more townlike than Sentinel's cautiousness (I'd be screaming my head off if I believed marv's mason claim which would mean risk picked janitor and lied about it)

##Vote [UoN]Sentinel
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 18 2012 22:18 GMT
#941
We are at 9/10 needed to lynch, so 1 more, perhaps 2 in the event of politician intervention to lynch Sentinel.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 19 2012 01:36 GMT
#964
Why would we shoot marv ...
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 19 2012 01:42 GMT
#966
Then risk is pretty much a liar huh?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 19 2012 18:17 GMT
#1047
Is there a particular reason why we go bottom up rather than top down?
Is it because the mafia are likely in the lower drafts so they have a harder time lying?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 20 2012 23:45 GMT
#1136
Mmm. Yes I haven't been particularly useful, mainly because I've just been sheeping Qatol.
I was gonna go after PaqMan after the Sentinel mess because it seemed like it was created as a distraction from the lynch, but it backfired for them and now there is only 1 scum and 1 Sk we have to deal with.

The most surprising thing for me is the lack of janitor use - I would presume that most KP would be fired night 1 and a janitor use night 1 would be of most effect as most people dead = most information denied, but I suppose there could have been anticipation of a witch / angry vig which would make night 2 a better time to use it.

I'll be back in a few hours to post more thoroughly.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 21 2012 04:46 GMT
#1144
Are people informed if they are saved (by witch or doctor)?

Sorry for the delayed post - (insert excuse).
I've reread the thread and here are my thoughts and conclusions (they might be a bit jumbled, its kinda late and I'm sleepy).

First are the scum team role picks combined with these posts by sentinel:
On May 17 2012 11:10 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 17 2012 10:27 Qatol wrote:
I would like to point out that this in no way confirms Mattchew. The main reason for this is because the Copy Cat just got the CPR Doctor role. If you got the role, claim it and don't use it. If nobody claims the role, I'm going to have to assume it went to an anti-town player.

Why would you kill one of your own just so the copycat can get the same role? Makes no sense.
On May 17 2012 23:26 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
I did not get janitor

I would say that if scum have a copycat there are prolly more scums in the lower end of the draft. If they were high up they'd rather go for guaranteed power roles like decon did or try to deny town of powers.

Either way I'd reckon the copycat is in the bottom ten of the draft.

Scum team drafted CPR doc, JOAT and two more roles, PaqMan bouncing and getting vanilla.
He could have bounced off CPR, vig, mason, JOAT, witch, or Bluelights / Misder's role. Mason and witch makes no sense as mafia roles imo, especially considering it is PaqMan (rather than an experienced mafia player who could utilize it). I'm guessing it was one of the three vigs.

So in the post that Sentinel makes (the one that starts a huge mess, averts attention from PaqMan but backfires and gets himself lynched), he is interested in bringing up the copycat role. However, during draft discussion, the only few people who bring up the copy cat are (sort of off the top of my head), Barundar and slOosh (me), with a few people discussing it, none of which are scum team members.

Thus I think that Sentinel is pushing the idea that scum team could have a copy cat and starts hypothesizing about that, which leads me to my conclusion that the 4th member is not a copy cat, but rather a janitor (or vanilla if the SK picked janitor for some reason). The scum team plan would revolve around just that - picking up lots of KP, shooting many people and covering up valuable info. I would say that it is very possible that the copy cat role is not even in the game (evidenced by lack of additional KP, scum or SK would be auto using it every round).

Second point: PaqMan voted risk after there were already 10 votes (majority requirement) on Sentinel, which leads me to believe that either scum team is very disorganized (which is possible) or that they did not plan on bussing him i.e. the final scum also voted for risk.

Third point: ....
Sorry guys its getting late and I gotta wrap this up, and I'll finish it tomorrow.
But it concludes with me saying Palmar and Sandroba are very suspicious.
Sandroba because his dealings with the sentinel fiasco are really weird (such bringing up why Palmar is pardoner and not bothering to comment on Sentinel until way later), his traitor idea, his no lynch stance, just really weird stuff.
Palmar is from process of elimination and vote analysis (i.e. he voted risk and everyone else looks more townie to me than him).

Guessing that Sandroba is the SK and Palmar is scum because of voting but the traitor role is possible for them I suppose.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
May 21 2012 16:48 GMT
#1167
On May 21 2012 14:37 Qatol wrote:
If the 4th member is a Janitor, how do they get around marvellosity's 50/50 chance of picking the role?

Mmm, forgot to consider that point. I guess this kind of speculation is just that unless we do some mass roleclaim / get more role confirmations. So I'll put that aside, for I guess its only 1 of many possible scum team role picks (I still think they chose with some idea of team synergy and the 2KP roles indicate the gist of their theme. Janitor was the first thought to pop up and I forgot to incorporate hindsight.)

Where does marvellosity's townie's claim that the politician role was taken in front of him (and the fact that nobody stepped up and claimed getting it, which is why we think it's in SK hands - mafia would have saved Sentinel with it) fit in?

Hmm. It's weird because I think I hold a different train of thought from some people in how the SK would play - I'm under the impression that SK want mafia members alive and will initially play pro-mafia because it gives him scapegoats to draw suspicion away from him and also aids in speeding up the game. However since the politician has not been claimed by town and is therefore in anti-town hands, it would make sense that perhaps PaqMan voted risk (up to 8, hoping that the SK would swing the vote to tie 9-9 (your vote count is off Qatol, I was confused at how we lynched with 9. You left out talismania).

I would agree that Barundar's comment on wanting to say less is indeed suspicious, because the first instinct I had when people started throwing out my name was to clear it. But then wouldn't scum want to do that? Or SK? So I'm confused. But that might be the intended effect of that play. We see that early on he does push the Mattchew could be scum idea, as well as the general theme of tying up roles / rolepicks, which does play into the SK motif.

Actually I now also want to discuss how the SK is probably playing to get an idea of what to look for. I'm thinking making people waste rolepicks on the denial plan as well as role powers to obsess on stopping cpr or whatever fits the bill. No doubt SK will act in the interests of keeping the last mafia alive for the help in KP, but wouldn't he have started doing that with the day-vig shot? That's what I would do, let mafia and town kill each other, helping the weaker side.
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