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Newbie Mini Mafia IV

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 25 2012 17:34 GMT
#84
/in as hydra of Cephiro & Gonzaw (replacing Cephiro's spot)
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 27 2012 01:50 GMT
#245
EBWOP:

Fuck, forgot to sign in with the correct account >_>


Here's the post again:

Didn't realise I joined this, thought Ceph would do it in the next game, lol

Anyways, I (gonzaw) shall be refered to as Hyde from now on (just to stay in character).


First of all, as much discussion as the no-lynch/lynch thing brings, it totally fucking sucks for finding scum.
Scum are less likely to say they want a NL, knowing EVERYBODY at TL HATES NLs. However, that's WIFOM, and pretty bad one at that since it's useless info basicly.

If you want my opinion then I always prefer lynches, unless I think the lynchee is town, in which case I prefer a NL, that's it.
About the soft-deadline: It may work for organizing town and avoiding last-minute switches, however it can draw away discussion and make us waste time, specially those 8-12 hours afterwards.
I'd just encourage townies NOT to last-switch votes, NO MATTER WHAT. If it means having a NL, then you keep your vote on the player it is, since last-minute bandwagons are the worst thing that can happen to us.

Second of all: What the fuck is wrong with fourface?
His posts are a pain in the ass to read, like seriously. Reminds me of gumshoe on SNMM7.
However, I don't see how the hell he can be scum. He's putting himself in the spotlight just by being so crazy and outspoken, specially with that crappy "trap" he made.


This makes me suspicious of the other ones basicly "falling for it" and "thinking" FF is scum, specially these:

On February 27 2012 09:37 Chocolate wrote:
wtf is going on fourface.. that's NOT how you should defend yourself at all. I could barely even tell what the point of that post was. From now on try to be concise with your posts,, i.e. don't post a bunch of useless fluff to make your post longer, because that is scummy.

I'm going to vote for you for the time being because that was really weird. If you sufficiently explain yourself and start to make sense I will unvote you.

@ghost you thought I was scummy because I voted on a lurker? I don't see anything wrong with that at all, please explain why you dislike it.



Wtf is this? You vote for him just because he made a weird post? You think he's scum because of it?

+ Show Spoiler +
On February 27 2012 06:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Alright, I have seen a few things already that I don't like and I'm ready to throw some suspicion around.

FourFace

I don't like that his first post places unwarranted suspicion on the hydras. He could argue that he was just putting pressure on them, but this post
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 20:58 FourFace wrote:
Either way i + Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315559#2

... to apply some pressure. But it's rather harmless

shows he doesn't quite understand how to put pressure on someone properly yet. I also don't like his lack of opinion on the soft deadline (thanks for the phrase slOosh). He says he is waiting for a thorough pro/con discussion. But a few of us had already provided pros, so in order to be ambivalent to the idea he must have had some cons in mind, but chooses not to post them.

Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 18:13 FourFace wrote:
1. I'm a total scrub at this game btw, playing my debut game with you hansom TL-ers. I like the theme, reminds me of Dexter's Lab when the bacteria took over his family and he had to get into the dodgeball suit and kick their asses.

2. I support the idea of lynching lurkers over lynching suspicious individuals although if someone starts spamming protocol and tips about how you should play, with the excuse of this being a newbie game, it kinda bothers me and I might vote against such a person. I recommend keeping things concise (with the exception of day 1, because we have to get to know each other, so posting stuff about voyager and whatnot is welcome since it's an indication of ones personality and a hint to what you can expect to hear from that person in the future.. even though gumshoe makes the impression of being a couple arrows short of a quiver I think he sets the right tone to be followed but for this first day only)
Generally I'd like people to post pros and cons when they want to implement a policy, for others to get an idea about weather the motives behind it are benevolent, malicious or incompetent in nature.
3. No no lynch policy pro/con (that i can think of): We got 10 for town and 4 scum, starting probabilities for lynching are 10 to 4 for an innocent townie and 4 to 10 for scum. After each day 1 townie gets shot by mafia so if another townie gets lynched it's 8 to 4 chances to lynch a townie after second day's vote and 4 to 8 chances of lynching scum and so forth. If someone could make a tree diagram real quickly listing probabilities for lynching either town or scum up until day 6 or so and multiply the probabilities that would be appreciated (without doctor or vigilante interference first to get a general idea).
Worst case scenario is lynching town every time for 2 consecutive days which means game over after day[3]. Best case would be lynching scum every time in which case town wins at the dawn of the fifth day with 6 town alive and 0 scum. So is it advisable to lynch the first day without any concrete evidence, i have no idea. Some math boy-genius figure it out, but all in all (considering detective, medics and player behavior) my gut tells me that the success-rate of a lynch is a curve which drops the first couple of days and reaches it's max at the LYLO point. We can either plan our build for that lategame where success-rate is high or we can gamble and lynch right away. Either way we need to know the math to get an idea of the setup and we don't have much time to figure out what is more important.. gathering information or action.
If we don't lynch then tomorrow will likely be 9 town to 4 at which point the worst scenario would be game over after day[4] with 5 town to 4 scum at the LYLO point on day[3], which sounds way better for me (gaining a day), but again this is without vigilante/medic/strategy which I think would inflate towns chances even more.


1. Lowering our expectations of him. Not a big deal, it is a newbie game.

2. Wants to lynch lurkers over suspicious people... unless they are posting advice and protocol. That is what would make a person suspicious enough to FourFace that they need to be voted over a lurker. Seems a bit off to me. At best this statement is wishy-washy and means nothing. At worse it reveals FourFace to have a skewed point of view.

3. This whole section says 1 thing of value. In a worst case scenario, a no-lynch on day1 gives us 1 more day of play before game over. The rest is pointing out the obvious, needless speculation, and trying to get others to jump on board with discussion about the setup. I think that the majority of this first post, while big, says almost nothing. Very suspicious.

(I'm taking the spoilers out of this next one)
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 20:58 FourFace wrote:
Pro no lynch on first day:
If we get to Day[2] with 2 townies missing .. how much info do you get from that? We need successful lynches for info to spring, Janaan. We are scientists, remember? We need a statistic edge and we'll build on it with what info comes along.
Vote for who you think benefits the town the least but refrain from lynching on the first day. You can gather info from who gets shot and whether you get saved or not. Plus on Day[2] the DT made check, or possibly even gets roleblocked, or saved, or shot by friendly fire.
And also if we lynch today we have no DT support because he hasn't made his check yet. I wouldn't know what to make out of the lynch info even if against all odds it turns out to be scum, as it could be one of their plans to sacrifice one of them by bandwagoning on his lynch and playing the "i would have tried to stop the lynch if i was scum" card all game long.
Sort of like a 5 pool, sacrifice drones for early aggression.

Con no lynch on first day:
One of the methods mafia use to win is stall so we need decimate their numbers quickly, 40 percent chance is acceptable, and we get to sack those who aren't active enough for town to collaborate successfully. I doubt that someone who posts conclusively will be a candidate so it's either lurker or BS spammer, either way no big asset to town so why not start right away.

Either way i http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315559#2
... to apply some pressure. But it's rather harmless



Pro - Not vote for who you think is scum, vote for who you think benefits the town the least.

Pro - FF seems to want to rely on blues to provide us with information. And speculation on who gets shot by scum tends to be WIFOM and useless. FF downplays the value of information gained by a lynch, up-plays the value of information gotten by a mafia hit. And goes back to blues for actually figuring the game out. This is a very wrong way of looking at the game.

Con - First off, it isn't a 40% chance, it is closer to a 29% chance. 4/14, not 4/10. Secondly, FF has wandered into random lynch territory instead of staying on pro/con for nolynch. I don't like it one bit.

Con - Just like in his pro-nolynch argument he is espousing voting for those who are least valuable to town, not scum. I italicized the statement in this section that I just hate and think betrays FF's attitude.

Show nested quote +
On February 27 2012 05:32 FourFace wrote:
I knew this was going to be fun. Had a LOL moment already; gumshoe says "Glad to have you on our side Alderaan ( : as for absolutes do you mind making decisions like that on a day to day basis?"
and Alderan is like: "What do you mean?"
Seriously wtf did you mean bro?

Anyway I am disapoint about Steveling not reading this thread from start to finish. If he would have realized what a hydra is (i didn't know either until i did read .. THE WHOLE .. thread from START 2 FINISH and my eyes are still functioning properly) (DO THIS NOW if you haven't already GOOGG we'll be waiting THANK YOU!)

Also certain circumstances made it so that I already have an idea of a case bait set up. The trap is up and running as we speak. At this point I can only say that there's an elephant in the room and whether people see it or not, mention it or not will give a mass check on all

@Janaan why JekyllAndHyde and not some other lurker? I don't know, lynch me


I asked you all to have a purpose in mind when you posted things. So what is the purpose of this post? From what I can see the purpose of this post is to foment conflict between gumshoe and Alderan, to undercut/place suspicion on Steveling, and to hint at a secret strategy. Also, wtf is with this statement, "I don't know, lynch me".

As to that secret strategy, I sure hope an integral part of it is letting us know that a trap is out there. Because if it isn't then all you have done is made people more afraid to post for fear of stepping into your trap. So if your trap doesn't depend on letting us know that it exists, you are acting very scummy.

##FOS: FourFace


Okay, so why does that make FF scum? That makes him a HORRIBLE townie, perhaps, but how the fuck does the no-lynch talk about "wanting to lynch the person least benefits town" makes him scum?

You know better than that DYH, why are you going after the "easy" target?
Or are you just "making a purposefully bad case to draw out reactions" like sloosh did last game?


On February 27 2012 07:49 Janaan wrote:
So FourFace, pretty much all I got out of that post was that you don't like Mafia guides, and that you're readily admitting that you lied when you told me there wasn't a reason why you voted for JekyllAndHyde. That's not really a very good start to defending yourself in my opinion.



You say that DYH and gumshoe made "good observations", that you were waiting for FF to defend himself, and now you say that wasn't a very good start to defending himself.

....so?


What do you think about it? Did that convince you he was scum or not?


On February 27 2012 07:50 ghost_403 wrote:
FourFace, I have no idea what game you're playing here. Your rants about insanity are baffling to me even on repeat readings. The only thing worse than scum in a game are townies that waste other peoples time while they are looking for scum. Instead, we have to identify and ignore your madness, which is insanely counter productive. As far as your trap, still don't know what you're going for there. Once the game starts, people have a responsibility to actually be playing. If they can't make it, they tell the GM and he replaces them; not a big deal.

My head still hurts.



So, do you think he's scum, or a "townie that wastes other people's time while they are looking for scum"?








@gumshoe:
What exactly makes you think his play mirrors Steve's from last game? Steve didn't talk crazy and didn't propose a "trap" as far as I remember.


I just advice all of you to just ignore what he says until he starts taking this game seriously.
I get the feeling he's town, and I wouldn't want an "easy misslynch" on D1.
So FF, for fucks sake stop trolling.



On February 26 2012 15:40 slOosh wrote:
Hi all. This will be my third newbie game.
Current thoughts so far:

I really like the idea of the soft deadline to avoid last minute switching, but I would only implement it day 1.
From personal experience (my 2nd game T.T), trying to enforce a soft deadline where everyone votes can be very detrimental to town as it has the possibility of stifling discussion / people rushing to make poorly built cases as Janaan mentioned.

As for this idea of lynching lurkers, how would it interact with the deadline?
Say we are at soft deadline and there are several lurkers. We vote one, and they happen to respond by producing good content and such. Then we would have to choose the next lurker, but that would bring us closer to the true deadline and thereby defeat the whole purpose. There isn't really a feasible way to choose lurkers with a comfortable cushion of time before the deadline.

I'd rather we just start keeping each other accountable and make sure everyone is contributing right away. I know that in the ObsQT from prior games people have pegged mafia day 1, and I think we should aim for that goal, pressuring inactives so that we don't have to worry about last minute lurker switches.


Okay sloosh. You were pretty active last game, why did you go lurking all of a sudden?



Also, I'm starting uni tomorrow so I won't be very active. Let's hope my counterpart can counteract that.

/Hyde
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 27 2012 19:10 GMT
#327
Got earlier from uni today, and considering Jekyll hasn't even contacted me, and I'm going back to uni later (in like 15 minutes >_> )and be back right before the deadline (I think), I'll try to do what I can now.



On February 27 2012 11:28 Qatol wrote:
Play nice please.

Also, I mentioned earlier that I don't like unnecessary cursing. The post above me is the kind of thing I was talking about. I can understand if it was a heated moment, but this isn't really one.



I'm just staying in-character, I'm not "heated up" or anything



On February 27 2012 11:37 DoYouHas wrote:
I'm so glad you are in this game Hyde :D,

You are absolutely right. There is a reason my case ended with a FOS instead of a vote. I had 3 things in mind when I made my case.

1. FF's early posting was either bad townie or scummy. I wanted to draw FF out and get a response from him in hopes of figuring out if he leans town or scum. My case wasn't conclusive on him as scum, but it was strong enough to warrant a response.

2. I wanted to move past the point of talking about policy and start getting into the real discussion. The best way of doing this is to give the town a solid piece of analysis to start playing with.

3. I wanted to gauge the responses of others to my case. (You kind of blew this for me when you posted, but that's ok.)

After his response I am leaning town for FF. Why? Because of the timestamps.

FF posted his fairly long response to me 66 minutes after I posted my case against him. If you look at his pre-game posts, FF was brand new and fairly oblivious to previous games (mentioning that he did not know the abbreviations and such). That tells me that it is VERY unlikely that he is playing off gumshoe's meta from last game for 2 reasons. I find it hard to believe that FF could have read my case, gone to a scumQT, asked for help, received it in the form of "play off gumshoe's meta", written up his post, and have it checked by that scumQT, and posted it in 66 minutes. It's possible, but super unlikely. That leaves me with the option that he read SNMM7 after this game started and decided on his own to play off gumshoe's meta, also super unlikely. So, to me, the craziness of his response is geniune. Which makes me lean town for him. For now.



Okay, fair enough.

I find that "ask the scum QT for tips on playing off gumshoe's meta" situation unlikely if he was scum. If he decided to act crazy and was scum, well, I'm sure he decided so from the getgo and not from being indecisive and being "convinced" by his scumbuddies. Nothing to do with timestamps.

However, I find it unlikely that he would decide to act like this from the get-go, I've never seen a noob scum act like this before, and until I do I'm gonna believe he's town.


On February 27 2012 13:02 Janaan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2012 10:50 JekyllAndHyde wrote:

On February 27 2012 07:49 Janaan wrote:
So FourFace, pretty much all I got out of that post was that you don't like Mafia guides, and that you're readily admitting that you lied when you told me there wasn't a reason why you voted for JekyllAndHyde. That's not really a very good start to defending yourself in my opinion.



You say that DYH and gumshoe made "good observations", that you were waiting for FF to defend himself, and now you say that wasn't a very good start to defending himself.

....so?


What do you think about it? Did that convince you he was scum or not?



At the moment, I'm leaning toward noob townie, much like my read on Gumshoe last game, but I'll probably keep a close watch on his posts. I was really hoping that FourFace would post again, maybe try to clarify his post at least, but he's still nowhere to be found.



You should have mentioned that before though, since it didn't seem you implied that at all.


On February 27 2012 13:02 slOosh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2012 10:50 JekyllAndHyde wrote:

On February 26 2012 15:40 slOosh wrote:
Hi all. This will be my third newbie game.
Current thoughts so far:

I really like the idea of the soft deadline to avoid last minute switching, but I would only implement it day 1.
From personal experience (my 2nd game T.T), trying to enforce a soft deadline where everyone votes can be very detrimental to town as it has the possibility of stifling discussion / people rushing to make poorly built cases as Janaan mentioned.

As for this idea of lynching lurkers, how would it interact with the deadline?
Say we are at soft deadline and there are several lurkers. We vote one, and they happen to respond by producing good content and such. Then we would have to choose the next lurker, but that would bring us closer to the true deadline and thereby defeat the whole purpose. There isn't really a feasible way to choose lurkers with a comfortable cushion of time before the deadline.

I'd rather we just start keeping each other accountable and make sure everyone is contributing right away. I know that in the ObsQT from prior games people have pegged mafia day 1, and I think we should aim for that goal, pressuring inactives so that we don't have to worry about last minute lurker switches.


Okay sloosh. You were pretty active last game, why did you go lurking all of a sudden?

/Hyde


I decided to take a slower approach to the game. Last game I came out guns blazing, argued with a townie and then tunneled another one hard, allowing mafia to lurk and get away with posting fluff. I really want to fight my tendencies to tunnel / confirmation bias so I'm taking it as slow as I can. But being mindful of a deadline, I'll try posting what I have progressively rather than waiting until the eleventh hour to post a big case. Hopefully this will quell paranoia and promote a healthy town atmosphere.



You do know that "not tunneling =/= not pushing who you think is scum", right?

You don't need to "tunnel" to make yourself heard, and you don't need to just stay under the radar and don't push your reads in the "fear" of "tunneling a townie".



@ghost, why are you ignoring all these cases and FoSes against you?




I'm not convinced about a ghost or Choco lynch though.
Like I said before, people's opinion on lynches is not an alignment tell to me, so this whole thing about ghost "being intent on lynching", or choco wanting to "lynch lurkers" doesn't convince me.

I still want their responses to me though.


Either way, we are achieving nothing this day. Nobody posts, nobody responds to the cases made against them (with the exception of Janaan). FF trolls and clogs up the thread, some people vote for lurkers, others for ghost/choco, and we are like 7 hours before the day ends.


However I prefer a Choco lynch rather than a ghost one, since he's contributed less and flew under the radar more. So I'm putting a placeholder vote on Chocolate, and hope Jekyll can come before the deadline and make a better assessment before the day ends.

##Vote: Chocolate.


P.S: People, please just ignore FourFace from now on.


/Hyde
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 28 2012 02:13 GMT
#437
Okay people I'm back.

First of all, I don't like this swing vote towards Steve. PEOPLE DON'T SWITCH VOTES AT THE LAST MINUTE.
Alderan, if you are town please don't. If there's a last minute switch to steve and he flips town, then this whole day would be worthless and it would be your fault, so just no.

I don't think lynching igabod is a good answer either.

Think about it, if igabod is "modkilled", then he'll be replaced. Hopefully his replacement will be active, and we can figure out if he's scum or not.
If there won't be a replacement, then igabod will be modkilled and flip anyways.

In 1, it's better to wait and analyse his replacement, in 2 he'll die anyway.


I don't really want a choco lynch right now to be honest either. Maybe it's gut feeling like I do in the obs qt all the time, but the tone of his post don't seem at all like the tone from his last game where he was scum. He strikes me as kind of spontaneous at the moment, so right now I'm not liking his lynch either.

Considering that, I don't think a NL is that bad. Specially since scum can decide who to switch for at the last minute (either an igabod lynch or a Choco lynch), which would be justified by us townies if we say "We need a lynch at all costs".

So no, let's NL, let's wait for replacements/modkills, and analyse this better next day/night.

Also, consider if both Choco/igabod are town, we lynch choco and igabod gets modkilled, it means we lose 2 townies right now, and may reach Day 2 MYLO if a vig shoots wrong.

Tomorrow/tonight, I say we pressure the replacements (or Steve/igabod if they are not replaced/modkilled), and the other hydra guy who didn't seem to post much at the time.


I don't like sloosh's attitude either, I think he would push his reads further if he was town, or at least contribute more.

@sloosh, what are your other thoughts on the game? Do you have any other reads other than on Chocolate?
Your vote on him was a "preliminary" one, so what will be your final vote?

As for ghost. I'm not convinced yet, but he could be scum (considering how my reads have been these past few games >_>). Either way he's not getting lynched right now, barring another last-minute switch, which I'm against.
I'd prefer to pressure other people though.


Anyways, I'm gonna eat, be here when the deadline hits and then go to sleep.
Shit I really don't have much time this game
Why do I have to start a game the day I start uni?


Also, dreamflower allowed me to delete/edit that last post I made in the gonzaw account, just a heads up

/Hyde
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 28 2012 02:20 GMT
#445
Before I forget:

##Unvote: Chocolate

I'll vote for someone not likely to be lynched, that way there can't be a fast vote-swing towards him:

##Vote:DoYouHas
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 28 2012 02:42 GMT
#461
On February 28 2012 11:22 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 28 2012 11:20 JekyllAndHyde wrote:
Before I forget:

##Unvote: Chocolate

I'll vote for someone not likely to be lynched, that way there can't be a fast vote-swing towards him:

##Vote:DoYouHas


da fuck? Why?



So chocolate doesn't get lynched today...?
If I keep my vote on Chocolate, then it's likely some people will change his vote towards him and get him lynched, which I specifically said I didn't want by this point.
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 28 2012 03:46 GMT
#480
Okay people, I'm going to sleep now, I think I have some free time tomorrow though, at least more than today.

As for the replacements, please read the thread carefully and give your thoughts as soon as possible.


/Hyde
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 28 2012 20:46 GMT
#533
Damn, reading filters/thread takes more time than I thought.

Anyways, I'll post my thoughts after night ends preferably


/Hyde
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 28 2012 21:08 GMT
#534
Hello everyone, at first I would like to place my apologies for not turning up earlier, I was afraid the game would start very quickly, and I knew my weekend would be busy. Unfortunately it turned out even busier than expected, as did Monday.

I am here now though, I skimmed through the read quickly and noticed we unfortunately went to a no-lynch on D1. I hope we'll get ourselves coordinated and lynch scum on D2.

I am now reading through the thread in-detail and will try to respond any questions that come up right after. This may take me two-three hours though, since when I play forum mafia, I take it seriously.

/Jekyll
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 28 2012 21:52 GMT
#540
Okay, I will try to wrap up my opinions as I'm reading through the thread.

I hope this does not confuse anyone, as I might be late to reply to many things, or to some that have already been adressed.

Firstly, my opinion about a fake deadline, I don't really like it.
Obviously everyone should have a fair idea of who they want to vote way before the lynch, but sometimes late changes may be needed. The time of the vote is not the most important thing, the reason of the vote is. But clearly we shouldn't all go around voting at the last minute.

Secondly, my opinion on lynching lurkers. If there is active scum that we have viable cases on, obviously we should push them first.
But a good point to note out is that if the lurkers are active enough to not get mod-killed and stay until endgame, it is much harder to make reads on them, which benefits the scum.

About making a case, I like to play with open cards myself, If anyone wants to know what I think, just ask.
Unless it's a very special situation, I am always ready to give my opinion and reads.

When you make cases or analysis, please concentrate on finding scum, not confirming town, unless you find it necessary for a specific reason.

If any townie feels like they found something pointing out to a player being scum, please raise the issue.
If it's not totally wishy-washy, it forces the accused person to defend himself, creating more discussion and more for us as town to go on from.

Also, if anyone at any point of the game accuses you of something, always defend yourself. If you do not, it can easily be considered as scum play, trying to move the attention to someone else.

Definitely pressure persons you are suspicious about, but do not tunnel. (Mindlessly blaming them for everything, just being 100% sure you are right.)
Every single one of us can be wrong, and no possibility should left out.

About metagaming: Please don't even try. We all have played 3 or less games, and that is not sufficient data to try to be clever and metagame someone.
This is just my opinion though.

As for my and Gonzaw's hydra: Due to both of us being mostly busy, we are going to have to play to some extent independently.
We do though to our best extent communicate with each other, so that we wouldn't confuse you by having two outright different opinions.
(Although this can happen, since humans do not always agree with each other.)

When you vote for someone, please provide a reason for it. I hate it when people vote for anyone just "for the heck of it".

Consider this as my "introduction post". Next up will be an analysis post, where I will provide my reads on EVERYONE.
This is so that every single one of you is up to my current opinions and are able to address them, as I have no reason to hide anything.

PS: I tried to bold the most important parts to make it easier for everyone.
PS2: A link to my only previous game, Newbie Mini Mafia II This is in case someone for any possible for reason wants to read my earlier play. I recommend that you do not try to metagame me based on this though, or you are just shooting yourself and possibly the town in the leg.

/Jekyll
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 29 2012 00:37 GMT
#559
Okay, I have finally caught up to the last post of the thread.

(Yeah, I did spend actually around 10 minutes if not more per page, I am serious when it comes to forum mafia.)

@ Alderan, I will be addressing your question in my analysis of everyone that will be posted as I finish reading everyone's filters individually.

I have got my hands on Hyde, and after talking about our opinions, we agreed to disagree in some things. So we will be posting our individual analysis, and even though it may confuse some of you that we do not agree in our reads, I think that 2 analysis on people is always more to go on from than 1.
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 29 2012 00:37 GMT
#560
EBWOP: Above post was made by yours truly, Jekyll.
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 29 2012 03:00 GMT
#568
Yeah I'm not really waiting for "Day 2" to post my reads, I'll post them right now at the deadline in case we die tonight, and so it doesn't influence scum's kills.

(PRE-EDIT: Apparently Jekyll decided to finally show up
We disagreed on some reads initially, and we didn't have much time to discuss it, so we are posting our reads separately (I made this post before he showed up), and hopefully try to come to an unanimous decision tomorrow if we are still alive)

(PRE-EDIT2: Jekyll told me to apologize that he didn't post yet, he was getting too tired (3 AM his time aprox), and he said he didn't want to post a half-hearted case and get nothing useful done. So he'll be most likely posting his reads after he wakes up and finishes them, if we are still alive after the night.)


Alderan:

He had me fooled first for making sense regarding FF, however considering how he made sense last game, but was still scum, I'm not taking that into account.

Here's a thing that makes me very suspicious of him:

On February 29 2012 03:54 Alderan wrote:
The K2hd Case

Why I found you suspicious the originally:
            - You had, prior to the very end of the day yesterday, exactly 1 productive post.
            - Your first point in said post was to say you didn't find FF very scummy.
            - Your second point was to find Ghost suspicious for the same thing that seemed to clear him for everyone else.
            - You soft agree with me about Chocolate.
            - You vote for a no lynch.

You had no strong convictions, made no original cases, you simply agreed with other people sentiments, and then chose to vote for a no-lynch, the ultimate middle of the road move.

Important note: Notice the fact that you voted for igadob is no where to be found in this reasoning. It's because that move is not inherently scummy, I found you and 3 others that were voting for igadob suspicious, which in turn lead me to believe that Chocolate could be scum. I had enough doubt however to choose to vote for either lynching the scummiest lurker in my mind, or no lynching.

Why I find you more suspicious:

            - Opening sentence of your second meaningful post is "Now for those who are starting to suspect me." What a bizzarre way to start a post, I've never heard a towny be worried about being "suspected"
            - The rest of his post has absolutely no substance.
            - Spends 3 paragraphs saying he's going to be inactive a lot.
            - Says he couldn't make an informed enough decision to switch votes to get a lynch because of his inactivity.
            - Touts being the first to "bring igadob up. He was a lurker, you didn't do anything special, you just voted for a lurker. Who tries to make their actions look more meaningful than they are? Scum.
            - Agrees with Sloosh and Zelblade that I look suspicious. Makes 1 extra point about the case that was inherently flawed. You state that I was giving Janaan a pass. I wasn't. In case you did not notice all of those people were lurking really hard, except for Janaan, who was posting enough, just not making a stand on anyone, and that's what I was asking him to do.


See what you guys think.



On February 29 2012 04:42 Alderan wrote:
Sloosh- The thing I find most concerning about Sloosh is his change of pace from last game. I know he's said that hes slowing down his posting to try and clean up his play but he has been extremely lurkish. He pushes Ghost pretty hard, but ironically enough it was his case against Ghost that made Ghost less suspicious for me. He ends up taking an extremely soft stance on the matter. He then makes a case against someone (me) who had a very similar train of though in terms of vote targets to himself. I'll have to wait to hear his response to my rebuttal to discern more probably but I do have my suspicions.


Gumshoe- I think we need a case from Gumshoe soon, he's been active but not assertive, he needs to post an original case rather thanto continue to just evaluate others' cases.


Janaan
- Extremely suspicious in my eyes, and after looking through his filter I think this case could be more suspicious than my k2hd case.

Here is a quote from "Chocolate, of all the people with cases against them seems the most scummy to me, and I can't quite put my finger on why exactly."

This quote sums up how he is playing to me. He's not making any original cases, he's not taking any hard stances. He defends with WIFOM constantly, and he has done nothing but agree with the most popular decision of the thread. Here is his filter.

I don't have time to make a complete case on him at the moment, about to have to run to class, but just read through this filter and you'll see how useless he has been to the town up to this point.

Will return with more after my classes, maybe even in class, if I'm feeling friskey.


Here he made a "case" against k2, but then completely disregards it in favour of Janaan.

Why would he do that? Why make a case and then completely disregard it?

Do you know what I think you are doing? You are creating potential "suspects" to get lynched on D2-D3-onwards.
You make all these players suspicious, so there's a bigger pool of suspects on later days to choose the lynch from. This ensures that town will be more confused as to who to lynch, and scum will get it easier to just choose a townie from those and push for his lynch (or have other townies do it for them).
So you make a "case" against k2, and then forget about it; but I'm sure you (or other scum) will eventually go back to it at some time to push k2's lynch if he's town.
Another option is him being scum and you're bussing him, which doesn't bring that much attention to him since you dropped off the case immediately.



I also don't agree with this "If you don't make a case you are suspicious" mentality. Don't you know how easy it is to make purposefully bad PBPA cases as scum?
It's also easy to paint other players suspicious for not doing so, when you are doing it so yourself (for instance, I spent all time making bad cases on townies when I was scum on Newbie II).
Which is something else I believe you are doing.


He also tried to get a last-minute switch towards Steveling at the end of D1.
He fully knows how those works, since he experienced one the last game he was in. He knows that 90% of the time they result in a misslynch and gives town no info whatsoever (check Newbie II for another example).

On February 29 2012 03:20 Alderan wrote:
Response to Sloosh's case:

As for the whole Chocolate/Ghost issue, I think it might be helpful for you to see the timeline of my thought process-

- Searching through filters looking for suspicious people.
- Read Chocolate's filter and think "Hey! All this stuff is absolutely bizarre, no ones made any concise cases yet, let's give it a shot".
- While making post, realize that the voting three times in the first 12 hours of the game is really weird for anyone, scum included, so after I posted the Chocolate post I went back to see why he would have done it.
- Make the "Ghost hypothetical" post prior to checking Ghost's filter.
- Went back to check his filter, realized he was actually not suspicious to me at this point because he is playing far too aggressively, which is why I told Sloosh I had a "hunch" about Ghost.
- Without posting that sentiment, I waited for Ghost to respond (just to get some more info), which he did more than adequately, and I dropped my suspicion of him.



Sorry, but this doesn't make any sense.
While making a case against choco, you realise that his voting pattern was "really weird for anyone, scum included", and you continued to make the case and post it?
What?


As for other players:

I still get the hunch Choco is town, I doubt he would change his scum play so drastically since the last game he played.
phagga and NightFury strike me as town as well, they made sense initially, and have an enthusiastic tone on their post, or at least trying to contribute.
DoYouHas is making sense as well and seems to try to contribute and help town atmosphere, although I don't agree with him being so intent to lynch igabod last day.
zelblade is town, mostly because I think FF was town. His first post rings well too.

Considering this, it reduces the amount of players for the remaining 3 scum, which is good.
The replacements for igabod/steve could be a possibility. ghost could very well be too, but I am not very confident in him being scum at the moment.
sloosh has upped his game since the start of the game, specially with his case against Alderan, so I'm not confident in him being scum now either.
As for gumshoe, k2, Janaan, they are null to me at the moment, but I'd be willing to bet that at least one of them is scum.


/Hyde
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 29 2012 03:09 GMT
#570
Why Janaan?

This doesn't make much sense, seems like that Valonis kill from NMM1.


Well, I posted my reads and it's getting late here, so I'm going to sleep.

/Hyde
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
February 29 2012 14:58 GMT
#613
Okay, just a quick thought before I go to uni:


1)If Alderan is scum, then him killing a player he was going to push later doesn't make any sense, since he's hindering scums ability to push for a misslynch on said player, and he's hindering his own survival too.

2)If Alderan is town and scum are trying to frame him, it doesn't make any sense either. If you are trying to frame someone as scum, you kill the players pressuring him, you don't kill the players he's pressuring. Also, it wouldn't be a very good job at framing him, if any townie can figure out (1) and know it doesn't make sense for Alderan to kill Janaan from a scum POV.

So this makes me think, that either this was very bad scum play, or Janaan was killed independantly of any effects caused on Alderan and other players' thoughts on him.

I'd just want to address this now so people (i.e gumshoe) don't dwell on this WIFOM for too much longer.

/Hyde
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
March 01 2012 04:08 GMT
#658
People, I don't like where this is going.

There are some PBPAs and bad cases thrown around, like this:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=314813&currentpage=33#644

I don't want a Choco nor a Night lynch.

Here is Choco's filter from Newbie Mafia III where he was scum:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=305805&user=135961&currentpage=2

Here is his filter from this game:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=314813&user=135961

He's posted as much this D1-N1-D2 as he did that whole game. There he lurked, never posted any reads, and when he posted some of his posts had completely different subjects that did nothing but make the intention of his post harder to read.

This game he's posting WAY more, and I get the feeling every post of his has an intention. He's playing somewhat more aggresively, I get how some of his posts may be fluff, but at least there is some thought put into them, not like the ones from Newbie III.


As for NightFury, the same applies from Chocolate. He's way too enthusiastic (sp?), just look at his post and the tone of them; it's not the tone of a scum trying to hide.
Actually, I'd put both of them, along with phagga with the most "townie" ones out there, at least judging by the way they are playing, are responding, and how they do so.



I also don't like how everybody is ignoring Alderan right now, and apart from an interaction between him and sloosh, he hasn't done anything today, hopefully waiting for the cases against him to be buried.
I specially think this since he never responded to my case.


Sorry, I may not be as active as I want, but I won't let you guys ignore me like I'm some useless townie.

I don't know where the hell Jekyll is either, was hoping to discuss with him before casting our vote, but I'll vote now and we can decide to change it later:



##Vote: Alderan
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
March 01 2012 04:09 GMT
#659
EBWOP:

/Hyde
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
March 02 2012 02:20 GMT
#777
On March 02 2012 03:11 Alderan wrote:
Hyde's case COMPLETELY revolved around me "dropping cases" which was clearly not the situation. I made two cases during the night period. That's it.

Please look objectively?
"we can't really bank on Alderan and k2hd posting satisfactorily".... There is only one way to take this sentence, regardless of the fluff you just posted above.

I understand we need more contributions, and we need to come to a come to consensus which is why I'm dropping this fight with you.

Your vote is on gumshoe, would you consider switching it to k2hd?


No, you made 4 players suspicious throughout the night:
-sloosh
-k2hd
-Janaan
-gumshoe

You made a case out of nowhere, and dropped it instantly, even on D2.





+ Show Spoiler +
On March 02 2012 02:50 Alderan wrote:
Ok guys, sorry about the absence, was going to take the afternoon off after my last post but then I got caught up with some GF shit all night last night.

Let's see what we got here:

I think I can address all of Sloosh and Jekyll's worries about me in one sentence:

A person can have more than one case active at a time, especially when the town is as inactive as this one.

Look, I posted a couple cases of people I find scummy at the end of the night/beginning of the day period to see what everyone thinks about the cases. Sloosh I used to think you were just playing poorly (while ridiculing my play nonetheless) but now I realize you are just misleading the town to cast suspicion on me.

Show nested quote +
Alderan puts up a case against k2hd, but as Hyde points out he drops case and suspects Janaan.


I did not drop anything, I'm suspicious of multiple people, ya know, because there are more than one scum.

Then you had this post:
Show nested quote +
On March 01 2012 15:52 slOosh wrote:
Alright, gotta sleep now. DYH I don't think right now holding off too much on your case is the best choice.

Right now our votes are spread between 4 suspects, and it is critical that we rally and focus on the best possible choice. It could be the case that more than 1 of them are mafia, but even then we should be unified in which one to lynch.

Thinking about our friends in alternate timezones, they may not be able to read your case and we can't really bank on Alderan and k2hd posting satisfactorily and I think in this situation a soft deadline would also be helpful.

But I trust your judgement - we need content from everyone and not just a few of us.
I just want us to be mindful of the situation that we are in.



What in the hell does that even mean? Again you continue to try to discredit my name, my cases, and my contributions for seemingly no reason. You already admit that you don't find me as suspicious as you originally did with your first case, so why the blatant cut down.




Here you go after sloosh, but one post later:

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 02 2012 03:01 Alderan wrote:
Now for who we should vote for....


K2hd has still not provided anything of value, under the guise of being a "noob town". Quite frankly I'm sick of responses like this. WE'RE ALL NOOBS.... hence the title of this game. Read filters and make cases. I say from this point forward we stop accepting responses like this.

His vote is currently on Ghost_403. His reasons:
- He thinks Chocolate is town.
- Ghost voted for Chocolate.
- Ghost made a slightly suspicious post (a point that I actually brought up initially)
- Therefore Ghost is scum.

What? It doesn't work like that.

##vote K2hd



You go back to voting k2?

This only causes confusion in the thread, you accuse someone while voting for someone else, create 2 different discussions (at least if k2 had addressed your case more thoroughly), where one doesn't even matter since you are not voting said player.


You made a very bad excuse for your case against choco, which I pointed out and you didn't even address.


On March 02 2012 06:05 Alderan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2012 04:53 DoYouHas wrote:
EBWOP: So should zelblade.



If our mafia last game was looking at the situation last night, we would have split the votes equally, definitely no more than 2 on the same person so as to cut losses if some shit hit the fan. I would have set it up where it was 2 maybe on Chocolate (assuming he's town), one on igadob (assuming he's town) and one on a random other.

I think the wrench in things when comparing it to last game is the orientation of igadob. Because he was a lurker, and didn't even vote, it's highly possible he was just a scum inactive player, and because we have heard next to nothing from his replacement there's still no way to tell. If this was the case they would make sure to save igadob's life if at all possible because a replacement was almost guaranteed. In this situation I would put one on igadob and the rest on his closest competitor, who at the time was Chocolate.

As scum, I would not have wanted any of our cases to have been one of the one's leading the lynch on the first day (I know mine against Dimmuklok was, but I've already said I did not want him to get lynched at all). So that being said everyone would post soft arguments and coast into the first night.

The Day 2 was about starting casting suspicion, but again, you don't want to come out real strong against someone and them flip green. So you come out hard against people, but not necessarily put a vote on, or actually try to get them lynched.
I did this with Sloosh last game, I believe he might be doing this to me now. There were two lurkers on our team through day 2, and I would expect that to be fairly similar here. Then we had semi active noob scum, Steveling, who reminds me of K2hd from this game.

It's all WIFOM'y, nothing solid, but I certainly keep how our scum played in the back of my mind, as this game does seem to be playing out similarly.





This is a completely irrelevant post. Why would scum imitate the scum play from SNM7?
Why try to analyse people assuming that scum would?
You conclude it's "WIFOMy" and "nothing solid"...then why post it?
You say "this game does seem to be playing out similarly", if you were townie, how could you say that if you don't know who scum is? If you wouldn't know who scum is, how would you know scum is playing like that game?
I don't see how this game is playing similar to that one, and I've never seen 2 mafia games that were alike, so I don't know why you even decided to dwell with that in this post.


Too bad your lynch won't happen.
People, I'd really like you guys to stop ignoring Alderan, and either keep pressuring him, or attack the cases against him head on if you think he's town.


I don't want a 2nd NL in a row at all. If we were to misslynch on D3, it would drive us to D4 LYLO instead of MYLO, which I would guess is arguably worse, we need to have a lynch today.
I don't really think gumshoe is scum, but considering his change of playstyle, and considering I think most of the players voting him are town, that's a possibility.

DYH, why are you so afraid to vote for gumshoe? Chocolate, do you want a NL? Why are you voting nttea who doesn't have any other votes on him/her?

The way I see it, Alderan isn't voting gumshoe, so I'm down with his lynch for now.
If gumshoe were to be town, then at least in my case it reduces the amount of possible suspects, which makes it easier to me to find the remaining scum.


#Vote: gumshoe
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
March 02 2012 02:20 GMT
#778
EBWOP:

/Hyde
JekyllAndHyde
Profile Joined February 2012
42 Posts
March 02 2012 03:01 GMT
#783
On March 02 2012 11:27 Chocolate wrote:
voting gum. have to go to bed. night all

Show nested quote +
Chocolate, do you want a NL? Why are you voting nttea who doesn't have any other votes on him/her?

I said I was going to vote for him. Don't make baseless accusations please.



Then what were you guys waiting for?
A last minute switch towards nttea?


On March 02 2012 11:46 DoYouHas wrote:
Alderan posted his speculation because I asked him to, Hyde. That entire section equally applies to me.

I think that there are similarities to how our day1 played out and how day1 played out in SNMM7. I think that that it is a pretty decent place to start thinking about how the scum are playing this game. Is it speculation? of course. But it was helpful when I was deciding how I was going to filter the game looking for scum. I wanted to know if Alderan agreed with me (he did), and I wanted to get his perspective.

You are not wrong posting that posting this kind of speculation is largely unhelpful to the game as a whole. However, it does worry me that you completely ignored my involvement in something you consider so questionable.

And I'm going to preempt those of you who are going to come down on me for soft/chainsaw defending Chocolate and Alderan. That is not my intent even if that is the result. It's not a big distinction, but a true one.



I saw that going through Alderan's filter, I didn't notice he was replying to you with that speculation.


Okay, I ask you the same question as well then DYH; if you are a townie, and don't know who scum is, how are you so sure this game is similar to SNMM7 and scum are acting by it?

Now that I've read it, you said it was because of a threat of a NL, and there being few cases or something on D1.
How does this alone convince you of something (IMO absurd) like scum copying the same play of a previous game?

Also, why do you want to raise discussion about analysis of earlier games if you agree yourself it is largely unhelpful as a whole?



/Hyde
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