Group B: FXOLeenock, oGsFin, oGsSuperNoVa, oGsMC


Match One: Leenock vs ForGG

Game One –

Notes and Comments:

The Runner-up Curse Continues: No one REALLY puts that much stock into jinxes. Even the "Every GSL final blows" jinx was conclusively put to rest in November and December of last year. But yikes, the second place curse is still going pretty strong. With the exception of Mvp (who else, but the strongest player in the world to resist the curse?) in GSL Oct-Nov, every single GSL runner-up had a significantly worse result in the following season. I hope you enjoyed your meteoric rise while it lasted, Leenock! Might as well learn to deal with defeat and disappointment while you're still young. And DRG, you better watch out.

The Room Grew: It was easier to make grandiose claims back in May, when the game wasn't even a year old and people kinda sucked. Now that people have actually devoted some serious time to playing the game... Let's say the Room has struck back against the Elephant.

It makes a lot of sense, though, as the Elephant's original claim was that it would be the superior work ethic of Brood War pros that would prove to be the difference, and not so much a gap in natural talent. As any industry gains steam and becomes more competitive, those who want to survive will surely up their effort. Though we hear rumors and stories about relatively lackadaisical practice regimens at certain pro-houses, we've seen precise execution and crisp play from top Code S pros that can only come from very dedicated practice.

The story's not over by any means, but it's an interesting turn in the plot. ForGG has been poached, but there's plenty to look forward to ahead. How will Hyun do in Code A? How about the BW pros who are supposedly switching in forty days' time? The nature of the Elephant might change, but it certainly won't die.

He's Back?: Personally, I'm happier about the return of the Protoss President than if zombie Abraham Lincoln rose from the dead and ran as the Republican candidate. His consistency has been worrisome as of late, and it's still a problem. But he's got his swagger back, and he's once more bullying himself to wins where he makes his opponents look foolish. Starcraft is just so better when a player with the charisma of MC is around. I'm glad he's back in winning form, even if he's not yet a GSL title contender.

It's fun when pro-gamers post in live report threads: Thanks Morrow and TT1 for your comments!

The group with IdrA.

Time for a bold prediction: Either EG.IdrA or FXOLucky will make it through this group.

Well, it would have been 100% bold a few months ago. However, with IMNesTea's mini-slump as of late, it's become a much more reasonable guess at the results of Group C. Nestea's always been relatively beatable at ZvT, but seeing the myth of his ZvZ invincibility dispelled played a large part in his mystique shattering as a whole. Not only did he lose to Leenock and BboongbbongPrime, but he lost to a foreigner as well (in Liquid`HayprO), the shame of all Korean shames. Now that Nestea is going up again two Zergs and his eternal bane in IMMvp, there's a very realistic chance that he will get his second glimpse of Code A.

Let's put it this way. Though Nestea's ZvZ aura is gone, Mvp being invincible TvZ still holds for now. That leaves three players coin flipping playing ZvZ for second place. Even if we give Nestea a considerable amount of past credit, it's not that outlandish to give either of the other guys a chance.

(To go off on a semi-related tangent, I wonder how much credit we're supposed to give players for their past performances. There's something of a fallacy in regular sports where we give declining veterans too much credit for their past prowess. Even if they're rubbish 90% of the time, everyone rushes to claim that they 'still have it' when they make a good play every once in a blue moon. I'm not claiming that Nestea is anywhere near that state yet, but our nostalgia for his prime performances is certainly clouding my ability to judge him in the very present. I feel that I'm either over, or under-compensating for his recent dip in form.)

This is all because of the aforementioned ZvMVP, one of the only remaining truly imba match-ups. Leenock and DongRaeGu, the absolute BEST ZvT players in the world are the only two that seem capable of challenging him in a multi-game series, and even those two are just barely breaking even. It's obvious that no one in this group stands a chance.

That said, I actually think IdrA is capable of taking what might appear to be a lead against Mvp in the Lair phase, and maybe even take a game if he's very precise about executing a lair-phase finishing attack. Foreigner Zergs can be really good at ZvT during that stage of the game, with all-around good macro and good Muta-ling-bane control as well. IdrA is one of the best among those foreigner Zergs.

However, much like his foreigner Zerg peers, IdrA always seems to fall apart once he reaches Hive, losing Brood Lords for free, losing his Infestors because they ran in together with his melee troops, and letting his Ultras run into terrible meat-grinder traps. Even if IdrA vastly improved that aspect of his game in Korea, Mvp is still the worst possible opponent. Mvp is simply a master of dragging his TvZ games out and making his Zerg opponent rue their lives as they wonder why their high-tech units are so worthless. Ragequit after a hail of snipes? I couldn't blame him.

I would love it if FXOLucky could pull off yet another couple of early game busts to score the upset, but I assume MVP will be prepared for that much. I don't deny that Lucky loves his busts in ZvT, but it's not like he's a one dimensional player. He can play a pretty good standard game as well, but he just doesn't mind picking up the easy win when he thinks his opponents are susceptible. Even then, he's not really on an Mvp level.

That brings us back to the ZvZ. Like I said before, the match-up is extremely volatile. So is the situation with the players. Nestea's historically the best but faltering lately. IdrA is up and down as well, but he actually looked very good against Nestea in the MLG Global Invitational, and could have even have won had he been a bit more decisive. Lucky practiced hard after his sweep against Stephano, but we've yet to see what kind of results that training yielded.

IdrA: "Zerg versus Terran is horribly imbalanced, but I coin-flipped correctly twice so I got through."

Lucky: "I prepared hard and did my best, so I think I got good results. I'll try to show you good games in the future."

Nestea: "It's tough to beat Mvp even in practice, but I'm always confident in my ZvZ. My only goal this season is to win another championship."

We could be reading any of these interviews at the end of the day.

Predictions

Mvp > Lucky
IdrA > Nestea
Mvp > IdrA
Lucky > Nestea
Lucky > IdrA

Mvp and Lucky advance.

Bold, yes. Confident, no.