EPTPurgatory Mafia
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
I am off from work tomorrow and I plan to catch up then. I just finished like 3 hours of reading for responsibility after getting home from work. Tomorrow afternoon I will catch up, post, and give my thoughts. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
##Vote: Erandorr | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On January 08 2012 09:36 Mr. Wiggles wrote: If two people switch to Erandorr, I'll hammer. Otherwise, move back onto risk. RoL, have you read "the last few pages" yet, it's been a half hour. I did and I cast my vote for Erandorr through the PM thing. Here is my reasoning. Switching from target A to target B is highly unlikely to ever hit a scum barring a DT check (This is more true in town/scum no third faction games, but still holds true here) no second bandwagon should gain momentum if its scum because the scum wouldn't let it happen. That being said, since my other post only about 6-7 pages have happened in game iirc and somehow risk.nuke attained a near majority which is insane. There is no way you are going to hit scum with that kind of rapid vote switch and in fact, that somewhat incriminates Erandorr because why else would a vote switch happen so rapidly? I read some of Risk's posts, admittedly not all, but he didn't seem too bad from my point of view, I don't know what the hell palmar is getting at. But I only inferred that from his posts on pages 34-36ish since I know we are nearing the deadline. Lastly, I read Blazinghand's analysis of Erandorr which seemed good, in the sense that I agree that Erandorr comes off as a disconcerned scum on D1. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=298603¤tpage=37#723 So I am keeping my vote on Erandorr, anyone on the risk.nuke lynch is suspect for jumping ship so hard, if erandorr flips scum then Palmar deserves a hard look. I also have a plan I have been considering, I plan on enlightening you all during the night phase assuming I can flesh out all the weird possibilities in this set up. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
For some reason, I am not thinking right now. I knew that lol, until today all I have been doing is reading and analyzing the set up and trying to figure out how valid some plan I have is. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
Intro This plan is essentially a mass role claim, but for a reason. Here is how I tend to implement it. Everyone claims not their role, but there color. We should have 4 blues (Townies with powers) and then 13 green (townie without power) on the off chance we end up with 5 blues they all claim their actual roles, when we see which roles have conflict we act from there. In this game one of the things heavily working against the town is status quo and the flow of information. The Angels have someone who kills without showing alignment while the Demons have the capacity to block the flip of a day lynch. What this plan does is preempts that decline in information because we know (roughly) all alignments before shit hits the fan. For example, if the Angels annihilate one of the blue power roles and it has never been claimed they can now safely claim the power role, basically just one of the detective type roles, but either way at that point they KNOW they are safe from a counter claim. In this scenario we put all the information out there knowing that it benefits us more than anyone else. The way I intend this to work is we all claim which forces the demons and angels into a bad position. No information is truly hidden, and we have just taken away 4 possibilities as candidate for scum either way. which means in a group of 15 players, 6 are now scum. that's a 40% chance of hitting scum through sheer guessing. The real benefit comes in how the mechanics interact. Mechanics This is the part that takes more to understand and was a lot more effort to think around (hopefully) all the possibilities. One of the biggest is obviously the Angelic Acolyte who gets an extra KP if he correctly guesses townie with dark powers, corrupted townie, or Demon when performing his stalk action. This only really affects a minority of townies, namely our blues and those minority who become corrupted. I think we can counter this by using banish amongst the claimed blues as a form of protection, and at the same time the Demon's will be given incentive to also use their transport as a form of protection and a dual threat. Firstly, it increases the chance of blocking an Angel KP which the Demons want to do, secondly it takes a blue power out of action for the night. This is fine because it still maintains our voting power in the day time. This causes there to only be a 50% success rate of the angels target into the blue circle. At the same time if the demons wish to corrupt a blue and jack their vote, they have a 66% chance of not hitting a jailor block. At the same time regular townies can be corrupted and they should claim. The longer the game draws out for the angels the more they NEED to kill corrupted townies/demons before the lynch against them is completely controlled. We can further increase this problem by having several people claim corrupt every day so the Angels can't be sure if they are going to use their extra KP effectively. The more dire the corrupted situation becomes the less they can focus on blues, and that gives us more confirmed townies with less players alive, further shrinking the town player pool narrowing down the angel/demons in the townie section of the group. So in the end the Demons would benefit highly by managing to corrupt our blues because it will be harder for Angels to kill them, but they also benefit by spreading out corruption and forcing the Angels to spread KP to avoid being overwhelmed as the game progresses. Discussion Here is where we discuss the pros/cons of the strategy. First I must clear something up. Speed is paramount to the success of this strategy. We need ALL the blue claims before the day post to ensure integrity because as soon as the first annihilation happens no claim can be trusted as without fault. There is a reason why semiclosed set ups are used in the huge majority of TL games. Knowing a role count makes the game progressively more broken and doesn't allow for any sort of fake claim. The annihilation (angel) and lynch hiding (demon) mechanics are clearly in place to allow for fake claims and a downswing in truly knowable information. We need to preempt this disadvantage and get information out in the public before it is untrustworthy. The downside to this plan? An increase in Angel KP and the decrease in blue role efficiency due to purgatory inflicting powers such as transport and banish. The pros I have pretty much outlined earlier. We know all roles, we end up with 4 confirmed townies and a narrowing of the scum field to a 40% chance. While our blues powers are semi neutralized their voting powers remain intact and unless the Demons want to chance it, incorruptible. This eliminates fake claims and drastically helps out with the decreasing information we will have throughout the game by knowing someones *likely* role before they die while having a confirmed group. Well that pretty much sums up my plan, all critiques are welcome but I think I covered pretty much all dynamics in the game that interact with it. So I claim townie. I have work in a little while but will more than happily defend my position in around 6-7 hours from this post, but if you can't glaring problems with it remember that as soon as the night phase ends this plan is over. The first day cycle is the only time where blue roles cannot be faked. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
He can't choose "townie". All town claims are safe until they claim corrupted. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
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RebirthOfLeGenD
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RebirthOfLeGenD
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RebirthOfLeGenD
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On January 09 2012 05:29 Spaackle wrote: @RofL While I agree that we need a plan for day 2, yours is not the one I would go with. Mass claiming like that will only paint a target on our blues for the scumteams. We'll lose our blue powers so fast that we'll get almost no use out of them, and where will we be then? This game isn't about blues, its about killing scum. Our blues can help with that, but any plan around them is stupid. I view them as confirmable voting power in this game which is MUCH more important than anything else. This game is about scumhunting, or blues are actually relatively weak. We have a jailer, two detectives that can only detect half the scum, so if they see someone scummy they may be right and not even get an answer, and a vigilante who can't kill half the scum but can shoot everyday. The vig is good, but rest of the power roles are relatively weak. The stronger element is their threat as a voting entity. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On January 09 2012 00:37 Tyrran wrote: What makes you think that angels will want to target the blues ? They are pretty much immune to blues, appart from the seer which will be desintegrated by the Angel of Death if he ever claim ( or i guess you could banish him, but then he would be pretty useless). So angel will just randomly shoot into townies, who knows, they migth even get a lucky shot on a demon, they migth also kill townies with dark power if they are not banished. Secondly you suppose that Demons are going to want to use their banish defensively. If they want to do this, then Demons will just banish the Demon Hunter ( which will NEVER EVER be targeted by angels, because he basically works for them). If they have corrupted someone, they can also banish the sage, and just enjoy they extra vote ! They are not going to banish someone in order to 'protect' him. Your plan gives HUGE information to both scum faction, and town actually gains very little from it. I dont like it. I think it favors Demons way too much ( because they can protect themself way more easely using their power knowing who the blues are), it also helps angels a bit ( they can kill the seer, they do not risk killing the demon hunter by mistake). But town is definitively the big loser in your plan. Once again, issues arise from illiteracy. As I said earlier, the blue roles NEVER claim their role, just their color. This prevents effective use of banishment/Transport and turns it into just a guessing game. The angels need to kill a confirmed voting black because they can't let four confirmed fucking townies sit around all game and hope for the best. Point two, demons won't know who the demon hunter is to properly banish him on top of which as stated earlier, he acts as a permanent town aligned voting block. The goal of the demons is to eventually control the vote, and that's how they win. They have no KP. The angels need to prevent a solid voting block from forming. I don't know what about this comes off as that complex. The scum teams get huge information regardless. They KNOW who they kill, this way we also know who they kill. This comes back to the annihilate mechanic. We open ourselves up to fakeclaims by not mass claiming before fake claims are possible. I don't think you get how a no flip mechanic works in this game, or in any game. When the mafia knows the information and we don't, we are at a disadvantage. When the Mafia can't fake claim, the town is at an advantage. When we confirm players as absolutely innocent, guess what? We win again. After today the mafia can safely fake claim and nothing is confirmable, my plan preempts this issue. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On January 09 2012 00:43 layabout wrote: RoL's plan: How do the angels react to the colour claim? They probably target blues as they wish to kill town blues They could hide amongst the blues for protection or the sea of greens for anonymity No, any more than 4 blue claims we have everyone claim and kill the contradictions. therefore how do demons react to this plan? they claim green to reduce the chance of being killed by angels they take a massive risk and claim blue increasing their chances of being killed No mafia has the opportunity to claim a blue role without instantly getting caught and killed. There is a counter claim, we will figure it out, and the scum faction loses a player and all we lose is 1 confirmed townie and a voting block in the worst case scenario for us, but regardless they lose the mafia. how do blues react? they claim blue and a no-flip death they claim green to minimise the chance of being killed by angels No blue will claim green because its fucking stupid. how do greens react? they claim green they claim blue so that angels kill them. Your last two thoughts assume we are playing with blithering retards. Townies shouldn't lie and there is no reason to. If any green claimed blue they would royally fuck us over, likewise if any blue sees people taking the plan seriously they NEED to claim or it fucks the whole thing up. They have to claim, and they have to claim before the angel of death performs his first kill. The demons will know if any of the blue claims are demons, therefore the rest of the blue are angels vanilla town or blue town.Similarly the angels will know if any of the blues are angels so the rest are demons blues or vainlla taon. Why wouldn't the scum team know who there own player is? That's like my mom not knowing who I am when shes sober. The latter half is just asusmign the townies and blues are being dicks and lying when its incredibly anti-town to do. Why would the demons want to protect non-demon claiming blue? after all they need to kill two blues as part of their win condition. A voting block threatens angels more than blues. But more importantly it doesn't matter. Its a double edged sword, they are shutting down blue powers which threaten them while also inadvertently protecting them which preserves there voting power. Why would the demons wish to corrupt a blue when then need to kill 2/4 town blue and when town blues are getting banished and demons only get corrupt every other night? Because their goal is to control voting power, and controlling voting power that the town and the angels will hesitate to kill is beneficial to them. How do we end up with 4 confirmed town? Especially if multiple vanilla's or scum claim blue. Because scum CC's result in scum death which is really bad for them. And Vanilla claiming would be really stupid and anti-town, therefore shouldn't happen. I think it is very likely that some people will not like this plan and that some town aligned people will fake-claim if it goes ahead, wouldn't this ruin the whole plan? Feasibly yes, but as soon as you guys realize its beneficial and the blues claim then every town aligned player should understand how detrimental lying is and therefore not do it. If no vanilla town fake-claim then then angels will be killing a demon or blue every night, the only way to stop this is with the channeller. If the channeller dies and the demons do not protect blues town could lose all blues town could lose 4 blues in two nights, whilst that is an extreme scenario the plan is over reliant on the channeller +demon help AND we might not even know if the channeller is killed. It's called analysis. We have a smaller pool (-4 confirmed townies from suspects) to choose from and we can figure out the rest with skilled analysis. In the worst case scenario, it is possible that we could lose all the blues in two nights, but that still gives us AT LEAST one day of confirmed townies. If even one hit fails due to purgatory they are fucked. The angels have to maintain a status quo among Corrupted townies and eliminate demons, a blue circle should be a second priority for them. by day 3 in your perfect 4/4 blue dead scenario the demons have +3 corrupted townies and effectively control the lynch winning the game. If the Angels intend on winning they can't let that happen. Doesn't this plan give scum more information than it gives to town because they will know some of the fakers for certain? They know if someone is faking if they are faking it, and they will lose that player instantly or after taking one blue, either way a fair exchange. the more honest town is the better off the angels are. the less honest town is the less information town has but the better off they are in terms of living blues. it potentially put angels in a good position and demons in a manageable decision whilst it could put town in an okay-really bad position ... bad plan perhaps it can be adjusted but i think that currently it would do far more harm than good. You're wrong. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
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On January 09 2012 01:44 layabout wrote: I was just going to quote what you put in the one dated 12/15/11 04:23 does RoL typically suggest plans and does anybody have links to previous ones? I spent ages in risk.nukes filters yesterday and i don't have the time to do more today. When a set up is easily broken, yes. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=237560&user=41447¤tpage=All I contributed to this, I don't recall if I originally brought it up. | ||
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