EPTHAHA JUST KIDDING I LOVE THAT KID.
Responsibility Mafia!
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HAHA JUST KIDDING I LOVE THAT KID. | ||
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On December 20 2011 11:38 Chezinu wrote: One Letter... Two Families.. An innocent man and a princess between them all... Can the rival families come together for the love sake of two members? Or will there be a great separation.. Will you be able to uncover this mystery? Already did. You're less cryptic than usual. | ||
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No shit. Not only is the concept of the game surrounding the idea that poor play will be punished, but there's also the notion that we've got relatively few players. in the game. 5 to 15 or so. This means that best case scenario, we can win day 5 through lynches alone, but that's a rather long timeframe to close out a game. So poor play seems to be some form of game accelerant, and the 'poorer' the play, the less in our favor it seems to be. So! What do we do? Post with content and condense your points. Keep your short posts to yourself and clump them up to make substantive comments. I'd say that posts between 6 and 15 lines are large enough to be substantive, but short enough to be read. But that shit is obvious. There's a bigger question here, however, which is what we're going to do with the first vote. RNG is probably the worst possible idea; gives us next to zero information regarding how people argue and its practically an excuse for people to not post anything because there's no element of responsibility attached to it. Either way, we're going to want ideas down on the table asap. And not like dicks, either. Cut it out bum/prplhz. | ||
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On December 20 2011 18:35 Palmar wrote: There's plenty of things that can be prodded already in the thread. Like what, exactly? Also, please don't post one liners. They inflate the thread size and make it tedious to read through content later. RE: RNG RNG doesn't force people to make a move one way or another and provides less information regarding people's inclinations than having someone pick a metric for a day 1 play to be made. The "shoot the inactive" metric was the standard when games were substantially larger, people talked less, and the metric itself was generally not held onto, just used as a prod to get people talking. As far as I'm concerned, RNG just cedes the first day's information content unless someone with a particularly interesting role gets selected. Please tell me how a random target provides more information than one who we can pick? It seems like by definition that RNG eliminates at least one layer of information: the choice. And there's no real benefit to the tradeoff in terms of preventing someone from hiding their kill attempt: If someone wants to get someone in particular put under the gun, they can fake a RNG call to make them the presumed target. If there's anything pro-town about the RNG plan its that it removes any fear to assigning a presumption of lynch to start discussion off. I don't see why there isn't a better metric to use than 'none' for that purpose. And even then, it doesn't seem like the attempt actually fostered the discussion you're saying it would, but maybe that's because the current RNG specified target hasn't been around in the thread. Either way, it seems like an empty placeholder topic. The previous placeholder topic, inactivity, served a practical purpose. I fail to see what reliable benefit comes from this one. So, the obvious question becomes which metric SHOULD we use. This is the question that RNG ends up proposing because it runs on the assumption that a) A lynch is better than no-lynch (I agree, in general) and b) that discussion surrounding the RNG could lead to a better target. I agree with a), but think that b) implies that we focus ourselves on determining a characteristic which outperforms RNG. This is why I think the plan is stupid; because IT ISN'T ONE. I'm super exhausted, but I'll think up some criteria for a day 1 lynch tomorrow. RE: The hydra I have no idea what/who this is, but I think I happened across it twice reading the thread. Is this someone's nickname? I haven't kept up with the last few (months of) games, so hook a brother up. RE: Me Sleep time. Peace! RE: Post formatting This is a very handy format and will make it easier to zip through pages to find discussions on a certain topic. Feel free to use it. Not sure how well it'll work when quoted, though. | ||
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On December 21 2011 02:00 LSB wrote: So you are saying we should all role claim right now? You realize you *kinda* already did with your previous post, right? Again.... what's up with you and triggers.... Just because someone has a trigger doesn't mean they are mafia. That section in particular makes a statement about triggers, and in particular says that town has triggers in an affirmative manner. You state this directly. The odd thing is that your post is structured to make it look like speculation, but you made an affirmative statement. This wasn't "Its possible that town has triggers too" it was "town has triggers too". The reason why I said *kinda* is that Chez said (and I haven't gone to the OP post yet to confirm) that mafia know some of the town roles. If that's the case, they might also know about some town conditional roles and be able to claim that they exist with certainty. So you're either mafia or you have a triggered role. And onto different matters: RE: Hindered comment from BumatLarge Yep. That's a good way of putting it. I haven't played in a shitton of time and I have no idea who most of the players are or if they'd benefit from extensive day 1 analysis. I also don't know if any of these triggers would be set off by some kind of explaining, or how the day 1 meta works anymore. Given all those things I figured it would be smarter to start off slow. So, if you push my accelerant idea, it would mean that at least some of the triggers activate powers that kill people. That doesn't, however, mean that there isn't the possibility for other triggered abilities. That should be pretty obvious. This was also an implicit roleclaim on my part which should only have been obvious to people with triggers themselves. But then you asked me to push more on the point, and stated that you were sad that I hadn't. This leads me to believe that you also have a triggered role and all of the above was obvious to you, but that my explanation might activate your trigger, or that you wanted a claim out of me. And that's berry interesting because asides from chez claiming traitor, it seems like all the people who have put information about their role into the game implicitly or explicitly thusfar have triggers to their role. This means we're going to hit a situation wherein we're going to have fucking ugly dt and medic claims with triggers and shit to sort through. FUCK. | ||
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Foolishness made the safest possible accusation to get heat off himself because he was explicitly called out and knows I've never died day 1 (except maybe WaW?), and Palmar dodged my request for him to make a comment on making a better day 1 metric than RNG and hasn't contributed anything besides saying that RNG is good (which it isn't). Wouldn't be surprised if one is riding off the other's stupidity to crumb something for later or set up a trigger condition. | ||
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On December 21 2011 12:39 prplhz wrote: @VisceraEyes Uh, that might have come out wrong, I don't really condone voting for either Foolishness or Palmar right now. So why are you voting for Foolishness? I don't get why you think L has contributed a ton. His first post was generic advice. His second post didn't follow this generic advice, instead he rambles on about RNG for ages, concluding that it is bad even though it has evidently spurred discussion. His third post, he concludes that LSB is either red or blue then just leaves it there. In the second part of his post he displays excellent logic I think, but then he kinda outs bumatlarge as blue. Why would a town aligned player ever give his blue reads like this? @LSB You want lynch between Liquid`Sheth, VisceraEyes and me? Can you list the vets who get to freeload day1 if they want to? RE: My Blue Read. Why would I ever give a blue read like that? Because there are 6 people in this game that I consider substantially better than me at reading roles (its really never been my strong point), and given that 25% of the game or more is anti-town, the probability of anti-town having 1 or 2 of those people is excessively high. I suppose a better question would be "why would I be putting a blue player up on the 'medics please protect this guy' list and implicitly telling the rest to shut up about their roles for now", and I'm pretty sure you can answer that one on your own. As an aside, I think that your characterization of my posts is intentionally misleading. Please do not play broken telephone and parrot other people's points. If you have specific issues, go back to the source material and address them. Its very, very easy for someone to parrot and claim that the town had consensus by slightly shifting descriptors over a few pages. List of people that I think are better than me at reading roles for future reference: 1. Foolishness 4. kitaman27 6. SamuelLJackson 13. Chezinu 16. BloodyC0bbler 17. LSB Wrote this a while back and forgot to press send. Some of the more recent posts are interesting, but I've gotta get back to writing my term paper. | ||
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I've already thought it up. | ||
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On December 21 2011 17:15 chaoser wrote: What is it? RE: Metric I was hoping to be able to say it when I woke up, but the thread's been confirming how I thought the game would roll out since I went to sleep, so I want the trap to sit out there a bit more. Give it another hour and a bit. | ||
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Well, enough time's passed and the thread's still slow. You'll notice in my previous post that I spelled out 'crumb' with the first letters in my first line next to a comment about the thread speed because the speed of the thread is very telling. No doubt there are a bunch of people who are in finals (like me!) and no doubt there are a bunch of people who are busy doing Christmas shopping. And yet its still oddly quiet. So lets talk about why: Triggers. If this game does have an accelerant, which it seems overwhelmingly likely that it does, then some triggers toggle kill powers. Given the theme of the game, it seems as if this mechanism is a core defining feature of the format, which means that there are likely more than the standard 1-2 vig hits available. Since there's going to be lots of discussion about this, I'm going to refer to mafia kills as 'hits', lynches as lynches and vig kill abilities as 'shots'. If this is the case, then people have a substantial reason to feel terrified; the WaW games as well as bang bang mafia show that when there are a lot of people with guns, games become very mafia favored as townies shoot each other to death repeatedly and mafia wait out the bullet storm. Because of the relative slow speed of DT checks and other forms of solid evidence, there's reduced risk to attracting lynch attention compared to attracting crazed shooters. Given my previous note that all players who have made implicit roleclaims have done so via triggers, and due to the fact that Ace and Ver are behind this setup, there are probably more guns lying around than less. If that's the case, then everyone is going to be playing tight lipped, but in different ways. Trigger hitters are going to be attempting to bait other people into satisfying their hit requirements. Medics and DTs are going to be doing their best to avoid any form of negative rivalries. Greens are probably going to be the most outspoken townies insofar as role is divorced from personality, and reds are going to be exaggerated versions of the Medic/DT reticence to engage because their biggest fear is being shot, not being lynched. Mafia have 5 players including the traitor. Assuming they have 2 kp (which makes sense for a game of this size), they win assuming they evade being lynched on day 4 (D1:15:5, N1:14:5, D2:12:5, N2:11:5, D3  :5,N3:8:5,D4:6:5 lylo) Assuming mafia shoot the traitor or that we hang 1 mafia we end with D4:7:4, N4:6:4, D5:4:4, which means that we're still lylo on DAY FOUR even if we correctly lynch on day 3. Day 4 lylo assumes medics don't prot a target (they rarely do) and that we don't hit 2 correct lynches in a row. Day 1 has something silly like a 98% town lynch rate, which means that to lose because of lynches mafia needs to get caught on both days 2 and 3 which is absurd because its a joke to set up false leads off a planned day 2 lynch. Hence why we probably have a bunch of guns and why they're afraid of bullets and not rope. So, from the get go I'd eliminate most of the players who have been voting for others, those who are aggressively asking questions of others as potential targets for the day 1 lynch. Additionally, I'd put more suspicion on players who are overly apologetic at this stage in the game. That said, i wouldn't link suspicion to post count or length directly because there's an impetus from everyone to minimize their exposure to triggers. That said, voting is less of a town-tell than aggravating people; voting is important insofar as it establishes a rivalry. Ironically, while I'm writing this up, we get a sizable dollop of the 'make no waves' theory in the form of Liquid Sheth's most recent post with overt apology and an overwhelmingly conciliatory attitude. I'm somewhat more conflicted with respect to Palmar because he fit this profile to a T prior to me going to sleep last night, then he started contributing. I'm not sure if that's because people started singling him out as a bullshit one-line poster and actually voting for him on that basis, but if the above is correct he'd probably not have been willing to engage VE for that long as mafia, and consequently VE is probably town because he pushed through an overt warning of Palmar's regarding him becoming annoying and kept on him to the point of voting for him. VE is essentially the green/bluest person in the town in my eyes at the moment because of this. I'll go through the entire list of players and separate the players into groups based upon whether or not they're being evasive, but not right now. I have 4k words to write and I have 26 hours to do it, so I'm outta here for at least an hour and bit. Deal with it.gif RE: Hydra Query Short answer: I read a few of your older games while I was still actively following certain games and I did a quick search through your histories after someone explained what the fuck a hydra was to see how you had performed recently. Wasn't very extensive, though. Just was doing a relative power level check for the game's unknowns because I had been told that we'd have a bunch of good players, then I end up not knowing half of the people in here. | ||
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(Day 1 15 : 5, Night 1 14 : 5, Day 2 12 : 5, Night 2 11 : 5, Day 3 9 : 5, Night 3 8 : 5 Day 4 6 : 5 lylo) Assuming mafia shoot the traitor or that we hang 1 mafia we end with Day 4 7 : 4, Night 4 6 : 4, Day 5 4 : 4. The take home message is that this game blows chunks for us from a strict lynch-to-win perspective. | ||
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On December 22 2011 03:44 Palmar wrote: Just because I hate shit like that L I've played 25 games I think now on this site, 10 of those had mafia lynched on day one. That's 60% chance of a town lynch on day one, not 98%. That's entirely not the case in my experience, nor is it the case on mafiascum. Mafiascum has roughly an 80% VT D1 lynch rate, a 10% Goon D1 lynch rate, and a 10%blue lynch rate. Oddly enough, the prevalence of D1 goon lynches is often a planned gambit to protect the roleblocker and end the game that way. Given the 13/3 setup, given a random distribution of hits you'd assume that mafia would be killed approximately 20% of the time on day 1. That isn't the case. Mafia have easy outs on D1 which means barring any catastrophic play, their deaths are planned if they occur on D1. I actually just looked at your post history ordered by threads and checked your last 7-8 games back until couples therapy. A single game had a mafia D1 lynched. Mafia used it as a gambit in a small format. Which means either you're lying, or the 17-18 games before that had a 60% mafia D1 lynch rate despite your games fitting perfectly into the standard MS pattern of play. As far as D1 lynches go, I'm pretty down with going after a confirmed liar. ##Vote: Palmar But seriously, I need to go do work. Later. | ||
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Can you do me a favor and unjargon the names on that list? Because I've run through a number of games that you've been in like Election Mafia (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291720) that I can't see on your list. The games I saw by searching for your thread posts are the following: Election Mafia TL Mafia XLVIII Student Mafia (New/Newish players welcome) TL Mafia XLVII Mini Mafia X Steamship Liquidia (TL Mafia 46) Team Melee Mini Mafia - Couples Therapy I saw Dethy too, but it hasn't started? So, of the most recent games you've been a part of, as a frequent commentator, a member of a hydra, a host or otherwise, 6 town first lynches, 1 mafia first lynch. Yet here you are arguing that me essentially repeating your own recent experience is a reason to sling shit at me. I have no idea if what's in your profile is true, but given Election Mafia, I know that your list isn't complete. I also know that it ignores a bunch of other games that you've been involved with. Can't find out why there would be motivation for calling you on a blatant contradiction which falls squarely into my 'throw shit as quietly as possible' objective for mafia in my analysis? Its all right there: You start with a post about post quality. You then post one liners. You attack me for making a post partially about post quality. You attempt to play nice with your most ardent accuser for hours. You post content mostly when attacked. Your play is very dissimilar to your standard town play. Your first sustained conviction (if that's what this turns out to be) is as a chainsaw defense. And that's pretty much it. All of the above list can be found here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=-1&u=Palmar&gb=forum&d=create The seven point list can be very easily verfied using Palmar's filter here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384&user=87086 In your text L even concludes I'm probably not mafia. No, I said I'm conflicted, which means there's doubt about you. Why? Because the metric says you're pretty town-like, but only kinda. You were aggressive, yes, but not to the point of creating rivalries. You started off with a whole host of shit flinging early game, which is standard for mafia; accuse lots of people early, jump back to that suspicion later as needed. You did so in a manner in which the accusations were relatively low in threat level. You kept your posts short, posted with very little explanation to open yourself up for critique and largely ignored calls for more elaborate posts until you were specifically attacked by VE who made it pretty clear that you were rival material. But then like I said there are some substantive, constructive posts, like the one that Foolishness just mentioned, which edge into territory which mafia would not waltz into. Some of the vote was an attempt to prod you into taking an action. For starters, you only really post substantive content when you're threatened. The chainsaw defense made you look REALLY scum, but the talk with Foolishness makes you look pretty townie. If you believe that I've baited you into a response, you probably also think that I can shoot you during the night, which means that you'd NEED to kill me today if I had a triggered vig hit. If you were a mafia member, you'd probably also have someone else push this train forwards because most people in north america should be available to post right now. I think you're either mafia, a hatter or a DT looking to attract protection. Alternatively you've got some kind of cross vote trigger and you're a vig. | ||
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If I'm wrong or right doesn't however actually matter to the game at hand. If I said "Town always lynches mafia on day 1" I'm obviously lying, but that doesn't make me scum, and L knows this. Now, I happened to be telling the truth this time, as I proved, but really, that's irrelevant. RE: Irrelevance. It isn't irrelevant. Assume day 2 rolls around and you state "town always lynches mafia on day 1" in support of re-lynching after day 1 passed with a no-lynch verdict, when the reality is that town very RARELY lynches mafia on day 1. Does that statement seem just as innocuous now if the context implies that you're serious and have a motive behind the statement? No. This has been pretty much your only argument thusfar against me and it conceeds the point that there was a lie. So what's the motive and context behind this statement? I posted a large piece of analysis and you replied with a dismissive chaff post with a lie inside of it. The motive was to discredit my statement while not opening yourself to critique. The context is a slow thread and a near-bottom page position. If that's the case then Syllogism or Mr. Wiggles would be likely mafia buddies; post burying is a pretty standard way to avoid a piece of analysis which fucks your team without drawing attention to it. The alternative is that you're horrendous at this game and make anti-town posts, but are somehow lucky that this game's prevalence of pew pew pistols makes anti-town play somewhat less terrible on an individual level. (odd, that) | ||
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On December 22 2011 05:53 kitaman27 wrote: lol what you are you two even arguing about? How is the percentage of games that scum get lynched day one even relevant? Who cares what the percentages are on MS or how the last 20 games have gone? Even if it was really poor odds, you still try to find scum regardless. L, your Metric post is nice and all, but who exactly did you catch? It's not a very good trap if you don't mention anyone that has fallen for it. Foolishness, you seem more than willing to call certain people town, but who is scum? It's a lot easier to defend people, than to attack them. Sorry, got caught up with Palmar. Here's the list: 1. Foolishness -- Actively Hiding, but he's stuck his neck out a few times. Not sure yet. 2. RebirthOfLeGenD -- Quiet 3 .wherebugsgo -- Aggressive and Questioning. 4. kitaman27 -- Aggressive post analysis, but I'm not sure how long you had that liquid sheth picture around. Undecided. 5. syllogism -- Actively Hiding. Leaning towards red. 6. SamuelLJackson (sandroba/curu hybrid) -- I have no idea how to read hydra posts, but he has content posts + early vote. Greenish as far as I can tell. 7. Jackal58 -- Very short posts but lots of questions. Probably trigger hitter. 8. Liquid`Sheth -- BLARING WARNING SIGNS. 9. GMarshal -- Not enough information. Starts off quiet, moves to medium content posts. Early vote. Goes quiet again. Seems like a busy townie. 10. L -- This is me. I am super cool. 11. Mr. Wiggles -- Huge content filled posts. Aggressive voting after building a case. Lots of questions. Probably a trigger hitter. 12. Palmar -- Should be obvious that I am leaning towards mafia on this one. 13. Chezinu -- Proposes a HYPER aggressive roleclaim early, but no one bit. I assume he's town but maybe 20% potential for traitor based on the risk involved. 14. chaoser -- Lots of questions. Large analysis posts. Aggressive early vote on me. Probably another trigger hitter. 15. bumatlarge -- Huge content filled posts designed to spur discussion and an early vote. Very town. 16. BloodyC0bbler -- Not enough posts. I'd really prefer that he posted more and he's one of the reasons I waited. 17. LSB -- Probably the toughest call in the game asides from Palmar. His posts appear large but they're short replies to large quoted text. Additionally, he's been called out before for 'trying really hard to not piss people off' which is a warning light in metric land. He does, however, vote early, but his case isn't very strong. I lean red on him. 18. GGQ -- One substantive post. Same as BC. 19. prplhz -- Short avoidant posts early. RNGs, votes Viscera. Also has a very solid attack post on GMarshal. Aggressiveness indicates town. Post structure indicates busy. 20. VisceraEyes -- Super town. I wanted to put filter links on the names, but I have no idea how to do that quickly. Also not putting additional information regarding roles other than trigger hitters, because DANG BRO, THATS NOT HELPFUL. Also, everyone that's blue isn't blue because they're legit; its possible mafia has trigger hitters. Anyways, go through the list and see what you think. Anyways, I'm now at 22 hours left for 4k words in my term essay, so I will be taking off at the speed of light (meowth, that's right). I'll pop in in a few hours to see what's up, but other than that I can't spare much more time today. | ||
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Just finished my term paper. Will be catching up with current events when my body recovers. Which will be after 5 showers, dinner, some freshly brewed tea and a rousing bout of intercourse with a model from Holland. Cheerio chaps. | ||
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Alright, just got back from hours of crazy monkeysex. The night so far's been a gigantic, terrible cesspool as far as discussion quality goes. This is important: Compare page 35, a typical night page: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384¤tpage=35 With Page 17, a typical day page: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384¤tpage=17 I'm going to go back and write up a list of who pushed for who from day 1, because if night 1 is any indication, there's going to be a flood of shitty one liner posts and we're not going to be getting anywhere otherwise. RE: Daypost Just refreshed Oh, I was right about Palmar? Figures. Good lord I'm good at this game. Some notes: GM seems to have lied about his target in order to lessen the chance that his shot would be medic'd/intercepted/roleblocked/whatevered. His target was probably one of his greens to throw off suspicion, so he probably didn't shoot Jackal. Palmar's shot was claimed. This means GM either shot VisceraEyes or SamuelLJackson I'm gonna go back and look through his post list to see if he gave any indication of suspicion with respect to either of them. | ||
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I'm gonna go back and look through his post list to see if he gave any indication of suspicion with respect to either of them. RE: GM target. 5 people died. 1 was claimed to be a hit. 1 was GM. 3 remain. GM lied about RoL who he had listed as red, which means he didn't actually think RoL was red. The reds in GM's list are likely chaff. The remaining 3 are Jackal - Black Hydra - Green Visc - Green Since the list seems to have been cover for his shot due to the lie it would seem that he'd cloak his shot in green. This leaves Hydra and Visc. Anti-Hydra posts. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12841577 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12841591 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12844245 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12859517 Abrupt about face: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12859529 Single post besides his end game list involving Visc: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12862029 Only it isn't involving Visc. It's just a reply to a prod from Visc. GM indicates in his last post that his push against hydra was a fake: As much as my subconscious would like to believe he is mafia, the fact that my lolworthy argument about hydras got something like 4 votes on him, combined with his generally town seeming behavior This leads me to believe that he shot Visc for calling him out. | ||
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On December 23 2011 14:39 kitaman27 wrote: If that was the case, why in the world would GM not inform us who he really shot after the 12:00 deadline? He had around 20 minutes to share who he really would have shot, during a time which the scum team wouldn't be able to change their actions. Are you purposely trying to shift focus away from RoL or something? @RoL,did you receive any notification of receiving a hit? Why wouldn't he? Withholding the information until the last second is a hyper pro-town move. Mafia don't need any additional information and his list is perfectly legible when you recognize that he lied about the RoL shot. I mean, this isn't 100% certain, but if RoL WAS shot by GM, then it means that either: 1) GM lied about his role as a blue in a fucked up counter-roleclaim day 1. No. 2) GM was shot by someone. RoL was protected. That protection came up within that same 12:00 deadline that you're claiming makes the play odd strange. Alternatively a medic took a random 1 in 18 guess beforehand. 3) GM was roleblocked and shot by mafia. RoL is mafia. Someone else is missing a vig hit claim or mafia have 4(?) night hits. Note how each of these scenarios is bullshit. 4 mafia night kp is fucking broken as fuck. Even if you assume an SK AND that Palmar had a hit, the numbers are ridiculous. 2 mislynches and a single missed vig hit end the game under that meta, nevermind the TWO self-explosive vigs that we've encountered thusfar. Ver and Ace aren't THAT bad at balancing. | ||
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On December 23 2011 14:56 chaoser wrote: I don't understand. GM specifically said he shot RoL at exactly: There is no reason for him to lie at all. Why do you think he misrepresented his hit L? RE: Misrepresentation. Because he likely assumed that mafia would wait for his post because he called it out earlier. This forces any roleblock decision they have to the last minute, literally, of play. Also, see my other post. The hits don't add up unless people are withholding information regarding their shots. My analysis will change substantially if other people step up and claim they've hit people. Until that point you have a choice between: 1) He lied. and 2) World's most ridiculous chain of events occurred/Game is broken/He lied about something else. | ||
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