EPTElection Mafia
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
| ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
Anyhow, my analysis of his post indicates that it is a post both townie Radfield AND mafia Radfield would make. I would like to warn people not to jump to conclusions like that. They may be strong players, but that indicates nothing about their alignment. My take on the election issue would be to elect the strong players for day 1. Arc has a more than barebones campaign and also more posts than the rest of the vets who have stepped forward, so the rest need to step it up. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
Similarly, I believe we should impose a policy restriction on mayor that Radfield omitted in his mayor election post. If two people are within 2 or even 1 vote count of each other, I think mayor should not interfere and make the 2nd place suspect the lynch instead. Letting the mayor have essentially 3 votes that he can abuse from day 1 seems like a bad idea. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
Mayor is a more powerful role than Pardoner IMO. With Mayor, it counts as additional 2 scum members for LYLO purposes and it's a hidden timer. With Pardoner, one lynch gets postponed and pardoner outs himself if he makes a rubbish pardon. With endgame KP of 1-2, it is defintely not as powerful. In conclusion, the vet you feel as most townie/easier to read should be mayor. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
The reason I came up with that is because I skimmed through Radfield's play in LOTR mafia. He twirled the town around his fingers as scum. He could have only wrought more destruction if he had more votes and the license to use it, which he granted himself in his reply. What is concerning to me is that I only knew of this because LOTR mafia was linked in this very thread. Yet my attempt to start discussion on mayor powers was virtually ignored, despite Radfield's history. Something is fishy here. As for lynch candidates, there is no one that sticks out to me. For example, while zeks has posted some questionable stuff, it may be honest mistakes. I cannot tell but maybe the vets can differentiate between honest mistakes and scumslips. A lesson here would be appreciated. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
| ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
I am going to start first with the suspects towns are discussing and work down from there. Zeks: Has been the focus of town attention. Has kept up the activity and aquitted himself well in my eyes. Jitsu: Greymist made a case on him. I understand the point Grey was trying to make, that Jitsu seems wishywashy - but it is not good enough. Dropbear: Has made one scummy post. That wasn't enough for Arc to vote him, but he is also a lurker. Needs to defend himself ProfBadass: Made a post for election and disappeared. Well he is a vet, so I would give him more leeway. For now. Cwave: Another one that posts only for election and never seen again type MrZentor: On December 13 2011 12:00 MrZentor wrote: Because apparently one post isn't enough, here's my second one. :p Anyways, I think we should lynch zeks. He wants to kill the hydra, because it will be "dangerous for the town", but having the hydra only helps town. He is either extremely stupid or he is mafia. Either way, it's best to kill him. I already stated my view on who should be elected and voted for said person. Bad logic on the hydra. On December 13 2011 12:18 MrZentor wrote: We should lynch some lurkers to keep them active, but I don't think that will get us any mafia, because the mafia will end up shifting the vote to a non mafia lurker. I am just saying that given the current information, it would be best to lynch him. This could easily change with any new information or posts. A good 3rd post. I don't agree with deus that it clears him though. 1) There is a marked improvement in quality. 2) This is as he is parroting Radfield's opinion. Would like to hear more from him. nyczbrandon: Large post count of one liners. Most of it asks for stuff easily found in the topic. What stood out to me was this: On December 13 2011 10:55 prplhz wrote: I'm just gonna vote whoever you vote. Who are you voting? To avoid giving them excuse of "I don't know what to talk about", topic starters have been given. For example, evantrees at least has made a bit of effort at replying. nyczbrandon has dodged his topic starter and posted something irrelevant. Maybe you would like to state your opinions on who appears townie or mafia nyczbrandon? | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
While I noted down evantree and nyczbrandon being lurkerish earler in the day, we should definteily be trying for scum instead of lurkers day 1. Nothing about them convinces me that one lurker is more scummier than another. As such, I held off on placing my vote. I had believed/hoped I would be able to wake up in time to make a vote closer to the deadline. Unfortunately, Timezones are not very friendly to me. Well, it turns out I failed. I didn't have enough enough time to read the thread and make a definite conclusion. Hence, I forgot about the time and made a late vote just after the voting deadline closes. In the future, I will place a vote on someone to avoid a repeat of this situation. Some people were questioing about my late vote on spaackle. I was on the fence about spaackle. I had seen Radfield and ProfBadass push against him. I know he made a "slip". However, nothing else stood out as scummy enough. Sure, people pointed out holes in his analysis. Still, I felt his posts on the election was good. None of this RNG bullshit. After Arc withdrew/removed from the election, we should be trying to get a vet in. People were muddling the waters and arguing otherwise.It's almost like the previous day posts on why the mayor/pardoner roles are important was completely forgotten. They are useful for the night protection vs mafia. Speculating that mafia removed for whatever reason, that's WIFOM. Maybe mafia wanted suspicion to fall on all the other vets. Maybe mafia was hoping to get one of their own in office. Maybe mafia was just trying to cause chaos. Who knows? The only thing we can tell is mafia did not want Arc to be in office if the assumption mafia did it was correct. Now spaackle has turned up innocent, and a blue too. If I was to redo my lynch, would I lynch spaackle again? The answer is yes. Though I was uncertain, he was the best option at that time, better than MrZentor. For the information of those who were not there near voting deadline, the two leading votegetters were MrZentor and spaackle. MrZentor had "softclaimed" blue so to speak. That left us spaackle. We had to vote and lynch for information. Certainly, we took an "easy lynch" so to speak, but the risk was worth it if we managed to catch a scum. Though we failed, it is expected as day 1 mafia lynches are rare apparently. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
Look, I know we made a mistake. Still, this post says nothing except "I was so sure spaackle was townie and I was right" If another townie made this, what would you think of it? When you call people out town, you are automatically correct? Firstly, BOTH ProfBadass and Radfield agreed he was a good lynch. And while you said spaackle was town, it was a sentence throwaway that was easily missed and not justified. Radfield gave his reasoning so we switched away from MrZentor. Secondly, spaackle continued posting after you went to bed. He could and did post stuff that affected people's reads on him. I'm disappointed. This post would feel scummy coming from a vet if it wasn't for the fact I feel you are basically confirmed right now. On December 14 2011 18:28 Arctocod wrote: Not to mention it's fucking retarded from a setup point of view to have a real-time ability that can just be used after we're both gone to bed. We weren't even around to tell people who should be voted into office instead of us. We're lynching ProfessorBadass tomorrow. Who do you and Deus think should have been in office then? ProfessorBadass was the only vet that was online. I don't think the people who voted in ProfBadass were at fault. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
On December 14 2011 12:31 Radfield wrote: Yep, that seems to be my style these days  Day 1 is not my strong suit, but I can guarantee I will do better Day 2 I have plenty of time over the next few days.If I was scum, I would doublestack Arctocod tonight. I highly recommend all medics cover them, it leaves mafia free to snipe other players, but I think that is an OK trade-off. There is a chance that Arctocod removed themselves in order to buy town credit. I find this highly unlikely: 1. If Arctocod was scum, they would have removed me from office, as I am far more likely to find them out than any other player. 2. That would be a substantial waste of a very important role. We don't know what elections will be in the future, and some may be very beneficial for mafia to get. Using it now to buy a little town cred is a waste. 3. Mafia wants the elected roles filled with mafia. If they used the ability on themselves it simply allows a chance for a different townie to get elected. Originally I was 90% sure Arc was confirmed town. This post got me thinking a bit harder. Radfield's reasoning has a few holes imo. Pt 1: If they removed Radfield from office, what does it do but put place Radfield in the same position Arc is, a virtually confirmed townie? This would be the worst move scum Arc can do. Pt 2: Buying a little town cred? The evidence in the thread shouts otherwise. Arc is being treated as a virtually confirmed townie. No one is questioning. In fact, Radfield is the only one who even raised some late suspicions. People are trusting and sending Arc stuff like Jistu/Giygas. Arc has picked up on this and started acting with the authority of a confirmed townie with posts like this: On December 14 2011 22:30 Arctocod wrote: now on, you just do whatever we tell you to do. On December 14 2011 21:41 Arctocod wrote: prplhz, even in the very unlikely chance he's scum, he's at least devoted himself this game to protect me and syllo and agree with us a ton, so in the tiny, tiny chance he's scum, he cannot do any damage because he's forced to agree with us. Isn't the mayor/pardoner role supposed to protect vets from being killed instead of whoever agrees with you? Just because prplhz has agreed with Arc so far, doesn't mean prplhz will and must do so in the future on all issues. There is a call for all medics to be put on Arc. So now all our medics are being tied up. That's a huge concrete benefit. And the issue is it is THE perfectly logical outcome when I think about it. If Arc is truly town, we cannot risk Mafia doublestacking on him. There isn't any other options for our medics. Pt 3: The elected roles today are valuable for being unkillable. Mafia doesn't need to fear being night killed as much. In any case, Arc will enjoy the safety net of medics. While he loses an office today, he will be elected for the best offices in the future. Is there any doubt Arc is going to get his pick of offices tomorrow, that could actually prove more useful? Furthermore, as can be seen from thread itself, it confirms them and simultaneously places suspicion on the townie that is elected. In fact, town conversation can be directed towards said townie and away from other matters. Arc has let slip that he doesn't think too highly of the townies present, so a powerplay like this suddenly seems more plausible. That's all I have the energy for now, I will be back later. P.S Formatting is shit work zzz. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
For today, I think the credentials of Gig and Arc are much stronger than anyone else. In order to have something to discuss, we should discuss their backup candidates. I think this should be a rule that must be observed. There might be another townie with the same power, or mafia may have more than one shot. You cannot assume mafia will be restricted to the same oneshot restriction as townies. The obvious candidate would be a vet like deus, but meh. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
joke? joke question. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
On December 16 2011 08:44 GreYMisT wrote: Ok here are my top three at the moment 1, nyczbrandon: Filter link: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291720&user=138684 Notice in his posts how nothing constructive happens, almost everything is asking a question. He is very passive follows the majority for most of the day. He is also very careful to not take a stance on anything really, and only backs up other people, or makes side comments. at the moment I am much less sure on the ones below, have to keep reading. 2.Evantress http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291720&user=78429 Does a better job of trying to appear town than nycz, but most of his posts are empty, consider the following 2: Both of these really have no need to get posted, the second one in particular is just a list of the people who voted for who, something we all can get accsess to. Also he showed a lack of caring who got into office/the lynch day 1. executing a RNG on both initally, and after being told not to still showed some minor apathy for it. When I am reading Evantress's posts, im seeing a whole lot of nothing, disguised as something. 3. Cascades http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291720&user=53202 this post in particular turns me on: he said that this is a post both town and scum radfield can make...yes those are the 2 aleingments in the game. The goal of this post while reading it from a mafia perspective seem to be to seed distrust against rad, while preparing for the Arc withdrawl later. Oh, so you know for a fact there are only 2 alignments in the game? No third parties? I wonder how you came by that information. Two people can play this game. No seriously, how would you have wanted me to phrase that? Seed distrust? I'm saying it is a null read. In so far that I am warning people not to trust Radfield 100%... Yes, I suppose you can twist it to me seeding distrust. Indeed we should trust Radfield he is 100% townie after all. You KNOW. Sorry for being skeptical and trying to be helpful informing town. I think far more mafia-ish would be to not make the post in fear that "This post would look scummy" to scumhunters. Far more mafia-ish would be the fact that people let the impression that "Radfield is a townie from this post" stand uncorrected. You want mafia perspective? I give you mafia perspective. So is my mafia perspective right or your mafia perspective right. Good grief. This post srikes me as fishy as well, He says if he could repeat last night he would lynch spaakles again. wtf? the only purpose this serves to say is to try to defend your actions by appealing to the sense that you are a towine out crusading against what is wrong and illogical in the world. I see no town motive for this post as well. Those are my scum reads atm radfield, and i would like to see more posts out of them as they have been rather absenst this cycle. Good scumhunting by cherrypicking parts of my post. Read my entire post. Am I defending my actions and the lynch? Certainly, that's the POINT. That paragraph you picked out serves to reinforce my previous argument. People were asking for explanations. People were pointing fingers for the lynch. They bought up the list of people and threw accusations from there. Hell, my name was not even on there as I was late. Why did I bother? Because I believe this line of questioning is not useful by itself. Because I want to show that I believe the lynch was the right one at the time, and by extension, there is no need to criticize people on the bandwagon. I am communicating that the purpose of lynching is to find scum, and spaackles was our best, but flawed lead. Town must not be afraid of making "mistakes". Even if we fail to lynch right, we still obtain information. All of this talk on mafia motives make me weary. Don't think I didn't know that people can and are being given town reads because of said argument: "why would a mafia post something dumb like this, hence this post doesn't seem like it could have been by a mafia". I could have more easily gotten townie status by making some garbage posts, but I would rather win people over by the logic of my arguments. Anyhow, I suppose I could have constructed the argument better. I appreciate your effort, but please go read my posts in the context I made them next time. Your scum reads? Hey now, these are the people Arc said to analyze. This is what I have telling you guys all along. Vets say something and people just parrot them. The possibility that there is mafia among them is high. Don't just accept whatever they say. Don't blindly trust them. Question them. Spaackles may still be alive if Arc had explained why he feels townie instead of just a simple "He's town" that no one paid much attention to. Here's my thoughts on the vets. I feel focusing on the vets is crucial and more productive. If a vet says something that is illogical, he's most likely scum. If a townie says something that is illogical, you can't really tell if he is scum or he just doesn't know better. Anyhow, the vets have been just questioning people hoping to find a slip/"slip" and refusing to give out their own thoughts in detail. I will be very suspicious if any of them do not come up with cases at all. Radfield: Has been active and has good content in posts, being helpful. Based on posts alone, I think he is most likely of all the vets to be townie. Arc: Very good activity. Has to elaborate and give reasoning for most posts though. "Cos I say so" doesn't cut it. Deus: He used to post simple one-liners. That doesn't help us much. He has put in more effort in his posts since then though. ProfBad: Bursts of activity. While he was here, he was active in helping find scum. Needs to be more involved though so that we can get something done. Dropbear/bumatlarge: Bad activity. Only came out to respond when accused. That would be really suspicious if it wasn't for the fact he got replaced, so there's somewhat a reason for that activity. Neverthless, I will be watching his replacement closely. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
You can see right now why I was against a Profbadasslynch: Every other discussion stopped and Palmogism stops every other discussion about alternative lynchcandidates because they won't share their reads. They may be good at diverting between town and scum, but they obviously don't see the game as a whole. I am afraid we'll lose this if Curu flips town. ] Risk and Grey my dear friends. You vote Prof. Badass right now please. [/quote] Is this a trap? Why the contradiction? Nevertheless I will bite. Yes we will absolutely lose the game if ProfBad turns up town. I explained above.This sheeping has got to stop. We MUST see the case. I will just leave this here so that I don't have to reply to the "mafia just want to get ProfBad as pardoner" line of thought. It is long so no one bothered to read it, but I don't want to hear the simplistic reasoning ever again before you refute my points. On December 15 2011 04:04 cascades wrote: Originally I was 90% sure Arc was confirmed town. This post got me thinking a bit harder. Radfield's reasoning has a few holes imo. Pt 1: If they removed Radfield from office, what does it do but put place Radfield in the same position Arc is, a virtually confirmed townie? This would be the worst move scum Arc can do. Pt 2: Buying a little town cred? The evidence in the thread shouts otherwise. Arc is being treated as a virtually confirmed townie. No one is questioning. In fact, Radfield is the only one who even raised some late suspicions. People are trusting and sending Arc stuff like Jistu/Giygas. Arc has picked up on this and started acting with the authority of a confirmed townie with posts like this: Isn't the mayor/pardoner role supposed to protect vets from being killed instead of whoever agrees with you? Just because prplhz has agreed with Arc so far, doesn't mean prplhz will and must do so in the future on all issues. There is a call for all medics to be put on Arc. So now all our medics are being tied up. That's a huge concrete benefit. And the issue is it is THE perfectly logical outcome when I think about it. If Arc is truly town, we cannot risk Mafia doublestacking on him. There isn't any other options for our medics. Pt 3: The elected roles today are valuable for being unkillable. Mafia doesn't need to fear being night killed as much. In any case, Arc will enjoy the safety net of medics. While he loses an office today, he will be elected for the best offices in the future. Is there any doubt Arc is going to get his pick of offices tomorrow, that could actually prove more useful? Furthermore, as can be seen from thread itself, it confirms them and simultaneously places suspicion on the townie that is elected. In fact, town conversation can be directed towards said townie and away from other matters. Arc has let slip that he doesn't think too highly of the townies present, so a powerplay like this suddenly seems more plausible. That's all I have the energy for now, I will be back later. P.S Formatting is shit work zzz. I will wait for ProfBad to defend himself before making final judgement. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
And now we have yet another policy lynch based on the fact that this Erandorr vet is a joke that ragequits games when he gets mafia. And in fact he does this so often its a meta that every vet knows. Surreal. Why isn't he permabanned yet? I want a Erandorr ban if ProfBad turns out to be scum. What a joke. Banning Erandorr if ProfBad = scum? | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
As for ProfBad, I was waiting to see Arc's case which-may-or-may-not-come, and I was especially interested in seeing ProfBad's defence before making my conclusion about these two. We all knew what ProfBad did - he gave up and revealed himself as scum. Elsewhere, VE took out dropbear/bumatlarge. Rereading through their filters, both of them were pretty inactive. Dropbear especially only posted under pressure. Kind of disappointing how these vets treat mafia. It also makes me finally understand why there was a random one kill used against Arc. That was extremely dumb of mafia. Either you stack hits against Arc or not hit him at all. Counting on all medics to ignore our commands to all protect Arc doesn't make sense. I would be willing to bet some of the following "bad logic" townies are scum. They have been getting a free pass from the vets for being new, a stance I agree with. In light of the poor mafia logic, I heavily suspect nyczbrandon, zentor, evantrees, sheth, risk.nuke in that order. I agree that evantrees looks really bad Greymist, but I disagree with your logic once again. While your post does make sense, it seems to me bumatlarge could have targeted evantrees because he was an easy non mafia target. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
On December 19 2011 02:53 GreYMisT wrote: Alright so I'm still on my phone, but I'm going to make this as legible as possible. I wanted professor badass in office because of te same reason I wanted arcticod and radfield. At that time I had no reason to think he was scum, and he was the next on the list of people most likely to be shot that night. I do agree that there is at least one scum on the vote list for professor badass though, as it would be pretty hilarious if he got in to office with 0 scum support. I explained my reasoning earlier about the suggestion for MrZentor as secretary of defense. Remember at that time I thought it was a public rolecheck. I suggested Zentor because: A. He already claimed his role in thread, allowing us to check if he was Lyning or not. B. putting someone in who had already claimed would protect other blues from exposure C. I did not believe any powers were associated with this role. All right I am going to save Radfield some time here and answer. I believe you just honed in onto the two weakest points of Radfield. For the first reasoning, I don't believe it is a crucial point of Radfield's case. It's just suspicious, and rightfully so. Radfield confirm/deny? Same for the second reasoning, which was an afterthought of Radfield's. Radfield might be a bit hasty on pinning it as scummy play. I think most of us were laughing off the suggestion of a unlynchable only for day 1 claim, but if you truly believe it could be possible, a role check would be the only good way to confirm Zentor claim. As it stands, your defence needs more work. I would expect a better one when you are on your computer. As for Deus, although I can't speak for the rest of the town, rest assured I have an eye on him. I will wait for him to post his town list WITH REASONING though. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
Activity should pickup when filters are restored. You really miss it when it's gone. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
This is not important in light of his roleclaim though. If you are Medic ROLECLAIM NOW. Mafia cannot afford to trade 1 for 1 and lose a KP. This game is an easy town victory at this point. All town needs to do is to play safe. Barring any other counterclaims, vote Greymist for PC instead. PC is immune to night actions and cannot be roleblocked. Hence we get the use of Greymist medic powers. With this, we even have the option to WIFOM mafia, but again, we don't need to. It doesn't matter that Greymist is PC instead. He watches Radfield. He doesn't do it he gets lynched next day. | ||
|
cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
You are going to have to do better than that I am afraid. I don't even know what is behind town's high regard for you. Definitely artificial. All you have done so far is to jump on bandwagons, such as trying to claim credit for Greymist's lynch. You were 95% sure then. Good night. | ||
| ||
![[image loading]](http://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/52a5a_herman-cain1-550x418.jpg?w=550&h=418)
