Newbie Mini Mafia

On October 31 2011 07:11 Toadesstern wrote:


no the point is, that as a dt or medic you don't want to look like a dt or medic for mafia, because that would be an easy hint for them. So let's say we got 9 people and all of them are posting equally. In that case mafia will have a hard time figurering out who's a blue.
If we got 9 people, 6 of them are talking a lot and 3 are not, mafia will have a slight clue and have to decide if it's a guy who just isn't playing this game activ or if it's a guy who does not want to get killed for some reason.
I don't want to make a possible dt or medic stand out. I'm saying, that in my opinion posting nothing at all WILL make them stand out and vulnerable.
Just take into consideration when I actually made that post: About the time when 4 of us haven't made a post in this thread. Maybe it's 3 I don't know but you get the idea. I just wanted to make sure that there's nobody thinking "oh crap I have to do as little posts as possible as a dt to not give away my secret identy" because that's what came to my mind last game (which was my first game) and I was a dt. I had to change it pretty soon :p

Haven't read page 11, am reading right now and will maybe add something. This is just to clear up my "intentions" about that "make medics and dts" post.

On October 31 2011 07:50 Toadesstern wrote:


yeah but that's just what I said. We know each other a bit so I think both look perfectly fine. Zanfas does look a bit strange since he's posting so much but that's a good thing and I'm guessing he improved right now :p
Ciry is just like what he did last game and well ciry said something like that about me. So that is why I don't think a statement like "yeah I played last game with him and it kinda looks legit" is scummy and I got to disagree.

oh and yeah sry hyshes, will keep quoting from now on. I'm not used to such a fast thread :D
So this post was about harb and my last sentece was directed to hyshes. Those 2 before were more of a general post talking to everyone.

was directed to hyshes.
everything clear now?

On October 31 2011 07:53 IMABUNNEH wrote:


2 posts in almost 24 hours is almost as bad as 24 hours of nothing though, and as a reference, the people on both sides of the pond (myself and Toads for Europe, for example) have multiple posts. Have you been working all Sunday or something?

On October 31 2011 06:57 hyshes wrote:


You tend to say very little with very much words.. That seems to me like you are overcompensating for the lack of conclusive arguments.

On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote:
got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.

Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.

1) Both red
Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.

2) Both green
Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.

3) Skrammen green, I'm red
In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority.
That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.

4) I'm green, Skrammen is red
In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.


For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid).
I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked.
2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason).
Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1

I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red.