TL Mafia XLIII

On August 02 2011 11:07 Munk-E wrote:

But player x is protected in this case, and they wouldn't shoot player Y! They'd shoot player Z because shooting Y would give away the role and if x was the obvious one to protect, they'd assume he was protected.

That being said I highly doubt there are 2 medics anyways so if this situation does arise, I would be VERY suspicious of both of them.


As for the plan, I'm quite worried about it. We would have a confirmed townie, which could be nice IF he could manage to efficiently manage the entire game. It seems a bit risky if they're not very good, they might screw it up and reveal roles. Also, the medic would be tied to defending this one person the entire time no matter what. If someone shows they are DT or vigi, then the mafia will just shoot both if we haven't killed 2 by then. In the mean time, the mafia could just kill him outright, or pick 2 people they KNOW won't be protected, and it's entirely up to them. If they do kill him, then we have (likely) 2 dead townies, and be back to square 1! No confirmed townie, just a dead guy, and the guy he killed.I kind of think that people are hoping he does hit a Mafia, but I really don't see the logic in this plan. It's more likely he'll hit someone important on our team than a mafia.

In the end, i suppose it's entirely up to the dayvigi if the plan goes through, but it just seems highly illogical to me.

On August 03 2011 07:21 Munk-E wrote:
Below is some analysis of varpulis' posts i'll do more people later.




Here he says to not shoot day 1, unless you want to that is, then just reveal your plan forcing you to shoot anyways because you're gonna die, because you revealed your role. I don't see his opinion, because he keeps changing it in this post. at the beginning he says to not shoot, as always and it is especially important in this game, followed by him saying it's okay for dayvigs to shoot.
Furthermore he tells them to claim before shooting! Claiming is a death sentence, and it means they'd have to shoot to take people down with them, because they're gonna die anyway.

As an aside, does anyone know what his favorite role is?



So, here he fully supports the plan again despite his own extra important rule of not shooting day 1. He first says no shooting, then says maybe IF you make sure your going to get yourself killed, and finally now he's all for it!


Here he will eat his hat if his plan that he loves so much which goes against his extra important rule actually works...

this is after being asked why he likes the plan after he gave his own piece of evidence against it (above)! He gives no answer. Instead, he reverts to a compromise of his beloved plan. and no varpulis, it's a 20% chance. I'm not willing to take that risk, especially because it's roughly the same odds we'll hit a blue.





Here his is accusing redff for taking the position of the argument HE'S taking! (Maybe he lost track by now!) It seems like he's just trying to accuse someone for the sake of accusing!

Wishy-washy doesn't even begin to explain this. He just won't make up his mind! While I'm not sure this indicates him 100% as being scum, it is VERY suspicious. Unfortunately however, I don't think it's possible to brand him as scum from JUST this. but he's certainly quite possibly scum.

On August 04 2011 03:53 Munk-E wrote:
K here's mig's portfolio analyzed.



Killing for "Information" is just plain stupid. That's saying a random lynch is a good idea! 1 night of well organized night actions is not worth it at all. I have stated my ideas on this plan before, and to me it seems the only people for it would be scum, or, frankly, dumb people. The mafia would all claim scout, because it would be to risky to claim anything else. and after night 1, no one knows each other's roles again. He can't pm them to all the other blues, just IN CASE one of the mafia did claim a blue role. Enough about that though. He also says then to shoot at the smaller batch because there would be about 16 people which is less. So great, we take a 20% chance of hitting a mafia followed immediately by a MAXIMUM of a 25% chance. by the end of night 1 we'd be likely 4 townies down depending on our lynch.




Here mig votes for varp for being wishy washy. That might be fine except he's against him for saying the plan where we take a random shot without knowing is bad. obviously this is bad, and he uses this quote to accuse him? I don't see why he would unless he's trying to put pressure on him for being against this plan! It doesn't make sense to me, and frankly seems scummy.


He seems VERY eager to get everyone's opinion on everyone, he PMed me asking my opinion on chaos and varp, to which i responded blandly and generically. It seems to me like he is trying to find out who's most likely to be lynched in the future so he can defend them if necessary. I don't see why a townie would need to know everyone's opinion on everyone.




He seems to be trying to pressure G.G. here. Not to accuse him of potentially being scum, but to try to get his opinion on people. He seems like his only here to find out our opinions on each other! The only reasons I can think of for this would be to start a civil war between townies or try to manipulate votes. Both seem very scummy.




Maybe this I didn't read the rules, but I'm pretty sure high post count =/= town. This is your only defense so far and it's not legitimate at all. I don't see why activity is a "town" thing to do. and why lurking is a mafia thing really, especially if being a lurker makes them suspected as being mafia. (Meta, huh?) Anyway, i might vote for him depending on if i think lucidity is more scummy or not.

(P.S. Saying "If you think I am helping mafia feel free to lynch me." is more of an invitation than a defense.)

On August 04 2011 06:01 Munk-E wrote:


Yeah this is pretty important. Why on earth does he want soldiers to claim? It would FORCE them to sacrifice themselves for a random shot? He's so all over the plan, it makes me think that at first his scum buddies tried to endorse the plan, but when it was seen as bad, they backed off. He tried to make it continue in a way that couldn't POSSIBLY be beneficial and would help mafia a LOT. For some reason he seems to think activity is a reason that you're not scum! I never have and likely never will see the logic behind this. It seems like a scum's way of not having to post anything of value, yet still be considered a townie. For these reasons, i would like to

##vote Varpulis

On August 04 2011 06:33 Munk-E wrote:



-____-
you're voting for varp as well.

The reason I quoted lucid was because he mentioned how I forgot that post. Which I did. It's an important post. My analysis of him before I mention his wishy washyness and how he tried this once. The fact that he tried it again is big! It says that he really wants them to claim and it wasn't a stupid idea he had for a minute.

TBH, It would have been a toss up between varp and lucid for me, but I haven't done proper analysis of lucid, so voting for him would look VERY suspicious. I think both are scum anyway.

On August 05 2011 07:58 Munk-E wrote:
Lucidity analysis!



this first post is very VERY for the plan to the point that he immediately calls scum on people for it. They both later attacked him for this, and Redff even voted to lynch him. I think he is WAY to for the plan here without even considering the consequences. It seems scummy to me to pressure people that disagree with you.




Here DH is defending himself from lucidity's aggressiveness quite well, however he just continues to press the issue. He is still calling scum for having a different opinion here. He would give an arm and a leg for this plan it seems at this point.


Here he votes for redFF (But doesn't actually vote for him). I find it strange that he's THIS passionate this early on in the game! I mean seriously WTF? He is given A LOT of reasons why the plan is dumb, but he refuses to hear it! He just keeps accusing!





By this point, most people were against the plan.
Yeah...
I'm not sure how much I buy that defense of "Oops, klutzy me! I thought there'd be more medics!" as an excuse to completely change his mind from "This plan is so good that everyone against it is obviously scum" to. "This plan is stupid!" This is the scummiest post I think he's made. I mean it would be hard to make that transition, and it losing popularity requires you to if your against it so hard and you want to be in the majority. and why would you want to be in the majority so bad? If you're scum.




This post astonished me. At first i thought since he voted for varp after it was the bandwagony thing to do. However, if you look at the time, at the time of this post Varp only had 2 votes for him from a while ago. This post sort of STARTS the bandwagon on varp! I don't know if this was intentional or not, but WTF! Up until now I was sure lucidity was scum, but this makes me wonder!




Here he is completely against the plan now. He was so for it at first and now is completely against it. He even states that no one is for it anymore. His backing of the plan is directly proportional to it's overall popularity. He just wants to blend in, like a chameleon that works for the mafia.


In the end, I just don't know! He's VERY scummy with his bandwagon hopping when it comes to the plan, and sure he only voted varp after the bandwagon was rolling, but he was in second and might have done that to avoid being lynched, not to seem inconspicuous.if varp had flipped town, i would think he'd definitely be mafia, but he started a bandwagon on varp, it may be accidental for all i know and he was just trying to distance himself, but it seems strange that he would do this.


P.S. sorry about not talking at night i didn't know it was a rule.