EPTTL Mafia XLIII
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
On August 02 2011 10:25 Sevryn wrote: But mafia knows that player x probably isn't protected.... But player x is protected in this case, and they wouldn't shoot player Y! They'd shoot player Z because shooting Y would give away the role and if x was the obvious one to protect, they'd assume he was protected. That being said I highly doubt there are 2 medics anyways so if this situation does arise, I would be VERY suspicious of both of them. As for the plan, I'm quite worried about it. We would have a confirmed townie, which could be nice IF he could manage to efficiently manage the entire game. It seems a bit risky if they're not very good, they might screw it up and reveal roles. Also, the medic would be tied to defending this one person the entire time no matter what. If someone shows they are DT or vigi, then the mafia will just shoot both if we haven't killed 2 by then. In the mean time, the mafia could just kill him outright, or pick 2 people they KNOW won't be protected, and it's entirely up to them. If they do kill him, then we have (likely) 2 dead townies, and be back to square 1! No confirmed townie, just a dead guy, and the guy he killed.I kind of think that people are hoping he does hit a Mafia, but I really don't see the logic in this plan. It's more likely he'll hit someone important on our team than a mafia. In the end, i suppose it's entirely up to the dayvigi if the plan goes through, but it just seems highly illogical to me. | ||
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
Alright guys, it's game on. I'd like to start with a suggestion. It's very basic, but very vital. Vig's, be you day or night, holster your gun and try to ignore the itch of your trigger finger. This holds true in every game, but it's especially important in this one. Look at the role list, and see how much kp we potentially have in the game. Every vig role has two shots, half of them can shoot during the day. That's a lot of kp that will be a lot more useful later on. Dayvigs: If you must shoot, claim and let us discuss. If you're willing to shoot, make sure that you've got approval from the town. Gut shots are wrong as often as they're right. Hatters: You guys are special, because even if the scumbag mafia doesn't kill you, your bob-ombs will still go off. You also can't move them, so I don't think it's a smart idea to place them from the get go. Wait a day/night cycle, at least. It's for the good of everybody. With that said, let's get to the game and kill us some scum. As an aside, i'm currently very dissapointed that Kurumi didn't give me my favorite class, though I guess it can't be helped, he wasn't in the game anyways. Here he says to not shoot day 1, unless you want to that is, then just reveal your plan forcing you to shoot anyways because you're gonna die, because you revealed your role. I don't see his opinion, because he keeps changing it in this post. at the beginning he says to not shoot, as always and it is especially important in this game, followed by him saying it's okay for dayvigs to shoot. Furthermore he tells them to claim before shooting! Claiming is a death sentence, and it means they'd have to shoot to take people down with them, because they're gonna die anyway. As an aside, does anyone know what his favorite role is? My only real qualm about the plan is the possibility of 2 dead townies day 1, but I don't see a huge problem with setting up a town circle around a confirmed dayvig. People shouldn't be expecting shitloads of blues though. If we have a medic, which we might not, (21 players, remember) they will be tied up making sure the only confirmed player doesn't kick the bucket. Nothing should be shared in IRC that would not be shared in thread, by the way. If our confirmed town wants to direct blues or if people want to claim to him, do it in PMs, for the love of god, and don't start talking in thread or irc like you're a confirmed blue. The only one who should know is the confirmed townie. Information leaks kills blues in PM games. Should we use the plan, I suggest a very simple system: vote normally. Whoever has the most votes dies. So, here he fully supports the plan again despite his own extra important rule of not shooting day 1. He first says no shooting, then says maybe IF you make sure your going to get yourself killed, and finally now he's all for it! Anybody who is publicly known to be controlling the blues/leading the town is going to get shot eventually, especially if they've got kp. I'll eat my hat if we've got more than 1 medic in a 20 player game. Here he will eat his hat if his plan that he loves so much which goes against his extra important rule actually works... hmm, it's a good point actually. A serious question: Do you guys think we'll have a better chance of killing scum if we do this day 1? If we can kill scum it's worth it (durr) but otherwise I have a safer suggestion: Why don't we wait until there are only 2 mafia left. That way they can't doublestack and we don't lose a blue role night 1. this is after being asked why he likes the plan after he gave his own piece of evidence against it (above)! He gives no answer. Instead, he reverts to a compromise of his beloved plan. and no varpulis, it's a 20% chance. I'm not willing to take that risk, especially because it's roughly the same odds we'll hit a blue. I'm fairly sure that i'm not scum, unless I have a serious problem with reading pms. RedFF I'm not so sure on. I'm leaning scum because he started off his "no plan" campaign without evidence or an argument, and then just picked up DrH's and copied it, it seems. That said, I don't disagree with DrH. Our confirmed townie will be dead night 1, and we'll be back to square one, possibly with 2 dead townies. Again, the plan is really good, but only if we wait for mafia to not have enough kp to override the medic protect we will most likely be able to slap on the confirmed townie. To address Mig's accusation: In irc sandroba didn't explain his plan entirely. I read it as "double lynch day 1" period. That in itself is very bad. The good part of the plan is the confirmed townie. When he posted and explained that point, It sounded good. Then I realized that mafia can double stack and just kill the confirmed townie, it sounded bad again, until i figured out a solution. Is there a real reason that we need to use the plan right now? With patience, it will work better, i guarantee. Here his is accusing redff for taking the position of the argument HE'S taking! (Maybe he lost track by now!) It seems like he's just trying to accuse someone for the sake of accusing! Wishy-washy doesn't even begin to explain this. He just won't make up his mind! While I'm not sure this indicates him 100% as being scum, it is VERY suspicious. Unfortunately however, I don't think it's possible to brand him as scum from JUST this. but he's certainly quite possibly scum. | ||
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
I agree with san's plan. The main benefits of the double lynch are 1) extra information right away. 2) everyone can claim to a confirmed townie so that townie can organize the blues for n1. And forcing all the blues to claim to the day vig puts the mafia in a shitty situation. Either A) they can not claim at all to him and then he can direct the other vigs to just shoot into the much smaller pool of vanilla townies or B) they can risk trying to claim blue roles and outing themselves because the # of roles is suspicious, for example if 3 vets claimed. Killing for "Information" is just plain stupid. That's saying a random lynch is a good idea! 1 night of well organized night actions is not worth it at all. I have stated my ideas on this plan before, and to me it seems the only people for it would be scum, or, frankly, dumb people. The mafia would all claim scout, because it would be to risky to claim anything else. and after night 1, no one knows each other's roles again. He can't pm them to all the other blues, just IN CASE one of the mafia did claim a blue role. Enough about that though. He also says then to shoot at the smaller batch because there would be about 16 people which is less. So great, we take a 20% chance of hitting a mafia followed immediately by a MAXIMUM of a 25% chance. by the end of night 1 we'd be likely 4 townies down depending on our lynch. On August 02 2011 23:52 Mig wrote: Varpulis looks the most scummy to me so far. Initially in IRC he was extremely against sandroba's plan. However once he posts in the thread his opinion goes from strong to neutral and wishy washy. His posts contributed nothing and were extremely bland/common advice. Along with that he completely misinterprets trotske's post here to cast a very weak Fos on him. So basically this game Varp has promised some pro town ideas while not actually contributing anything to the town. Has strong opinions in IRC when people aren't around but is afraid to take a strong stance in the thread. And instead of making a real case against anyone he casts a very weak suspicion on trotske with poor reasoning. ##Vote Varpulis Here mig votes for varp for being wishy washy. That might be fine except he's against him for saying the plan where we take a random shot without knowing is bad. obviously this is bad, and he uses this quote to accuse him? I don't see why he would unless he's trying to put pressure on him for being against this plan! It doesn't make sense to me, and frankly seems scummy. JeeJee you are correct on this point but what exactly does pointing it out contribute? You have 2 posts and both of them while correct are bland and useless. You commented on pressure votes and neglected to comment on whether you actually thought varp was scummy or not. Who do you think is scum? What do you think about the 2 leading candidates varp/red? He seems VERY eager to get everyone's opinion on everyone, he PMed me asking my opinion on chaos and varp, to which i responded blandly and generically. It seems to me like he is trying to find out who's most likely to be lynched in the future so he can defend them if necessary. I don't see why a townie would need to know everyone's opinion on everyone. On a side note I find it strange when people say they aren't suspicious of anyone, I am not sure if it makes you scummy or lazy town. Mafia is a game where everyone is guilty until proven innocent. 3 pages in and I can find reasons to suspect half the town. So even with all your experience JeeJee you can't find anyone who stands out as scummy so far? Really? He seems to be trying to pressure G.G. here. Not to accuse him of potentially being scum, but to try to get his opinion on people. He seems like his only here to find out our opinions on each other! The only reasons I can think of for this would be to start a civil war between townies or try to manipulate votes. Both seem very scummy. I have a pretty simple defense. People should actually read my posts. Where have I backed down after putting pressure on people? What mafia objectives have I pushed? Look at the questions I asked varp and JeeJee. Was I trying to slander them or cast suspicion on them to look like I was fake contributing? Or was I asking legitimate questions that the town should be asking. The town has almost no activity and I am actively trying to get people to post in IRC. What a scummy thing for me to do! I have pmd half the people in town asking them for their opinions. And I have no problem with giving my opinions on people. No one has to force me to contribute. So just ask yourself if my play is helping the town or helping mafia. If you think I am helping mafia feel free to lynch me. I have more posts than almost anyone in the thread lol? Including writing the most coherent case against Varp. Find someone who has made a stronger case than that in this thread. Maybe this I didn't read the rules, but I'm pretty sure high post count =/= town. This is your only defense so far and it's not legitimate at all. I don't see why activity is a "town" thing to do. and why lurking is a mafia thing really, especially if being a lurker makes them suspected as being mafia. (Meta, huh?) Anyway, i might vote for him depending on if i think lucidity is more scummy or not. (P.S. Saying "If you think I am helping mafia feel free to lynch me." is more of an invitation than a defense.) | ||
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
On August 04 2011 04:11 BloodyC0bbler wrote: MIG isn't even on the docket to get lynched right now, why would you analyze a player a few hours before the lynch who isn't going to get lynched? He was before I went to bed yesterday, when I started. | ||
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
On August 03 2011 07:34 Lucidity wrote: I think you missed one of Varpulis' important posts Munk-E: Yeah this is pretty important. Why on earth does he want soldiers to claim? It would FORCE them to sacrifice themselves for a random shot? He's so all over the plan, it makes me think that at first his scum buddies tried to endorse the plan, but when it was seen as bad, they backed off. He tried to make it continue in a way that couldn't POSSIBLY be beneficial and would help mafia a LOT. For some reason he seems to think activity is a reason that you're not scum! I never have and likely never will see the logic behind this. It seems like a scum's way of not having to post anything of value, yet still be considered a townie. For these reasons, i would like to ##vote Varpulis | ||
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
On August 04 2011 06:07 youngminii wrote: wtf Munk-E you just posted a giant post-by-post analysis of Mig concluding with "I'm going to either vote for Varp or Lucid" Now you take Lucid's post against Varp, something that's been rehashed a hundred times already, and use that to vote for him? Clear bus imo. On August 03 2011 06:28 youngminii wrote: nah i was just kidding Anyway, I'd rather Mig die than Lucidity/Varpulis. I dunno, the latter two just seem so.. Normal? While Mig is screaming "I'M SCUM". Maybe it's just me. -____- you're voting for varp as well. The reason I quoted lucid was because he mentioned how I forgot that post. Which I did. It's an important post. My analysis of him before I mention his wishy washyness and how he tried this once. The fact that he tried it again is big! It says that he really wants them to claim and it wasn't a stupid idea he had for a minute. TBH, It would have been a toss up between varp and lucid for me, but I haven't done proper analysis of lucid, so voting for him would look VERY suspicious. I think both are scum anyway. | ||
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
So we've already found 2 scum in redFF and DoctorHelvetica who are opposing the plan without any real reasons? Good stuff. A confirmed townie coordinating blues is brilliant. The only problem I can see is if scum impersonates medics. That could give away blue roles/leave our soldier vulnerable. Solution? Just have all medics protect the soldier for night 1. 1 Night of coordinated abilities is quite powerful and we'll have more info on Day 2. this first post is very VERY for the plan to the point that he immediately calls scum on people for it. They both later attacked him for this, and Redff even voted to lynch him. I think he is WAY to for the plan here without even considering the consequences. It seems scummy to me to pressure people that disagree with you. On August 02 2011 08:29 Lucidity wrote: 1. Medics are basically the only problem I see at the moment. I don't think that qualifies as a reason to instantly discard the plan. 2. Having Mafia stack hits reduces their KP, which isn't a bad thing. We'll still have no overlaps on Night 1 from blues. 3. What? 4. That's the case on Day 2 as well. Another terrible attempt to stop the plan. Why would he be suggesting that? Here DH is defending himself from lucidity's aggressiveness quite well, however he just continues to press the issue. He is still calling scum for having a different opinion here. He would give an arm and a leg for this plan it seems at this point. On August 02 2011 09:01 Lucidity wrote: How will he figure out who the other vig shots are aimed at? How will a fake medic find out who the other medics are protecting? Who said the plan is faultless? I think I'll take your advice and vote for you! ##vote redFF Here he votes for redFF (But doesn't actually vote for him). I find it strange that he's THIS passionate this early on in the game! I mean seriously WTF? He is given A LOT of reasons why the plan is dumb, but he refuses to hear it! He just keeps accusing! Haha, I guess I was still in the Asylum mindset with mass blue everywhere - somehow thought that all 7 blue roles listed would be in the game. ~4 blues make sense and we're very unlikely to have 2 medics in that, so a plan to coordinate them this early isn't actually that great. I think the only time that we should be claiming is if Mafia only have 1 KP left or if a Day Vig hits a Vet, leaving us with 2 confirmed townies. One of them will survive the night and be able to pass on info~ redFF, forever RED? By this point, most people were against the plan. Yeah... I'm not sure how much I buy that defense of "Oops, klutzy me! I thought there'd be more medics!" as an excuse to completely change his mind from "This plan is so good that everyone against it is obviously scum" to. "This plan is stupid!" This is the scummiest post I think he's made. I mean it would be hard to make that transition, and it losing popularity requires you to if your against it so hard and you want to be in the majority. and why would you want to be in the majority so bad? If you're scum. On August 03 2011 04:49 Lucidity wrote: Lol dude wtf? I'm struggling to find any non-scum motive for wanting such a claim. Could you provide me with one? And you're focused on maintaining your appearance as an active townie instead of hunting scum? Good stuff. Mig's going crazy at people for not providing great posts on IRC, yet he's not doing what he's hounding others to do? Scum often employ such strategies. What's the dealio, yo? This post astonished me. At first i thought since he voted for varp after it was the bandwagony thing to do. However, if you look at the time, at the time of this post Varp only had 2 votes for him from a while ago. This post sort of STARTS the bandwagon on varp! I don't know if this was intentional or not, but WTF! Up until now I was sure lucidity was scum, but this makes me wonder! If it's such a waste of time why are you dedicating any time at all to it anymore? I don't think there has been serious majority support for the plan for long now, so there's no reason for you to talk about it. Every Day 1 has to start in some useless way before there's something to discuss. Why not use the posts that have been generated by this plan to start some discussion which you think might be useful? Here he is completely against the plan now. He was so for it at first and now is completely against it. He even states that no one is for it anymore. His backing of the plan is directly proportional to it's overall popularity. He just wants to blend in, like a chameleon that works for the mafia. In the end, I just don't know! He's VERY scummy with his bandwagon hopping when it comes to the plan, and sure he only voted varp after the bandwagon was rolling, but he was in second and might have done that to avoid being lynched, not to seem inconspicuous.if varp had flipped town, i would think he'd definitely be mafia, but he started a bandwagon on varp, it may be accidental for all i know and he was just trying to distance himself, but it seems strange that he would do this. P.S. sorry about not talking at night i didn't know it was a rule. | ||
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
On August 07 2011 04:59 Lucidity wrote: So you call me and Mig scummy. You post analysis on us. You never vote for us. You didn't vote for me on Day 1, because you thought that would make you look scummy. Have you forgotten about your previous posts? Why are you abandoning your two best suspects for drH and BC? Why do we definitely have a DT? Explain the 2 greedy scouts or whatever. That sentence confused me. Alright, alright. Listen, I thought at the beginning that varp was just dumb and acting like mafia, I could have sworn early on that he wasn't mafia, I just had a feeling he wasn't. He seemed like he was doing everything that you try to avoid doing as mafia. I actually did miss that post that you kindly offered to me. You and mig were the heaviest against varp, so when he flipped red, I no longer became suspicious of you. Also, I don't think the game would be fair without a DT. it seems necessary for town to have 1. Also, DrH said that there's probably 2 vets, + at least 1 medic and possibly a hatter/vigi. So I don't see how there's room for 2 medics. also, I was saying that if the mafia claimed scouts, we couldn't tell them from the real scouts since there are so many. They claimed medic hoping that we wouldn't risk lynching a medic and think there might be 2 medics. I also think that the fact that 2 of them did this indicates poor planning. | ||
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
I would like to mention that the reason I am doing this is NOT because I think jeejee is innocent, I absolutely think he is Mafia, I just don't see how voting or analysis would help since he's in the vast majority of votes already. Since we have already figured out there is only going to be 1 medic, I am trying to figure out which of DrH or BloodyC0bbler is mafia. The first thing to note is that BC didn't vote for varp day 1. DrH DID change to varpulis, but only after the score was 6 to 3 with varp leading. I realize this was before the super big bandwagon vote, but for all I know, DrH could have seen that as the opportune time to switch to avoid suspicion. It does seem like the perfect time and he is experienced at this game i hear. As for this vote, They both are voting for JeeJee. However BC voted for him near last after it was obvious he was going to be killed no matter what practically. He qualified doing this by saying he forgot to vote. I'm not sure how much I believe this. Meanwhile DrH voted at a modestly normal time. Almost TOO normal, like right in the middle again, where bandwagon hopping wasn't an issue. BC put a lot of pressure on JeeJee this round BEFORE the mass voting really began! He did vote for JeeJee last time too, so he could quite easily just be sticking to his guns! DrH however states that he often changes his mind. What I find weird about DrH is that he's never really accusing anyone. He frequently cites other people as his arguments against who he's lynching. I'm guessing since he's a veteran player, he feels comfortable just talking in the thread. A lot of his posts don't contribute at all. Furthermore, he seems to be trying to run the game. It feels like he's currently in a state where no one really suspects him at all due to activity. The only other mafia game I played iGrok did the same thing and he was regarded the same way. He ended up being GF. In the end, BC has been after jeejee since the he first attacked him. He has continued to add (Rather compelling) evidence against jeejee. I think he did just forget to vote. While he's here proving his case, DrH is content to just blend in and appear active. For these reasons I am compelled to think DrH knew when to jump on the bandwagons. It is a close call, but in the end i think BloodyC0bbler is the real medic. ##vote DoctorHelvetica | ||
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
Next I would like to say that, unless someone has a better plan, I recommend both alleged medics protect each other. That way, we can either have a dead medic and a confirmed mafia, or an alive medic. | ||
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
On August 07 2011 06:18 DoctorHelvetica wrote: good point. i won't necessarily be protecting mig. i'll PM bc and we'll RNG who we protect between the other medic and mig. this will confuse the mafia a bit. I still don't completely buy that there's 2 medics. How do I know that you're not mafia, and you convince BC to protect you and lynch BC, or vice versa? Or you could kill mig and say BC was supposed to protect him. | ||
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
 W/e we still win. | ||
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United States672 Posts
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Munk-E
United States672 Posts
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