Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia III

On June 04 2011 12:27 Varpulis wrote:
He's saying that we'd be better off lynching a scummy player and then looking at who defended/pushed for his lynch depending on his flip than we'd be if we just offed a lurker.

At this point, I'm tending to agree. I'm currently planning on putting some pressure on the lurkers early on, then focusing on who's actually scummy when there's more to analyze.

On June 04 2011 23:40 Mataza wrote:


Yes, it´s quite sensible really. With my normal start I was widely perceived as random and scummy, which is not good for my play whatsoever.
I could of course say it´s only good for my town play, but that would be deceiving you.
As Scum, lynching me is obviously what I don´t want.
As Town, lynching me would be a mislynch and that´s also bad for town.

Also Prplhz get a grip on yourself. Since this setup has no PMs, claims are just a bad play.
I only advocated claims in SNM2 because we could deduce the exact setup. Here, we have to do it by plain old scumhunting.

For example tomorrow we know the kill of night 1. Now for example if I would drop dead, it would make Palmar a suspect. Then again you can go by the fact that Palmar wouldn´t be that straightforward and look for someone who furthered an argument between us 2 without getting himself involved.
Just like Giygas badly tried to play me and Viscera against each other in SNM2.


Vanilla vs Vanilla as working assumption, all in favor?

On June 05 2011 02:58 prplhz wrote:
@Palmar

I'm gonna echo Hesmyrr's request: explain ... what ton of information we get from vet claiming? It's a bad plan especially when roleblockers can block vet extra life, I can't possibly see what town would gain from vet-claim.

On June 05 2011 01:20 Mataza wrote:
LOL.

OriginalName, read. I said EXAMPLE, because I wanted to explain how scumhunting works to someone who has no clue.
I could have said Palmar dies and then I get suspicious.
Seriously read plz.

On June 05 2011 08:15 Varpulis wrote:
Palmar, please stop fucking around. If you don't, I'm going to proceed with the assumption that you are scum trying to divert the town's attention and derail our discussion.

On June 06 2011 01:41 Varpulis wrote:
Disclaimer: My vote stays on originalname until he shows up or it becomes clear that he's not going to. My next vote will go to the person that i think we should lynch today. I've pressured enough, it's time to be decisive. As of now, I've got a few town reads, a few scum reads, and a couple of null reads. they are as follows:

Town

Varpulis -You think I'd put myself anywhere else?

hesmyrr dementrio -hessmyr was contributing well and being critical before he had to sub out. I hope that dementrio can do the same, because his replacee was quite pro town. Further reads will be tough though, so I'm going to treat him as a new player from this point on.

Mataza -not the best start, but I'm liking his most recent posting. It's logical and straightforward.

JeeJee -Logical, helpful, and critical. His posting gives me town vibes, and I agree with his arguments.

Palmar -retarded posting early, recent posts are good. For now, I'll tentatively call him green, though i'm less confident on him.

Prplhz -town vibe. much like JeeJee, his posting is quite good, except for this one, which is fluff.

Null reads

Unichan
Kavdragon
OriginalName
stefftastiq

Scum

Youngminii -supported a terrible mafia favored plan with terrible logic. References experience but isn't showing strong play. Votes Palmar for an analysis that he doesn't agree with.

Sinani206 -Actively lurking, not providing opinion, posting lists in order to seem like he's contributing.

My vote goes on Sinani at the end of the day if he doesn't step up his posting.

On June 06 2011 07:16 sinani206 wrote:
Also you have convinced me steff. You are probably just a townie defending himself. I am sorry. I will vote for Kavdragon instead for the reasons stated in my above overall analysis.

On June 06 2011 09:34 Varpulis wrote:
Plan: Cops check sinani. DON'T CLAIM COP If he's scum, find another way to communicate it. Call his claim under scrutiny later, and analyze his posting to show that he's scum. Claim only if you think you're going to die.

We proceed to lynch OriginalName, for lurking and not posting content. He has joined all the major bandwagons and posted only his opinion of those players that he's voting for, basically just repeating what everybody else is saying.

Thoughts?

On June 06 2011 10:19 OriginalName wrote:


Or hes bullshitting us to try to lynch someone else, its D1 just let it roll

Or your trying to save a scumbuddy in a last ditch effort.

On June 06 2011 10:28 youngminii wrote:
Guys if you won't listen to logic, can you at least listen to math? IF, IF Sinani is vet, then we will be losing a pretty big town power role. Honestly, do you really want to risk that instead of waiting one more day for a confirmation?

Most, if not all, of the mafia would definitely agree with the lynch on Sinani (assuming he is vet). Don't get caught up in the bandwagoning imo.

man if sinani ends up being scum i'm never gonna play mafia ever again

On June 06 2011 11:28 youngminii wrote:

We have quite a bit actually.

Bear with me while I concoct a theory out of my conspiracy hat.

+ Show Spoiler [Theory #1] +

And right now I'm extremely uncomfortable with unichan/steff/jeejee's lurkerish activity. If they are mafia they're just skirting by under the radar.

On June 06 2011 11:33 youngminii wrote:
Don't know if I'm the best cop check. I think it may be safe to play the next day or two assuming I'm town, no? I mean unless you really think my play is really scummy, but there's definitely better people to check imo, especially:

Palmar. He's nearing the top of my scum list but there's a little voice in the back of my head telling me he's just a crappy town player. If we can get a cop to check him I'd be a lot more reassured.

On June 07 2011 07:24 Mataza wrote:
Ya, OMGUS is a nice word indeed^^
According to that logic you just have to accuse everyone and see who accuses back, Tada scum!

My meta on Steff is that he looks really helpless. It doesn´t make him town.

I thought about putting Hesmyrr and OriginalName in red.
But I really wanted to put them one suspicion category lower than you. You were dodgy as hell, and even said "I defended Sinani, he flipped blue, therefore I must be green"
We all know that it made you look better. So why do you try to rub it in?

On June 07 2011 07:50 Mataza wrote:
Meta as in short for meta behavior read.
What´s your problem with shortening that?

On June 07 2011 11:16 youngminii wrote:

Actually the names were all the people that were voting Sinani.

I absolutely 100% support Kavdragon's post against OriginalName. Not only is his analysis spot on, the information that we get from lynching him is amazing. If he ends up flipping scum, then based on the votes from day 1, we can easily narrow down the remaining scum. In fact, if OriginalName ISN'T scum then all we have to do is step back and re-evaluate everyone. That sounds confusing but I'll explain.

At the end of Day 1, it had essentially become Sinani V OriginalName plus a few ragtag votes (almost all of which were by people under the radar) among other people. There were some people that switched from Sinani to ON that could be regarded scummy but that's for another discussion.

Right now we know that Sinani was town. In fact, the fact that he was a vet made him an extremely important target for the mafia to snipe during the day. As such, it leads me to believe that at least 2-3 people that had originally (before moving over to ON) voted for Sinani were indeed scum. As more and more townies jumped on the bandwagon, the scum felt relatively safe. Then an opposing bandwagon started on ON. If ON is scum, then the vote on Sinani became even more important, as Sinani was the only other option. If ON is scum, then everyone on the Sinani bandwagon becomes even more suspicious than they are now, to the point where they become lynchable/vigi targets (imo). This is actually the most likely scenario, since mataza/palmar are both on my scumdar and steff/prplhz are both pretty scummy too.

Now if ON is actually a townie, then this means that mafia didn't actually have to do anything really for Day 1. I mean, they COULD have started the Sinani bandwagon so it doesn't really clear them. But if ON is town, then why would the people that voted for ON have even bothered? Why would I go for ON if he's just going to end up town? The bottom line is that there is no reason for myself or anyone else that went for ON (originally) to risk ourselves when we have a perfectly valid Sinani lynch. If ON ends up townie, it most likely means that the people with ragtag votes on other people could very well be mafia just laughing as town kills each other. This is actually the most unlikely outcome, but it's still a possibility.

So basically, ON is almost definitely mafia, but if he's not we still gain a ton of valuable information.