EPTComplete newbie, be gentle.
Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia II
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
Complete newbie, be gentle. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
That being said, while the 25% odds of lynching a mafia on the first day may seem steep, there are tons of things that we can do to increase our odds. The first part is that we need to get everyone to step up and talk. The more people talk, the more chance someone makes a mistake that can be taken advantage of. And as Mataza pointed out, no matter the setup, we do have available more than one mis-lynches, So even if we do stake a townie this first day, we aren't in any trouble really. And more importantly, even if the person that dies is green, then we at least already have very valuable information on the people that wanted him dead. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
I'm more worried about the quiet people, it's only been 13 hours or so, but we're still missing half the town in the action. If people don't post people don't make mistakes. So please type in a few sentences so we know you're alive: Karshe Hiro Protagonist Skrammen DeepBlu2 Wunder | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
Again, preferably I don't want to lynch an inactive, because it's almost guaranteed they aren't mafia. But if there are still inactive people this time tomorrow and we've got nothing else to go on, I will seriously consider casting a vote their way, if nothing else just to get them talking. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On May 17 2011 02:25 nard wrote: dont forget we have an 48hour day cycle, so there is still plenty of time for everybody to post. i can imagine there are still some people thinking about what they could include in their first post which is not completely trivial - took me a while as well :p I don't quite understand that logic... Why would it take effort to create a first post? Even if you say something completely retarded it's fine as long as you have nothing to hide. Barring revealing a blue power role, anything you say in your first post will just be that... a simple first post. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
Now, listen up. Mataza is pro town. He might not be the best at portraying it, but this guy is as innocent as a newborn baby. The worst way to play on the first day is to lynch someone this outspoken and willing to analyse, in addition giving the mafia good targets to bandwagon on. Plenty of people have band-wagoned after Gig and VisEyes, any number of them could be our scum. Luckily there is at least some improvement in voting for stefftastiq, seeing as "hi lol, i'm new" is basically a terrible first post. If you're pro-town, you're not careful. You don't give careful observations and tell people you're new. But instead you just cannon rush the fuck out of whomever you think might be red. He was also very quick to apologize, which is another sign of someone that is insecure. But the again... he might just be that new and naive... If you're town Steff: step up your damn game, because you're not helping us at the moment. Here's another option: As I don't have a proper red read on anyone yet should we consider just lynching someone that will get mod-killed anyway? That is probably the safest mislynch, as even if it's wrong, that person would've died anyway... Oh, and here is my FOS: DeepBlu2 On May 17 2011 05:41 DeepBlu2 wrote: I am here. This is off to a good start. I am active..Not sure who I think atm. Hi2u2 On May 17 2011 11:57 DeepBlu2 wrote: I'm leaning towards Mataza at the moment. I'm not positive yet but just the fact he's defending himself so aggressively and has been caught with a couple of contradictions while blaming others as well. I'm going to be keep looking at his posts but he's my only suspect currently. I'm not saying it's definitely Mataza just the way he's handling himself is very defensive. Oh, would you look at that... a band-wagon I can get on without providing a single line of analysis? I can even hop on and feign being uncertain... that's a good plan for the future! ##Vote: DeepBlu2 | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On May 16 2011 12:11 Mataza wrote: At first i thought I would claim cop openly, but then I remembered that I just once saw a game where that ever worked. And boy how often it does not work. For the time being, I suggest we treat this game as if it was setup 4, with 9 vanilla no cop no doc. There are times to claim cop, but there are no times to claim doc. You see that? And now the mafia is bound to notice too, which is why I was hoping a strongly worded post would be enough to clear Mataza of suspicions. Hopefully Mataza will come in and tell us that this was a mistake, he is not the cop. If he does that I'll completely renounce my stance of him being innocent, and treat him as every other villager. But until he clears this up, we will treat him as a potential cop. Now the mafia is bound to shoot him in the first night anyway, but there is no reason for us to do the mafia's job. @DeepBlu2: you mention Giyg attacking two people? Who is the other one? I thought all his posts were mostly directed at Mataza? But then again, I sometimes can't even understand what Giyg is saying... so I might be wrong. Please explain your defense. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
This also means I renounce all my previous claims that Mataza was innocent. I mean, I still have problems with the way you post, that post was made after the game started, so you must've known your role by then. In general lying as a townie is a bad idea, and given your previous experience you should really know that... I expect you to step up your play and be more consistent. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On May 18 2011 01:14 Karshe wrote: Then, his most eye raising act, he then takes it upon himself to defend Mataza, the town's biggest point of discussion, while pointing a completely random finger away from Mataza. And I mean, he really defends Mataza. Hell yes I did! I'd do it again... and you know what: I'm going to! @Mataza - Regarding Giyg I don't think he's mafia, and I don't think you are either. You're obviously the more experienced player of you two, and at least your posts make sense, something I haven't been able to decode from Giyg's posts. I really do think you're just two townies randomly pointing fingers at each other while the true scum sits back and enjoys the show. But this is just my gut feeling though, I don't have any evidence to back it up. Perhaps because I really just can't make anything useful out of Giyg's posts I mean, the logic is quite simple: Either he's spammy town or bad mafia. If he's bad mafia he's an easy lynch later on, and might even reveal more connections in the coming days. If he's spammy town... well then he's just spammy town. So yeah, if he's mafia, then he's actually so bad that we can use it against them. But I really don't think he is, I think the mafia lurks amongst the less active or moderately active players. But then again... maybe lynching him is worth just getting rid of the shitstorm of useless posts he conjures... | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
What I'm afraid of is going into day two with very little or no information about half the players in the game. How on earth are you going to analyse who is mafia amongst the people that have hardly said anything so far in the game? Any information is better than no information. This is why I don't want to just let everyone bandwagon you in the first place, and then Gyig now. I want one of the people that aren't contributing against the wall. On May 18 2011 02:01 Mataza wrote: Common sense: Active mafia will try to disrupt town conversation. Bad town might do that as well. Both are bad for town. This is very much true. But I'd rather have to filter through tons of bad information injected by mafia, than having no information at all and just playing a guessing game. Actually, here's a promise for you, if everyone comes into the thread, contributes and makes good analysis of the situation, I will switch my vote to GiygaS and help you get him lynched. Just so you know how I think in this game. Karshe recently posted an analysis on me, and accused me of being red. This only reduced the chance of me going after him, because he is at least trying to contribute. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On May 18 2011 06:20 prplhz wrote: So I'm asking everybody (and that include you, person who is reading this now) to post who they would like to get lynched on day2 in case they themselves will get assassinated during the night. I think that I might be a target (hoping for a cute nurse to help me out though!) so this is probably quite relevant. This will be great for town, we can have you analytical skills readily available for day2 even if you get killed during the night! prplhz... Why do you keep doing this man, most everything you post is fairly well structured and useful, and then you throw in some random comment that's basically useless for the town, and even directly harmful. I don't really give a shit about all the stuff VisEyes said, he's just building straw houses like he's been doing all game. I don't mind that at all. But this one quote really requires explanation. Why would you ever ask for doctor protection? That simply doesn't make sense from a logical point of view. I'll explain why... Scenario 1: You're green town You should _never_ ask for protection as a green townie. Your death during the night is great success for the town, because no blue role was harmed. Scenario 2: You're blue town (and thus cop, since none of the possible setups have 2 docs) Mafia _immediately_ knows the setup now (since they already know if they have a roleblocker or not). If they have a roleblocker, they'll just roleblock you, and if they don't have a roleblocker, they know there is no doc in the setup... so they just kill you. Well you might be meta-gaming hardcore... trying to reverse trick the mafia into going for you, and thus dying as green. But there is a term for lynching anyone that lies during the game (lal - lynch all liars). Lying is a big gamble for the town... I think the biggest possibility is that you simply didn't think this through well enough, so I'd like to you to publicly renounce your request for doctor protection. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
My opinion remains that the greatest threats to this town are people like DeepBlu, Wunder, stefftastiq, Hiro and Skrammen. People who give us nothing to read them on. I mean, GiygaS is completely useless, so I'm not going to push against a lynch on him, hell... he might flip red and we're in good shape. But at some point this town needs to get aggressive towards those who just... don't do anything. Now keep doing what you've been doing, because it's a good thing you're doing it. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
This definitely isn't a bad start. I still worry about the amount of information we have, but I guess that can be remedied in the coming days. First thing to do is try not to overthink the situation. There is a chance the mafia might have voted for Giyg as soon as they saw him as a potential target, but the obvious and much more accessible solution is to approach the problem from the point of view that mafia didn't vote for mafia. So unless any major clues get revealed, the first thing to do is to analyse and understand everyone that got on the wrong side of the vote, and try to find out who was genuinely wrong and who had malicious intent. Karshe Hiro Protagonist Wunder Nard Palmar It's more than likely that both the remaining mafia can be found in this list. I will break down everyone's posts in this list, except of course myself, that's a job for someone else, and provide analysis in the coming day. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On May 19 2011 01:24 VisceraEyes wrote: Here's my problem with your approach here Palmar. Everyone on that list voted for Skrammen for one reason: Because he's inactive and you (among others) were gunning hard for inactives the ENTIRE GAME. I don't even have to analyze your posts...they all say the same thing. "Inactives are a threat to this town, we must get rid of them first." What I find interesting is that after spending all game saying this, the very first post you make after we find some scum is "Forget inactives...let's start looking for scum now!" As Mataza pointed out, 2 of the 4 most inactive players voted rightly for who they thought was scum. The other 2 bandwaggoned on someone more inactive than they are. I mean, great success on the first day might render my approach irrelevant in this game, but you can't count on every game getting lucky with a loud-mouth the first day. Sometimes that same loud-mouth will be a bad townie. I don't want to lynch inactives. I want to threaten them with a lynch to the point they are forced to contribute to the game, and then we can start scumhunting. While written information for analysis is the best way to approach scum hunt, as I'm sure both you and mataza will agree with me in, vote patterns are also something you can base scum-hunting on. I am all for putting pressure on inactive people to step up and provide us with information, but I did not get much support for it last night, so I'll just admit... I'm kind of giving up on that approach, and gonna go with the ammunition I have at hand to get the baddies. I had a bad read on Gyig, looks like I had a good read on Mataza. I actually thought they were both townies pointing fingers at each other. But yeah, Mataza looks really clean now. But listen up here: I'm going to retract my first statement about only analysing the people who did not vote for Giyg. I went back and re-read all his posts, and he's so chaotic and bad, that there is a possibility of the mafia simply throwing him under the bus to gain trust, because he was always going to get lynched anyway. I'm not going to start pointing fingers just yet, but someone like purplehaze looks really damn safe now after being the deciding vote that got a mafia lynched. It's not far-fetched to think that any smart mafia would consider throwing their useless buddy under the bus to buy safety. Lastly: It is important to no end that VisEyes and Mataza leave their thoughts in this thread before day breaks, you two are by fare the most likely mafia targets. Of the townies that actually contributed on day one, myself and Kersha are probably safe, seeing as it'll be easy to convince the town to vote against us. purplehaze is in a weird spot, but I don't think he'll get murdered. Might post your thoughts anyway though. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
I didn't change my vote because my strategy didn't work, and both the targets that you guys were going for were basically fair game to me. I didn't really care which one you lynched. How many times do I have to repeat this: I don't want to lynch inactives, I want to use votes to pressure them into action. On May 18 2011 09:21 VisceraEyes wrote: @Mataza Keep in mind that Palmar is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN of GiygaS and prplhz' innocence. Here is one of your wrong quotes... I really think it's bad for the town if people keep lying, Only a few posts earlier I had posted this in a conversation with Mataza: On May 18 2011 02:23 Palmar wrote: if everyone comes into the thread, contributes and makes good analysis of the situation, I will switch my vote to GiygaS and help you get him lynched. (link to entire post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=222568¤tpage=8#145 ) So yeah. You wanted explanation of my posting pattern... there you go. I just didn't really give a shit which one got killed. As I already stated, I couldn't really make much sense of GiygaS posts, so I didn't have a strong red read on him. And Skrammen was just being completely useless... so I wasn't gonna jump in and defend him either. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On May 19 2011 07:57 Mataza wrote: @Palmar, @Viscera Stop arguing. You are prolly both town. Vis, if you trust me at all, drop it. I can´t really say much more. Palmar, I think there are more obvious targets than Vis. You said yourself Vis is a bit random. On the other hand Karshe is calm, collected and utterly wrong. The more I read his post history, the more i am sure. Don't worry about it, I was merely doing the same thing as I did to you with your cop claim, and with purplehaze with his random doc request. I want to keep the town honest, because lying is almost never good for the town. It only makes it that much harder to find the really good stuff. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
Your post analyses: What did Karshe say that could've gotten him killed I will now analyse: What does Karshe's death accomplish for the mafia The state of the town: After GiygaS got lynched last night, there was an interesting situation in the town. We got a correct lynch on the first day, but sadly, the mafiosi that got lynched was pretty much... insane. Let's have a look at how this death affects the active players: VisEyes: Karshe was on his short-list of suspects. Viseyes still strongly suspects me (Palmar) and Purplehaze. It is interesting to note that Karshe was not the only target VisEyes and Mataza agreed on. They also agreed that Purplehaze was suspicious. Did the mafia intend to break up the combination of VisEyes/Mataza? Mataza: Currently Mataza is pretty well trusted in the town. If he's playing mafia then he's at least being very subtle about it. But he was very convinced Karshe was mafia during the night. Mataza also fos'd purplehaze during the night. Did the Mafia want to discredit Mataza by proving him wrong? Purplehaze: Purplehaze was the one that sealed the deal on the GiygaS kill. This is important because no matter the fact that it could be a bluff, it should give him some credibility. Karshe's death did not change much for Purplehaze aside from the fact that he is now the prime suspect agreed upon by VisEyes and Mataza Did the mafia want to set Purplehaze up? Palmar: As for myself, I got fos'd by Karshe early in day1. I was the only active player along with Karshe that did not vote to kill GiygaS. Mataza had already cleared me of his suspicions, but Karshe's death proved that he was wrong there. I am not stupid, thus I can clearly see all the arrows pointing towards myself at this point. Did the mafia want to set me up? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And here is the big thing. Karshe was all for lynching and pushing inactives. Please note the pattern that Karshe's death discredited every active player in town. The more I think about it the more I understand what a brilliant way of causing confusion in the town it was to kill Karshe. Just imagine what you can do with one night-kill Discredit Mataza Break up Mataza/VisEyes Paint a target on Purplehaze Paint a target on Palmar I'd take this opportunity with open hands if I was the mafia. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
My analysis still stands. I would like to see how Karshe's death has negatively affected the following players: Wunder Hiro Protagonist Nard Stefftastiq DeepBlu2 Skrammen Truth to be told. We know very little about them. I am going to try to find time to analyse each and every one of those during the coming day. | ||
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