EPTTL Mafia XXXIX
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Impervious
Canada4199 Posts
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Impervious
Canada4199 Posts
Redtooth could have easily bussed it, so he's not totally off the hook. I realize that he's putting a really, really good effort as a townie, but I'm still not completely sold. Especially since his plan actually created a bit of a divide in the town (which was a pretty predictable result), and that is definitely an anti-town play. It could be that he's town and it was unintentional though, which is why I think he needs to be watched. I also disliked some posts by kitaman27 earlier in the thread (yes, I have read the majority of the thread). He's also someone else who should be watched imo. Other than that, it looks like we're off to a solid start! | ||
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Impervious
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Impervious
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Two other people that chaoser didn't include was kitaman27 and redtooth. I'm less sure about redtooth, but I did explain my reasoning for having him under suspicion in my 2nd post in the thread. As for kitaman27, I had a suspicious reading of him before Amber[light] flipped. I would expect that at least 1 of the mafia would actually have been voting for Amber[light] from the start, and stuck with it. Probably the RB or the GF. Why? Because it's so freaking hard to determine they are actually scum if that happens, and it's a great backup plan to try to ensure that your team wins. Generally, actions speak louder than words..... So I also think we shouldn't be expecting to find EVERY mafia within that list. Probably 2 or 3 of them though. And from chaoser's analysis, I do believe that GGQ and sinani are the most likely, so either hit tonight or lynched tomorrow wouldn't be a bad move (unless some new info comes along). If new info comes along, I wouldn't be expecting it from chaoser. The mafia have 2kp and probably a roleblocker (it's possible GGQ is scum and lying and there is no roleblocker), so if he isn't dead tonight, he'll be roleblocked to infinity and beyond..... I don't think any decent scum would let him get another check off, especially if one of his potential targets are scum. In other news, I'm also pretty certain that sandroba is town (at least he'd better be after what happened in Sleeper Cell -_-), and I'm also pretty certain that Cthsazsa is also town. It really does seem like the mafia were trying pretty hard to lynch him, which would save Amber[light]. I'm also pretty sure chaoser is legitimately a DT (that goes without saying). As for everyone else, I'm not too sure at the moment. Nobody is really standing out too strongly. | ||
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Impervious
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However, it would not guarantee that there was a fake claim. chaoser can be a legit DT and it's still possible that we targetted 2 scum at the same time. | ||
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Impervious
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Impervious
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I'm in agreement that a statistical approach is useful, but with only 2 days of info, we don't have much to go with, and it's going to be very easy to make mistakes..... We should not rely solely on it, although, using it to get a good read on potential scum isn't a bad use at the moment. | ||
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Impervious
Canada4199 Posts
Why? Because the mafia want to get rid of blues. Duh? You've basically eliminated one person who could be blue out of their pool of players to go after. @ sandroba - I think we need to focus on two strong scum candidates and see where that leads us. Right now, DropBear and EternalMisfit are two strong ones. We should probably focus on them right now. DropBear has been of no particular use to the town, and has been hindering us in some ways. Even if he's not mafia, it wouldn't be too big of a hit to the town right now. EternalMisfit is definitely scummy. That post he made at night about having the vigi shoot him was really, really fucking dumb, from a townie perspective. It's almost like he wanted to take attention away from both of them (and since GGQ flipped, well, you can fill in the rest). As for people that I'm suspicious of - I'm suspicious of kitaman27. I may be completely off the mark, but he's made a couple of posts that seem a little unusual. Others were two people that chaoser found suspicious, and I agree with him - sinani and ilovejohn. We need to let the DTs do their work now. It's completely possible that they've found a member of the mafia, but don't want to reveal it yet, because they could be gathering more information in the meantime. We're not even close to a lylo, so we're definitely in good shape. One thing I'm worried about are the millers that are potentially in the game. I'm really hoping that they bring enough attention to themselves that the mafia will hit them before a DT checks them. A couple of bad lynches + lynching millers due to DT checks could drastically change this game in a hurry. | ||
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Impervious
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Impervious
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On May 10 2011 23:15 sandroba wrote: @impervious can you please do an analysis on kita then? Analysis of kitaman27 Verdict: Suspicious. Reason: On May 06 2011 04:30 kitaman27 wrote: Irish_Punk13 This guy has been completely absent from the discussion after initially responding aggressively to pressure. His play so far has differed from his UG game as mafia, but that doesn't mean he hasn't changed up his playstyle in a more hostile environment. By ignoring the situation, he is digging his own grave. Amber[light] None of his posts have really stood out, but its been more the lack of posts that have been suspicious. I watched him in Insane 2 as scum and he was really lurky. Right now, he reminds me of Darth from last game, where everyone ignored him until late game, even though he was a vet that should be posting. His list for scum includes 2 confirmed scum, a confirmed town, and redtooth. The scum on his list were heavily lurking, and were also identified by other people before this point, so he didn’t really bring much info here. Especially since one was mod killed due to inactivity. I’m really not sure what to make of it. On May 07 2011 04:47 kitaman27 wrote: If we agree to play along, within reason, will you guys stop spamming up the thread? A 4 page discussion about things like whether or not we should allow 4 quotes or 5 quotes in a post or whether or not the plan makes the game fun is just plain silly. Good analysis should be valued, bad analysis should be ignored. Seems pretty simple to me. I find this highly ironic, since the vast majority of his posts have been spammy, and he’s asking others to stop spamming. Ok, that wasn’t actually scummy, just thought I’d point out something that you might get a chuckle out of. When it came time to actually lynch on Day 2, he was very resistant to switching to Amber. At least, until chaoser claimed DT. Then he switched immediately. Could easily be a bus. However, this post really stood out to me when I first read it: On May 09 2011 11:21 kitaman27 wrote: No, you explain now. I'm not trusting you if you think you're going to hide something from us. After switching his vote almost immediately, he suddenly put up some resistance? That seems really, really weird for someone who’s played more than a few games of mafia. Anyone with a power role needs to take advantage of their role as much as possible, and if you’re town, hindering that plan is a bad move. And it’s quite clear that chaoser had a plan from that post. The vast majority of his posts are spammy/no content. I know I play a lot like that as well, so I know that is not suspicious of itself. He’s an anti-lurking oriented player. And I can totally understand that as well. Getting the lurkers to participate more can also help the mafia as well though, because it doesn’t allow blues to blend in by lurking as well. This is particularly useful for roles like medics. The truth is, I’m not suspicious of him because I think he’s scum, I’m suspicious of him because I can’t peg him as town. He’s someone I want to watch, but not even consider lynching at the moment. He’s been asking questions which seem to be pro-town, but I’m still not sure. Now, another thing I’d like to bring to everyone’s attention: Did anyone else notice something weird about the night kills on the first night? I didn’t really notice it until doing this analysis….. Aidnai, KillerSOS, and Jackal58 were the targets. Aidnai was a strong supporter of redtooth’s initiative. He also made a post earlier on in the night which signified that he had a blue role without actually spelling it out. Seems like a logical hit. But why were KillerSOS and Jackal58 killed? Jackal is famed for his tunnelling, which could easily be manipulated or at least attempt to manipulate it before killing him (if I was mafia, I know that I’d want to keep him alive as a townie, unless he had a blue role). And since KillerSOS seemed to be a suspicious player, as a member of the mafia, I can’t see it being a stretch to actually push for his lynch at a later date….. And I did not get a vibe from him that he was blue. I’m not sure about it, but I’m thinking that maybe the mafia is more inexperienced than I initially expected them to be. I can’t think of a solid reason for “why them?” | ||
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Impervious
Canada4199 Posts
On May 11 2011 01:51 kitaman27 wrote: I'm not really sure how this post is scummy. I also believe I was one of the first people to bring up Amber and pressure him to post on day one. When you take into consideration that you initially voted against one of the two people you were suspicious of when Day 2 came around, it's no longer looks as clear as "I made a good list, give me a pat on the back now!"..... Ok, so I misinterpreted your mixup during the switch. Still seems kind weird though. I would not push a lynch on you, in fact, I would argue against it. We already have 2+ good suspects, and adding another right now (like you did recently) is not going to help the town much, because it will be much easier to be misdirected when there are more suspects thrown in our faces. And, if we get a good lynch today, we'll really handicap the mafia. | ||
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Impervious
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On May 12 2011 05:29 Varpulis wrote: shit, 7 on EM? There's scum in that bandwagon, I'm sure of it. At least 1, maybe 2 if he's town. Redtooth, where art thou? I'm in agreement that it is a possibility. However, like you said, we'd learn more about ilj from this lynch. And we can get sinani later as well. We're far from a lylo. Although, I would like to make this one count - taking the mafia down to 1kp would be really, really nice right now. | ||
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Impervious
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On May 12 2011 07:18 Varpulis wrote: Oh, I didn't know that that was his reason. That's a bad reason too. If they're all giving bad reasons for their votes, it sort of cancels out, doesn't it? I'll drop this line of accusation for now, but I urge everybody to give a good, thought out reason for your votes. Both are scummy imo. Doesn`t mean they are scum, but they seem scummy. With the lynch of EM, we learn about ilj, and he seems to be more detrimental to the town than sinani. So he seems like the better lynch of the two right now, even though I`d like to see both gone tbh. Good enough of a reason? | ||
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Impervious
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On May 12 2011 08:37 sandroba wrote: EM, I changed my mind about you and if you are scum, you sure are doing a great job of looking inocent. I'm chaging my vote to sinani because he is more useless and after see your current post I'm convinced you can be a good asset if you are town. I just hope I'm right this time. Ok, what the hell? Within a few hours of his lynch, he starts to look useful to the town, and you decide to get cold feet all of a sudden? Do you not remember the shit he was pulling earlier? He actually asked a vigi to hit HIM, in what seems like a fairly obvious ploy to take pressure off of both him and GGQ (and GGQ was red if you recall). Among other things. He's been detrimental, until the last few hours, now he's trying to save his skin..... | ||
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Impervious
Canada4199 Posts
Yes, it does look like calling a hit on yourself is a "frustrated townie" type move. At the same time, it was drawing attention away from GGQ, who was red..... And no vigi is going to hit anyone because they want to be hit..... It looks like it would be a gigantic waste of their ability..... I'm not sure about either of them. What I do know is that both seem scummy in some ways. And we learn more through a lynch of EM, because we can potentially erase ilj from our suspicious list. Because we accomplish more through a lynch of EM than through a lynch of sinani (I mean, from our limited knowledge), I can't see why you would want to switch right now..... If someone has better knowledge, and wants to share it right now, it'd help us greatly right now..... I'd be up for a switch, but not simply because EM has changed his posting ability in the last few hours. | ||
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Impervious
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And one gives us more info than the other. So it seems pretty obvious to me. | ||
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Impervious
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I'm turning 23 soon..... | ||
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