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TL Mafia XXXVIII
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=205804 | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
Here's to hoping I live past day 1. Please seriously guys though, don't spam this game, it's so hard to keep up when theres like 100 posts in 1 hour. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
FoS Kav, This might just be a meta thing, but I am not getting a huge town vibe out of you. I'm guessing you are an assassin though since if you were scum you probably would be a little more vocal. I generally like gmarshal, but I hope someone else runs for the vice-mayor role as I don't know what to think of chaoser just yet. Gmarshal is definitely a great asset to town and should be kept alive and be given extra voting privileges. ##Vote: Gmarshal | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
I like Kav's reasoning the best even though I Fos'd you yesterday. I don't feel comfortable with someone who has a different objective being mayor, but pardoner is fine. I'm sticking with my gmarshal vote because I feel comfortable with him as mayor. I'm not getting a good read on DrH just yet. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On April 11 2011 11:24 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I feel terrible abotu gmarshal right now. I think mayor should be me but everyone hates me so I guess kitaman27 is a rational choice. Just to re iterate. I AM RUNNING FOR MAYOR. My platform: -ignore assassin bullshit for the most part -I'd consider protact for pardoner because a. he will use his powers to help the town in exchange for the bodyguard protection so he can win his game b. pardoner isn't a strong role for the town -keep town focused on hunting scum -ignore everything pandain and kenpachi say so if those seem like things you like, you should vote for me. My top 3 lynch candidates are: 1. originalname 2. mig 3. kavdragon lol, i like this plan DrH. I will probably switch my vote for you. Most Pro-town post by far. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote DrH | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On April 12 2011 01:58 Barundar wrote: Frankly this early scum will have a pretty easy time spreading out, both vote-wise and post-wise. If you want to look for connections, try and look for people who simply ignore each others posts - scum rarely have to read their allies' posts or think about them, because they know the posts are just there to confuse town. Does this mean you think GM is scum now? What relevance does DrH's plan have to your opinion about GM? No, I don't think GM is scum, but I think the odds that DrH is pro-town is higher than GM at this point based on what I've read in the thread. Also, I'm very weary of kav and prot, which DrH agrees with. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On April 12 2011 02:13 Barundar wrote: Provide no reasons for thoughts on alignment: Check Confuse plans with alignments: Check You are moving up my scumlist I usually don't answer stuff like this because it's just trying to get people to react in a certain manner etc, but day 1 is always speculative. The only things we can go off so far is prot claiming. The other million posts in the thread are just useless "Lynch all lairs, lynch/dont lynch inactices, lynch lurkers" fluff which ver already wrote a good thread about and trying to argue whether it's good or not for a non town-aligned player to have a town favorable role (mayor) which is obviously idiotic without having to even argue against it. There are 2 types of people on day 1, spammers and lurkers. If you aren't spamming then, "omg you are a lurker you scum". I find that this analysis is usually wrong. Good scum will play the same as they normally do when they are scum or town, but it's the little things (like the words themselves) which give an indication whether a person is trying to act intentionally or just aggressively. This is why I believe that Kav is black, his posts seem "forced", but not forced enough when he was scum and he is playing safe, which is why I think he is black. I've been scum and town with kav before in the past and my read on him is based on those past games and while I think gmarshal is town, I think DrH is more town and is better suited for mayor at this point. I was a little weary of DrH only because he didn't believe me when I came up with a plan in mini-mafia (which ended up partially costing the game), but that is the past and I think he is a good person to lead town. Either him or gmarshal would be good candidates, going with DrH based on gut. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
As a rule, I believe that we should make sure we are never in a situation where the mayor (if he is scum) can snipe the vote and sac himself in order to win. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On April 12 2011 14:52 Coagulation wrote: I had a town read on marsh all game. Doch is the only one that made me skeptical with the lynch kav shit. I'm mostly in agreement with this, but it's because I had a anti-town read on kav, and the way he went down was very anti-town. I was considering switching the vote for gmarshal towards the end, but kav just screwed town. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On April 12 2011 15:02 bumatlarge wrote: Ok First off let me get this out of the way. Reading through, I was pretty certain Kav and kitaman were town. I felt they were obvious mayor picks over the competition. Dr. H is playing really aggressively, and I am not convinced that is that helpful for town after everyone including scum agreed that we need a leader-ish thing. Dr.H will lead to a lot of clashing, but whats done is done, so Im going to ignore that Kav was lynched, pretend it never happened. GMarshal and chaoser are scum. I will try to get the analysis done tonight, but I defintely won't be including recent events, as I'm not halfway through the thread. Prot should never have been considered for mayoral position since in no way shape or form is he ever going to fufill a leader/analysis role. Catastrophe waiting to happen. He could be scum, but let assasins hit him, it destroys the normal KP that would be happening, and it gives town such an advantage that it never would have had til later. Knowing who is throwing KP around gives very solid trails. Every PYP game will show you that. Im probably repeating what somebody already said, so you can ignore that. I am absolutely baffled at how you let GMarshal get pardoner, it blows my mind. Have you read his posts? The wishiest washiest "This is what this guy said, this is what I agree with and points on what happening BLAHBLAHBLAH" Nonsense posts. Haven't found a single useful one. Town meta my ass. He's scum. Chaoser same thing. You can't even start an arguement that they both ran for mayor. Go look at pages 15-25 and how many time chaoser switches his votes around. There is no reason to do any of that so early since mayor picks are usually whims anyway. It just causes confusion. Holy smokes batman, we have ourselves an analyzer. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
i = f(t) f(t) > f(t -1). Information i is a function of time that is always increasing. d = discoveries made in the information p(t)=p0 * d (town) p(t)=p0 / d + OMGUS (mafia) (p(t) is number of posts at time t, p0 is number of posts on day 1) As the game goes on, townies talk more and more and make more aggressive posts since they make more discoveries about the game. Mafia tend to talk less and less over time until they hit an "OMGUS" moment since nothing they say can add information (without costing them the game) to town. I'm going to put my theory to the test after this game. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On April 13 2011 13:41 chaoser wrote: Read up to Page 83 and I want to look at someone Darm: He says this and yet when GM bounced around a bit he still voted him Backtracks off Kav Very much against Prot being in office, says he is probably mafia. But then, even though this whole time he was against Prot being in office, all of a sudden he changes his stance and says DrH's plan was "the most pro-town of all" when previous he had said Prot was probably red. Why would you want Prot in office then, regardless of if he is red or black? Again says he is weary prot...and kav + Show Spoiler + On April 12 2011 02:42 darmousseh wrote: I usually don't answer stuff like this because it's just trying to get people to react in a certain manner etc, but day 1 is always speculative. The only things we can go off so far is prot claiming. The other million posts in the thread are just useless "Lynch all lairs, lynch/dont lynch inactices, lynch lurkers" fluff which ver already wrote a good thread about and trying to argue whether it's good or not for a non town-aligned player to have a town favorable role (mayor) which is obviously idiotic without having to even argue against it. There are 2 types of people on day 1, spammers and lurkers. If you aren't spamming then, "omg you are a lurker you scum". I find that this analysis is usually wrong. Good scum will play the same as they normally do when they are scum or town, but it's the little things (like the words themselves) which give an indication whether a person is trying to act intentionally or just aggressively. This is why I believe that Kav is black, his posts seem "forced", but not forced enough when he was scum and he is playing safe, which is why I think he is black. I've been scum and town with kav before in the past and my read on him is based on those past games and while I think gmarshal is town, I think DrH is more town and is better suited for mayor at this point. I was a little weary of DrH only because he didn't believe me when I came up with a plan in mini-mafia (which ended up partially costing the game), but that is the past and I think he is a good person to lead town. Either him or gmarshal would be good candidates, going with DrH based on gut. On April 12 2011 14:55 darmousseh wrote: I'm mostly in agreement with this, but it's because I had a anti-town read on kav, and the way he went down was very anti-town. I was considering switching the vote for gmarshal towards the end, but kav just screwed town. lol...look at all this wishy washy posting Lynch Darm or Lynch ON on Day 2. I read kav and he is usually a good townie so at first he was helpful. After a while, his posts seemed forceful and intentional rather than his normal style of posting. Gmarshal is probably town, but DrH is definitely town based on games I've played with him in the past. We already determined that the pardoner is a bad role for town, so let's make prot pardoner and then lynch him. Simple plan easy to execute, guaranteed black dead. Also, we will have plenty of time tomorrow to find out the scum. We have all sorts of detectives, trackers, watchers to help get town information and information is power. Suggesting to lynch someone 5 minutes before the next day even starts is terrible. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On April 13 2011 13:59 chaoser wrote: Really? Cause I remember Ver doing it to great effect The reason it's terrible is because let's say I die at night, all of a sudden people are suspicious of you. It's just bad, wait until day post at least. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
good luck town. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
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