EPTTL Mafia XXXVI
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Impervious
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Impervious
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On January 22 2011 01:05 Mr.Zergling wrote: woot Lol, jumped the gun a little bit there. | ||
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Impervious
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Impervious
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Impervious
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Right now, the only person I can really trust is myself, so myself as mayor would be ideal (at least from my point of view, however, it would also paint me as a target which would mean that it's likely that I'll die before the end of the game, so it's probably best that I don't have the position). But I doubt that is gonna happen (a number of reasons). So it's just gonna have to rely on luck for now, and hopefully we don't fuck ourselves over from the start. | ||
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Impervious
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Impervious
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On January 26 2011 15:15 LunarDestiny wrote: Take out Coag. It is futile to analysis him... Impervious was the most talkative person (maybe behind me) in Don't Lose Your Mafia. So something might not be right. He did only become talkative after day 1 though. Ya, but I had a read on someone at that point. I was somewhat right, too, if you recall. At the moment, I've got nothing, and I'm still not even 100% convinced that the mayor isn't mafia himself..... Just lurking so far. | ||
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Impervious
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Maybe this whole "black" theme is wrong? | ||
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Impervious
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On January 27 2011 09:35 Kavdragon wrote: Bum: I don't want to get totally sidetracked onto JUST analyzing you, but here are a few responses to your defense. I disagree with your statement that a good mafia player being mayor is better than a bad townie. Sure you might be able to catch a good player, but a bad townie wouldn't deliberately mislead the town. We would still get information, and the mafia wouldn't. That's pretty obvious to me. You argue that mafia couldn't pass up a role like mayor. You yourself didn't realize how powerful it was till late in the game. At the time you brought this up, there were only two candidates. If one was scum, and one wasn't, why would you not analyze them, and vote for the one you thought was town? Why don't you analyze us now? The fact that you voted for me, before switching to RoL shows clearly that you didn't have any opinion about which of us looked more town. That's EXACTLY the type of mindset mafia are in. They know who is, and is not a mafia, so they don't need to form opinions about how scummy people are, or are not. Also, that last statement was not directed at you specifically, it was a possibility of general mafia play this game. Thing is, if you're mafia, then you'd also know who else is mafia, and could pick someone who seems to be playing a little wierd, single them out, and lead a lynch. With this game's setup, since it's impossible for us to directly know if it was a mafia that was killed or not, or if the info from the census ability is actually legit, trying to single a non-mafia out for an obvious lynch right now is exactly what a mafia mayor would try to do. And a mafia candidate would be able to get more votes, on average, because they could get votes from other mafia players to secure themselves in the position. Tbh, I say we start lynching ppl who voted for Kavdragon, for that reason. I mean, it's technically possible that RoL is a mafia, and a bunch of people who voted for him were mafia (myself included, obviously), but, statistically speaking, if a candidate was a mafia, they'd be the one to win the election more often. At least, if the mafia actually played well. And, if neither were mafia, then it'd be purely random anyways (obviously, we'll try to look at people who seem more suspicious as primary targets, to increase our chances), and for the first couple of days, wouldn't be a bad move. At least until we can get some better information. Same deal if both were mafia (highly unlikely, but possible). Since I'm worried about our mayor being a mafia atm, I'd rather hear some other people's ideas as to what we should be doing. | ||
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Impervious
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On January 27 2011 10:00 bumatlarge wrote: But he is right, during that period of time of the RNG debacle, I didn't read into either of them, which is probably the scummiest thing I did. We shouldn't be lynching based on pure information of who did what, but mostly of who is saying what, and how they correspond to clues. I have a bad habit of relying on information over analysis and I suggest you shake that now, especially in this set-up. Kav is saying, we can't just say one of them is mafia without analysis, which I agree with. If you want to judge Kav or RoL, you should take at least as much consideration into what you analyze about them then what you get from information that inevitably leads to WIFOM at this stage. Look at it this way - I'll assume there's 4 mafia (possibly more, but this is a very conservative estimate). Without the mafia votes, it should break even, roughly (assuming both are going to get 50% of the votes). Kavdragon got 18 votes, RoL got 11. If Kavdragon is mafia, and had the support of all 3 other mafia members, that would mean that the town voted 15:11 in favor of Kavdragon. A little lopsided, but still close. He recieved a little under 60% of the votes, which is definitely reasonable, because both players had a strong platform. If RoL is mafia, and had support from the other 3 members, then the votes would have been 18:8. That's around 70% voting for Kavdragon. Much further off. If there are more mafia players, it would look closer to a 50/50 split for Kavdragon if he was mafia, yet look worse for RoL if he was mafia. At the moment, we don't have much to go by. One thing we do have is who voted for who (not everyone has been talkative, and it seems that it's backfired on the people who have). I do agree that we don't have enough to go by for a solid case aganst any one player, including our mayor and runner-up, based on what they've said so far in the game. Which is why I think that looking at it from a statistical point of view may be our best option at the moment. | ||
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Impervious
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On January 27 2011 12:51 Kavdragon wrote: [sarcasm]Ya, voting for the one who was losing is really a terrible practice..... Especially since the mafia can add a few concentrated votes on a specific candidate they'd like to see in that position..... They must have been voting for RoL with me.....[/sarcasm]Dear Impervious: WTF?: Unexplained vote on RoL This was followed by him lurking(self described, not just my opinion) till he made these posts: Maybe, but If I'm town I'd be doing the exact same thing: looking for a scummy person and leading the town through example by analyzing him. Wrong. A mafia mayor would try to mislead the town down an unfruitful path, not encourage them to do actual analysis. Most mafia stay away from analysis because it's hard to write an argument against someone you know is innocent. Kind-of-sort-of but not really. The town does not split the votes 50/50 between candidates. One will look like a better choice to most, and the majority of the town will vote for that one. While yes, a single player would get more votes as mafia given the exact same campain and posts, it's NOT true that on average mafia mayors get more votes than town mayors. WTF? You say that a mafia mayor would get more votes because mafia would vote for him. Then based off that, you say that we should lynch people who voted for me? You are calling me scum?( If I'm not scum, why would scum vote for me? If scum didn't vote for me, why lynch people who voted for me?) Lemme get this straight: You think that I'm mafia because i won. LOL. By your logic we should always lynch the mayor! Just because the mafia can stack a few votes on their candidate doesn't mean that they will win every time. Wait, so you're advocating that we RNG the lynch? We have 30 pages of information, and I don't see you using any of it. Lol, "worried". If you're so worried, why don't you analyze me! Put some money where your mouth is, and start actually contributing. (And don't say there's not enough information to analyze me, I've posted twice as much as almost anyone. There's TONS of material to pick from) Wrong. Why do you think that town would split 50/50? No, I don't think they're guaranteed to split 50/50. But, like I said, both were strong candidates, and a 60/40 split, roughly what happened, is an expected, albeit fringe, result, when you're dealing with 30 or so votes. Look, Analysis trumps statistics every time. If this game could be won with stats, it would be played with a calculator in math club. It's not. It's an analysis game. Agreed. But statistics can be used as a powerful analysis tool, and discounting one method of analysis is a foolish thing to do. Oh good lord, this makes me sad. no, no, and no. Who did this backfire against? Bum? He was certainly not the most vocal person. Is this an attempt to scare people into being quiet? Here, let me speak your language: Statistically speaking, more than half the players are town. This means that statistically speaking, if we lynch someone, they are town. You're not even getting the statistics right either. Show me why the town is likely to split 50/50. Statistically speaking, if we don't lynch someone on the first turn, it becomes more likely to lynch them on the next turn since they've killed some more of the town by then..... We've gotta try to get them asap..... Please, we have been extremely fortunet to have so much information to go on for the first day. The mafia will try to discourage us from doing analysis, saying "there's not enough information to go by" or "It's day one, nothing's happened". This is exactly the kind of complacency that gets the town killed. So far I'm the only person doing analysis. This too, is a sure road to failure. As RoL said, leaving the work of the town to one person will end in a loss for the town. I won't be right about every lynch, the town needs to work too. Clues are a good start, but we cannot win based off of clues. tbh, I'm kinda glad you called me out here. Hopefully it can get some discussion going. We need more than we've got..... | ||
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Impervious
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lol. Great reasoning there LunarDestiny. | ||
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Impervious
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On January 30 2011 11:59 darmousseh wrote: The only person with a reference to cannibalism I could find by anyone is this http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?topic_id=106991#14 But that is really a huge stretch. Frankly, if you've ever read through that, you'd find that it's actually more fucked up as the connection you're trying to make here is..... I definitely think there's something up with Jackal58 though. "Steel", "Black", and relatively inactive which may indicate that he was the one that the clues are about? | ||
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